1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 14
  3. UCR @ FRES
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 14

UC Riverside Highlanders at Fresno State Bulldogs

Save Mart Center · at Fresno St
#281UCRUC Riverside
@
#174FRESFresno St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UCRThis seasonFRES
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FRES 79–69 · win probability FRES 81%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FRES has more of the edges

UCR 0, FRES 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FRESBig
FRES offense vs UCR defense
Offense 176th of 366 against a defense 296th, on the model’s ratings
FRESBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UCR 35.0, FRES 33.8. Allowed: UCR 40.9, FRES 28.6
FRESSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UCR 19.0%, FRES 18.1%. Forced: UCR 15.5%, FRES 18.2%
Context
Schedule so far
UCR has played the 182nd-hardest schedule, FRES the 103rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
FRESSmall
Three-pointers
UCR hits 31.6% and allows 33.5%; FRES hits 32.1% and allows 30.7%. Threes are 38.3% and 40.9% of their shots
FRESSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UCR 48.9 and allows 52.7; FRES 50.6 and allows 51.5
FRESSmall
UCR offense vs FRES defense
Offense 265th of 366 against a defense 190th, on the model’s ratings
FRESSmall
Home court
FRES at home. This season: FRES 0-0 at home, UCR 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UCR plays 71.0 a game (74th fastest), FRES 69.3 (156th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UCR 21%, FRES 0%. Transfers in: UCR 5, FRES 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UCR 27.8%, FRES 27.9%. Defensive: UCR 70.0%, FRES 69.4%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FRES -10.1—
Total—148.1—
Projected score—UCR 69 · FRES 79.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFRES -5.9—
1H total69.3—
1H projected scoreUCR 31.7 · FRES 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: UC Riverside 1, Fresno St 1, even 3
UC RiversideBetterFresno St
G D. Perteete6.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31
No call
G D. Lungu TR13.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 3 ast Not ranked
G J. Evans TR5.8 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 25
FRESBig
G R. Candelino TR11.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 76
G B. Waller4.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37
Even
G B. Amuneke TR2.1 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28
G D. Malcolm TR5.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 87
UCRBig
F B. Henige TR4.9 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 38
F D. Washington TR2.7 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 0
No call
C B. Fall TR0.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
UC RiversideBetterFresno St
UCR offense265th of 366 · -8.1
FRESSmall
FRES defense190th of 366 · -4.4
UCR defense296th of 366 · -7.4
FRESSmall
FRES offense176th of 366 · -5.4
Backcourt-2.7 · 4 players
FRESBig
Backcourt+1.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player
FRESSmall
Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players
Bench+0.3 · 2 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestUCR betterFRES betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UC Riverside
Guards
D. Perteete28 minJ. Evans15 min · TRB. Waller14 minD. Malcolm14 min · TRT. Duckett7 min · TRE. ReaganNew
Forwards
D. Washington11 min · TRT. Parrish-TillmanNewA. McKinneyNewJ. MajokNew
Centers
A. Oyeadier2 min · TR
Fresno St
Guards
D. Lungu27 min · TRR. Candelino25 min · TRB. Amuneke8 min · TRN. ZulemieNewK. PerryNewQ. RhymesNew
Forwards
B. Henige20 min · TRR. ParsleyNewY. Kesse-BedaNewA. GrangerNewM. VuckovicNewC. SchroederNew
Centers
B. Fall5 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UCRFRES
Scoring
71.6 #258Points per game72.3 #233
1.01 #317Points per possession1.04 #266
71.0 #74Pace (possessions)69.3 #156
Shooting
48.9 #291Effective FG%50.6 #206
31.6 #3013-point %32.1 #274
38.3 #2033-point attempt rate40.9 #146
35.0 #177Free throw rate33.8 #218
Possessions
19.0 #321Turnover rate18.1 #277
27.8 #275Offensive rebound rate27.9 #272
12.3 #262Assists per game12.6 #247
Defense
79.1 #303Points allowed73.5 #142
1.11 #256Points allowed per possession1.06 #110
52.7 #252Opponent effective FG%51.5 #184
33.5 #159Opponent 3-point %30.7 #30
15.5 #250Turnovers forced18.2 #88
70.0 #159Defensive rebound rate69.4 #183
5.1 #325Steals per game6.7 #154
4.1 #67Blocks per game2.2 #331
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UC Riverside

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Hawai'i74–93
  • Wvs CSU Northridge95–84
  • L@ Santa Barbara59–70
  • Lvs UC Davis73–78
  • Wvs Bakersfield93–65

A week or more of rest.

Fresno St

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Colorado St63–67
  • L@ Grand Canyon60–85
  • Wvs San José St82–68
  • Lvs Boise St53–69
  • L@ Colorado St70–74

A week or more of rest.