Manhattan Jaspers at Le Moyne Dolphins: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM ETTed Grant Court · at Le Moyne

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Manhattan and Le Moyne
MAN	This season	LEM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LEM 76–72 · win probability LEM 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LEM has more of the edges

MAN 1, LEM 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

LEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MAN 47.9 and allows 53.9; LEM 52.6 and allows 49.3

MANBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MAN 15.6%, LEM 19.1%. Forced: MAN 16.6%, LEM 15.0%

LEMSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MAN 28.6%, LEM 25.2%. Defensive: MAN 63.0%, LEM 71.0%

LEMSmall

Three-pointers

MAN hits 32.0% and allows 36.6%; LEM hits 34.3% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 37.1% and 40.8% of their shots

LEMSmall

Home court

LEM at home. This season: LEM 0-0 at home, MAN 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MAN 10%, LEM 24%. Transfers in: MAN 5, LEM 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MAN 34.0, LEM 39.5. Allowed: MAN 25.7, LEM 32.7

Even

LEM offense vs MAN defense

Offense 333rd of 366 against a defense 346th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MAN has played the 336th-hardest schedule, LEM the 344th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: MAN plays 69.0 a game (182nd fastest), LEM 69.2 (168th). Faster games mean more points

Even

MAN offense vs LEM defense

Offense 301st of 366 against a defense 308th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LEM -4.1	—
Total	—	148.2	—
Projected score	—	MAN 72 · LEM 76.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LEM -2.3	—
1H total	69.3	—
1H projected score	MAN 33.5 · LEM 35.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MAN WLLLL	11-20	35%	4-11	—
LEM WLWLL	16-15	52%	5-7	—

Venue/role: MAN away; LEM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MAN UOUUU	13-18	42%	11-20
LEM UOUUO	12-19	39%	14-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MAN	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
LEM	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Manhattan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs FOR	L53–82LU
Nov 20	@ MIA	No recent meeting
Nov 25	@ NJIT	No recent meeting

Le Moyne

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ EVAN	No recent meeting
Nov 20	@ MIZ	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs ME	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MAN 0–1 LEMLEM leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MAN 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 29, 2024-25	LEM 81 @ MAN 77	MAN -5.5	LEM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Manhattan

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

11-20

35% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-18

42% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

L W L W L L L W L L L W W W L L W L L L L W L L W W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-2035%

L W L L L L L W L L W W W W L L W L L W L L L L W W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1842%

O U U U O O O U O U U O U U U U O O U O U O U O U O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@USC	L 83-114	+28.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 197
Nov 12	vsUTU	W 79-75	+2.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 14	@HAW	L 56-86	+15.5	L −14.5	156.5	U 142
Nov 15	vsMVSU	W 80-73	-20.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 153
Nov 21	@TA&M	L 68-109	+23.5	L −17.5	162.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsWAG	L 101-103	-2.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 204
Nov 29	@ARMY	L 78-81	-1.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 5	vsFAIR	W 70-66	+1.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 136
Dec 7	@MRST	L 68-80	+7.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 148
Dec 13	@FOR	L 53-82	+8.5	L −20.5	147.5	U 135
Dec 18	vsFUR	L 68-75	+10.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 143
Dec 21	vsPRES	W 87-81	+2.5	W +8.5	138.5	O 168
Dec 29	@RID	W 74-71	-2.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 2	vsQUIN	W 80-79	+7.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 159
Jan 4	@MRMK	L 66-73	+6.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 9	vsCAN	L 64-70	-7.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 134
Jan 11	vsNIA	W 79-70	-5.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 149
Jan 14	@FAIR	L 62-98	+6.5	L −29.5	158.5	O 160
Jan 17	vsSIE	L 59-74	+6.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 133
Jan 19	@QUIN	L 92-98	+13.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 190
Jan 24	@IONA	L 57-66	+7.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 123
Jan 30	vsRID	W 95-90	-5.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 185
Feb 1	@MSM	L 65-72	+6.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 5	vsSPU	L 75-80	+4.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 155
Feb 7	vsSHU	W 80-68	+1.5	W +13.5	161.5	U 148
Feb 13	@NIA	W 76-69	-2.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 145
Feb 15	@CAN	W 69-65	-1.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 134
Feb 20	vsMRST	L 70-84	+5.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 154
Feb 27	@SPU	L 65-75	+7.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 140
Mar 1	vsIONA	L 65-69	+2.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 134
Mar 5	vsFAIR	L 60-71	+3.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USC

L 83-114

−2.5

UTU

W 79-75

+6.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

MVSU

W 80-73

−13.5

TA&M

L 68-109

−17.5

WAG

L 101-103

−4.5

ARMY

L 78-81

−4.5

FAIR

W 70-66

+5.5

MRST

L 68-80

−4.5

FOR

L 53-82

−20.5

FUR

L 68-75

+3.5

PRES

W 87-81

+8.5

RID

W 74-71

+0.5

QUIN

W 80-79

+8.5

MRMK

L 66-73

−0.5

CAN

L 64-70

−13.5

NIA

W 79-70

+3.5

FAIR

L 62-98

−29.5

SIE

L 59-74

−8.5

QUIN

L 92-98

+7.5

IONA

L 57-66

−1.5

RID

W 95-90

−0.5

MSM

L 65-72

−0.5

SPU

L 75-80

−0.5

SHU

W 80-68

+13.5

NIA

W 76-69

+4.5

CAN

W 69-65

+2.5

MRST

L 70-84

−8.5

SPU

L 65-75

−2.5

IONA

L 65-69

−1.5

FAIR

L 60-71

−7.5

covered 11didn’t cover 20avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USC

L 83-114

+41.5

UTU

W 79-75

−4.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

MVSU

W 80-73

−1.5

TA&M

L 68-109

+14.5

WAG

L 101-103

+59.5

ARMY

L 78-81

+6.5

FAIR

W 70-66

−19.5

MRST

L 68-80

+7.5

FOR

L 53-82

−12.5

FUR

L 68-75

−11.5

PRES

W 87-81

+29.5

RID

W 74-71

−2.5

QUIN

W 80-79

−0.5

MRMK

L 66-73

−9.5

CAN

L 64-70

−11.5

NIA

W 79-70

+8.5

FAIR

L 62-98

+1.5

SIE

L 59-74

−11.5

QUIN

L 92-98

+36.5

IONA

L 57-66

−30.5

RID

W 95-90

+39.5

MSM

L 65-72

−10.5

SPU

L 75-80

+10.5

SHU

W 80-68

−13.5

NIA

W 76-69

+8.5

CAN

W 69-65

−8.5

MRST

L 70-84

+11.5

SPU

L 65-75

−5.5

IONA

L 65-69

−17.5

FAIR

L 60-71

−17.5

over 13under 18avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Le Moyne

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

16-15

52% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-19

39% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

L L L W L W W L W L L L W L W L W W W W L L L W W W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1552%

W L W W L W W L W L W W W L W L W W L W L L L L L W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-1939%

U U O O O U O O U U O U U U U U U O U O U U O O U U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@XAV	L 69-74	+24.5	W +19.5	156.5	U 143
Nov 9	@BGSU	L 60-83	+11.5	L −11.5	154.5	U 143
Nov 13	@MASS	L 80-94	+16.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 17	vsNIA	W 74-68	-2.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 142
Nov 22	vsFAIR	L 83-97	+1.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 28	@LAF	W 76-63	+4.5	W +17.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsMONM	W 83-79	+6.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 162
Nov 30	vsBALL	L 85-96	-1.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 181
Dec 6	@BING	W 78-63	-2.5	W +12.5	144.5	U 141
Dec 16	@TEX	L 53-95	+29.5	L −12.5	152.5	U 148
Dec 20	@SBU	L 81-92	+21.5	W +10.5	151.5	O 173
Dec 28	@BC	L 64-72	+12.5	W +4.5	146.5	U 136
Jan 2	@SFPA	W 84-58	-5.5	W +20.5	151.5	U 142
Jan 4	@MERC	L 60-74	+2.5	L −11.5	141.5	U 134
Jan 8	vsNHVN	W 73-47	-5.5	W +20.5	137.5	U 120
Jan 10	vsCCSU	L 59-69	-1.5	L −11.5	146.5	U 128
Jan 17	@CHST	W 72-57	-6.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 129
Jan 19	vsLIU	W 83-77	+1.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 160
Jan 23	vsWAG	W 69-67	-7.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 136
Jan 26	@FDU	W 87-74	+1.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 29	@LIU	L 61-83	+8.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 144
Jan 31	vsSTO	L 54-65	-2.5	L −13.5	140.5	U 119
Feb 5	@WAG	L 78-79	-1.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 157
Feb 7	vsSFPA	W 86-84	-7.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 170
Feb 12	vsMERC	W 58-57	-2.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 115
Feb 14	vsCHST	W 81-63	-6.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 144
Feb 19	@CCSU	L 77-78	+8.5	W +7.5	165.5	U 155
Feb 21	@STO	L 68-77	-1.5	L −10.5	137.5	O 145
Feb 26	vsFDU	W 76-59	-4.5	W +12.5	139.5	U 135
Feb 28	@NHVN	L 59-66	-1.5	L −8.5	137.5	U 125
Mar 4	vsSTO	L 71-81	-4.5	L −14.5	140.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

XAV

L 69-74

+19.5

BGSU

L 60-83

−11.5

MASS

L 80-94

+2.5

NIA

W 74-68

+3.5

FAIR

L 83-97

−12.5

LAF

W 76-63

+17.5

MONM

W 83-79

+10.5

BALL

L 85-96

−12.5

BING

W 78-63

+12.5

TEX

L 53-95

−12.5

SBU

L 81-92

+10.5

L 64-72

+4.5

SFPA

W 84-58

+20.5

MERC

L 60-74

−11.5

NHVN

W 73-47

+20.5

CCSU

L 59-69

−11.5

CHST

W 72-57

+8.5

LIU

W 83-77

+7.5

WAG

W 69-67

−5.5

FDU

W 87-74

+14.5

LIU

L 61-83

−13.5

STO

L 54-65

−13.5

WAG

L 78-79

−2.5

SFPA

W 86-84

−5.5

MERC

W 58-57

−1.5

CHST

W 81-63

+11.5

CCSU

L 77-78

+7.5

STO

L 68-77

−10.5

FDU

W 76-59

+12.5

NHVN

L 59-66

−8.5

STO

L 71-81

−14.5

covered 16didn’t cover 15avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

XAV

L 69-74

−13.5

BGSU

L 60-83

−11.5

MASS

L 80-94

+20.5

NIA

W 74-68

+3.5

FAIR

L 83-97

+34.5

LAF

W 76-63

−12.5

MONM

W 83-79

+16.5

BALL

L 85-96

+40.5

BING

W 78-63

−3.5

TEX

L 53-95

−4.5

SBU

L 81-92

+21.5

L 64-72

−10.5

SFPA

W 84-58

−9.5

MERC

L 60-74

−7.5

NHVN

W 73-47

−17.5

CCSU

L 59-69

−18.5

CHST

W 72-57

−17.5

LIU

W 83-77

+9.5

WAG

W 69-67

−7.5

FDU

W 87-74

+21.5

LIU

L 61-83

−3.5

STO

L 54-65

−21.5

WAG

L 78-79

+18.5

SFPA

W 86-84

+16.5

MERC

W 58-57

−23.5

CHST

W 81-63

−0.5

CCSU

L 77-78

−10.5

STO

L 68-77

+7.5

FDU

W 76-59

−4.5

NHVN

L 59-66

−12.5

STO

L 71-81

+11.5

over 12under 19avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Manhattan 1, Le Moyne 1, even 3

ManhattanBetterLe Moyne

G B. Tweedy TR9 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 29

No call

G A. Moss10 pts · 7 reb · 5 ast Not ranked

G J. Sabino TR7.1 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 53

MANBig

G J. Clayville TR6.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11

G Q. Elliott3.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 17

LEMBig

G D. King TR4.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 59

G J. Delaney0.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

F K. Stuckey TR4.4 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 5

F O. Stankovic TR1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F T. Francis TR4.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 27

ManhattanBetterLe Moyne

MAN offense301st of 366 · -9.4

Even

LEM defense308th of 366 · -8.0

MAN defense346th of 366 · -9.3

Even

LEM offense333rd of 366 · -10.8

Backcourt-4.3 · 4 players

Even

Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player

MANSmall

Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players

Bench-0.5 · 3 players

MANBig

Bench-6.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMAN betterLEM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Manhattan

Guards

B. Tweedy30 min · TRJ. Sabino21 min · TRQ. Elliott12 minJ. Delaney5 minA. Miguel4 minB. PearceNew

Forwards

O. Stankovic6 min · TRK. Kearney4 min · TRL. McChesney3 min · TRI. JohnsonNewD. EricNewN. ManojlovicNew

Le Moyne

Guards

A. Moss37 minJ. Clayville20 min · TRD. King14 min · TRJ. Teat14 min · TRK. Williams12 min · TRJ. Lee4 min

Forwards

K. Stuckey19 min · TRT. Francis15 min · TRT. Roe7 minI. BrownNewC. SchreinerNewC. JohnsonNew

Centers

P. Hartman9 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MAN72.4 #232

LEM72.3 #234

Points per possession

MAN1.05 #247

LEM1.04 #265

Pace (possessions)

MAN69.0 #182

LEM69.2 #168

Shooting

Effective FG%

MAN47.9 #315

LEM52.6 #118

3-point %

MAN32.0 #280

LEM34.3 #152

3-point attempt rate

MAN37.1 #228

LEM40.8 #151

Free throw rate

MAN34.0 #208

LEM39.5 #68

Possessions

Turnover rate

MAN15.6 #112

LEM19.1 #323

Offensive rebound rate

MAN28.6 #247

LEM25.2 #337

Assists per game

MAN12.3 #268

LEM14.0 #149

Defense

Points allowed

MAN79.6 #309

LEM73.9 #154

Points allowed per possession

MAN1.15 #330

LEM1.07 #132

Opponent effective FG%

MAN53.9 #297

LEM49.3 #75

Opponent 3-point %

MAN36.6 #332

LEM36.0 #303

Turnovers forced

MAN16.6 #175

LEM15.0 #289

Defensive rebound rate

MAN63.0 #358

LEM71.0 #107

Steals per game

MAN7.8 #54

LEM5.5 #300

Blocks per game

MAN2.3 #325

LEM3.3 #177

MAN		LEM
Scoring
72.4 #232	Points per game	72.3 #234
1.05 #247	Points per possession	1.04 #265
69.0 #182	Pace (possessions)	69.2 #168
Shooting
47.9 #315	Effective FG%	52.6 #118
32.0 #280	3-point %	34.3 #152
37.1 #228	3-point attempt rate	40.8 #151
34.0 #208	Free throw rate	39.5 #68
Possessions
15.6 #112	Turnover rate	19.1 #323
28.6 #247	Offensive rebound rate	25.2 #337
12.3 #268	Assists per game	14.0 #149
Defense
79.6 #309	Points allowed	73.9 #154
1.15 #330	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #132
53.9 #297	Opponent effective FG%	49.3 #75
36.6 #332	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #303
16.6 #175	Turnovers forced	15.0 #289
63.0 #358	Defensive rebound rate	71.0 #107
7.8 #54	Steals per game	5.5 #300
2.3 #325	Blocks per game	3.3 #177

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Manhattan

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Fairfield60–71
Lvs Iona65–69
L@ Saint Peter's65–75
Lvs Marist70–84
W@ Canisius69–65

A week or more of rest.

Le Moyne

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Stonehill71–81
L@ New Haven59–66
Wvs FDU76–59
L@ Stonehill68–77
L@ C Connecticut77–78

A week or more of rest.

Manhattan Jaspers at Le Moyne Dolphins

What could decide it: LEM has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Manhattan

Le Moyne

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Manhattan

Le Moyne