Coppin State Eagles at Villanova Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 7:00 PM ETFinneran Pavilion · at Villanova

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Coppin St and Villanova
COPP	This season	VILL
0-0	Record	0-1
0-0	ATS	0-1
0-0	O/U	1-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VILL 90–56 · win probability VILL 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VILL has more of the edges

COPP 1, VILL 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

VILLBig

COPP offense vs VILL defense

Offense 351st of 366 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

VILLBig

VILL offense vs COPP defense

Offense 39th of 366 against a defense 324th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

COPP has played the 313th-hardest schedule, VILL the 35th. A record against a soft schedule means less

VILLBig

Three-pointers

COPP hits 30.7% and allows 38.3%; VILL hits 35.7% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 35.2% and 45.7% of their shots

VILLBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: COPP 45.9 and allows 55.4; VILL 53.8 and allows 51.4

VILLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: COPP 22.3%, VILL 15.0%. Forced: COPP 17.6%, VILL 18.6%

VILLSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: COPP 30.4%, VILL 32.2%. Defensive: COPP 65.3%, VILL 68.2%

COPPSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: COPP 68%, VILL 33%. Transfers in: COPP 3, VILL 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: COPP plays 69.3 a game (159th fastest), VILL 67.3 (270th). Faster games mean more points

VILLSmall

Home court

VILL at home. This season: VILL 0-0 at home, COPP 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: COPP 38.5, VILL 30.9. Allowed: COPP 42.9, VILL 30.0

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	VILL -34.3	—
Total	—	146.1	—
Projected score	—	COPP 55.9 · VILL 90.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VILL -20.3	—
1H total	68.3	—
1H projected score	COPP 24 · VILL 44.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COPP WWLLW	13-17	43%	9-10	—
VILL LWWLL	19-14	58%	9-8	—

Venue/role: COPP away; VILL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
COPP UOOOU	19-11	63%	6-24
VILL UUOOO	20-13	61%	24-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COPP	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
VILL	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Coppin St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	@ VCU	L58–101LO
Dec 7	vs MERC	No recent meeting
Dec 10	vs MSM	L60–74WU

Villanova

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ KU	L65–81LO
Dec 1	@ TEM	W74–56WU
Dec 9	vs FDU	W86–72LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Coppin St

30 games played

Straight up

6-24

20% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-11

63% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-2420%

L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1743%

W L W L L W L W L L L W L L W L W L L W L L L W W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1163%

O O O U U O O U O O U O O U O O U O O O O O U U U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMD	L 61-83	+28.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 5	@LAS	L 59-87	+17.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 9	@JMU	L 70-84	+18.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 154
Nov 12	@USF	L 50-100	+34.5	L −15.5	167.5	U 150
Nov 14	vsCMU	L 59-82	+10.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 141
Nov 15	vsUSA	L 62-72	+18.5	W +8.5	133.5	O 134
Nov 22	@VCU	L 58-101	+32.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 25	@RID	W 68-65	+8.5	W +11.5	139.5	U 133
Nov 30	@L-MD	L 84-95	+9.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 179
Dec 3	@WVU	L 49-91	+31.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 140
Dec 6	@LIB	L 50-92	+30.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 9	@JOES	L 65-87	+22.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 14	@RAD	L 77-107	+20.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 184
Dec 19	@NAVY	L 55-88	+20.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 143
Dec 22	@GTWN	L 67-97	+33.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 164
Dec 29	vsUMBC	L 59-93	+10.5	L −23.5	148.5	O 152
Jan 3	@DSU	W 53-51	+8.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 104
Jan 10	vsNCCU	L 77-88	+6.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 12	vsSCST	L 72-74	-1.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	@UMES	L 67-70	+10.5	W +7.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 24	@NORF	L 76-103	+13.5	L −13.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 31	vsMORG	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 169
Feb 2	vsHOW	L 53-72	+14.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsDSU	W 65-47	+1.5	W +19.5	132.5	U 112
Feb 14	@NCCU	W 58-56	+10.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 114
Feb 16	@SCST	W 59-57	+4.5	W +6.5	138.5	U 116
Feb 21	vsUMES	W 71-65	+3.5	W +9.5	128.5	O 136
Feb 28	vsNORF	L 69-75	+5.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 2	@HOW	L 70-90	+19.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 160
Mar 5	@MORG	L 66-70	+5.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 61-83

+6.5

LAS

L 59-87

−10.5

JMU

L 70-84

+4.5

USF

L 50-100

−15.5

CMU

L 59-82

−12.5

USA

L 62-72

+8.5

VCU

L 58-101

−10.5

RID

W 68-65

+11.5

L-MD

L 84-95

−1.5

WVU

L 49-91

−10.5

LIB

L 50-92

−11.5

JOES

L 65-87

+0.5

RAD

L 77-107

−9.5

NAVY

L 55-88

−12.5

GTWN

L 67-97

+3.5

UMBC

L 59-93

−23.5

DSU

W 53-51

+10.5

NCCU

L 77-88

−4.5

SCST

L 72-74

−3.5

UMES

L 67-70

+7.5

NORF

L 76-103

−13.5

MORG

L 80-89

−5.5

HOW

L 53-72

−4.5

DSU

W 65-47

+19.5

NCCU

W 58-56

+12.5

SCST

W 59-57

+6.5

UMES

W 71-65

+9.5

NORF

L 69-75

−0.5

HOW

L 70-90

−0.5

MORG

L 66-70

+1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 61-83

+4.5

LAS

L 59-87

+6.5

JMU

L 70-84

+12.5

USF

L 50-100

−17.5

CMU

L 59-82

−1.5

USA

L 62-72

+0.5

VCU

L 58-101

+7.5

RID

W 68-65

−6.5

L-MD

L 84-95

+35.5

WVU

L 49-91

+5.5

LIB

L 50-92

−1.5

JOES

L 65-87

+5.5

RAD

L 77-107

+29.5

NAVY

L 55-88

−2.5

GTWN

L 67-97

+13.5

UMBC

L 59-93

+3.5

DSU

W 53-51

−35.5

NCCU

L 77-88

+21.5

SCST

L 72-74

+5.5

UMES

L 67-70

+3.5

NORF

L 76-103

+35.5

MORG

L 80-89

+13.5

HOW

L 53-72

−21.5

DSU

W 65-47

−20.5

NCCU

W 58-56

−29.5

SCST

W 59-57

−22.5

UMES

W 71-65

+7.5

NORF

L 69-75

+3.5

HOW

L 70-90

+19.5

MORG

L 66-70

−13.5

over 19under 11avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Villanova

33 games played

Straight up

24-9

73% wins

Against the spread

19-14

58% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-13

61% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-973%

L W W W W W W W L W W W W W L W W L W L W W W W W W L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

19-1458%

W W W L W L W W L W W W L W L L W L W W W W W L W L L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1361%

U O U O U O U O U O U U U O O O O O U O O U O O O O U O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBYU	L 66-71	+9.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 8	vsQUC	W 94-74	-17.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 11	vsSHU	W 94-60	-19.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 154
Nov 15	vsDUQ	W 87-77	-10.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 164
Nov 19	@LAS	W 70-55	-12.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 125
Nov 25	vsODU	W 89-75	-22.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 164
Dec 1	vsTEM	W 74-56	-14.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 6	vsPENN	W 90-63	-18.5	W +8.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 9	@MICH	L 61-89	+17.5	L −10.5	156.5	U 150
Dec 13	vsPITT	W 79-61	-10.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 140
Dec 19	vsWIS	W 76-66	+3.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 142
Dec 23	@HALL	W 64-56	+1.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 120
Dec 31	vsDEP	W 71-66	-12.5	L −7.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	@BTLR	W 85-67	+2.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 152
Jan 7	vsCREI	L 72-76	-4.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 148
Jan 10	@MARQ	W 76-73	-3.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 149
Jan 13	@PROV	W 88-82	-2.5	W +3.5	156.5	O 170
Jan 17	vsSJU	L 79-86	+2.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 165
Jan 21	vsGTWN	W 66-51	-8.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 117
Jan 24	@CONN	L 67-75	+11.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 142
Jan 30	vsPROV	W 87-73	-8.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 160
Feb 4	vsHALL	W 72-60	-5.5	W +6.5	134.5	U 132
Feb 7	@GTWN	W 80-73	-2.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 10	vsMARQ	W 77-74	-9.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 14	@CREI	W 80-69	-1.5	W +9.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 17	@XAV	W 92-89	-4.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 181
Feb 21	vsCONN	L 63-73	+3.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsBTLR	W 82-73	-10.5	L −1.5	147.5	O 155
Feb 28	@SJU	L 57-89	+7.5	L −24.5	147.5	U 146
Mar 4	@DEP	W 76-57	-1.5	W +17.5	135.5	U 133
Mar 7	vsXAV	W 91-78	-11.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 169
Mar 12	vsGTWN	L 64-78	-7.5	L −21.5	140.5	O 142
Mar 20	vsUSU	L 76-86	+1.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BYU

L 66-71

+4.5

QUC

W 94-74

+2.5

SHU

W 94-60

+14.5

DUQ

W 87-77

−0.5

LAS

W 70-55

+2.5

ODU

W 89-75

−8.5

TEM

W 74-56

+3.5

PENN

W 90-63

+8.5

MICH

L 61-89

−10.5

PITT

W 79-61

+7.5

WIS

W 76-66

+13.5

HALL

W 64-56

+9.5

DEP

W 71-66

−7.5

BTLR

W 85-67

+20.5

CREI

L 72-76

−8.5

MARQ

W 76-73

−0.5

PROV

W 88-82

+3.5

SJU

L 79-86

−4.5

GTWN

W 66-51

+6.5

CONN

L 67-75

+3.5

PROV

W 87-73

+5.5

HALL

W 72-60

+6.5

GTWN

W 80-73

+4.5

MARQ

W 77-74

−6.5

CREI

W 80-69

+9.5

XAV

W 92-89

−1.5

CONN

L 63-73

−6.5

BTLR

W 82-73

−1.5

SJU

L 57-89

−24.5

DEP

W 76-57

+17.5

XAV

W 91-78

+1.5

GTWN

L 64-78

−21.5

USU

L 76-86

−8.5

covered 19didn’t cover 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BYU

L 66-71

−16.5

QUC

W 94-74

+17.5

SHU

W 94-60

−6.5

DUQ

W 87-77

+12.5

LAS

W 70-55

−19.5

ODU

W 89-75

+16.5

TEM

W 74-56

−16.5

PENN

W 90-63

+2.5

MICH

L 61-89

−6.5

PITT

W 79-61

+1.5

WIS

W 76-66

−10.5

HALL

W 64-56

−15.5

DEP

W 71-66

−2.5

BTLR

W 85-67

+2.5

CREI

L 72-76

+5.5

MARQ

W 76-73

+2.5

PROV

W 88-82

+13.5

SJU

L 79-86

+17.5

GTWN

W 66-51

−25.5

CONN

L 67-75

+4.5

PROV

W 87-73

+2.5

HALL

W 72-60

−2.5

GTWN

W 80-73

+12.5

MARQ

W 77-74

+6.5

CREI

W 80-69

+3.5

XAV

W 92-89

+28.5

CONN

L 63-73

−5.5

BTLR

W 82-73

+7.5

SJU

L 57-89

−1.5

DEP

W 76-57

−2.5

XAV

W 91-78

+15.5

GTWN

L 64-78

+1.5

USU

L 76-86

+15.5

over 20under 13avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Villanova has the better starters

Position by position: Coppin St 0, Villanova 5, even 0

Coppin StBetterVillanova

G H. Williams7.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 27

VILLBig

G J. Fiegen TR11 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 82

G C. Sparrow5.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 40

VILLSmall

G D. Simmons TR16.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 63

G J. Piercy6.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 23

VILLBig

G T. Perkins18 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast Score 100

F N. Lamizana6.6 pts · 3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 18

VILLBig

F D. Royal TR5 pts · 8 reb · 0 ast Score 100

F T. Koenig5.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 28

VILLBig

F K. Evans TR13.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 2 ast Score 95

Coppin StBetterVillanova

COPP offense351st of 366 · -12.8

VILLBig

VILL defense30th of 366 · +3.5

COPP defense324th of 366 · -8.4

VILLBig

VILL offense39th of 366 · +5.0

Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players

VILLBig

Backcourt+7.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.6 · 2 players

VILLBig

Frontcourt+6.1 · 2 players

Bench-6.3 · 5 players

VILLBig

Bench+3.3 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestCOPP betterVILL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Coppin St

Guards

H. Williams20 minC. Sparrow19 minJ. Piercy18 minB. Saunders16 minD. Lydner12 minJ. Brown5 min

Forwards

N. Lamizana19 minT. Koenig17 minT. Gapare16 min · TRE. TaylorNewL. LawalNewA. MyersNew

Centers

F. Aire9 min

Villanova

Guards

J. Fiegen38 min · TRD. Simmons36 min · TRT. Perkins35 minE. Crawford26 min · TRW. Chiddick3 minB. MullerNew

Forwards

D. Royal32 min · TRK. Evans31 min · TRM. Hodge28 minA. Samb6 min · TR

Centers

N. OnyekwereNewL. SuigoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

COPP64.3 #352

VILL77.1 #113

Points per possession

COPP0.93 #362

VILL1.15 #64

Pace (possessions)

COPP69.3 #159

VILL67.3 #270

Shooting

Effective FG%

COPP45.9 #350

VILL53.8 #74

3-point %

COPP30.7 #326

VILL35.7 #77

3-point attempt rate

COPP35.2 #273

VILL45.7 #52

Free throw rate

COPP38.5 #90

VILL30.9 #284

Possessions

Turnover rate

COPP22.3 #363

VILL15.0 #65

Offensive rebound rate

COPP30.4 #183

VILL32.2 #118

Assists per game

COPP11.4 #317

VILL15.5 #66

Defense

Points allowed

COPP81.0 #334

VILL71.2 #82

Points allowed per possession

COPP1.17 #342

VILL1.06 #105

Opponent effective FG%

COPP55.4 #339

VILL51.4 #181

Opponent 3-point %

COPP38.3 #360

VILL33.4 #148

Turnovers forced

COPP17.6 #118

VILL18.6 #70

Defensive rebound rate

COPP65.3 #333

VILL68.2 #246

Steals per game

COPP6.0 #233

VILL7.4 #93

Blocks per game

COPP3.5 #143

VILL2.1 #340

COPP		VILL
Scoring
64.3 #352	Points per game	77.1 #113
0.93 #362	Points per possession	1.15 #64
69.3 #159	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #270
Shooting
45.9 #350	Effective FG%	53.8 #74
30.7 #326	3-point %	35.7 #77
35.2 #273	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #52
38.5 #90	Free throw rate	30.9 #284
Possessions
22.3 #363	Turnover rate	15.0 #65
30.4 #183	Offensive rebound rate	32.2 #118
11.4 #317	Assists per game	15.5 #66
Defense
81.0 #334	Points allowed	71.2 #82
1.17 #342	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #105
55.4 #339	Opponent effective FG%	51.4 #181
38.3 #360	Opponent 3-point %	33.4 #148
17.6 #118	Turnovers forced	18.6 #70
65.3 #333	Defensive rebound rate	68.2 #246
6.0 #233	Steals per game	7.4 #93
3.5 #143	Blocks per game	2.1 #340

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Coppin St

6-24 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Morgan St66–70
L@ Howard70–90
Lvs Norfolk St69–75
Wvs MD Eastern71–65
W@ SC State59–57

A week or more of rest.

Villanova

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Utah State76–86
Lvs Georgetown64–78
Wvs Xavier91–78
W@ DePaul76–57
L@ St John's57–89

A week or more of rest.

Coppin State Eagles at Villanova Wildcats

What could decide it: VILL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Coppin St

Villanova

Villanova has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Coppin St

Villanova