Evansville Purple Aces at Memphis Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 AM ETFedExForum · at Memphis

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Evansville and Memphis
EVAN	This season	MEM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 84–67 · win probability MEM 94%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

EVAN 1, MEM 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MEMBig

EVAN offense vs MEM defense

Offense 277th of 366 against a defense 116th, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

MEM offense vs EVAN defense

Offense 62nd of 366 against a defense 220th, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

Three-pointers

EVAN hits 32.3% and allows 37.6%; MEM hits 31.6% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 43.1% and 33.7% of their shots

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: EVAN 49.3 and allows 55.1; MEM 48.7 and allows 48.7

MEMSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: EVAN 19.1%, MEM 18.9%. Forced: EVAN 15.4%, MEM 18.6%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: EVAN plays 67.9 a game (232nd fastest), MEM 71.9 (37th). Faster games mean more points

MEMSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: EVAN 22.0%, MEM 35.3%. Defensive: EVAN 69.8%, MEM 64.3%

EVANSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: EVAN 29.8, MEM 34.7. Allowed: EVAN 31.4, MEM 42.4

MEMSmall

Home court

MEM at home. This season: MEM 0-0 at home, EVAN 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

EVAN has played the 127th-hardest schedule, MEM the 81st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: EVAN 35%, MEM 15%. Transfers in: EVAN 2, MEM 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MEM -17.4	—
Total	—	151.2	—
Projected score	—	EVAN 66.9 · MEM 84.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MEM -10.3	—
1H total	70.7	—
1H projected score	EVAN 30.2 · MEM 40.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EVAN WLWLW	14-16	47%	7-6	—
MEM LLWLL	14-18	44%	10-6	—

Venue/role: EVAN away; MEM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
EVAN OOOOU	15-15	50%	5-25
MEM OUOOU	16-16	50%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EVAN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
MEM	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Evansville

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	@ MIZ	No recent meeting
Nov 30	vs CHST	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs WKU	L79–80WO

Memphis

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs PSU	No recent meeting
Nov 29	vs DAY	No recent meeting
Dec 2	vs JKST	W94–77LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Evansville

30 games played

Straight up

5-25

17% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2517%

L L L W L L W L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1647%

W L L W L L W W L W L W L L L W W L W L L W W L L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O O U U U O O O U U U U U U O U O U O U O O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@PUR	L 51-82	+33.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 12	vsMTSU	L 72-77	-2.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 18	vsUTA	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsORST	W 73-69	+6.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 23	vsAKR	L 59-97	+11.5	L −26.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsCOFC	L 59-78	+4.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsBALL	W 64-52	-6.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 116
Dec 6	@WKU	L 79-80	+11.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 13	@ND	L 58-82	+14.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 16	vsBEL	L 78-83	+8.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 21	vsDRKE	L 65-66	-2.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 29	@BRAD	L 68-76	+11.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 1	@ILST	L 47-73	+12.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 120
Jan 4	vsUNI	L 48-62	+4.5	L −9.5	131.5	U 110
Jan 7	vsMUR	L 69-79	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 148
Jan 10	@INST	W 72-69	+7.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 13	vsBRAD	L 90-94	+7.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 184
Jan 20	@UIC	L 49-76	+8.5	L −18.5	139.5	U 125
Jan 28	@DRKE	L 78-82	+8.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 160
Jan 31	@UNI	L 55-71	+11.5	L −4.5	128.5	U 126
Feb 3	vsINST	L 63-84	+1.5	L −19.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 6	@VAL	L 63-70	+8.5	W +1.5	136.5	U 133
Feb 9	vsILST	W 88-80	+10.5	W +18.5	137.5	O 168
Feb 12	@SIU	L 60-86	+12.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 146
Feb 18	vsUIC	L 46-84	+8.5	L −29.5	140.5	U 130
Feb 21	@MUR	L 75-88	+15.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 163
Feb 25	@BEL	L 64-98	+18.5	L −15.5	152.5	O 162
Feb 28	vsVAL	W 80-79	+5.5	W +6.5	137.5	O 159
Mar 1	vsSIU	L 67-81	+9.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 148
Mar 5	vsUNI	L 59-68	+13.5	W +4.5	127.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

+2.5

MTSU

L 72-77

−7.5

UTA

L 76-84

−10.5

ORST

W 73-69

+10.5

AKR

L 59-97

−26.5

COFC

L 59-78

−14.5

BALL

W 64-52

+5.5

WKU

L 79-80

+10.5

L 58-82

−9.5

BEL

L 78-83

+3.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−3.5

BRAD

L 68-76

+3.5

ILST

L 47-73

−13.5

UNI

L 48-62

−9.5

MUR

L 69-79

−1.5

INST

W 72-69

+10.5

BRAD

L 90-94

+3.5

UIC

L 49-76

−18.5

DRKE

L 78-82

+4.5

UNI

L 55-71

−4.5

INST

L 63-84

−19.5

VAL

L 63-70

+1.5

ILST

W 88-80

+18.5

SIU

L 60-86

−13.5

UIC

L 46-84

−29.5

MUR

L 75-88

+2.5

BEL

L 64-98

−15.5

VAL

W 80-79

+6.5

SIU

L 67-81

−4.5

UNI

L 59-68

+4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

−17.5

MTSU

L 72-77

+8.5

UTA

L 76-84

+21.5

ORST

W 73-69

+5.5

AKR

L 59-97

−0.5

COFC

L 59-78

−4.5

BALL

W 64-52

−20.5

WKU

L 79-80

+11.5

L 58-82

+3.5

BEL

L 78-83

+13.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−10.5

BRAD

L 68-76

−0.5

ILST

L 47-73

−24.5

UNI

L 48-62

−21.5

MUR

L 69-79

−5.5

INST

W 72-69

−4.5

BRAD

L 90-94

+41.5

UIC

L 49-76

−14.5

DRKE

L 78-82

+16.5

UNI

L 55-71

−2.5

INST

L 63-84

+1.5

VAL

L 63-70

−3.5

ILST

W 88-80

+30.5

SIU

L 60-86

+3.5

UIC

L 46-84

−10.5

MUR

L 75-88

+9.5

BEL

L 64-98

+9.5

VAL

W 80-79

+21.5

SIU

L 67-81

+8.5

UNI

L 59-68

−0.5

over 15under 15avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Memphis

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W L L L L W W W L L L W W W L W W L L W L W W L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W L W W W W W L W L W L L L L W L L W L W W L L L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

U O O U U U O U O U U O U O O U O U U O O O U O O U U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsSF	W 76-70	-2.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 146
Nov 11	@MISS	L 77-83	+9.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 160
Nov 16	vsUNLV	L 78-92	-9.5	L −23.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsPUR	L 71-80	+14.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 21	vsWAKE	L 68-69	+2.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsSIU	W 74-58	-10.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 3	vsNOLA	W 86-70	-14.5	W +1.5	149.5	O 156
Dec 6	vsBAY	W 78-71	+3.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 149
Dec 13	@LOU	L 73-99	+16.5	L −9.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 17	vsVAN	L 70-77	+9.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 147
Dec 20	@MSST	L 66-71	+3.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 22	vsALST	W 88-67	-20.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 31	vsUNT	W 57-48	-9.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 105
Jan 3	@RICE	W 76-70	-7.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 146
Jan 11	@FAU	L 78-89	+1.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 167
Jan 14	vsTEM	W 55-53	-7.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 108
Jan 18	vsUTSA	W 95-69	-20.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 164
Jan 21	@TLSA	L 66-83	+6.5	L −10.5	153.5	U 149
Jan 24	@WICH	L 59-74	+3.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 133
Jan 29	vsFAU	W 92-65	-3.5	W +23.5	152.5	O 157
Feb 1	vsTULN	L 76-78	-8.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 154
Feb 5	@UAB	W 90-80	+1.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 170
Feb 8	vsCLT	W 77-54	-10.5	W +12.5	144.5	U 131
Feb 12	@UNT	L 69-76	-2.5	L −9.5	138.5	O 145
Feb 14	@USU	L 75-99	+13.5	L −10.5	155.5	O 174
Feb 19	@USF	L 66-87	+9.5	L −11.5	163.5	U 153
Feb 22	vsUAB	L 67-78	-5.5	L −16.5	152.5	U 145
Feb 26	vsWICH	L 82-88	-1.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 170
Mar 1	@ECU	L 68-84	-4.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 152
Mar 5	vsUSF	L 89-96	+7.5	W +0.5	163.5	O 185
Mar 8	@TULN	W 96-95	-2.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 191
Mar 11	vsTULN	L 69-81	-4.5	L −16.5	151.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-70

+3.5

MISS

L 77-83

+3.5

UNLV

L 78-92

−23.5

PUR

L 71-80

+5.5

WAKE

L 68-69

+1.5

SIU

W 74-58

+5.5

NOLA

W 86-70

+1.5

BAY

W 78-71

+10.5

LOU

L 73-99

−9.5

VAN

L 70-77

+2.5

MSST

L 66-71

−1.5

ALST

W 88-67

+0.5

UNT

W 57-48

−0.5

RICE

W 76-70

−1.5

FAU

L 78-89

−9.5

TEM

W 55-53

−5.5

UTSA

W 95-69

+5.5

TLSA

L 66-83

−10.5

WICH

L 59-74

−11.5

FAU

W 92-65

+23.5

TULN

L 76-78

−10.5

UAB

W 90-80

+11.5

CLT

W 77-54

+12.5

UNT

L 69-76

−9.5

USU

L 75-99

−10.5

USF

L 66-87

−11.5

UAB

L 67-78

−16.5

WICH

L 82-88

−7.5

ECU

L 68-84

−20.5

USF

L 89-96

+0.5

TULN

W 96-95

−1.5

TULN

L 69-81

−16.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-70

−11.5

MISS

L 77-83

+7.5

UNLV

L 78-92

+6.5

PUR

L 71-80

−5.5

WAKE

L 68-69

−23.5

SIU

W 74-58

−24.5

NOLA

W 86-70

+6.5

BAY

W 78-71

−9.5

LOU

L 73-99

+9.5

VAN

L 70-77

−12.5

MSST

L 66-71

−16.5

ALST

W 88-67

+3.5

UNT

W 57-48

−32.5

RICE

W 76-70

+1.5

FAU

L 78-89

+14.5

TEM

W 55-53

−35.5

UTSA

W 95-69

+16.5

TLSA

L 66-83

−4.5

WICH

L 59-74

−12.5

FAU

W 92-65

+4.5

TULN

L 76-78

+2.5

UAB

W 90-80

+14.5

CLT

W 77-54

−13.5

UNT

L 69-76

+6.5

USU

L 75-99

+18.5

USF

L 66-87

−10.5

UAB

L 67-78

−7.5

WICH

L 82-88

+20.5

ECU

L 68-84

−0.5

USF

L 89-96

+21.5

TULN

W 96-95

+36.5

TULN

L 69-81

−1.5

over 16under 16avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Memphis has the better starters

Position by position: Evansville 0, Memphis 3, even 2

EvansvilleBetterMemphis

G B. Quinet8.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31

MEMBig

G L. Almodovar TR14.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 80

G M. Langenfeld TR2.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

No call

G B. Cummings TR12.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 84

F A. Casey13.9 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast Score 86

Even

G J. Reid TR10.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 5 ast Score 83

F G. Winther TR7.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 51

MEMBig

F T. Weeks TR20.1 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88

F J. Dyson-Merwe2.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8

MEMBig

F C. Williams TR11.7 pts · 9.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 68

EvansvilleBetterMemphis

EVAN offense277th of 366 · -8.5

MEMBig

MEM defense116th of 366 · -1.5

EVAN defense220th of 366 · -5.7

MEMBig

MEM offense62nd of 366 · +2.6

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

MEMBig

Backcourt+4.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt+0.8 · 3 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+4.1 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+4.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestEVAN betterMEM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Evansville

Guards

B. Quinet27 minM. Langenfeld7 min · TRM. RiekNewL. EllspermannNewA. GutmanNewR. MasumyanNew

Forwards

A. Casey30 minG. Winther22 min · TRJ. Dyson-Merwe13 minD. NejezchlebNewY. PinasNewJ. GenschawNew

Memphis

Guards

L. Almodovar28 min · TRB. Cummings26 min · TRJ. Reid26 min · TRJ. Thedford20 minJ. Holloway13 min · TRP. PoundsNew

Forwards

T. Weeks34 min · TRC. Williams33 min · TRR. Vavers25 min · TRJ. Deng13 min · TRM. Logue11 min · TRW. Whorton9 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

EVAN65.8 #347

MEM75.2 #158

Points per possession

EVAN0.97 #344

MEM1.04 #264

Pace (possessions)

EVAN67.9 #232

MEM71.9 #37

Shooting

Effective FG%

EVAN49.3 #280

MEM48.7 #298

3-point %

EVAN32.3 #268

MEM31.6 #303

3-point attempt rate

EVAN43.1 #109

MEM33.7 #305

Free throw rate

EVAN29.8 #315

MEM34.7 #190

Possessions

Turnover rate

EVAN19.1 #324

MEM18.9 #316

Offensive rebound rate

EVAN22.0 #355

MEM35.3 #41

Assists per game

EVAN12.6 #245

MEM13.3 #193

Defense

Points allowed

EVAN78.3 #275

MEM76.6 #234

Points allowed per possession

EVAN1.15 #329

MEM1.07 #124

Opponent effective FG%

EVAN55.1 #332

MEM48.7 #55

Opponent 3-point %

EVAN37.6 #351

MEM30.6 #22

Turnovers forced

EVAN15.4 #258

MEM18.6 #69

Defensive rebound rate

EVAN69.8 #170

MEM64.3 #350

Steals per game

EVAN5.0 #335

MEM8.4 #19

Blocks per game

EVAN3.3 #171

MEM4.3 #49

EVAN		MEM
Scoring
65.8 #347	Points per game	75.2 #158
0.97 #344	Points per possession	1.04 #264
67.9 #232	Pace (possessions)	71.9 #37
Shooting
49.3 #280	Effective FG%	48.7 #298
32.3 #268	3-point %	31.6 #303
43.1 #109	3-point attempt rate	33.7 #305
29.8 #315	Free throw rate	34.7 #190
Possessions
19.1 #324	Turnover rate	18.9 #316
22.0 #355	Offensive rebound rate	35.3 #41
12.6 #245	Assists per game	13.3 #193
Defense
78.3 #275	Points allowed	76.6 #234
1.15 #329	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #124
55.1 #332	Opponent effective FG%	48.7 #55
37.6 #351	Opponent 3-point %	30.6 #22
15.4 #258	Turnovers forced	18.6 #69
69.8 #170	Defensive rebound rate	64.3 #350
5.0 #335	Steals per game	8.4 #19
3.3 #171	Blocks per game	4.3 #49

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Evansville

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northern Iowa59–68
Lvs S Illinois67–81
Wvs Valparaiso80–79
L@ Belmont64–98
L@ Murray St75–88

A week or more of rest.

Memphis

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tulane69–81
W@ Tulane96–95
Lvs South Florida89–96
L@ East Carolina68–84
Lvs Wichita St82–88

A week or more of rest.

Evansville Purple Aces at Memphis Tigers

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Evansville

Memphis

Memphis has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Evansville

Memphis