1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 14
  3. USA @ UNT
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 14

South Alabama Jaguars at North Texas Mean Green

The Super Pit · at North Texas
#227USASouth Alabama
@
#112UNTNorth Texas
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
USAThis seasonUNT
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNT 76–65 · win probability UNT 84%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 140.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNT has more of the edges

USA 3, UNT 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNTBig
USA offense vs UNT defense
Offense 242nd of 366 against a defense 66th, on the model’s ratings
USABig
Free throws
Free throw rate: USA 38.5, UNT 39.6. Allowed: USA 25.4, UNT 45.1
UNTSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: USA 25.0%, UNT 33.5%. Defensive: USA 68.6%, UNT 67.6%
Context
Schedule so far
USA has played the 223rd-hardest schedule, UNT the 121st. A record against a soft schedule means less
USASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: USA 52.6 and allows 50.1; UNT 46.0 and allows 48.5
USASmall
Three-pointers
USA hits 34.5% and allows 33.1%; UNT hits 28.7% and allows 30.9%. Threes are 36.5% and 32.4% of their shots
UNTSmall
Home court
UNT at home. This season: UNT 0-0 at home, USA 0-0 away
UNTSmall
UNT offense vs USA defense
Offense 165th of 366 against a defense 212th, on the model’s ratings
UNTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: USA 21%, UNT 45%. Transfers in: USA 0, UNT 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: USA 13.1%, UNT 16.8%. Forced: USA 18.0%, UNT 21.3%
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: USA plays 67.1 a game (277th fastest), UNT 67.6 (245th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNT -11.3—
Total—140.9—
Projected score—USA 64.8 · UNT 76.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNT -6.6—
1H total66.0—
1H projected scoreUSA 29.7 · UNT 36.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

South Alabama has the better starters

Position by position: South Alabama 1, North Texas 0, even 4
South AlabamaBetterNorth Texas
G A. Goldstein NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G J. Stevenson17.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2 ast Score 94
G A. Lewis NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G C. Chavis TR10.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 53
G J. Langsy NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G C. Franklin6.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 47
F P. Law13.1 pts · 5.7 reb · 1 ast Score 86
Even
G A. Amkou TR5.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 74
F S. Williams6 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.2 ast Score 84
USASmall
F R. Robinson7.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 65
South AlabamaBetterNorth Texas
USA offense242nd of 366 · -7.3
UNTBig
UNT defense66th of 366 · +1.0
USA defense212th of 366 · -5.4
Even
UNT offense165th of 366 · -5.0
BackcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Backcourt+2.8 · 4 players
Frontcourt+3.5 · 2 players
USABig
Frontcourt+0.5 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestUSA betterUNT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
South Alabama
Guards
A. GoldsteinNewA. LewisNewJ. LangsyNewS. ShoptawNewD. WilliamsNewD. RomanNew
Forwards
P. Law26 minS. Williams15 minL. KunzewitschNewO. KenneyNewR. WilliamsNewD. HueittNew
North Texas
Guards
J. Stevenson33 minC. Chavis27 min · TRC. Franklin25 minA. Amkou12 min · TRE. Horton9 minB. BarnesNew
Forwards
R. Robinson23 minM. Holmes6 min · TRO. NdourNewT. CrumbleNewF. KalajzicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
USAUNT
Scoring
73.2 #218Points per game69.1 #298
1.10 #139Points per possession1.02 #302
67.1 #277Pace (possessions)67.6 #245
Shooting
52.6 #120Effective FG%46.0 #349
34.5 #1463-point %28.7 #358
36.5 #2373-point attempt rate32.4 #325
38.5 #89Free throw rate39.6 #63
Possessions
13.1 #8Turnover rate16.8 #182
25.0 #341Offensive rebound rate33.5 #76
11.9 #287Assists per game12.1 #282
Defense
71.3 #85Points allowed68.2 #35
1.06 #100Points allowed per possession1.01 #33
50.1 #105Opponent effective FG%48.5 #47
33.1 #133Opponent 3-point %30.9 #32
18.0 #96Turnovers forced21.3 #6
68.6 #222Defensive rebound rate67.6 #278
7.9 #46Steals per game8.9 #11
2.2 #330Blocks per game4.3 #51
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

South Alabama

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Auburn67–78
  • Lvs GA Southern85–94
  • Lvs Southern Miss55–68
  • Wvs UL Monroe89–54
  • Wvs Troy65–54

A week or more of rest.

North Texas

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tulsa84–90
  • Wvs FAU74–70
  • Wvs Rice62–58
  • W@ UAB62–58
  • L@ Charlotte79–80

A week or more of rest.