UNC Wilmington Seahawks at Norfolk State Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM ETJoseph G. Echols Hall · at Norfolk St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UNC Wilmington and Norfolk St
UNCW	This season	NORF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNCW 79–67 · win probability UNCW 84%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNCW has more of the edges

UNCW 7, NORF 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNCWBig

NORF offense vs UNCW defense

Offense 314th of 366 against a defense 119th, on the model’s ratings

UNCWBig

UNCW offense vs NORF defense

Offense 131st of 366 against a defense 301st, on the model’s ratings

UNCWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNCW 35.3%, NORF 32.5%. Defensive: UNCW 72.4%, NORF 67.7%

Context

Schedule so far

UNCW has played the 228th-hardest schedule, NORF the 343rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

UNCWBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNCW 50.4 and allows 47.5; NORF 49.3 and allows 51.7

UNCWSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNCW 40.4, NORF 43.5. Allowed: UNCW 31.7, NORF 45.3

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: UNCW plays 66.1 a game (310th fastest), NORF 69.1 (172nd). Faster games mean more points

NORFSmall

Home court

NORF at home. This season: NORF 0-0 at home, UNCW 0-0 away

UNCWSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNCW 35%, NORF 8%. Transfers in: UNCW 4, NORF 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UNCWSmall

Three-pointers

UNCW hits 35.0% and allows 29.7%; NORF hits 34.2% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 38.8% and 30.6% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNCW 14.9%, NORF 18.7%. Forced: UNCW 14.9%, NORF 18.8%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNCW -11.4	—
Total	—	145.8	—
Projected score	—	UNCW 78.6 · NORF 67.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCW -6.9	—
1H total	68.2	—
1H projected score	UNCW 37.6 · NORF 30.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNCW LWLWL	16-16	50%	8-6	—
NORF WWLLL	13-15	46%	4-5	—

Venue/role: UNCW away; NORF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNCW OUOUO	18-14	56%	25-7
NORF OOOOO	18-10	64%	11-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNCW	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
NORF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UNC Wilmington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs STMN	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs PRIN	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs LIB	No recent meeting

Norfolk St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	@ NCSU	No recent meeting
Nov 29	@ WASH	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ SEA	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNCW 0–1 NORFNORF leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UNCW 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 1, 2021-22	NORF 74 @ UNCW 69	UNCW -5	NORF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UNC Wilmington

32 games played

Straight up

25-7

78% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-778%

L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W L W W L W W W W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

L L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L L L W W L W W W W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

O U U O U O O U O O U O U U O O O U O O O U U U O U O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@KENT	L 77-86	+3.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsUPST	W 73-60	-14.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsECU	W 85-60	-6.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 145
Nov 21	@RAD	W 81-73	-4.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsSELA	W 70-57	-11.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 127
Nov 28	vsNAVY	W 87-57	-8.5	W +21.5	138.5	O 144
Nov 29	vsGWEB	W 88-62	-18.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 3	vsMRSH	W 70-69	-8.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 6	@UL	W 70-63	-12.5	L −5.5	130.5	O 133
Dec 13	@VAL	W 73-70	-4.5	L −1.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 20	vsHOW	L 66-67	-15.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 133
Dec 29	@NCAT	W 87-78	-10.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 31	vsDREX	W 65-53	-12.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 118
Jan 3	vsHAMP	W 49-45	-12.5	L −8.5	140.5	U 94
Jan 8	@NE	W 87-78	-4.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 165
Jan 10	@STBK	W 75-71	-6.5	L −2.5	133.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsCAM	W 78-75	-6.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 153
Jan 22	@W&M	L 70-77	+2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 147
Jan 24	@HAMP	W 75-67	-4.5	W +3.5	136.5	O 142
Jan 29	@TOW	W 82-73	+1.5	W +10.5	135.5	O 155
Feb 5	vsW&M	L 78-85	-4.5	L −11.5	159.5	O 163
Feb 9	@COFC	W 76-64	+1.5	W +13.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 12	vsELON	W 65-54	-8.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsHOF	W 70-66	-2.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 19	vsMONM	W 79-69	-7.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Feb 21	@CAM	W 73-68	-3.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 141
Feb 26	vsNCAT	W 88-65	-13.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 153
Mar 1	vsCOFC	L 76-79	-5.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 155
Mar 3	@ELON	W 76-57	-4.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 133
Mar 8	vsCAM	L 70-85	-6.5	L −21.5	149.5	O 155
Mar 17	@YALE	W 68-67	+4.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 135
Mar 21	vsDAY	L 61-80	+3.5	L −15.5	138.5	O 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

−5.5

UPST

W 73-60

−1.5

ECU

W 85-60

+18.5

RAD

W 81-73

+3.5

SELA

W 70-57

+1.5

NAVY

W 87-57

+21.5

GWEB

W 88-62

+7.5

MRSH

W 70-69

−7.5

W 70-63

−5.5

VAL

W 73-70

−1.5

HOW

L 66-67

−16.5

NCAT

W 87-78

−1.5

DREX

W 65-53

−0.5

HAMP

W 49-45

−8.5

W 87-78

+4.5

STBK

W 75-71

−2.5

CAM

W 78-75

−3.5

W&M

L 70-77

−4.5

HAMP

W 75-67

+3.5

TOW

W 82-73

+10.5

W&M

L 78-85

−11.5

COFC

W 76-64

+13.5

ELON

W 65-54

+2.5

HOF

W 70-66

+1.5

MONM

W 79-69

+2.5

CAM

W 73-68

+1.5

NCAT

W 88-65

+9.5

COFC

L 76-79

−8.5

ELON

W 76-57

+14.5

CAM

L 70-85

−21.5

YALE

W 68-67

+5.5

DAY

L 61-80

−15.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

+6.5

UPST

W 73-60

−22.5

ECU

W 85-60

−0.5

RAD

W 81-73

+2.5

SELA

W 70-57

−10.5

NAVY

W 87-57

+5.5

GWEB

W 88-62

+2.5

MRSH

W 70-69

−11.5

W 70-63

+2.5

VAL

W 73-70

+6.5

HOW

L 66-67

−8.5

NCAT

W 87-78

+18.5

DREX

W 65-53

−19.5

HAMP

W 49-45

−46.5

W 87-78

+22.5

STBK

W 75-71

+12.5

CAM

W 78-75

+3.5

W&M

L 70-77

−12.5

HAMP

W 75-67

+5.5

TOW

W 82-73

+19.5

W&M

L 78-85

+3.5

COFC

W 76-64

−8.5

ELON

W 65-54

−30.5

HOF

W 70-66

−1.5

MONM

W 79-69

+3.5

CAM

W 73-68

−9.5

NCAT

W 88-65

+6.5

COFC

L 76-79

+8.5

ELON

W 76-57

−12.5

CAM

L 70-85

+5.5

YALE

W 68-67

−13.5

DAY

L 61-80

+2.5

over 18under 14avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Norfolk St

28 games played

Straight up

11-17

39% wins

Against the spread

13-15

46% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-10

64% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1739%

L L L W L L L L L W W L L L W L W W L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1546%

L W W L W L W L L W W L L L L L W W L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1064%

O U U U O O U O O O O O U U U O O O O O U U U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsW&M	L 78-81	+2.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 159
Nov 11	@ODU	L 57-60	+8.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 117
Nov 14	@TOW	L 41-51	+13.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 92
Nov 21	vsHAMP	W 62-60	-2.5	L −0.5	133.5	U 122
Nov 23	@WYO	L 67-75	+15.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 29	@ARIZ	L 61-98	+35.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 159
Dec 6	@JMU	L 67-68	+10.5	W +9.5	138.5	U 135
Dec 10	@BAY	L 67-97	+26.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 164
Dec 18	vsGRAM	L 68-80	-1.5	L −13.5	135.5	O 148
Dec 19	vsJKST	W 82-72	-5.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 21	@UTEP	W 72-71	+10.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 22	vsUCI	L 70-89	+11.5	L −7.5	136.5	O 159
Dec 28	@UL	L 54-63	+3.5	L −5.5	126.5	U 117
Jan 3	@NCCU	L 67-69	-1.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 10	@DSU	W 66-64	-4.5	L −2.5	132.5	U 130
Jan 12	vsUMES	L 70-74	-5.5	L −9.5	132.5	O 144
Jan 17	@SCST	W 89-82	-5.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 24	vsCOPP	W 103-76	-13.5	W +13.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 26	vsMORG	L 78-79	-7.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 157
Jan 31	@HOW	L 60-88	+7.5	L −20.5	146.5	O 148
Feb 7	vsNCCU	W 75-68	-4.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 14	vsDSU	W 75-58	-9.5	W +7.5	134.5	U 133
Feb 16	@UMES	W 70-66	-1.5	W +2.5	136.5	U 136
Feb 21	vsSCST	W 90-71	-10.5	W +8.5	140.5	O 161
Feb 28	@COPP	W 75-69	-5.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 2	@MORG	L 84-90	-3.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 174
Mar 5	vsHOW	L 76-84	+6.5	L −1.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 12	vsSCST	L 82-88	-7.5	L −13.5	144.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W&M

L 78-81

−0.5

ODU

L 57-60

+5.5

TOW

L 41-51

+3.5

HAMP

W 62-60

−0.5

WYO

L 67-75

+7.5

ARIZ

L 61-98

−1.5

JMU

L 67-68

+9.5

BAY

L 67-97

−3.5

GRAM

L 68-80

−13.5

JKST

W 82-72

+4.5

UTEP

W 72-71

+11.5

UCI

L 70-89

−7.5

L 54-63

−5.5

NCCU

L 67-69

−3.5

DSU

W 66-64

−2.5

UMES

L 70-74

−9.5

SCST

W 89-82

+1.5

COPP

W 103-76

+13.5

MORG

L 78-79

−8.5

HOW

L 60-88

−20.5

NCCU

W 75-68

+2.5

DSU

W 75-58

+7.5

UMES

W 70-66

+2.5

SCST

W 90-71

+8.5

COPP

W 75-69

+0.5

MORG

L 84-90

−9.5

HOW

L 76-84

−1.5

SCST

L 82-88

−13.5

covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W&M

L 78-81

+0.5

ODU

L 57-60

−32.5

TOW

L 41-51

−46.5

HAMP

W 62-60

−11.5

WYO

L 67-75

+0.5

ARIZ

L 61-98

+12.5

JMU

L 67-68

−3.5

BAY

L 67-97

+15.5

GRAM

L 68-80

+12.5

JKST

W 82-72

+13.5

UTEP

W 72-71

+6.5

UCI

L 70-89

+22.5

L 54-63

−9.5

NCCU

L 67-69

−5.5

DSU

W 66-64

−2.5

UMES

L 70-74

+11.5

SCST

W 89-82

+31.5

COPP

W 103-76

+35.5

MORG

L 78-79

+4.5

HOW

L 60-88

+1.5

NCCU

W 75-68

−5.5

DSU

W 75-58

−1.5

UMES

W 70-66

−0.5

SCST

W 90-71

+20.5

COPP

W 75-69

+3.5

MORG

L 84-90

+17.5

HOW

L 76-84

+10.5

SCST

L 82-88

+25.5

over 18under 10avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UNC Wilmington has the better starters

Position by position: UNC Wilmington 5, Norfolk St 0, even 0

UNC WilmingtonBetterNorfolk St

G W. Kermoury TR13.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 75

UNCWSmall

G B. Laster TR6.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 51

G T. Pettway TR8.8 pts · 2.1 reb · 2 ast Score 64

UNCWBig

G A. Newton3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12

F G. Walsh9.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 57

UNCWBig

F J. Gupton TR7.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 22

F S. Elliott TR4.1 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 23

UNCWSmall

F B. Gardner TR3.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3

C P. Wessler13.5 pts · 9.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 87

UNCWSmall

F J. Riley TR3.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 56

UNC WilmingtonBetterNorfolk St

UNCW offense131st of 366 · -3.7

UNCWBig

NORF defense301st of 366 · -7.7

UNCW defense119th of 366 · -1.8

UNCWBig

NORF offense314th of 366 · -10.1

Backcourt+1.0 · 2 players

UNCWBig

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+2.5 · 3 players

UNCWBig

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

Bench-1.4 · 3 players

NORFSmall

Bench-0.0 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestUNCW betterNORF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UNC Wilmington

Guards

W. Kermoury27 min · TRT. Pettway22 min · TRJ. Lamothe15 minX. Brown12 min · TRM. Smith3 minC. LusterNew

Forwards

G. Walsh26 minS. Elliott17 min · TRT. NelsonNewM. ProdanovicNewW. SewardNew

Centers

P. Wessler27 min

Norfolk St

Guards

B. Laster19 min · TRA. Newton16 minA. Torrence1 minC. WalkerNewD. CamaraNewJ. SkyersNew

Forwards

J. Gupton25 min · TRB. Gardner16 min · TRJ. Riley11 min · TRM. MitchellNew

Centers

J. JordanNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNCW74.6 #174

NORF71.6 #257

Points per possession

UNCW1.13 #84

NORF1.04 #274

Pace (possessions)

UNCW66.1 #310

NORF69.1 #172

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNCW50.4 #220

NORF49.3 #277

3-point %

UNCW35.0 #124

NORF34.2 #157

3-point attempt rate

UNCW38.8 #194

NORF30.6 #347

Free throw rate

UNCW40.4 #54

NORF43.5 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNCW14.9 #57

NORF18.7 #311

Offensive rebound rate

UNCW35.3 #40

NORF32.5 #108

Assists per game

UNCW13.1 #204

NORF11.3 #326

Defense

Points allowed

UNCW68.1 #32

NORF74.7 #181

Points allowed per possession

UNCW1.03 #56

NORF1.08 #160

Opponent effective FG%

UNCW47.5 #30

NORF51.7 #196

Opponent 3-point %

UNCW29.7 #6

NORF32.0 #61

Turnovers forced

UNCW14.9 #297

NORF18.8 #58

Defensive rebound rate

UNCW72.4 #51

NORF67.7 #270

Steals per game

UNCW5.1 #330

NORF6.5 #180

Blocks per game

UNCW2.4 #312

NORF2.8 #264

UNCW		NORF
Scoring
74.6 #174	Points per game	71.6 #257
1.13 #84	Points per possession	1.04 #274
66.1 #310	Pace (possessions)	69.1 #172
Shooting
50.4 #220	Effective FG%	49.3 #277
35.0 #124	3-point %	34.2 #157
38.8 #194	3-point attempt rate	30.6 #347
40.4 #54	Free throw rate	43.5 #13
Possessions
14.9 #57	Turnover rate	18.7 #311
35.3 #40	Offensive rebound rate	32.5 #108
13.1 #204	Assists per game	11.3 #326
Defense
68.1 #32	Points allowed	74.7 #181
1.03 #56	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #160
47.5 #30	Opponent effective FG%	51.7 #196
29.7 #6	Opponent 3-point %	32.0 #61
14.9 #297	Turnovers forced	18.8 #58
72.4 #51	Defensive rebound rate	67.7 #270
5.1 #330	Steals per game	6.5 #180
2.4 #312	Blocks per game	2.8 #264

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UNC Wilmington

25-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-4 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Dayton61–80
W@ Yale68–67
Lvs Campbell70–85
W@ Elon76–57
Lvs Charleston76–79

A week or more of rest.

Norfolk St

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-7 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SC State82–88
Lvs Howard76–84
L@ Morgan St84–90
W@ Coppin St75–69
Wvs SC State90–71

A week or more of rest.

UNC Wilmington Seahawks at Norfolk State Spartans

What could decide it: UNCW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UNC Wilmington

Norfolk St

UNC Wilmington has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UNC Wilmington

Norfolk St