1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Dec 2
  3. CHST @ MUR
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

Chicago State Cougars at Murray State Racers

CFSB Center · at Murray St
#362CHSTChicago St
@
#132MURMurray St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CHSTThis seasonMUR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MUR 86–64 · win probability MUR 97%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 150.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MUR has more of the edges

CHST 1, MUR 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
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MUR offense vs CHST defense
Offense 110th of 366 against a defense 339th, on the model’s ratings
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Shooting
Effective FG%: CHST 45.3 and allows 56.7; MUR 53.8 and allows 52.4
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Free throws
Free throw rate: CHST 30.0, MUR 38.6. Allowed: CHST 38.0, MUR 32.2
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CHST offense vs MUR defense
Offense 361st of 366 against a defense 197th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: CHST plays 66.0 a game (314th fastest), MUR 72.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points
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Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CHST 28.3%, MUR 32.6%. Defensive: CHST 65.0%, MUR 68.7%
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Turnovers
Turnover rate: CHST 15.7%, MUR 16.4%. Forced: CHST 20.1%, MUR 15.7%
Context
Schedule so far
CHST has played the 259th-hardest schedule, MUR the 165th. A record against a soft schedule means less
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Three-pointers
CHST hits 32.1% and allows 35.6%; MUR hits 35.0% and allows 36.2%. Threes are 30.9% and 44.8% of their shots
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Home court
MUR at home. This season: MUR 0-0 at home, CHST 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CHST 8%, MUR 28%. Transfers in: CHST 6, MUR 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MUR -21.4—
Total—150.1—
Projected score—CHST 64.4 · MUR 85.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMUR -12.6—
1H total70.2—
1H projected scoreCHST 28.8 · MUR 41.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Murray St has the better starters

Position by position: Chicago St 0, Murray St 5, even 0
Chicago StBetterMurray St
G M. Price TR6.4 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 3
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G C. Jones TR10 pts · 3 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61
G A. Carraway TR4.9 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3
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G R. Domon14.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95
G M. Olafioye TR3.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 2
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G M. Courbon4.6 pts · 2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 31
F B. Akanmu TR5.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 14
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F S. Tupuola TR6.3 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 55
F D. Loury TR4.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 1
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F B. Rogers TR6.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 67
Chicago StBetterMurray St
CHST offense361st of 366 · -14.2
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MUR defense197th of 366 · -4.8
CHST defense339th of 366 · -9.0
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MUR offense110th of 366 · -1.8
Backcourt-7.9 · 3 players
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Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-4.6 · 2 players
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Frontcourt+0.4 · 2 players
Bench-2.7 · 2 players
MURSmall
Bench-1.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestCHST betterMUR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Chicago St
Guards
M. Price18 min · TRA. Carraway16 min · TRM. Olafioye16 min · TRM. Robinson15 minJ. Pazon11 min · TRW. Lovings-WattsNew
Forwards
B. Akanmu21 min · TRD. Loury17 min · TRK. FomanNewL. Stephane DjiyaNewF. SheriffNewL. HodgesNew
Centers
B. KalonjiNew
Murray St
Guards
C. Jones26 min · TRR. Domon25 minM. Courbon16 minB. Shorter15 minK. Magwood11 min · TRB. ShtolzbergNew
Forwards
S. Tupuola25 min · TRB. Rogers18 min · TRP. NikolicNewJ. BoulefaaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CHSTMUR
Scoring
65.2 #348Points per game83.1 #26
0.99 #337Points per possession1.15 #56
66.0 #314Pace (possessions)72.3 #30
Shooting
45.3 #358Effective FG%53.8 #70
32.1 #2753-point %35.0 #120
30.9 #3413-point attempt rate44.8 #72
30.0 #311Free throw rate38.6 #86
Possessions
15.7 #114Turnover rate16.4 #160
28.3 #255Offensive rebound rate32.6 #100
11.7 #305Assists per game13.7 #165
Defense
76.5 #231Points allowed80.2 #323
1.16 #332Points allowed per possession1.11 #233
56.7 #354Opponent effective FG%52.4 #236
35.6 #290Opponent 3-point %36.2 #310
20.1 #21Turnovers forced15.7 #234
65.0 #339Defensive rebound rate68.7 #214
8.2 #33Steals per game5.9 #248
1.3 #365Blocks per game4.1 #69
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Chicago St

6-25 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Long Island75–79
  • L@ Wagner61–80
  • L@ Long Island56–73
  • Wvs C Connecticut70–51
  • Lvs FDU59–60

A week or more of rest.

Murray St

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Nevada75–89
  • Lvs UIC79–92
  • L@ Bradley78–87
  • Wvs Evansville88–75
  • L@ Illinois St61–78

A week or more of rest.