1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 21
  3. MICH @ VILL
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Michigan Wolverines at Villanova Wildcats

Xfinity Mobile Arena · at Villanova
#8MICHMichigan AP #16
@
#32VILLVillanova
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MICHThis seasonVILL
0-0Record0-1
0-0ATS0-1
0-0O/U1-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MICH 82–73 · win probability MICH 78%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 154.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MICH has more of the edges

MICH 4, VILL 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VILLBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MICH 16.3%, VILL 15.0%. Forced: MICH 15.2%, VILL 18.6%
MICHBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MICH 58.3 and allows 44.6; VILL 53.8 and allows 51.4
MICHBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MICH 34.7%, VILL 32.2%. Defensive: MICH 71.8%, VILL 68.2%
MICHBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MICH 38.0, VILL 30.9. Allowed: MICH 26.0, VILL 30.0
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MICH plays 71.7 a game (48th fastest), VILL 67.3 (270th). Faster games mean more points
MICHSmall
Three-pointers
MICH hits 36.8% and allows 30.4%; VILL hits 35.7% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 41.5% and 45.7% of their shots
VILLSmall
Home court
VILL at home. This season: VILL 0-0 at home, MICH 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
MICH has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, VILL the 35th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
VILL offense vs MICH defense
Offense 39th of 366 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings
Even
MICH offense vs VILL defense
Offense 5th of 366 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MICH 38%, VILL 33%. Transfers in: MICH 4, VILL 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MICH -8.9—
Total—154.3—
Projected score—MICH 81.6 · VILL 72.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMICH -5.4—
1H total72.1—
1H projected scoreMICH 38.8 · VILL 33.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Michigan 1, Villanova 1, even 3
MichiganBetterVillanova
G K. Noland TR17.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 87
Even
G J. Fiegen TR11 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 82
G E. Cadeau10.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.9 ast Score 87
MICHSmall
G D. Simmons TR16.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 63
G T. McKenney9.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 88
Even
G T. Perkins18 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast Score 100
G R. Gayle7.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 76
VILLSmall
F D. Royal TR5 pts · 8 reb · 0 ast Score 100
C M. Thiam TR12.8 pts · 7.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 92
Even
F K. Evans TR13.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 2 ast Score 95
MichiganBetterVillanova
MICH offense5th of 366 · +10.9
Even
VILL defense30th of 366 · +3.5
MICH defense10th of 366 · +7.4
Even
VILL offense39th of 366 · +5.0
Backcourt+7.0 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt+7.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt+4.4 · 1 player
VILLSmall
Frontcourt+6.1 · 2 players
Bench+5.5 · 4 players
MICHSmall
Bench+3.3 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestMICH betterVILL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Michigan
Guards
K. Noland34 min · TRE. Cadeau27 minT. McKenney22 minR. Gayle21 minH. Eisley1 minR. LiburdNew
Forwards
J. Estrella18 min · TRJ. Reed18 min · TRO. Goodman5 minH. HochbergNewL. CosbyNewQ. CostelloNew
Centers
M. Thiam27 min · TRM. MollerNew
Villanova
Guards
J. Fiegen38 min · TRD. Simmons36 min · TRT. Perkins35 minE. Crawford26 min · TRW. Chiddick3 minB. MullerNew
Forwards
D. Royal32 min · TRK. Evans31 min · TRM. Hodge28 minA. Samb6 min · TR
Centers
N. OnyekwereNewL. SuigoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MICHVILL
Scoring
87.3 #4Points per game77.1 #113
1.21 #8Points per possession1.15 #64
71.7 #48Pace (possessions)67.3 #270
Shooting
58.3 #8Effective FG%53.8 #74
36.8 #333-point %35.7 #77
41.5 #1413-point attempt rate45.7 #52
38.0 #102Free throw rate30.9 #284
Possessions
16.3 #157Turnover rate15.0 #65
34.7 #55Offensive rebound rate32.2 #118
18.6 #5Assists per game15.5 #66
Defense
69.5 #55Points allowed71.2 #82
0.97 #8Points allowed per possession1.06 #105
44.6 #1Opponent effective FG%51.4 #181
30.4 #18Opponent 3-point %33.4 #148
15.2 #270Turnovers forced18.6 #70
71.8 #70Defensive rebound rate68.2 #246
5.6 #286Steals per game7.4 #93
6.0 #2Blocks per game2.1 #340
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Michigan

37-3 in 2025-26 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs UConn69–63
  • Wvs Arizona91–73
  • Wvs Tennessee95–62
  • Wvs Alabama90–77
  • Wvs Saint Louis95–72

A week or more of rest.

Villanova

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Utah State76–86
  • Lvs Georgetown64–78
  • Wvs Xavier91–78
  • W@ DePaul76–57
  • L@ St John's57–89

A week or more of rest.