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  2. Fri, Nov 20
  3. UNT @ APP
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 20

North Texas Mean Green at App State Mountaineers

Holmes Convocation Center · at App State
#112UNTNorth Texas
@
#248APPApp State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNTThis seasonAPP
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNT 71–64 · win probability UNT 72%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 134.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: APP has more of the edges

UNT 2, APP 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNTBig
APP offense vs UNT defense
Offense 328th of 366 against a defense 66th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UNT has played the 121st-hardest schedule, APP the 252nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
APPBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNT 39.6, APP 39.1. Allowed: UNT 45.1, APP 31.2
UNTBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNT 16.8%, APP 15.3%. Forced: UNT 21.3%, APP 14.0%
APPSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNT 33.5%, APP 32.0%. Defensive: UNT 67.6%, APP 71.0%
APPSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNT 46.0 and allows 48.5; APP 49.9 and allows 47.5
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: UNT plays 67.6 a game (245th fastest), APP 64.3 (358th). Faster games mean more points
APPSmall
Home court
APP at home. This season: APP 0-0 at home, UNT 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNT 45%, APP 25%. Transfers in: UNT 3, APP 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
UNT offense vs APP defense
Offense 165th of 366 against a defense 148th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
UNT hits 28.7% and allows 30.9%; APP hits 30.4% and allows 32.2%. Threes are 32.4% and 45.9% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNT -6.8—
Total—134.3—
Projected score—UNT 70.6 · APP 63.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNT -4.2—
1H total62.9—
1H projected scoreUNT 33.5 · APP 29.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

North Texas has the better starters

Position by position: North Texas 4, App State 0, even 1
North TexasBetterApp State
G J. Stevenson17.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2 ast Score 94
UNTBig
G H. Koffi TR12.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 30
G C. Chavis TR10.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 53
UNTBig
G E. Banks6.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15
G C. Franklin6.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 47
UNTSmall
F C. Moodie2.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 15
G A. Amkou TR5.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 74
UNTBig
F A. Njock2.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 37
F R. Robinson7.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 65
No call
C R. Elezaj TR0 pts · 0.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
North TexasBetterApp State
UNT offense165th of 366 · -5.0
Even
APP defense148th of 366 · -3.2
UNT defense66th of 366 · +1.0
UNTBig
APP offense328th of 366 · -10.6
Backcourt+2.8 · 4 players
UNTBig
Backcourt-5.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt+0.5 · 1 player
UNTSmall
Frontcourt-1.5 · 3 players
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
Even
Bench+0.0 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestUNT betterAPP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
North Texas
Guards
J. Stevenson33 minC. Chavis27 min · TRC. Franklin25 minA. Amkou12 min · TRE. Horton9 minB. BarnesNew
Forwards
R. Robinson23 minM. Holmes6 min · TRO. NdourNewT. CrumbleNewF. KalajzicNew
App State
Guards
H. Koffi36 min · TRE. Banks26 minC. O'Kelley1 minL. LedfordNewB. KopetzkiNewJ. ColonNew
Forwards
C. Moodie12 minA. Njock11 minD. LytchNewG. ClaytonNewT. NealNew
Centers
R. Elezaj1 min · TRB. ChretienNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNTAPP
Scoring
69.1 #298Points per game69.3 #295
1.02 #302Points per possession1.08 #187
67.6 #245Pace (possessions)64.3 #358
Shooting
46.0 #349Effective FG%49.9 #240
28.7 #3583-point %30.4 #335
32.4 #3253-point attempt rate45.9 #48
39.6 #63Free throw rate39.1 #77
Possessions
16.8 #182Turnover rate15.3 #87
33.5 #76Offensive rebound rate32.0 #123
12.1 #282Assists per game11.4 #318
Defense
68.2 #35Points allowed67.4 #25
1.01 #33Points allowed per possession1.05 #87
48.5 #47Opponent effective FG%47.5 #33
30.9 #32Opponent 3-point %32.2 #71
21.3 #6Turnovers forced14.0 #336
67.6 #278Defensive rebound rate71.0 #106
8.9 #11Steals per game4.6 #351
4.3 #51Blocks per game3.4 #155
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

North Texas

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tulsa84–90
  • Wvs FAU74–70
  • Wvs Rice62–58
  • W@ UAB62–58
  • L@ Charlotte79–80

A week or more of rest.

App State

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern Miss73–86
  • L@ Texas St57–60
  • Wvs GA Southern89–74
  • Lvs Marshall93–94
  • L@ James Madison58–69

A week or more of rest.