1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 22
  3. FAIR @ LIU
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 22

Fairfield Stags at Long Island University Sharks

Brooklyn Athletic Center · at Long Island
#239FAIRFairfield
@
#324LIULong Island
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
FAIRThis seasonLIU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FAIR 72–71 · win probability FAIR 54%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 142.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FAIR has more of the edges

FAIR 4, LIU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FAIRBig
LIU offense vs FAIR defense
Offense 339th of 366 against a defense 195th, on the model’s ratings
LIUBig
Three-pointers
FAIR hits 33.2% and allows 34.3%; LIU hits 35.8% and allows 32.2%. Threes are 35.4% and 29.3% of their shots
LIUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: FAIR 48.8 and allows 51.0; LIU 52.8 and allows 50.0
FAIRBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: FAIR 35.8%, LIU 33.9%. Defensive: FAIR 70.9%, LIU 67.0%
FAIRSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: FAIR 53%, LIU 6%. Transfers in: FAIR 2, LIU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
FAIR has played the 359th-hardest schedule, LIU the 290th. A record against a soft schedule means less
FAIRSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: FAIR 15.4%, LIU 19.0%. Forced: FAIR 16.8%, LIU 18.7%
LIUSmall
Home court
LIU at home. This season: LIU 0-0 at home, FAIR 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: FAIR plays 67.3 a game (263rd fastest), LIU 68.5 (206th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: FAIR 27.7, LIU 34.0. Allowed: FAIR 30.4, LIU 34.7
Even
FAIR offense vs LIU defense
Offense 282nd of 366 against a defense 283rd, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FAIR -1.2—
Total—142.2—
Projected score—FAIR 71.7 · LIU 70.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFAIR -0.8—
1H total66.5—
1H projected scoreFAIR 33.7 · LIU 32.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Fairfield has the better starters

Position by position: Fairfield 2, Long Island 0, even 3
FairfieldBetterLong Island
G D. Wucherpfennig11.8 pts · 8.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 71
FAIRBig
G J. Pickett TR5.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 2
G T. Williams6.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19
Even
G K. Jones TR4.4 pts · 1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 13
G E. Mejia4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 11
No call
G D. Davis TR0.7 pts · 0.3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
G H. Rawlins3.6 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 4
No call
G D. Jean-Charles TR0.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
F Q. Martin TR12.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
FAIRBig
F J. Johnson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33
FairfieldBetterLong Island
FAIR offense282nd of 366 · -8.7
Even
LIU defense283rd of 366 · -7.1
FAIR defense195th of 366 · -4.8
FAIRBig
LIU offense339th of 366 · -11.1
Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt-6.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
FAIRSmall
Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player
Bench-2.2 · 5 players
Even
Bench-1.6 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestFAIR betterLIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Fairfield
Guards
D. Wucherpfennig32 minT. Williams20 minE. Mejia19 minH. Rawlins17 minN. Rodriguez7 minJ. Ganton2 min
Forwards
Q. Martin32 min · TRM. Radunovic9 min · TRI. Munkadi9 minP. SmithNewO. SackoNewB. JonesNew
Long Island
Guards
J. Pickett27 min · TRK. Jones11 min · TRD. Davis9 min · TRD. Jean-Charles9 min · TRM. Ndlovu-Fraser8 minV. AlletteNew
Forwards
J. Johnson15 min · TRJ. Howard7 min · TRX. Li4 minM. BewleyNewR. BewleyNewT. BowlesNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
FAIRLIU
Scoring
72.9 #226Points per game73.6 #214
1.09 #166Points per possession1.08 #185
67.3 #263Pace (possessions)68.5 #206
Shooting
48.8 #294Effective FG%52.8 #112
33.2 #2163-point %35.8 #67
35.4 #2623-point attempt rate29.3 #354
27.7 #346Free throw rate34.0 #207
Possessions
15.4 #96Turnover rate19.0 #320
35.8 #29Offensive rebound rate33.9 #70
12.1 #277Assists per game13.7 #170
Defense
71.9 #104Points allowed71.7 #99
1.06 #118Points allowed per possession1.04 #80
51.0 #159Opponent effective FG%50.0 #102
34.3 #200Opponent 3-point %32.2 #72
16.8 #169Turnovers forced18.7 #61
70.9 #116Defensive rebound rate67.0 #299
6.5 #183Steals per game7.8 #56
3.5 #145Blocks per game5.4 #9
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Fairfield

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Siena61–76
  • Wvs Saint Peter's74–55
  • Wvs Manhattan71–60
  • Lvs Mount St Marys47–69
  • Wvs Siena72–58

A week or more of rest.

Long Island

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 18-3 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona58–92
  • Wvs Mercyhurst79–70
  • Wvs Wagner64–56
  • Wvs Chicago St79–75
  • Wvs FDU74–60

A week or more of rest.