1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. LIP @ AUB
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

Lipscomb Bisons at Auburn Tigers

Neville Arena · at Auburn
#214LIPLipscomb
@
#21AUBAuburn
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LIPThis seasonAUB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AUB 91–66 · win probability AUB 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 157.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: AUB has more of the edges

LIP 1, AUB 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
LIP has played the 267th-hardest schedule, AUB the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less
AUBBig
AUB offense vs LIP defense
Offense 16th of 366 against a defense 226th, on the model’s ratings
AUBBig
LIP offense vs AUB defense
Offense 191st of 366 against a defense 41st, on the model’s ratings
AUBBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LIP 25.8%, AUB 37.0%. Defensive: LIP 69.8%, AUB 69.1%
AUBBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: LIP 26.0, AUB 43.2. Allowed: LIP 29.0, AUB 34.3
LIPSmall
Three-pointers
LIP hits 35.7% and allows 34.3%; AUB hits 34.4% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 47.9% and 40.2% of their shots
AUBSmall
Home court
AUB at home. This season: AUB 0-0 at home, LIP 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: LIP 54.1 and allows 53.2; AUB 53.0 and allows 53.7
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: LIP plays 70.8 a game (83rd fastest), AUB 69.7 (136th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LIP 44%, AUB 38%. Transfers in: LIP 2, AUB 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LIP 16.0%, AUB 14.6%. Forced: LIP 17.7%, AUB 16.3%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—AUB -25.7—
Total—157.1—
Projected score—LIP 65.7 · AUB 91.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadAUB -15.1—
1H total73.4—
1H projected scoreLIP 29.1 · AUB 44.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Auburn has the better starters

Position by position: Lipscomb 0, Auburn 3, even 2
LipscombBetterAuburn
G T. Simpkins TR12.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79
Even
G T. Pettiford15.4 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 88
G M. Esmeraldo9.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 6.9 ast Score 81
Even
G K. Overton14.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 90
F T. Sargiunas9.9 pts · 2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 28
AUBBig
G K. King TR7.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 83
F O. Ashkenazi2.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 3
AUBBig
F T. Dowd TR14.5 pts · 10.3 reb · 2 ast Score 83
F T. Byrne TR3.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 4
AUBBig
F A. Olsen TR17 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 66
LipscombBetterAuburn
LIP offense191st of 366 · -5.9
AUBBig
AUB defense41st of 366 · +2.8
LIP defense226th of 366 · -6.0
AUBBig
AUB offense16th of 366 · +8.7
Backcourt+3.0 · 2 players
AUBBig
Backcourt+6.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt-6.7 · 3 players
AUBBig
Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players
Bench-1.1 · 1 player
AUBBig
Bench+3.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestLIP betterAUB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Lipscomb
Guards
T. Simpkins32 min · TRM. Esmeraldo31 minZ. WellsNewV. VisnjicNewH. TidareNewK. QuinnNew
Forwards
T. Sargiunas24 minO. Ashkenazi20 minT. Byrne16 min · TRK. Okpara13 minL. JackNewD. MartinNew
Auburn
Guards
T. Pettiford32 minK. Overton32 minK. King19 min · TRB. Muschalek6 minS. Walker5 minD. Cardwell1 min
Forwards
T. Dowd37 min · TRA. Olsen37 min · TRO. Freeman12 min · TRJ. BowmanNew
Centers
B. Oboye18 min · TRN. NgoyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LIPAUB
Scoring
77.6 #104Points per game83.0 #27
1.10 #142Points per possession1.19 #19
70.8 #83Pace (possessions)69.7 #136
Shooting
54.1 #67Effective FG%53.0 #104
35.7 #753-point %34.4 #147
47.9 #243-point attempt rate40.2 #166
26.0 #357Free throw rate43.2 #19
Possessions
16.0 #142Turnover rate14.6 #45
25.8 #327Offensive rebound rate37.0 #15
17.2 #19Assists per game13.2 #198
Defense
77.0 #242Points allowed78.8 #287
1.09 #187Points allowed per possession1.13 #281
53.2 #273Opponent effective FG%53.7 #291
34.3 #207Opponent 3-point %36.7 #336
17.7 #113Turnovers forced16.3 #201
69.8 #171Defensive rebound rate69.1 #196
6.8 #141Steals per game7.5 #83
2.6 #291Blocks per game4.1 #63
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lipscomb

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs FGCU53–77
  • W@ E Kentucky80–77
  • L@ West Georgia78–84
  • Wvs North Alabama73–51
  • W@ Bellarmine75–72

A week or more of rest.

Auburn

22-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs Tulsa92–86
  • Wvs Illinois St88–66
  • Wvs Nevada75–69
  • Wvs Seattle U91–85
  • Wvs South Alabama78–67

A week or more of rest.