1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 1
  3. UALB @ PSU
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 1

UAlbany Great Danes at Penn State Nittany Lions

Bryce Jordan Center · at Penn State
#301UALBUAlbany
@
#78PSUPenn State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UALBThis seasonPSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PSU 86–63 · win probability PSU 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PSU has more of the edges

UALB 1, PSU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
PSUBig
UALB offense vs PSU defense
Offense 313th of 366 against a defense 101st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UALB has played the 260th-hardest schedule, PSU the 63rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
PSUBig
PSU offense vs UALB defense
Offense 70th of 366 against a defense 259th, on the model’s ratings
PSUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UALB 24.9, PSU 33.8. Allowed: UALB 35.7, PSU 27.5
PSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UALB 18.5%, PSU 15.6%. Forced: UALB 15.8%, PSU 17.7%
UALBSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UALB 32.7%, PSU 25.9%. Defensive: UALB 67.6%, PSU 68.8%
PSUSmall
Home court
PSU at home. This season: PSU 0-0 at home, UALB 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
UALB hits 32.6% and allows 36.0%; PSU hits 32.4% and allows 38.8%. Threes are 37.6% and 38.0% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: UALB plays 65.6 a game (324th fastest), PSU 67.5 (255th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UALB 38%, PSU 27%. Transfers in: UALB 3, PSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UALB 51.4 and allows 53.2; PSU 53.0 and allows 58.4
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PSU -22.7—
Total—149.0—
Projected score—UALB 63.1 · PSU 85.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPSU -13.4—
1H total69.7—
1H projected scoreUALB 28.1 · PSU 41.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Penn State has the better starters

Position by position: UAlbany 0, Penn State 3, even 2
UAlbanyBetterPenn State
G A. Fall9.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 27
PSUSmall
G D. Bowen TR11.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.9 ast Score 45
G Z. Matulu9.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 48
Even
G J. Rodgers TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 6.9 ast Score 49
G P. Santos TR6.9 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51
Even
F B. Byers TR14.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55
G M. Rose2.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 1
PSUBig
F J. Reed11.5 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 82
F B. Michaels TR1.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3
PSUBig
F I. Juric10.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 61
UAlbanyBetterPenn State
UALB offense313th of 366 · -10.0
PSUBig
PSU defense101st of 366 · -0.8
UALB defense259th of 366 · -6.7
PSUBig
PSU offense70th of 366 · +1.7
Backcourt-6.0 · 4 players
PSUBig
Backcourt-1.9 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player
PSUBig
Frontcourt+2.2 · 3 players
Bench-0.2 · 1 player
PSUSmall
Bench+2.1 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestUALB betterPSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UAlbany
Guards
A. Fall31 minZ. Matulu30 minP. Santos19 min · TRM. Rose15 minP. KountaNewO. EngenNew
Forwards
B. Michaels13 min · TRE. BussingNewP. MiovicNewU. GrahamNew
Centers
K. Webb3 min · TRC. SmithNew
Penn State
Guards
D. Bowen35 min · TRJ. Rodgers30 min · TRR. Blums23 min · TRT. AllardNewR. GrodinNewA. GemaoNew
Forwards
B. Byers32 min · TRJ. Reed28 minI. Juric26 minT. Oboh22 min · TRR. PrkacinNewF. WibautNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UALBPSU
Scoring
68.7 #302Points per game73.7 #211
1.05 #259Points per possession1.09 #148
65.6 #324Pace (possessions)67.5 #255
Shooting
51.4 #182Effective FG%53.0 #102
32.6 #2483-point %32.4 #263
37.6 #2203-point attempt rate38.0 #214
24.9 #364Free throw rate33.8 #219
Possessions
18.5 #299Turnover rate15.6 #113
32.7 #99Offensive rebound rate25.9 #325
12.8 #232Assists per game12.7 #238
Defense
74.5 #176Points allowed79.3 #308
1.14 #302Points allowed per possession1.17 #345
53.2 #275Opponent effective FG%58.4 #363
36.0 #302Opponent 3-point %38.8 #363
15.8 #228Turnovers forced17.7 #115
67.6 #277Defensive rebound rate68.8 #210
6.7 #153Steals per game6.9 #132
3.9 #82Blocks per game1.7 #357
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UAlbany

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMass Lowell76–81
  • L@ Vermont56–69
  • Wvs New Hampshire84–61
  • Lvs Maine59–70
  • L@ UMBC62–66

A week or more of rest.

Penn State

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Northwestern66–76
  • L@ Rutgers62–74
  • Lvs Ohio State62–94
  • Wvs Iowa71–69
  • L@ Nebraska64–87

A week or more of rest.