Memphis Tigers vs Penn State Nittany Lions: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 25, 5:00 PM ETImperial Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Memphis and Penn State
MEM	This season	PSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PSU 79–78 · win probability PSU 53%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 157.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

MEM 3, PSU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MEMBig

Three-pointers

MEM hits 31.6% and allows 30.6%; PSU hits 32.4% and allows 38.8%. Threes are 33.7% and 38.0% of their shots

PSUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MEM 34.7, PSU 33.8. Allowed: MEM 42.4, PSU 27.5

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: MEM plays 71.9 a game (37th fastest), PSU 67.5 (255th). Faster games mean more points

PSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MEM 18.9%, PSU 15.6%. Forced: MEM 18.6%, PSU 17.7%

MEMSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MEM 35.3%, PSU 25.9%. Defensive: MEM 64.3%, PSU 68.8%

MEMSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MEM 48.7 and allows 48.7; PSU 53.0 and allows 58.4

PSUSmall

PSU offense vs MEM defense

Offense 70th of 366 against a defense 116th, on the model’s ratings

Even

MEM offense vs PSU defense

Offense 62nd of 366 against a defense 101st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MEM 15%, PSU 27%. Transfers in: MEM 9, PSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

MEM has played the 81st-hardest schedule, PSU the 63rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PSU -0.9	—
Total	—	157.3	—
Projected score	—	MEM 78.2 · PSU 79.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PSU -0.4	—
1H total	73.5	—
1H projected score	MEM 36.5 · PSU 37	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MEM LLWLL	14-18	44%	2-1	—
PSU LWLLL	12-20	38%	1-3	—

Venue/role: MEM neutral site; PSU neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM OUOOU	16-16	50%	13-19
PSU OUOUU	18-14	56%	12-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
PSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Memphis

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs DAY	No recent meeting
Dec 2	vs JKST	W94–77LO
Dec 5	@ BAY	W78–71WU

Penn State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs UALB	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs NEB	L64–87LO
Dec 12	@ ILL	L65–73WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Memphis

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W L L L L W W W L L L W W W L W W L L W L W W L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W L W W W W W L W L W L L L L W L L W L W W L L L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

U O O U U U O U O U U O U O O U O U U O O O U O O U U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsSF	W 76-70	-2.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 146
Nov 11	@MISS	L 77-83	+9.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 160
Nov 16	vsUNLV	L 78-92	-9.5	L −23.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsPUR	L 71-80	+14.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 21	vsWAKE	L 68-69	+2.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsSIU	W 74-58	-10.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 3	vsNOLA	W 86-70	-14.5	W +1.5	149.5	O 156
Dec 6	vsBAY	W 78-71	+3.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 149
Dec 13	@LOU	L 73-99	+16.5	L −9.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 17	vsVAN	L 70-77	+9.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 147
Dec 20	@MSST	L 66-71	+3.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 22	vsALST	W 88-67	-20.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 31	vsUNT	W 57-48	-9.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 105
Jan 3	@RICE	W 76-70	-7.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 146
Jan 11	@FAU	L 78-89	+1.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 167
Jan 14	vsTEM	W 55-53	-7.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 108
Jan 18	vsUTSA	W 95-69	-20.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 164
Jan 21	@TLSA	L 66-83	+6.5	L −10.5	153.5	U 149
Jan 24	@WICH	L 59-74	+3.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 133
Jan 29	vsFAU	W 92-65	-3.5	W +23.5	152.5	O 157
Feb 1	vsTULN	L 76-78	-8.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 154
Feb 5	@UAB	W 90-80	+1.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 170
Feb 8	vsCLT	W 77-54	-10.5	W +12.5	144.5	U 131
Feb 12	@UNT	L 69-76	-2.5	L −9.5	138.5	O 145
Feb 14	@USU	L 75-99	+13.5	L −10.5	155.5	O 174
Feb 19	@USF	L 66-87	+9.5	L −11.5	163.5	U 153
Feb 22	vsUAB	L 67-78	-5.5	L −16.5	152.5	U 145
Feb 26	vsWICH	L 82-88	-1.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 170
Mar 1	@ECU	L 68-84	-4.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 152
Mar 5	vsUSF	L 89-96	+7.5	W +0.5	163.5	O 185
Mar 8	@TULN	W 96-95	-2.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 191
Mar 11	vsTULN	L 69-81	-4.5	L −16.5	151.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-70

+3.5

MISS

L 77-83

+3.5

UNLV

L 78-92

−23.5

PUR

L 71-80

+5.5

WAKE

L 68-69

+1.5

SIU

W 74-58

+5.5

NOLA

W 86-70

+1.5

BAY

W 78-71

+10.5

LOU

L 73-99

−9.5

VAN

L 70-77

+2.5

MSST

L 66-71

−1.5

ALST

W 88-67

+0.5

UNT

W 57-48

−0.5

RICE

W 76-70

−1.5

FAU

L 78-89

−9.5

TEM

W 55-53

−5.5

UTSA

W 95-69

+5.5

TLSA

L 66-83

−10.5

WICH

L 59-74

−11.5

FAU

W 92-65

+23.5

TULN

L 76-78

−10.5

UAB

W 90-80

+11.5

CLT

W 77-54

+12.5

UNT

L 69-76

−9.5

USU

L 75-99

−10.5

USF

L 66-87

−11.5

UAB

L 67-78

−16.5

WICH

L 82-88

−7.5

ECU

L 68-84

−20.5

USF

L 89-96

+0.5

TULN

W 96-95

−1.5

TULN

L 69-81

−16.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-70

−11.5

MISS

L 77-83

+7.5

UNLV

L 78-92

+6.5

PUR

L 71-80

−5.5

WAKE

L 68-69

−23.5

SIU

W 74-58

−24.5

NOLA

W 86-70

+6.5

BAY

W 78-71

−9.5

LOU

L 73-99

+9.5

VAN

L 70-77

−12.5

MSST

L 66-71

−16.5

ALST

W 88-67

+3.5

UNT

W 57-48

−32.5

RICE

W 76-70

+1.5

FAU

L 78-89

+14.5

TEM

W 55-53

−35.5

UTSA

W 95-69

+16.5

TLSA

L 66-83

−4.5

WICH

L 59-74

−12.5

FAU

W 92-65

+4.5

TULN

L 76-78

+2.5

UAB

W 90-80

+14.5

CLT

W 77-54

−13.5

UNT

L 69-76

+6.5

USU

L 75-99

+18.5

USF

L 66-87

−10.5

UAB

L 67-78

−7.5

WICH

L 82-88

+20.5

ECU

L 68-84

−0.5

USF

L 89-96

+21.5

TULN

W 96-95

+36.5

TULN

L 69-81

−1.5

over 16under 16avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Penn State

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W W W W L W W W L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L W L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-2038%

L W L W L L L W L L W L L W W W L L L W L W L W W L L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1456%

U U U O O U O U O O O U O U U O U O O O O O O U U O O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAIR	W 76-68	-15.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NHVN	W 87-43	-18.5	W +25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsNAVY	W 80-71	-11.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsLAS	W 83-69	-8.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 19	vsHARV	W 84-80	-12.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsPROV	L 65-77	+3.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsBU	W 96-87	-14.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	vsSHU	W 90-59	-14.5	W +16.5	160.5	U 149
Dec 2	vsCAM	W 87-76	-14.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 9	@IU	L 72-113	+14.5	L −26.5	152.5	O 185
Dec 13	vsMSU	L 72-76	+12.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 21	vsPITT	L 46-80	-1.5	L −35.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 29	vsNCCU	W 90-67	-23.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 157
Jan 3	vsILL	L 65-73	+14.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 138
Jan 6	vsMICH	L 72-74	+24.5	W +22.5	169.5	U 146
Jan 10	@PUR	L 85-93	+22.5	W +14.5	152.5	O 178
Jan 14	vsUCLA	L 60-71	+4.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 18	@MD	L 73-96	+1.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 169
Jan 22	vsWIS	L 71-98	+5.5	L −21.5	157.5	O 169
Jan 26	@OSU	L 78-84	+11.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 29	@NU	L 73-94	+7.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 167
Feb 1	vsMINN	W 77-75	+2.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 5	@MICH	L 69-110	+26.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 179
Feb 8	vsUSC	L 75-77	+3.5	W +1.5	157.5	U 152
Feb 11	@WASH	W 63-60	+12.5	W +15.5	153.5	U 123
Feb 14	@ORE	L 72-83	+6.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 18	vsRUTG	L 72-85	-4.5	L −17.5	148.5	O 157
Feb 21	@NEB	L 64-87	+17.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsIOWA	W 71-69	+9.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 140
Mar 4	vsOSU	L 62-94	+7.5	L −24.5	152.5	O 156
Mar 8	@RUTG	L 62-74	+4.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 136
Mar 10	vsNU	L 66-76	+4.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

+25.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−2.5

LAS

W 83-69

+5.5

HARV

W 84-80

−8.5

PROV

L 65-77

−8.5

W 96-87

−5.5

SHU

W 90-59

+16.5

CAM

W 87-76

−3.5

L 72-113

−26.5

MSU

L 72-76

+8.5

PITT

L 46-80

−35.5

NCCU

W 90-67

−0.5

ILL

L 65-73

+6.5

MICH

L 72-74

+22.5

PUR

L 85-93

+14.5

UCLA

L 60-71

−6.5

L 73-96

−21.5

WIS

L 71-98

−21.5

OSU

L 78-84

+5.5

L 73-94

−13.5

MINN

W 77-75

+4.5

MICH

L 69-110

−14.5

USC

L 75-77

+1.5

WASH

W 63-60

+15.5

ORE

L 72-83

−4.5

RUTG

L 72-85

−17.5

NEB

L 64-87

−5.5

IOWA

W 71-69

+11.5

OSU

L 62-94

−24.5

RUTG

L 62-74

−7.5

L 66-76

−5.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

−13.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−4.5

LAS

W 83-69

+6.5

HARV

W 84-80

+21.5

PROV

L 65-77

−23.5

W 96-87

+40.5

SHU

W 90-59

−11.5

CAM

W 87-76

+8.5

L 72-113

+32.5

MSU

L 72-76

+2.5

PITT

L 46-80

−20.5

NCCU

W 90-67

+6.5

ILL

L 65-73

−18.5

MICH

L 72-74

−23.5

PUR

L 85-93

+25.5

UCLA

L 60-71

−17.5

L 73-96

+20.5

WIS

L 71-98

+11.5

OSU

L 78-84

+8.5

L 73-94

+18.5

MINN

W 77-75

+9.5

MICH

L 69-110

+17.5

USC

L 75-77

−5.5

WASH

W 63-60

−30.5

ORE

L 72-83

+9.5

RUTG

L 72-85

+8.5

NEB

L 64-87

+3.5

IOWA

W 71-69

−3.5

OSU

L 62-94

+3.5

RUTG

L 62-74

−13.5

L 66-76

−1.5

over 18under 14avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Memphis has the better starters

Position by position: Memphis 3, Penn State 0, even 2

MemphisBetterPenn State

G L. Almodovar TR14.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 80

MEMBig

G D. Bowen TR11.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.9 ast Score 45

G B. Cummings TR12.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 84

MEMBig

G J. Rodgers TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 6.9 ast Score 49

G J. Reid TR10.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 5 ast Score 83

MEMSmall

F B. Byers TR14.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55

F T. Weeks TR20.1 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88

Even

F J. Reed11.5 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 82

F C. Williams TR11.7 pts · 9.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 68

Even

F I. Juric10.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 61

MemphisBetterPenn State

MEM offense62nd of 366 · +2.6

Even

PSU defense101st of 366 · -0.8

MEM defense116th of 366 · -1.5

Even

PSU offense70th of 366 · +1.7

Backcourt+4.5 · 3 players

MEMBig

Backcourt-1.9 · 2 players

Frontcourt+4.1 · 2 players

MEMSmall

Frontcourt+2.2 · 3 players

Bench+4.4 · 5 players

MEMSmall

Bench+2.1 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestMEM betterPSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Memphis

Guards

L. Almodovar28 min · TRB. Cummings26 min · TRJ. Reid26 min · TRJ. Thedford20 minJ. Holloway13 min · TRP. PoundsNew

Forwards

T. Weeks34 min · TRC. Williams33 min · TRR. Vavers25 min · TRJ. Deng13 min · TRM. Logue11 min · TRW. Whorton9 min

Penn State

Guards

D. Bowen35 min · TRJ. Rodgers30 min · TRR. Blums23 min · TRT. AllardNewR. GrodinNewA. GemaoNew

Forwards

B. Byers32 min · TRJ. Reed28 minI. Juric26 minT. Oboh22 min · TRR. PrkacinNewF. WibautNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MEM75.2 #158

PSU73.7 #211

Points per possession

MEM1.04 #264

PSU1.09 #148

Pace (possessions)

MEM71.9 #37

PSU67.5 #255

Shooting

Effective FG%

MEM48.7 #298

PSU53.0 #102

3-point %

MEM31.6 #303

PSU32.4 #263

3-point attempt rate

MEM33.7 #305

PSU38.0 #214

Free throw rate

MEM34.7 #190

PSU33.8 #219

Possessions

Turnover rate

MEM18.9 #316

PSU15.6 #113

Offensive rebound rate

MEM35.3 #41

PSU25.9 #325

Assists per game

MEM13.3 #193

PSU12.7 #238

Defense

Points allowed

MEM76.6 #234

PSU79.3 #308

Points allowed per possession

MEM1.07 #124

PSU1.17 #345

Opponent effective FG%

MEM48.7 #55

PSU58.4 #363

Opponent 3-point %

MEM30.6 #22

PSU38.8 #363

Turnovers forced

MEM18.6 #69

PSU17.7 #115

Defensive rebound rate

MEM64.3 #350

PSU68.8 #210

Steals per game

MEM8.4 #19

PSU6.9 #132

Blocks per game

MEM4.3 #49

PSU1.7 #357

MEM		PSU
Scoring
75.2 #158	Points per game	73.7 #211
1.04 #264	Points per possession	1.09 #148
71.9 #37	Pace (possessions)	67.5 #255
Shooting
48.7 #298	Effective FG%	53.0 #102
31.6 #303	3-point %	32.4 #263
33.7 #305	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #214
34.7 #190	Free throw rate	33.8 #219
Possessions
18.9 #316	Turnover rate	15.6 #113
35.3 #41	Offensive rebound rate	25.9 #325
13.3 #193	Assists per game	12.7 #238
Defense
76.6 #234	Points allowed	79.3 #308
1.07 #124	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #345
48.7 #55	Opponent effective FG%	58.4 #363
30.6 #22	Opponent 3-point %	38.8 #363
18.6 #69	Turnovers forced	17.7 #115
64.3 #350	Defensive rebound rate	68.8 #210
8.4 #19	Steals per game	6.9 #132
4.3 #49	Blocks per game	1.7 #357

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Memphis

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tulane69–81
W@ Tulane96–95
Lvs South Florida89–96
L@ East Carolina68–84
Lvs Wichita St82–88

A week or more of rest.

Penn State

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northwestern66–76
L@ Rutgers62–74
Lvs Ohio State62–94
Wvs Iowa71–69
L@ Nebraska64–87

A week or more of rest.

Memphis Tigers vs Penn State Nittany Lions

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Memphis

Penn State

Memphis has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Memphis

Penn State