1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. STET @ USF
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

Stetson Hatters at South Florida Bulls

Yuengling Center · at South Florida
#303STETStetson
@
#84USFSouth Florida
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
STETThis seasonUSF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USF 89–67 · win probability USF 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 156.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USF has more of the edges

STET 2, USF 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USFBig
USF offense vs STET defense
Offense 59th of 366 against a defense 328th, on the model’s ratings
USFBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: STET 18.2%, USF 15.1%. Forced: STET 15.1%, USF 19.1%
USFBig
STET offense vs USF defense
Offense 273rd of 366 against a defense 121st, on the model’s ratings
USFBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: STET 26.6%, USF 38.1%. Defensive: STET 68.2%, USF 68.1%
Context
Schedule so far
STET has played the 220th-hardest schedule, USF the 89th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: STET plays 68.2 a game (221st fastest), USF 74.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points
STETSmall
Three-pointers
STET hits 36.0% and allows 34.5%; USF hits 32.5% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 44.8% and 43.8% of their shots
USFSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: STET 53.1 and allows 55.2; USF 50.6 and allows 48.8
STETSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: STET 51%, USF 14%. Transfers in: STET 3, USF 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
USFSmall
Home court
USF at home. This season: USF 0-0 at home, STET 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: STET 32.5, USF 40.4. Allowed: STET 30.4, USF 39.0
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USF -21.7—
Total—156.3—
Projected score—STET 67.3 · USF 89

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSF -12.8—
1H total73.0—
1H projected scoreSTET 30.1 · USF 42.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

South Florida has the better starters

Position by position: Stetson 1, South Florida 3, even 1
StetsonBetterSouth Florida
G D. Macgregor4.8 pts · 2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 26
USFBig
G S. Wilson TR17.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.5 ast Score 79
F C. Kuhl13.2 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 87
STETSmall
G A. Dancler TR15.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 72
F F. Sheridan7.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 21
USFBig
G J. Omojafo11 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 80
F M. Myles TR7.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 66
Even
G A. Shoshkikj TR10.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 73
F A. Doyle5.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 9
USFSmall
F R. Goods TR7.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2 ast Score 41
StetsonBetterSouth Florida
STET offense273rd of 366 · -8.3
USFBig
USF defense121st of 366 · -2.1
STET defense328th of 366 · -8.5
USFBig
USF offense59th of 366 · +2.7
Backcourt-1.4 · 1 player
USFBig
Backcourt+4.4 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.9 · 4 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player
Bench-5.1 · 5 players
USFBig
Bench-0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSTET betterUSF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Stetson
Guards
D. Macgregor19 minS. Morgan14 minT. Sucatzky13 min · TRM. McGowan2 minI. Jones2 minB. Gladieux2 min
Forwards
C. Kuhl24 minF. Sheridan23 minM. Myles21 min · TRA. Doyle17 minM. Entenmann12 min · TRJ. Boyomo KeediNew
South Florida
Guards
S. Wilson37 min · TRA. Dancler34 min · TRJ. Omojafo28 minA. Shoshkikj26 min · TRC. Davis18 min · TRM. James11 min · TR
Forwards
R. Goods25 min · TRG. Johnson23 min · TRJ. Lewis23 min · TRZ. High9 min · TRR. StevensonNewJ. FeldhausNew
Centers
T. Diawara3 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
STETUSF
Scoring
71.9 #246Points per game86.8 #6
1.06 #231Points per possession1.17 #42
68.2 #221Pace (possessions)74.4 #9
Shooting
53.1 #96Effective FG%50.6 #209
36.0 #593-point %32.5 #255
44.8 #753-point attempt rate43.8 #93
32.5 #250Free throw rate40.4 #55
Possessions
18.2 #284Turnover rate15.1 #73
26.6 #308Offensive rebound rate38.1 #7
14.7 #105Assists per game16.8 #28
Defense
79.9 #315Points allowed76.5 #230
1.17 #339Points allowed per possession1.03 #54
55.2 #338Opponent effective FG%48.8 #58
34.5 #223Opponent 3-point %34.5 #218
15.1 #278Turnovers forced19.1 #42
68.2 #250Defensive rebound rate68.1 #252
6.2 #213Steals per game9.0 #8
2.0 #344Blocks per game4.0 #72
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Stetson

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Austin Peay60–69
  • Wvs E Kentucky92–76
  • Wvs FGCU78–63
  • L@ Jacksonville85–89
  • Wvs North Florida76–71

A week or more of rest.

South Florida

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisville79–83
  • Wvs Wichita St70–55
  • Wvs Charlotte86–64
  • Wvs Charlotte83–60
  • W@ Memphis96–89

A week or more of rest.