Youngstown State Penguins at Cleveland State Vikings: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETWolstein Center · at Cleveland St · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Youngstown St and Cleveland St
YSU	This season	CLE
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects YSU 77–76 · win probability YSU 53%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: YSU has more of the edges

YSU 4, CLE 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

YSUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: YSU 30.4%, CLE 27.0%. Defensive: YSU 69.3%, CLE 63.4%

CLESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: YSU 31.4, CLE 37.9. Allowed: YSU 36.0, CLE 35.5

YSUSmall

YSU offense vs CLE defense

Offense 267th of 366 against a defense 356th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

YSU has played the 304th-hardest schedule, CLE the 222nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLESmall

Three-pointers

YSU hits 33.8% and allows 35.5%; CLE hits 37.5% and allows 36.1%. Threes are 49.4% and 50.8% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: YSU plays 68.9 a game (188th fastest), CLE 71.4 (56th). Faster games mean more points

YSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: YSU 18.8%, CLE 17.9%. Forced: YSU 17.8%, CLE 15.1%

YSUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: YSU 53.6 and allows 52.3; CLE 54.2 and allows 57.2

CLESmall

Home court

CLE at home. This season: CLE 0-0 at home, YSU 0-0 away

Even

CLE offense vs YSU defense

Offense 248th of 366 against a defense 264th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: YSU 8%, CLE 0%. Transfers in: YSU 6, CLE 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	YSU -0.7	—
Total	—	152.6	—
Projected score	—	YSU 76.7 · CLE 75.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	YSU -0.6	—
1H total	71.3	—
1H projected score	YSU 35.9 · CLE 35.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
YSU WWLLL	10-19	34%	5-10	—
CLE LLLWL	12-18	40%	4-8	—

Venue/role: YSU away; CLE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
YSU OUUOU	15-14	52%	12-17
CLE OUUOU	19-11	63%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
YSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
CLE	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Youngstown St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ RMU	L53–68LU
Dec 12	@ SC	No recent meeting
Dec 15	@ MISS	No recent meeting

Cleveland St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ PFW	L86–92LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 12 since 2021-22

YSU 5–7 CLECLE leads · 12 games since 2021-22 · YSU 6-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 18, 2025-26	CLE 82 @ YSU 106	YSU -11.5	YSU W
Jan 17, 2025-26	YSU 78 @ CLE 80	CLE +8.5	CLE W
Mar 10, 2024-25	YSU 56 vs CLE 54	CLE -2.5	YSU W
Feb 16, 2024-25	YSU 68 @ CLE 60	CLE -3.5	YSU W
Jan 11, 2024-25	CLE 80 @ YSU 72	YSU -4.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Youngstown St

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

10-19

34% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-14

52% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

L W L L L W W W W L W L L L L L L W L W W L W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-1934%

L W W L L W W L W L W L L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1452%

U O O O U U O U U O U U O O U O O O U O O U O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PITT	L 59-74	+14.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	@GCU	W 90-81	+15.5	W +24.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 15	@SBU	L 80-84	+9.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 19	@TOL	L 75-92	+1.5	L −15.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 23	vsUNCG	L 62-68	-5.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 130
Nov 24	vsGASO	W 67-61	-1.5	W +4.5	163.5	U 128
Nov 28	vsCHST	W 87-64	-14.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 3	vsWRST	W 69-68	-3.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 6	@IUIN	W 78-55	-6.5	W +16.5	171.5	U 133
Dec 17	@RMU	L 77-80	+2.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 20	vsUPST	W 74-65	-6.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 29	vsDETM	L 68-73	-9.5	L −14.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 1	vsOAK	L 83-85	-1.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 4	@NKU	L 79-94	+4.5	L −10.5	146.5	O 173
Jan 7	vsPFW	L 69-71	-4.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 140
Jan 15	@WRST	L 83-93	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 176
Jan 17	@CLE	L 78-80	-8.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 22	vsGB	W 88-81	-7.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 24	vsMILW	L 64-65	-6.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 30	vsIUIN	W 85-76	-10.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 161
Feb 4	@PFW	W 90-61	+2.5	W +31.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 7	vsRMU	L 66-72	-3.5	L −9.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 12	@OAK	W 86-82	+3.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 168
Feb 15	@DETM	L 70-76	-4.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 146
Feb 18	vsCLE	W 106-82	-11.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 188
Feb 22	vsNKU	W 64-58	-2.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 122
Feb 25	@MILW	L 65-78	-1.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 143
Feb 28	@GB	L 63-85	+1.5	L −20.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 4	@RMU	L 53-68	+3.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−0.5

GCU

W 90-81

+24.5

SBU

L 80-84

+5.5

TOL

L 75-92

−15.5

UNCG

L 62-68

−11.5

GASO

W 67-61

+4.5

CHST

W 87-64

+8.5

WRST

W 69-68

−2.5

IUIN

W 78-55

+16.5

RMU

L 77-80

−0.5

UPST

W 74-65

+2.5

DETM

L 68-73

−14.5

OAK

L 83-85

−3.5

NKU

L 79-94

−10.5

PFW

L 69-71

−6.5

WRST

L 83-93

−5.5

CLE

L 78-80

−10.5

W 88-81

−0.5

MILW

L 64-65

−7.5

IUIN

W 85-76

−1.5

PFW

W 90-61

+31.5

RMU

L 66-72

−9.5

OAK

W 86-82

+7.5

DETM

L 70-76

−10.5

CLE

W 106-82

+12.5

NKU

W 64-58

+3.5

MILW

L 65-78

−14.5

L 63-85

−20.5

RMU

L 53-68

−11.5

covered 10didn’t cover 19avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−12.5

GCU

W 90-81

+18.5

SBU

L 80-84

+17.5

TOL

L 75-92

+6.5

UNCG

L 62-68

−22.5

GASO

W 67-61

−35.5

CHST

W 87-64

+4.5

WRST

W 69-68

−7.5

IUIN

W 78-55

−38.5

RMU

L 77-80

+16.5

UPST

W 74-65

−2.5

DETM

L 68-73

−5.5

OAK

L 83-85

+10.5

NKU

L 79-94

+26.5

PFW

L 69-71

−5.5

WRST

L 83-93

+34.5

CLE

L 78-80

+5.5

W 88-81

+29.5

MILW

L 64-65

−22.5

IUIN

W 85-76

+7.5

PFW

W 90-61

+3.5

RMU

L 66-72

−5.5

OAK

W 86-82

+12.5

DETM

L 70-76

−5.5

CLE

W 106-82

+30.5

NKU

W 64-58

−30.5

MILW

L 65-78

−4.5

L 63-85

+6.5

RMU

L 53-68

−22.5

over 15under 14avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cleveland St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-11

63% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L W L L L L L L L W L L L L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1840%

W L W W L L W L L L L W W L L L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1163%

O O O O O U U O U O U O U O O O O O O O U U U O O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LUC	L 88-91	+17.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 179
Nov 10	@NU	L 63-110	+23.5	L −23.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsKENT	L 95-102	+11.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 197
Nov 16	vsRAD	W 87-82	+8.5	W +13.5	162.5	O 169
Nov 19	vsVAL	L 75-90	-2.5	L −17.5	158.5	O 165
Nov 22	@KENT	L 71-91	+15.5	L −4.5	172.5	U 162
Nov 28	@MIZ	L 59-86	+31.5	W +4.5	170.5	U 145
Dec 3	@NKU	L 80-95	+14.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 175
Dec 6	vsDETM	L 59-71	-1.5	L −13.5	158.5	U 130
Dec 17	@UAB	L 77-101	+18.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 178
Dec 21	vsMILW	L 71-81	+6.5	L −3.5	160.5	U 152
Dec 29	vsIUIN	W 99-86	-1.5	W +11.5	172.5	O 185
Jan 4	@PFW	L 71-74	+11.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 145
Jan 9	@OAK	L 74-97	+15.5	L −7.5	169.5	O 171
Jan 11	@DETM	L 84-94	+6.5	L −3.5	162.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsGB	L 73-88	+3.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 17	vsYSU	W 80-78	+8.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 21	@WRST	W 85-79	+15.5	W +21.5	156.5	O 164
Jan 30	@GB	W 89-82	+7.5	W +14.5	150.5	O 171
Feb 1	@MILW	W 90-88	+9.5	W +11.5	160.5	O 178
Feb 4	vsOAK	W 91-78	+7.5	W +20.5	170.5	U 169
Feb 7	@IUIN	L 74-82	+2.5	L −5.5	169.5	U 156
Feb 12	vsRMU	L 68-85	+3.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 153
Feb 15	vsWRST	L 90-102	+7.5	L −4.5	157.5	O 192
Feb 18	@YSU	L 82-106	+11.5	L −12.5	157.5	O 188
Feb 22	vsPFW	L 86-92	+3.5	L −2.5	163.5	O 178
Feb 25	vsNKU	L 70-81	+8.5	L −2.5	166.5	U 151
Feb 28	@RMU	L 64-83	+12.5	L −6.5	157.5	U 147
Mar 2	vsIUIN	W 101-93	+2.5	W +10.5	169.5	O 194
Mar 4	@WRST	L 61-90	+14.5	L −14.5	162.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LUC

L 88-91

+14.5

L 63-110

−23.5

KENT

L 95-102

+4.5

RAD

W 87-82

+13.5

VAL

L 75-90

−17.5

KENT

L 71-91

−4.5

MIZ

L 59-86

+4.5

NKU

L 80-95

−0.5

DETM

L 59-71

−13.5

UAB

L 77-101

−5.5

MILW

L 71-81

−3.5

IUIN

W 99-86

+11.5

PFW

L 71-74

+8.5

OAK

L 74-97

−7.5

DETM

L 84-94

−3.5

L 73-88

−11.5

YSU

W 80-78

+10.5

WRST

W 85-79

+21.5

W 89-82

+14.5

MILW

W 90-88

+11.5

OAK

W 91-78

+20.5

IUIN

L 74-82

−5.5

RMU

L 68-85

−13.5

WRST

L 90-102

−4.5

YSU

L 82-106

−12.5

PFW

L 86-92

−2.5

NKU

L 70-81

−2.5

RMU

L 64-83

−6.5

IUIN

W 101-93

+10.5

WRST

L 61-90

−14.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LUC

L 88-91

+27.5

L 63-110

+21.5

KENT

L 95-102

+31.5

RAD

W 87-82

+6.5

VAL

L 75-90

+6.5

KENT

L 71-91

−10.5

MIZ

L 59-86

−25.5

NKU

L 80-95

+16.5

DETM

L 59-71

−28.5

UAB

L 77-101

+21.5

MILW

L 71-81

−8.5

IUIN

W 99-86

+12.5

PFW

L 71-74

−14.5

OAK

L 74-97

+1.5

DETM

L 84-94

+15.5

L 73-88

+10.5

YSU

W 80-78

+5.5

WRST

W 85-79

+7.5

W 89-82

+20.5

MILW

W 90-88

+17.5

OAK

W 91-78

−1.5

IUIN

L 74-82

−13.5

RMU

L 68-85

−1.5

WRST

L 90-102

+34.5

YSU

L 82-106

+30.5

PFW

L 86-92

+14.5

NKU

L 70-81

−15.5

RMU

L 64-83

−10.5

IUIN

W 101-93

+24.5

WRST

L 61-90

−11.5

over 19under 11avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cleveland St has the better starters

Position by position: Youngstown St 0, Cleveland St 2, even 3

Youngstown StBetterCleveland St

G L. Holmstrom TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 30

CLESmall

G O. Bronston TR10.3 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55

G J. Haynes3.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

Even

G J. Lowery TR4.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 30

G J. Tyler TR4.3 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Score 18

Even

G R. Griffith TR3.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 18

G J. Nwankwo TR3 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28

Even

G C. Stinson TR1.2 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 14

F J. Coleman TR3.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 5

CLEBig

C D. Vorst TR7.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50

Youngstown StBetterCleveland St

YSU offense267th of 366 · -8.1

YSUSmall

CLE defense356th of 366 · -10.1

YSU defense264th of 366 · -6.8

Even

CLE offense248th of 366 · -7.5

Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players

CLESmall

Backcourt-3.5 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player

CLESmall

Frontcourt+0.2 · 1 player

Bench-2.0 · 2 players

CLESmall

Bench+0.0 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestYSU betterCLE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Youngstown St

Guards

L. Holmstrom27 min · TRJ. Haynes15 minJ. Tyler13 min · TRJ. Nwankwo12 min · TRD. Aekins7 min · TRJ. LivingstonNew

Forwards

J. Coleman13 min · TRJ. Moupadele12 min · TRL. LokhmanchukNewE. Summers-LivingstonNew

Centers

K. AmoakoNew

Cleveland St

Guards

O. Bronston21 min · TRJ. Lowery15 min · TRR. Griffith14 min · TRC. Stinson8 min · TRA. Bruskotter7 min · TRM. BaysNew

Forwards

D. Jones2 min · TRG. HeadingsNewB. McCruterNew

Centers

D. Vorst21 min · TRB. WhiteNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

YSU75.1 #162

CLE78.6 #89

Points per possession

YSU1.09 #160

CLE1.10 #133

Pace (possessions)

YSU68.9 #188

CLE71.4 #56

Shooting

Effective FG%

YSU53.6 #76

CLE54.2 #62

3-point %

YSU33.8 #184

CLE37.5 #21

3-point attempt rate

YSU49.4 #17

CLE50.8 #11

Free throw rate

YSU31.4 #272

CLE37.9 #105

Possessions

Turnover rate

YSU18.8 #314

CLE17.9 #264

Offensive rebound rate

YSU30.4 #182

CLE27.0 #294

Assists per game

YSU14.0 #144

CLE14.8 #100

Defense

Points allowed

YSU74.9 #185

CLE88.6 #363

Points allowed per possession

YSU1.09 #190

CLE1.24 #363

Opponent effective FG%

YSU52.3 #228

CLE57.2 #360

Opponent 3-point %

YSU35.5 #280

CLE36.1 #309

Turnovers forced

YSU17.8 #106

CLE15.1 #279

Defensive rebound rate

YSU69.3 #191

CLE63.4 #356

Steals per game

YSU6.7 #151

CLE5.5 #289

Blocks per game

YSU3.5 #146

CLE2.6 #297

YSU		CLE
Scoring
75.1 #162	Points per game	78.6 #89
1.09 #160	Points per possession	1.10 #133
68.9 #188	Pace (possessions)	71.4 #56
Shooting
53.6 #76	Effective FG%	54.2 #62
33.8 #184	3-point %	37.5 #21
49.4 #17	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #11
31.4 #272	Free throw rate	37.9 #105
Possessions
18.8 #314	Turnover rate	17.9 #264
30.4 #182	Offensive rebound rate	27.0 #294
14.0 #144	Assists per game	14.8 #100
Defense
74.9 #185	Points allowed	88.6 #363
1.09 #190	Points allowed per possession	1.24 #363
52.3 #228	Opponent effective FG%	57.2 #360
35.5 #280	Opponent 3-point %	36.1 #309
17.8 #106	Turnovers forced	15.1 #279
69.3 #191	Defensive rebound rate	63.4 #356
6.7 #151	Steals per game	5.5 #289
3.5 #146	Blocks per game	2.6 #297

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Youngstown St

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Robert Morris53–68
L@ Green Bay63–85
L@ Milwaukee65–78
Wvs N Kentucky64–58
Wvs Cleveland St106–82

A week or more of rest.

Cleveland St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Wright St61–90
Wvs IU Indy101–93
L@ Robert Morris64–83
Lvs N Kentucky70–81
Lvs Purdue FW86–92

A week or more of rest.

Youngstown State Penguins at Cleveland State Vikings

What could decide it: YSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Youngstown St

Cleveland St

Cleveland St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Youngstown St

Cleveland St