Drexel Dragons at Pennsylvania Quakers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 8:00 PM ETThe Palestra · at Penn

#137PENNPenn

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Drexel and Penn
DREX	This season	PENN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PENN 76–66 · win probability PENN 82%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PENN has more of the edges

DREX 1, PENN 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PENNBig

DREX offense vs PENN defense

Offense 323rd of 366 against a defense 142nd, on the model’s ratings

PENNBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DREX 19.1%, PENN 15.4%. Forced: DREX 16.4%, PENN 17.3%

PENNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DREX 31.6, PENN 33.9. Allowed: DREX 35.4, PENN 27.5

PENNSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DREX 24%, PENN 83%. Transfers in: DREX 2, PENN 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

DREXSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DREX 50.6 and allows 47.1; PENN 50.4 and allows 52.1

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: DREX plays 65.2 a game (341st fastest), PENN 69.3 (158th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

DREX has played the 199th-hardest schedule, PENN the 126th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PENNSmall

Home court

PENN at home. This season: PENN 0-0 at home, DREX 0-0 away

Even

PENN offense vs DREX defense

Offense 138th of 366 against a defense 175th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DREX 31.2%, PENN 30.0%. Defensive: DREX 69.0%, PENN 68.7%

Even

Three-pointers

DREX hits 35.5% and allows 30.3%; PENN hits 38.3% and allows 32.2%. Threes are 40.0% and 35.4% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PENN -10.3	—
Total	—	141.5	—
Projected score	—	DREX 65.6 · PENN 75.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PENN -6.0	—
1H total	66.2	—
1H projected score	DREX 30.1 · PENN 36.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DREX WWLWL	19-13	59%	7-7	—
PENN WWWWL	20-9	69%	9-4	—

Venue/role: DREX away; PENN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DREX UUUOU	14-18	44%	16-16
PENN UUUOO	8-21	28%	17-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DREX	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
PENN	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Drexel

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ MSM	W75–67WO
Dec 1	@ ODU	W75–71WO
Dec 13	@ NJIT	W75–43WU

Penn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs TOW	L74–80LO
Nov 28	vs BUCK	W80–61WU
Dec 7	@ LAF	W74–72LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DREX 1–2 PENNPENN leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · DREX 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 21, 2025-26	PENN 84 @ DREX 68	DREX -4.5	PENN W
Dec 7, 2024-25	PENN 47 vs DREX 60	DREX -2.5	DREX W
Nov 15, 2022-23	PENN 64 @ DREX 59	DREX +2.5	PENN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Drexel

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

L L L W L W W L L L W W L L L W W W L W W W L W L L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1359%

L L L W L W L W L L W W W W W W W W W W W L L W L L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O U U U O U O O O O O U U O U U U U O U U U O O O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@JOES	L 65-76	+9.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 11	@COLG	L 83-90	+3.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsSYR	L 50-80	+11.5	L −18.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsNJIT	W 75-43	-13.5	W +18.5	138.5	U 118
Nov 21	vsPENN	L 68-84	-4.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 152
Nov 23	vsODU	W 75-71	-3.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 25	@MORG	W 71-66	-5.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 137
Dec 3	@AMER	L 73-75	+4.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 6	@LAS	L 64-69	-1.5	L −6.5	129.5	O 133
Dec 16	vsHOW	L 66-74	-6.5	L −14.5	138.5	O 140
Dec 19	vsMSM	W 75-67	-4.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 21	vsME	W 74-56	-10.5	W +7.5	129.5	O 130
Dec 29	@COFC	L 63-72	+9.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 135
Dec 31	@UNCW	L 53-65	+12.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 118
Jan 3	vsHOF	L 67-70	+4.5	W +1.5	131.5	O 137
Jan 8	vsSTBK	W 56-37	-5.5	W +13.5	132.5	U 93
Jan 10	vsW&M	W 64-58	+3.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 122
Jan 15	@MONM	W 73-51	+5.5	W +27.5	127.5	U 124
Jan 19	@TOW	L 58-59	+7.5	W +6.5	124.5	U 117
Jan 24	vsNE	W 83-78	-4.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 29	vsHAMP	W 58-51	-2.5	W +4.5	127.5	U 109
Jan 31	vsNCAT	W 61-60	-7.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 121
Feb 5	@CAM	L 60-81	+4.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 7	@ELON	W 82-77	+4.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 159
Feb 12	vsMONM	L 73-93	-1.5	L −21.5	133.5	O 166
Feb 16	@STBK	L 69-72	+2.5	L −0.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 19	@NE	W 70-61	+1.5	W +10.5	143.5	U 131
Feb 22	vsTOW	W 68-62	+2.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 130
Feb 26	vsCAM	W 65-60	-1.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 125
Mar 3	@HOF	L 51-62	+8.5	L −2.5	133.5	U 113
Mar 7	vsNE	W 84-77	-4.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 161
Mar 8	vsMONM	L 57-65	+3.5	L −4.5	136.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 65-76

−1.5

COLG

L 83-90

−3.5

SYR

L 50-80

−18.5

NJIT

W 75-43

+18.5

PENN

L 68-84

−20.5

ODU

W 75-71

+0.5

MORG

W 71-66

−0.5

AMER

L 73-75

+2.5

LAS

L 64-69

−6.5

HOW

L 66-74

−14.5

MSM

W 75-67

+3.5

W 74-56

+7.5

COFC

L 63-72

+0.5

UNCW

L 53-65

+0.5

HOF

L 67-70

+1.5

STBK

W 56-37

+13.5

W&M

W 64-58

+9.5

MONM

W 73-51

+27.5

TOW

L 58-59

+6.5

W 83-78

+0.5

HAMP

W 58-51

+4.5

NCAT

W 61-60

−6.5

CAM

L 60-81

−16.5

ELON

W 82-77

+9.5

MONM

L 73-93

−21.5

STBK

L 69-72

−0.5

W 70-61

+10.5

TOW

W 68-62

+8.5

CAM

W 65-60

+3.5

HOF

L 51-62

−2.5

W 84-77

+2.5

MONM

L 57-65

−4.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 65-76

+1.5

COLG

L 83-90

+29.5

SYR

L 50-80

−13.5

NJIT

W 75-43

−20.5

PENN

L 68-84

−0.5

ODU

W 75-71

+3.5

MORG

W 71-66

−6.5

AMER

L 73-75

+10.5

LAS

L 64-69

+3.5

HOW

L 66-74

+1.5

MSM

W 75-67

+4.5

W 74-56

+0.5

COFC

L 63-72

−7.5

UNCW

L 53-65

−19.5

HOF

L 67-70

+5.5

STBK

W 56-37

−39.5

W&M

W 64-58

−28.5

MONM

W 73-51

−3.5

TOW

L 58-59

−7.5

W 83-78

+21.5

HAMP

W 58-51

−18.5

NCAT

W 61-60

−17.5

CAM

L 60-81

−0.5

ELON

W 82-77

+22.5

MONM

L 73-93

+32.5

STBK

L 69-72

+5.5

W 70-61

−12.5

TOW

W 68-62

−0.5

CAM

W 65-60

−18.5

HOF

L 51-62

−20.5

W 84-77

+22.5

MONM

L 57-65

−14.5

over 14under 18avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Penn

29 games played

Straight up

17-12

59% wins

Against the spread

20-9

69% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-21

28% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1259%

L L W W W W L L W L L W L W W L L L W W W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-969%

L L W W W W L L L W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-2128%

O O U U U U U O U U O U O O U U U U U U U U U U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@AMER	L 78-84	-1.5	L −7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 11	@PROV	L 81-106	+19.5	L −5.5	172.5	O 187
Nov 17	vsJOES	W 83-74	+5.5	W +14.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 21	@DREX	W 84-68	+4.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 152
Nov 28	vsMRMK	W 77-65	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsLAS	W 73-71	-1.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsHOF	L 60-77	+1.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 6	@VILL	L 63-90	+18.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 8	vsLAF	W 74-72	-7.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 20	@RUTG	L 69-70	+11.5	W +10.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 28	@GMU	L 79-83	+16.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 162
Dec 31	vsNJIT	W 80-61	-14.5	W +4.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 5	@PRIN	L 76-78	+3.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsBRWN	W 81-73	-5.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 17	@DART	W 84-74	+2.5	W +12.5	163.5	U 158
Jan 19	@HARV	L 63-64	+5.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsYALE	L 60-77	+6.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 137
Jan 30	@COLU	L 67-72	+4.5	L −0.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 31	@COR	W 91-81	+7.5	W +17.5	173.5	U 172
Feb 7	vsPRIN	W 61-60	-3.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 121
Feb 13	vsCOLU	W 76-67	-1.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 14	vsCOR	W 82-76	+2.5	W +8.5	169.5	U 158
Feb 21	@YALE	L 70-74	+9.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 27	vsDART	W 80-71	-6.5	W +2.5	154.5	U 151
Feb 28	vsHARV	W 64-61	-1.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 125
Mar 6	@BRWN	W 82-61	+1.5	W +22.5	146.5	U 143
Mar 14	vsHARV	W 62-60	+3.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 122
Mar 15	vsYALE	W 88-84	+9.5	W +13.5	144.5	O 172
Mar 19	vsILL	L 70-105	+25.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

−7.5

PROV

L 81-106

−5.5

JOES

W 83-74

+14.5

DREX

W 84-68

+20.5

MRMK

W 77-65

+9.5

LAS

W 73-71

+0.5

HOF

L 60-77

−15.5

VILL

L 63-90

−8.5

LAF

W 74-72

−5.5

RUTG

L 69-70

+10.5

GMU

L 79-83

+12.5

NJIT

W 80-61

+4.5

PRIN

L 76-78

+1.5

BRWN

W 81-73

+2.5

DART

W 84-74

+12.5

HARV

L 63-64

+4.5

YALE

L 60-77

−10.5

COLU

L 67-72

−0.5

COR

W 91-81

+17.5

PRIN

W 61-60

−2.5

COLU

W 76-67

+7.5

COR

W 82-76

+8.5

YALE

L 70-74

+5.5

DART

W 80-71

+2.5

HARV

W 64-61

+1.5

BRWN

W 82-61

+22.5

HARV

W 62-60

+5.5

YALE

W 88-84

+13.5

ILL

L 70-105

−9.5

covered 20didn’t cover 9avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

+7.5

PROV

L 81-106

+14.5

JOES

W 83-74

−6.5

DREX

W 84-68

−0.5

MRMK

W 77-65

−10.5

LAS

W 73-71

−5.5

HOF

L 60-77

−12.5

VILL

L 63-90

+2.5

LAF

W 74-72

−4.5

RUTG

L 69-70

−11.5

GMU

L 79-83

+15.5

NJIT

W 80-61

−10.5

PRIN

L 76-78

+8.5

BRWN

W 81-73

+8.5

DART

W 84-74

−5.5

HARV

L 63-64

−23.5

YALE

L 60-77

−20.5

COLU

L 67-72

−14.5

COR

W 91-81

−1.5

PRIN

W 61-60

−23.5

COLU

W 76-67

−5.5

COR

W 82-76

−11.5

YALE

L 70-74

−6.5

DART

W 80-71

−3.5

HARV

W 64-61

−13.5

BRWN

W 82-61

−3.5

HARV

W 62-60

−17.5

YALE

W 88-84

+27.5

ILL

L 70-105

+24.5

over 8under 21avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Penn has the better starters

Position by position: Drexel 1, Penn 2, even 2

DrexelBetterPenn

G J. Reed7.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 44

Even

G M. Zanoni12.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 48

G A. Abram TR3.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 80

DREXSmall

G A. Levine8.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.9 ast Score 61

G D. Tingler3.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.3 ast Score 59

PENNSmall

F T. Power16.8 pts · 7.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 81

F P. Pagonis TR4.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 1 ast Score 6

PENNSmall

F A. Gerhart5.2 pts · 4.6 reb · 1 ast Score 36

F M. de LaPorterie2.9 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 12

Even

F L. Lueth3.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

DrexelBetterPenn

DREX offense323rd of 366 · -10.5

PENNBig

PENN defense142nd of 366 · -3.1

DREX defense175th of 366 · -3.9

Even

PENN offense138th of 366 · -4.1

Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-0.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt-3.5 · 2 players

PENNBig

Frontcourt-0.4 · 3 players

Bench-0.1 · 2 players

DREXSmall

Bench-1.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDREX betterPENN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Drexel

Guards

J. Reed19 minA. Abram11 min · TRD. Tingler10 minM. Davis2 minL. PittmanNewM. HippsNew

Forwards

P. Pagonis18 min · TRM. de LaPorterie13 minR. Akuta5 minC. EdomwonyinNewD. SimonovicNew

Penn

Guards

M. Zanoni29 minA. Levine25 minS. Mohammed16 min · TRJ. Jones14 minN. Polonowski6 minP. Kamin3 min

Forwards

T. Power36 minA. Gerhart20 minL. Lueth17 minD. Scantlebury15 minW. Kruse3 minF. BillyNew

Centers

M. PereiraNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DREX67.3 #328

PENN74.4 #181

Points per possession

DREX1.03 #282

PENN1.08 #196

Pace (possessions)

DREX65.2 #341

PENN69.3 #158

Shooting

Effective FG%

DREX50.6 #204

PENN50.4 #223

3-point %

DREX35.5 #90

PENN38.3 #13

3-point attempt rate

DREX40.0 #171

PENN35.4 #264

Free throw rate

DREX31.6 #265

PENN33.9 #212

Possessions

Turnover rate

DREX19.1 #322

PENN15.4 #93

Offensive rebound rate

DREX31.2 #156

PENN30.0 #200

Assists per game

DREX12.8 #226

PENN13.7 #171

Defense

Points allowed

DREX67.6 #26

PENN74.5 #173

Points allowed per possession

DREX1.04 #64

PENN1.07 #137

Opponent effective FG%

DREX47.1 #22

PENN52.1 #218

Opponent 3-point %

DREX30.3 #15

PENN32.2 #73

Turnovers forced

DREX16.4 #195

PENN17.3 #132

Defensive rebound rate

DREX69.0 #202

PENN68.7 #220

Steals per game

DREX5.8 #254

PENN6.5 #184

Blocks per game

DREX3.5 #144

PENN3.1 #199

DREX		PENN
Scoring
67.3 #328	Points per game	74.4 #181
1.03 #282	Points per possession	1.08 #196
65.2 #341	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #158
Shooting
50.6 #204	Effective FG%	50.4 #223
35.5 #90	3-point %	38.3 #13
40.0 #171	3-point attempt rate	35.4 #264
31.6 #265	Free throw rate	33.9 #212
Possessions
19.1 #322	Turnover rate	15.4 #93
31.2 #156	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #200
12.8 #226	Assists per game	13.7 #171
Defense
67.6 #26	Points allowed	74.5 #173
1.04 #64	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #137
47.1 #22	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #218
30.3 #15	Opponent 3-point %	32.2 #73
16.4 #195	Turnovers forced	17.3 #132
69.0 #202	Defensive rebound rate	68.7 #220
5.8 #254	Steals per game	6.5 #184
3.5 #144	Blocks per game	3.1 #199

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Drexel

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Monmouth57–65
Wvs Northeastern84–77
L@ Hofstra51–62
Wvs Campbell65–60
Wvs Towson68–62

A week or more of rest.

Penn

17-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-5 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois70–105
Wvs Yale88–84
Wvs Harvard62–60
W@ Brown82–61
Wvs Harvard64–61

A week or more of rest.

Drexel Dragons at Pennsylvania Quakers

What could decide it: PENN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Drexel

Penn

Penn has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Drexel

Penn