1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. LEM @ EVAN
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

Le Moyne Dolphins at Evansville Purple Aces

Ford Center · at Evansville
#332LEMLe Moyne
@
#256EVANEvansville
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LEMThis seasonEVAN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects EVAN 76–69 · win probability EVAN 75%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 144.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LEM has more of the edges

LEM 3, EVAN 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
LEM has played the 344th-hardest schedule, EVAN the 127th. A record against a soft schedule means less
LEMBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: LEM 52.6 and allows 49.3; EVAN 49.3 and allows 55.1
EVANBig
LEM offense vs EVAN defense
Offense 333rd of 366 against a defense 220th, on the model’s ratings
LEMBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: LEM 39.5, EVAN 29.8. Allowed: LEM 32.7, EVAN 31.4
LEMSmall
Three-pointers
LEM hits 34.3% and allows 36.0%; EVAN hits 32.3% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 40.8% and 43.1% of their shots
EVANSmall
Home court
EVAN at home. This season: EVAN 0-0 at home, LEM 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LEM 25.2%, EVAN 22.0%. Defensive: LEM 71.0%, EVAN 69.8%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: LEM plays 69.2 a game (168th fastest), EVAN 67.9 (232nd). Faster games mean more points
Even
EVAN offense vs LEM defense
Offense 277th of 366 against a defense 308th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LEM 24%, EVAN 35%. Transfers in: LEM 7, EVAN 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LEM 19.1%, EVAN 19.1%. Forced: LEM 15.0%, EVAN 15.4%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—EVAN -7.6—
Total—144.6—
Projected score—LEM 68.5 · EVAN 76.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadEVAN -4.4—
1H total67.6—
1H projected scoreLEM 31.6 · EVAN 36—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Evansville has the better starters

Position by position: Le Moyne 1, Evansville 2, even 2
Le MoyneBetterEvansville
G A. Moss10 pts · 7 reb · 5 ast Not ranked
No call
G B. Quinet8.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31
G J. Clayville TR6.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11
No call
G M. Langenfeld TR2.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
G D. King TR4.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 59
EVANSmall
F A. Casey13.9 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast Score 86
F K. Stuckey TR4.4 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 5
EVANBig
F G. Winther TR7.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 51
F T. Francis TR4.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 27
LEMSmall
F J. Dyson-Merwe2.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8
Le MoyneBetterEvansville
LEM offense333rd of 366 · -10.8
EVANSmall
EVAN defense220th of 366 · -5.7
LEM defense308th of 366 · -8.0
Even
EVAN offense277th of 366 · -8.5
Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players
EVANSmall
Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players
EVANBig
Frontcourt+0.8 · 3 players
Bench-6.1 · 5 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestLEM betterEVAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Le Moyne
Guards
A. Moss37 minJ. Clayville20 min · TRD. King14 min · TRJ. Teat14 min · TRK. Williams12 min · TRJ. Lee4 min
Forwards
K. Stuckey19 min · TRT. Francis15 min · TRT. Roe7 minI. BrownNewC. SchreinerNewC. JohnsonNew
Centers
P. Hartman9 min · TR
Evansville
Guards
B. Quinet27 minM. Langenfeld7 min · TRM. RiekNewL. EllspermannNewA. GutmanNewR. MasumyanNew
Forwards
A. Casey30 minG. Winther22 min · TRJ. Dyson-Merwe13 minD. NejezchlebNewY. PinasNewJ. GenschawNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LEMEVAN
Scoring
72.3 #234Points per game65.8 #347
1.04 #265Points per possession0.97 #344
69.2 #168Pace (possessions)67.9 #232
Shooting
52.6 #118Effective FG%49.3 #280
34.3 #1523-point %32.3 #268
40.8 #1513-point attempt rate43.1 #109
39.5 #68Free throw rate29.8 #315
Possessions
19.1 #323Turnover rate19.1 #324
25.2 #337Offensive rebound rate22.0 #355
14.0 #149Assists per game12.6 #245
Defense
73.9 #154Points allowed78.3 #275
1.07 #132Points allowed per possession1.15 #329
49.3 #75Opponent effective FG%55.1 #332
36.0 #303Opponent 3-point %37.6 #351
15.0 #289Turnovers forced15.4 #258
71.0 #107Defensive rebound rate69.8 #170
5.5 #300Steals per game5.0 #335
3.3 #177Blocks per game3.3 #171
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Le Moyne

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Stonehill71–81
  • L@ New Haven59–66
  • Wvs FDU76–59
  • L@ Stonehill68–77
  • L@ C Connecticut77–78

A week or more of rest.

Evansville

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Northern Iowa59–68
  • Lvs S Illinois67–81
  • Wvs Valparaiso80–79
  • L@ Belmont64–98
  • L@ Murray St75–88

A week or more of rest.