1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. VILL @ PITT
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

Villanova Wildcats at Pittsburgh Panthers

Petersen Events Center · at Pitt
#32VILLVillanova
@
#74PITTPitt
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
VILLThis seasonPITT
0-1Record0-0
0-1ATS0-0
1-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VILL 76–73 · win probability VILL 61%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VILL has more of the edges

VILL 5, PITT 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VILLBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: VILL 15.0%, PITT 17.2%. Forced: VILL 18.6%, PITT 16.3%
VILLBig
Three-pointers
VILL hits 35.7% and allows 33.4%; PITT hits 33.4% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 45.7% and 42.6% of their shots
PITTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: VILL 32.2%, PITT 33.9%. Defensive: VILL 68.2%, PITT 71.9%
VILLSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: VILL 53.8 and allows 51.4; PITT 51.0 and allows 53.4
VILLSmall
PITT offense vs VILL defense
Offense 87th of 366 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings
VILLSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: VILL 33%, PITT 3%. Transfers in: VILL 6, PITT 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
PITTSmall
Home court
PITT at home. This season: PITT 0-0 at home, VILL 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: VILL plays 67.3 a game (270th fastest), PITT 65.0 (345th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
VILL has played the 35th-hardest schedule, PITT the 65th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
VILL offense vs PITT defense
Offense 39th of 366 against a defense 59th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: VILL 30.9, PITT 30.4. Allowed: VILL 30.0, PITT 30.9
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—VILL -3.3—
Total—148.8—
Projected score—VILL 76 · PITT 72.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadVILL -2.1—
1H total69.6—
1H projected scoreVILL 35.8 · PITT 33.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Villanova has the better starters

Position by position: Villanova 2, Pitt 1, even 2
VillanovaBetterPitt
G J. Fiegen TR11 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 82
Even
G N. George TR10.9 pts · 3 reb · 5.4 ast Score 75
G D. Simmons TR16.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 63
PITTSmall
G A. Sumler TR19.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.9 ast Score 93
G T. Perkins18 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast Score 100
VILLBig
F T. Rudovskii TR13.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 59
F D. Royal TR5 pts · 8 reb · 0 ast Score 100
Even
F B. Ndongo TR11.8 pts · 8.1 reb · 2.4 ast Score 90
F K. Evans TR13.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 2 ast Score 95
VILLSmall
C A. Mighty TR13.3 pts · 10.9 reb · 1 ast Score 71
VillanovaBetterPitt
VILL offense39th of 366 · +5.0
Even
PITT defense59th of 366 · +1.3
VILL defense30th of 366 · +3.5
VILLSmall
PITT offense87th of 366 · +0.2
Backcourt+7.2 · 3 players
VILLBig
Backcourt+4.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+6.1 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+5.4 · 3 players
Bench+3.3 · 4 players
VILLBig
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestVILL betterPITT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Villanova
Guards
J. Fiegen38 min · TRD. Simmons36 min · TRT. Perkins35 minE. Crawford26 min · TRW. Chiddick3 minB. MullerNew
Forwards
D. Royal32 min · TRK. Evans31 min · TRM. Hodge28 minA. Samb6 min · TR
Centers
N. OnyekwereNewL. SuigoNew
Pitt
Guards
N. George32 min · TRA. Sumler31 min · TRC. Hawkins27 min · TRJ. Powell16 min · TRJ. Bethea8 min · TRM. Moore6 min
Forwards
T. Rudovskii32 min · TRB. Ndongo27 min · TRA. Souare8 min · TRD. Diomande8 min · TRB. MayhewNewJ. NelsonNew
Centers
A. Mighty32 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
VILLPITT
Scoring
77.1 #113Points per game70.5 #274
1.15 #64Points per possession1.08 #181
67.3 #270Pace (possessions)65.0 #345
Shooting
53.8 #74Effective FG%51.0 #193
35.7 #773-point %33.4 #206
45.7 #523-point attempt rate42.6 #124
30.9 #284Free throw rate30.4 #300
Possessions
15.0 #65Turnover rate17.2 #223
32.2 #118Offensive rebound rate33.9 #72
15.5 #66Assists per game13.2 #197
Defense
71.2 #82Points allowed71.8 #101
1.06 #105Points allowed per possession1.11 #237
51.4 #181Opponent effective FG%53.4 #279
33.4 #148Opponent 3-point %35.2 #263
18.6 #70Turnovers forced16.3 #202
68.2 #246Defensive rebound rate71.9 #68
7.4 #93Steals per game6.5 #172
2.1 #340Blocks per game3.1 #203
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Villanova

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Utah State76–86
  • Lvs Georgetown64–78
  • Wvs Xavier91–78
  • W@ DePaul76–57
  • L@ St John's57–89

A week or more of rest.

Pitt

13-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs NC State88–98
  • Wvs Stanford64–63
  • W@ Syracuse71–69
  • Lvs Florida St74–75
  • W@ California72–56

A week or more of rest.