Boston University Terriers at Harvard Crimson: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 7:00 PM ETLavietes Pavilion · at Harvard

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Boston U and Harvard
BU	This season	HARV
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HARV 75–63 · win probability HARV 85%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 137.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HARV has more of the edges

BU 0, HARV 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

HARVBig

BU offense vs HARV defense

Offense 305th of 366 against a defense 94th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

BU has played the 296th-hardest schedule, HARV the 153rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

HARVBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BU 17.7%, HARV 17.5%. Forced: BU 13.0%, HARV 17.1%

HARVSmall

Three-pointers

BU hits 38.9% and allows 36.6%; HARV hits 34.7% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 43.8% and 40.2% of their shots

HARVSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BU 52%, HARV 81%. Transfers in: BU 1, HARV 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

HARVSmall

Home court

HARV at home. This season: HARV 0-0 at home, BU 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: BU 57.5 and allows 53.6; HARV 53.2 and allows 50.4

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BU 28.0%, HARV 26.8%. Defensive: BU 72.0%, HARV 71.8%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BU 31.4, HARV 25.7. Allowed: BU 30.5, HARV 26.6

Even

HARV offense vs BU defense

Offense 216th of 366 against a defense 201st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: BU plays 65.2 a game (340th fastest), HARV 64.7 (350th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HARV -12.1	—
Total	—	137.9	—
Projected score	—	BU 62.9 · HARV 75

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HARV -7.1	—
1H total	64.6	—
1H projected score	BU 28.7 · HARV 35.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BU WWWWL	17-16	52%	8-10	—
HARV WLLWL	14-14	50%	4-7	—

Venue/role: BU away; HARV home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BU UUOOU	19-14	58%	16-17
HARV UUUOU	10-18	36%	16-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
HARV	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Boston U

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ FOR	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs UNH	L82–88LO
Dec 8	@ JOES	No recent meeting

Harvard

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs FOR	L60–68LU
Dec 2	@ UNH	W86–75LO
Dec 4	@ DUKE	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BU 1–0 HARVBU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · BU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 22, 2025-26	HARV 74 vs BU 75	BU +4.5	BU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Boston U

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

W L W L L W L L L L L W L L W W L L W L L L W W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1652%

W L W L L W W L L L L W L L W W L L L W L L W W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1458%

O U O O U O O U O U U O O U O O O U O O U O U O O O U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NE	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@NU	L 52-76	+17.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 12	vsBRWN	W 90-77	-3.5	W +9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 15	vsMRMK	L 79-91	-2.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 18	@COLU	L 49-54	+4.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 22	vsHARV	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 25	@PSU	L 87-96	+14.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	@NKU	L 65-74	+7.5	L −1.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 6	@UNH	L 82-88	-5.5	L −11.5	134.5	O 170
Dec 10	vsME	L 59-69	-8.5	L −18.5	128.5	U 128
Dec 13	@DART	L 64-77	+2.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 141
Dec 21	vsUML	W 88-76	-5.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 31	@NAVY	L 77-82	+4.5	L −0.5	137.5	O 159
Jan 3	vsAMER	L 62-64	-1.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 126
Jan 7	@LAF	W 83-67	-1.5	W +14.5	142.5	O 150
Jan 10	vsARMY	W 100-91	-7.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 14	vsLEH	L 91-93	-4.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 184
Jan 17	@L-MD	L 57-74	-1.5	L −18.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 21	vsLAF	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 24	@COLG	L 79-80	+7.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 28	vsNAVY	L 50-58	+1.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 108
Jan 31	@BUCK	L 97-103	-1.5	L −7.5	138.5	O 200
Feb 2	@HC	W 72-64	-2.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsL-MD	W 78-69	-5.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 11	@ARMY	W 85-68	-2.5	W +14.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 14	vsBUCK	W 82-69	-5.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 151
Feb 16	vsCOLG	W 85-58	+2.5	W +29.5	145.5	U 143
Feb 22	@LEH	L 67-70	-2.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 25	vsHC	W 78-63	-8.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 28	@AMER	W 68-65	+3.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 133
Mar 5	vsAMER	W 75-73	-1.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 8	@NAVY	W 73-72	+6.5	W +7.5	136.5	O 145
Mar 11	@LEH	L 60-74	-2.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-75

+3.5

L 52-76

−6.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+9.5

MRMK

L 79-91

−14.5

COLU

L 49-54

−0.5

HARV

W 75-74

+5.5

PSU

L 87-96

+5.5

NKU

L 65-74

−1.5

UNH

L 82-88

−11.5

L 59-69

−18.5

DART

L 64-77

−10.5

UML

W 88-76

+6.5

NAVY

L 77-82

−0.5

AMER

L 62-64

−3.5

LAF

W 83-67

+14.5

ARMY

W 100-91

+1.5

LEH

L 91-93

−6.5

L-MD

L 57-74

−18.5

LAF

W 77-73

−0.5

COLG

L 79-80

+6.5

NAVY

L 50-58

−6.5

BUCK

L 97-103

−7.5

W 72-64

+5.5

L-MD

W 78-69

+3.5

ARMY

W 85-68

+14.5

BUCK

W 82-69

+7.5

COLG

W 85-58

+29.5

LEH

L 67-70

−5.5

W 78-63

+6.5

AMER

W 68-65

+6.5

AMER

W 75-73

+0.5

NAVY

W 73-72

+7.5

LEH

L 60-74

−16.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-75

+8.5

L 52-76

−8.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+37.5

MRMK

L 79-91

+34.5

COLU

L 49-54

−41.5

HARV

W 75-74

+12.5

PSU

L 87-96

+40.5

NKU

L 65-74

−4.5

UNH

L 82-88

+35.5

L 59-69

−0.5

DART

L 64-77

−3.5

UML

W 88-76

+18.5

NAVY

L 77-82

+21.5

AMER

L 62-64

−16.5

LAF

W 83-67

+7.5

ARMY

W 100-91

+50.5

LEH

L 91-93

+39.5

L-MD

L 57-74

−17.5

LAF

W 77-73

+4.5

COLG

L 79-80

+11.5

NAVY

L 50-58

−30.5

BUCK

L 97-103

+61.5

W 72-64

−3.5

L-MD

W 78-69

+1.5

ARMY

W 85-68

+12.5

BUCK

W 82-69

+13.5

COLG

W 85-58

−2.5

LEH

L 67-70

−4.5

W 78-63

−0.5

AMER

W 68-65

−7.5

AMER

W 75-73

+6.5

NAVY

W 73-72

+8.5

LEH

L 60-74

−4.5

over 19under 14avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Harvard

28 games played

Straight up

16-12

57% wins

Against the spread

14-14

50% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-18

36% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1257%

W L W W L L L W L L W L W L W W W L W W W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1450%

L L W W W L L L L L W W W L W W L L W W W L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-1836%

O U U U O O U U O O U U O U U O U O U U U U O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsUNH	W 86-75	-15.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsNE	L 60-77	-5.5	L −22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	@ARMY	W 75-52	-6.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 16	@MRST	W 56-54	+6.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 110
Nov 19	@PSU	L 80-84	+12.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsBU	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	@BC	L 60-73	+7.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsBRY	W 56-53	-7.5	L −4.5	137.5	U 109
Dec 3	@MASS	L 71-78	+5.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 149
Dec 6	@FUR	L 69-79	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 20	vsHC	W 81-53	-10.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 23	@SJU	L 59-85	+26.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 144
Dec 28	@COLG	W 78-69	+3.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 147
Jan 5	vsDART	L 68-76	-7.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 10	@COLU	W 79-54	+5.5	W +30.5	145.5	U 133
Jan 17	vsPRIN	W 87-80	-4.5	W +2.5	133.5	O 167
Jan 19	vsPENN	W 64-63	-5.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsCOR	L 79-86	-1.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 165
Jan 30	@BRWN	W 69-59	-1.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 128
Jan 31	@YALE	W 67-65	+11.5	W +13.5	141.5	U 132
Feb 7	@DART	W 71-58	-1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 129
Feb 13	vsBRWN	W 56-53	-7.5	L −4.5	131.5	U 109
Feb 14	vsYALE	L 75-76	+4.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 151
Feb 21	@COR	W 73-54	+4.5	W +23.5	155.5	U 127
Feb 27	@PRIN	W 58-56	-3.5	L −1.5	130.5	U 114
Feb 28	@PENN	L 61-64	+1.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 125
Mar 6	vsCOLU	W 81-71	-4.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 152
Mar 14	vsPENN	L 60-62	-3.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

−4.5

L 60-77

−22.5

ARMY

W 75-52

+16.5

MRST

W 56-54

+8.5

PSU

L 80-84

+8.5

L 74-75

−5.5

L 60-73

−5.5

BRY

W 56-53

−4.5

MASS

L 71-78

−1.5

FUR

L 69-79

−5.5

W 81-53

+17.5

SJU

L 59-85

+0.5

COLG

W 78-69

+12.5

DART

L 68-76

−15.5

COLU

W 79-54

+30.5

PRIN

W 87-80

+2.5

PENN

W 64-63

−4.5

COR

L 79-86

−8.5

BRWN

W 69-59

+8.5

YALE

W 67-65

+13.5

DART

W 71-58

+11.5

BRWN

W 56-53

−4.5

YALE

L 75-76

+3.5

COR

W 73-54

+23.5

PRIN

W 58-56

−1.5

PENN

L 61-64

−1.5

COLU

W 81-71

+5.5

PENN

L 60-62

−5.5

covered 14didn’t cover 14avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

+13.5

L 60-77

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-52

−19.5

MRST

W 56-54

−20.5

PSU

L 80-84

+21.5

L 74-75

+12.5

L 60-73

−5.5

BRY

W 56-53

−28.5

MASS

L 71-78

+5.5

FUR

L 69-79

+6.5

W 81-53

−2.5

SJU

L 59-85

−1.5

COLG

W 78-69

+5.5

DART

L 68-76

−4.5

COLU

W 79-54

−12.5

PRIN

W 87-80

+33.5

PENN

W 64-63

−23.5

COR

L 79-86

+4.5

BRWN

W 69-59

−4.5

YALE

W 67-65

−9.5

DART

W 71-58

−11.5

BRWN

W 56-53

−22.5

YALE

L 75-76

+12.5

COR

W 73-54

−28.5

PRIN

W 58-56

−16.5

PENN

L 61-64

−13.5

COLU

W 81-71

+15.5

PENN

L 60-62

−17.5

over 10under 18avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Harvard has the better starters

Position by position: Boston U 0, Harvard 4, even 1

Boston UBetterHarvard

G A. Abdullah8.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 13

HARVBig

G T. Barbour13.6 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74

G D. Tisinger6.1 pts · 2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 37

HARVBig

G R. Hinton17 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 88

G K. Alexander1 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G B. Eisendrath5.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 16

F S. Hughes9.2 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10

HARVSmall

G A. Hunt6.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

F Q. Nielsen1 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 5

HARVSmall

G F. Mannino1.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 36

Boston UBetterHarvard

BU offense305th of 366 · -9.5

HARVBig

HARV defense94th of 366 · -0.4

BU defense201st of 366 · -5.0

Even

HARV offense216th of 366 · -6.6

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

HARVBig

Backcourt-0.7 · 5 players

Frontcourt-4.3 · 2 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-0.1 · 3 players

BUSmall

Bench-2.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBU betterHARV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Boston U

Guards

A. Abdullah30 minD. Tisinger20 minK. Alexander11 minP. Carr2 minA. ZakheimNewJ. TerryNew

Forwards

S. Hughes30 minQ. Nielsen8 minM. Oberti4 min · TRA. Bhesania3 minM. BaptisteNewD. LloydNew

Harvard

Guards

T. Barbour34 minR. Hinton34 minB. Eisendrath29 minA. Hunt23 minF. Mannino9 minX. Nesbitt5 min

Forwards

R. Sullivan7 minK. Parrish6 minL. Ace-Nasteski6 minA. Dror2 minT. BattiesNewA. TouomouNew

Centers

J. AdigunNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BU74.5 #176

HARV69.8 #290

Points per possession

BU1.14 #72

HARV1.08 #184

Pace (possessions)

BU65.2 #340

HARV64.7 #350

Shooting

Effective FG%

BU57.5 #11

HARV53.2 #94

3-point %

BU38.9 #5

HARV34.7 #135

3-point attempt rate

BU43.8 #92

HARV40.2 #167

Free throw rate

BU31.4 #270

HARV25.7 #359

Possessions

Turnover rate

BU17.7 #252

HARV17.5 #236

Offensive rebound rate

BU28.0 #269

HARV26.8 #302

Assists per game

BU14.2 #131

HARV14.2 #129

Defense

Points allowed

BU74.5 #174

HARV67.3 #22

Points allowed per possession

BU1.14 #310

HARV1.04 #70

Opponent effective FG%

BU53.6 #288

HARV50.4 #122

Opponent 3-point %

BU36.6 #330

HARV32.6 #94

Turnovers forced

BU13.0 #353

HARV17.1 #147

Defensive rebound rate

BU72.0 #65

HARV71.8 #69

Steals per game

BU4.7 #346

HARV7.1 #111

Blocks per game

BU3.3 #181

HARV3.7 #109

BU		HARV
Scoring
74.5 #176	Points per game	69.8 #290
1.14 #72	Points per possession	1.08 #184
65.2 #340	Pace (possessions)	64.7 #350
Shooting
57.5 #11	Effective FG%	53.2 #94
38.9 #5	3-point %	34.7 #135
43.8 #92	3-point attempt rate	40.2 #167
31.4 #270	Free throw rate	25.7 #359
Possessions
17.7 #252	Turnover rate	17.5 #236
28.0 #269	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #302
14.2 #131	Assists per game	14.2 #129
Defense
74.5 #174	Points allowed	67.3 #22
1.14 #310	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #70
53.6 #288	Opponent effective FG%	50.4 #122
36.6 #330	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #94
13.0 #353	Turnovers forced	17.1 #147
72.0 #65	Defensive rebound rate	71.8 #69
4.7 #346	Steals per game	7.1 #111
3.3 #181	Blocks per game	3.7 #109

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Boston U

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Lehigh60–74
W@ Navy73–72
Wvs American75–73
W@ American68–65
Wvs Holy Cross78–63

A week or more of rest.

Harvard

16-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-5 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Penn60–62
Wvs Columbia81–71
L@ Penn61–64
W@ Princeton58–56
W@ Cornell73–54

A week or more of rest.

Boston University Terriers at Harvard Crimson

What could decide it: HARV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Boston U

Harvard

Harvard has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Boston U

Harvard