Green Bay Phoenix at Kansas City Roos: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 8:00 PM ETSwinney Center · at Kansas City

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Green Bay and Kansas City
GB	This season	KC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GB 77–70 · win probability GB 71%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GB has more of the edges

GB 7, KC 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GBBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: GB 54.9 and allows 53.6; KC 45.8 and allows 56.3

GBBig

Three-pointers

GB hits 36.4% and allows 36.3%; KC hits 28.4% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 37.3% and 36.8% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: GB plays 65.2 a game (339th fastest), KC 71.8 (45th). Faster games mean more points

GBBig

GB offense vs KC defense

Offense 219th of 366 against a defense 335th, on the model’s ratings

GBSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GB 25.1%, KC 26.4%. Defensive: GB 70.4%, KC 64.1%

GBSmall

KC offense vs GB defense

Offense 321st of 366 against a defense 227th, on the model’s ratings

GBSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GB 40%, KC 0%. Transfers in: GB 3, KC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

GBSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: GB 41.6, KC 29.2. Allowed: GB 37.4, KC 31.4

KCSmall

Home court

KC at home. This season: KC 0-0 at home, GB 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

GB has played the 255th-hardest schedule, KC the 235th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GB 15.9%, KC 18.2%. Forced: GB 13.2%, KC 16.4%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GB -6.5	—
Total	—	147.3	—
Projected score	—	GB 76.9 · KC 70.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GB -4.0	—
1H total	68.9	—
1H projected score	GB 36.4 · KC 32.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB WLWWL	19-12	61%	8-7	—
KC LLLLL	5-23	18%	1-10	—

Venue/role: GB away; KC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UUOUO	16-15	52%	16-15
KC OOUOU	16-12	57%	1-27

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
KC	0-10 0%	0-10 0%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Green Bay

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs UND	No recent meeting
Dec 3	vs NIU	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs WRST	L75–83LO

Kansas City

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs SEMO	L59–80LO
Dec 5	vs DUQ	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs DEN	L61–69LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

GB 1–1 KCSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · GB 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 10, 2022-23	KC 64 @ GB 70	GB +6.5	GB W
Dec 10, 2021-22	GB 55 @ KC 64	KC -8	KC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Green Bay

31 games played

Straight up

16-15

52% wins

Against the spread

19-12

61% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1552%

L L L L L W W L L W W L W W W W W L L W L L W W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1261%

L L L W W W W L L W W L W W W W W L W W L L W W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1552%

U O U U U O O O O U U O U O U O O U O U O O O U U O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@KU	L 51-94	+30.5	L −12.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 7	@BUF	L 76-83	+3.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 159
Nov 13	@STMN	L 61-80	+13.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@MINN	L 65-72	+25.5	W +18.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 21	vsYALE	L 67-73	+17.5	W +11.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 22	vsMASS	W 79-75	+5.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 154
Nov 24	vsIONA	W 80-75	+5.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 155
Dec 4	vsRMU	L 78-80	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 158
Dec 7	@WRST	L 58-86	+6.5	L −21.5	142.5	O 144
Dec 11	@IUIN	W 85-75	+3.5	W +13.5	165.5	U 160
Dec 17	vsUCSB	W 67-64	+7.5	W +10.5	140.5	U 131
Dec 23	@CAM	L 79-102	+5.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 181
Jan 1	@PFW	W 72-54	+8.5	W +26.5	145.5	U 126
Jan 5	vsMILW	W 79-76	+3.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 155
Jan 9	vsIUIN	W 75-59	-6.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 134
Jan 11	vsNKU	W 80-78	+4.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 15	@CLE	W 88-73	-3.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 18	vsOAK	L 63-88	+4.5	L −20.5	153.5	U 151
Jan 22	@YSU	L 81-88	+7.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 24	@RMU	W 71-67	+6.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 138
Jan 30	vsCLE	L 82-89	-7.5	L −14.5	150.5	O 171
Feb 1	vsWRST	L 75-83	+3.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 158
Feb 4	@NKU	W 87-84	+7.5	W +10.5	149.5	O 171
Feb 7	vsDETM	W 76-63	-3.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 12	vsPFW	W 76-59	+1.5	W +18.5	144.5	U 135
Feb 15	@MILW	L 72-75	+2.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 20	@OAK	W 73-68	+6.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 141
Feb 22	@DETM	L 70-74	+1.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 144
Feb 28	vsYSU	W 85-63	-1.5	W +20.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 3	vsPFW	W 64-56	-3.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 120
Mar 8	vsNKU	L 76-96	+3.5	L −16.5	146.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-94

−12.5

BUF

L 76-83

−3.5

STMN

L 61-80

−5.5

MINN

L 65-72

+18.5

YALE

L 67-73

+11.5

MASS

W 79-75

+9.5

IONA

W 80-75

+10.5

RMU

L 78-80

−0.5

WRST

L 58-86

−21.5

IUIN

W 85-75

+13.5

UCSB

W 67-64

+10.5

CAM

L 79-102

−17.5

PFW

W 72-54

+26.5

MILW

W 79-76

+6.5

IUIN

W 75-59

+9.5

NKU

W 80-78

+6.5

CLE

W 88-73

+11.5

OAK

L 63-88

−20.5

YSU

L 81-88

+0.5

RMU

W 71-67

+10.5

CLE

L 82-89

−14.5

WRST

L 75-83

−4.5

NKU

W 87-84

+10.5

DETM

W 76-63

+9.5

PFW

W 76-59

+18.5

MILW

L 72-75

−0.5

OAK

W 73-68

+11.5

DETM

L 70-74

−2.5

YSU

W 85-63

+20.5

PFW

W 64-56

+4.5

NKU

L 76-96

−16.5

covered 19didn’t cover 12avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-94

−7.5

BUF

L 76-83

+11.5

STMN

L 61-80

−9.5

MINN

L 65-72

−9.5

YALE

L 67-73

−8.5

MASS

W 79-75

+7.5

IONA

W 80-75

+4.5

RMU

L 78-80

+17.5

WRST

L 58-86

+1.5

IUIN

W 85-75

−5.5

UCSB

W 67-64

−9.5

CAM

L 79-102

+35.5

PFW

W 72-54

−19.5

MILW

W 79-76

+10.5

IUIN

W 75-59

−22.5

NKU

W 80-78

+13.5

CLE

W 88-73

+10.5

OAK

L 63-88

−2.5

YSU

L 81-88

+29.5

RMU

W 71-67

−4.5

CLE

L 82-89

+20.5

WRST

L 75-83

+13.5

NKU

W 87-84

+21.5

DETM

W 76-63

−10.5

PFW

W 76-59

−9.5

MILW

L 72-75

+1.5

OAK

W 73-68

−12.5

DETM

L 70-74

−3.5

YSU

W 85-63

+6.5

PFW

W 64-56

−25.5

NKU

L 76-96

+25.5

over 16under 15avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kansas City

28 games played

Straight up

1-27

4% wins

Against the spread

5-23

18% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-12

57% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-274%

L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-2318%

L L W L L L L L W W W L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1257%

O O U U U U U O U O O O U O O O O U U O O U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SIU	L 78-101	+12.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 179
Nov 11	vsIONA	L 91-105	+4.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 196
Nov 15	@TEX	L 55-71	+31.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 126
Nov 19	@TCU	L 45-81	+23.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 24	@LIN	L 67-80	+4.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 29	@WEB	L 61-82	+10.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsIDST	L 59-68	+5.5	L −3.5	137.5	U 127
Dec 6	@EWU	L 66-90	+9.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsWEB	L 60-64	+7.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 16	@OU	L 67-89	+30.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 18	@OKST	L 79-91	+27.5	W +15.5	161.5	O 170
Dec 31	@DEN	L 74-87	+9.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 161
Jan 3	@OMA	W 73-66	+8.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsNDSU	L 73-97	+9.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsUND	L 79-81	-1.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 15	@SDAK	L 83-99	+7.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 182
Jan 17	@SDST	L 62-90	+13.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 152
Jan 24	vsOMA	L 60-77	+4.5	L −12.5	148.5	U 137
Jan 28	vsDEN	L 61-69	+3.5	L −4.5	161.5	U 130
Feb 1	@STMN	L 64-99	+17.5	L −17.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 4	vsSDAK	L 75-82	+2.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 157
Feb 12	@ORU	L 60-69	+6.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 129
Feb 14	vsSTMN	L 64-104	+12.5	L −27.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 19	@UND	L 70-85	+9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 155
Feb 21	@NDSU	L 59-95	+19.5	L −16.5	148.5	O 154
Feb 26	vsSDST	L 59-73	+12.5	L −1.5	152.5	U 132
Feb 28	vsORU	L 70-94	+3.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 164
Mar 4	vsORU	L 62-84	+8.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

−10.5

IONA

L 91-105

−9.5

TEX

L 55-71

+15.5

TCU

L 45-81

−12.5

LIN

L 67-80

−8.5

WEB

L 61-82

−10.5

IDST

L 59-68

−3.5

EWU

L 66-90

−14.5

WEB

L 60-64

+3.5

L 67-89

+8.5

OKST

L 79-91

+15.5

DEN

L 74-87

−3.5

OMA

W 73-66

+15.5

NDSU

L 73-97

−14.5

UND

L 79-81

−3.5

SDAK

L 83-99

−8.5

SDST

L 62-90

−14.5

OMA

L 60-77

−12.5

DEN

L 61-69

−4.5

STMN

L 64-99

−17.5

SDAK

L 75-82

−4.5

ORU

L 60-69

−2.5

STMN

L 64-104

−27.5

UND

L 70-85

−5.5

NDSU

L 59-95

−16.5

SDST

L 59-73

−1.5

ORU

L 70-94

−20.5

ORU

L 62-84

−13.5

covered 5didn’t cover 23avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

+37.5

IONA

L 91-105

+39.5

TEX

L 55-71

−33.5

TCU

L 45-81

−24.5

LIN

L 67-80

−5.5

WEB

L 61-82

−12.5

IDST

L 59-68

−10.5

EWU

L 66-90

+4.5

WEB

L 60-64

−26.5

L 67-89

+2.5

OKST

L 79-91

+8.5

DEN

L 74-87

+4.5

OMA

W 73-66

−9.5

NDSU

L 73-97

+25.5

UND

L 79-81

+13.5

SDAK

L 83-99

+25.5

SDST

L 62-90

+0.5

OMA

L 60-77

−11.5

DEN

L 61-69

−31.5

STMN

L 64-99

+11.5

SDAK

L 75-82

+0.5

ORU

L 60-69

−21.5

STMN

L 64-104

+13.5

UND

L 70-85

+4.5

NDSU

L 59-95

+5.5

SDST

L 59-73

−20.5

ORU

L 70-94

+14.5

ORU

L 62-84

−3.5

over 16under 12avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Green Bay has the better starters

Position by position: Green Bay 2, Kansas City 1, even 2

Green BayBetterKansas City

G O. Lovejoy TR16 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 85

GBBig

G C. Daughtery TR10 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 45

G L. Thomas4.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 31

Even

G J. Smith TR9.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 3 ast Score 43

G M. Wrecke2.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.2 ast Score 8

KCSmall

G M. Samar TR4.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 28

F M. Hall13.7 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 49

No call

F S. Hartmann TR8.2 pts · 5 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

F A. Hadaway TR14.5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 71

GBBig

F A. Diop TR5.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 29

Green BayBetterKansas City

GB offense219th of 366 · -6.7

GBSmall

KC defense335th of 366 · -8.8

GB defense227th of 366 · -6.0

GBSmall

KC offense321st of 366 · -10.5

Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players

GBSmall

Backcourt-3.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+0.7 · 2 players

GBSmall

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

Bench-3.9 · 4 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestGB betterKC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Green Bay

Guards

O. Lovejoy31 min · TRL. Thomas12 minM. Wrecke11 minK. Van Kauwenberg10 minB. Fitzgerald1 minS. ErhartNew

Forwards

M. Hall35 minA. Hadaway33 min · TRI. Sutherland10 min · TRH. GruetzmacherNewT. ColnaricNew

Centers

M. Cicic11 min

Kansas City

Guards

C. Daughtery27 min · TRJ. Smith25 min · TRM. Samar16 min · TRE. MoskowitzNewD. JacksonNewC. LoveNew

Forwards

S. Hartmann24 min · TRA. Diop19 min · TRR. ButirinsNewJ. SickingNewA. BakhtadzeNewM. Bruce-McCrommonNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GB73.9 #201

KC67.0 #334

Points per possession

GB1.13 #83

KC0.93 #361

Pace (possessions)

GB65.2 #339

KC71.8 #45

Shooting

Effective FG%

GB54.9 #41

KC45.8 #352

3-point %

GB36.4 #42

KC28.4 #360

3-point attempt rate

GB37.3 #224

KC36.8 #235

Free throw rate

GB41.6 #36

KC29.2 #330

Possessions

Turnover rate

GB15.9 #133

KC18.2 #282

Offensive rebound rate

GB25.1 #339

KC26.4 #314

Assists per game

GB13.7 #172

KC11.3 #324

Defense

Points allowed

GB75.9 #215

KC84.8 #359

Points allowed per possession

GB1.17 #338

KC1.18 #348

Opponent effective FG%

GB53.6 #287

KC56.3 #348

Opponent 3-point %

GB36.3 #316

KC37.5 #350

Turnovers forced

GB13.2 #350

KC16.4 #193

Defensive rebound rate

GB70.4 #140

KC64.1 #353

Steals per game

GB4.2 #361

KC6.4 #192

Blocks per game

GB2.7 #282

KC3.1 #195

GB		KC
Scoring
73.9 #201	Points per game	67.0 #334
1.13 #83	Points per possession	0.93 #361
65.2 #339	Pace (possessions)	71.8 #45
Shooting
54.9 #41	Effective FG%	45.8 #352
36.4 #42	3-point %	28.4 #360
37.3 #224	3-point attempt rate	36.8 #235
41.6 #36	Free throw rate	29.2 #330
Possessions
15.9 #133	Turnover rate	18.2 #282
25.1 #339	Offensive rebound rate	26.4 #314
13.7 #172	Assists per game	11.3 #324
Defense
75.9 #215	Points allowed	84.8 #359
1.17 #338	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #348
53.6 #287	Opponent effective FG%	56.3 #348
36.3 #316	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #350
13.2 #350	Turnovers forced	16.4 #193
70.4 #140	Defensive rebound rate	64.1 #353
4.2 #361	Steals per game	6.4 #192
2.7 #282	Blocks per game	3.1 #195

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Green Bay

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs N Kentucky76–96
Wvs Purdue FW64–56
Wvs Youngstown St85–63
L@ Detroit Mercy70–74
W@ Oakland73–68

A week or more of rest.

Kansas City

1-27 in 2025-26 overall · 1-16 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oral Roberts62–84
Lvs Oral Roberts70–94
Lvs S Dakota St59–73
L@ N Dakota St59–95
L@ North Dakota70–85

A week or more of rest.

Green Bay Phoenix at Kansas City Roos

What could decide it: GB has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Green Bay

Kansas City

Green Bay has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Green Bay

Kansas City