UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at UT Arlington Mavericks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ETCollege Park Center · at UT Arlington

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UT Rio Grande and UT Arlington
RGV	This season	UTA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UTA 73–70 · win probability UTA 60%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UTA has more of the edges

RGV 2, UTA 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UTABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RGV 28.2%, UTA 34.9%. Defensive: RGV 67.9%, UTA 69.9%

RGVBig

Three-pointers

RGV hits 36.8% and allows 30.4%; UTA hits 29.1% and allows 26.9%. Threes are 43.7% and 30.7% of their shots

UTABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: RGV 28.9, UTA 42.5. Allowed: RGV 39.0, UTA 40.9

RGVBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: RGV 54.8 and allows 47.8; UTA 47.2 and allows 47.5

UTASmall

RGV offense vs UTA defense

Offense 297th of 366 against a defense 211th, on the model’s ratings

UTASmall

Home court

UTA at home. This season: UTA 0-0 at home, RGV 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RGV 18.5%, UTA 20.7%. Forced: RGV 16.2%, UTA 18.0%

Even

UTA offense vs RGV defense

Offense 289th of 366 against a defense 265th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

RGV has played the 274th-hardest schedule, UTA the 268th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RGV 9%, UTA 7%. Transfers in: RGV 3, UTA 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: RGV plays 67.3 a game (268th fastest), UTA 67.3 (265th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UTA -3.0	—
Total	—	142.2	—
Projected score	—	RGV 69.6 · UTA 72.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UTA -1.6	—
1H total	66.5	—
1H projected score	RGV 32.4 · UTA 34.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RGV WLWWW	18-13	58%	11-5	—
UTA LWWWW	17-13	57%	7-4	—

Venue/role: RGV away; UTA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RGV UUUOO	13-18	42%	17-14
UTA UUUUU	7-23	23%	16-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RGV	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
UTA	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UT Rio Grande

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ APSU	W63–50WU
Nov 28	@ UNLV	No recent meeting
Dec 3	@ NICH	W86–68WO

UT Arlington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ USM	No recent meeting
Nov 20	@ NWST	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs ORU	W69–57WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

RGV 0–5 UTAUTA leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · UTA has won the last 5 meetings · RGV 0-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 11, 2025-26	UTA 58 @ RGV 50	RGV -4.5	UTA W
Feb 17, 2023-24	UTA 89 @ RGV 70	RGV +9.5	UTA W
Jan 18, 2023-24	RGV 73 @ UTA 91	UTA -10.5	UTA W
Feb 9, 2022-23	UTA 64 @ RGV 58	RGV -2.5	UTA W
Jan 19, 2022-23	RGV 73 @ UTA 85	UTA -4.5	UTA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UT Rio Grande

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg +4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-18

42% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

L W L L L L W L W L L L W L L W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

W W L L W L W L W L L L W L L W L W W W W W W L L W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1842%

O O U U U U U U O O U U O O U O U U U O U O O U U O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BAY	L 81-96	+24.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 177
Nov 8	@SUU	W 95-72	-1.5	W +21.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 11	@BOIS	L 65-85	+16.5	L −3.5	161.5	U 150
Nov 22	@MOST	L 67-74	+3.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 141
Nov 24	@ILL	L 73-87	+33.5	W +19.5	164.5	U 160
Dec 3	@SFA	L 60-73	+6.5	L −6.5	143.5	U 133
Dec 7	vsAPSU	W 63-50	-2.5	W +10.5	151.5	U 113
Dec 11	vsUTA	L 50-58	-4.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 108
Dec 16	@LAM	W 83-72	+3.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 155
Dec 29	vsNOLA	L 69-85	-6.5	L −22.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 31	vsNICH	L 69-71	-3.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 140
Jan 3	vsAMCC	L 59-63	-2.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 122
Jan 5	vsUIW	W 80-67	-1.5	W +11.5	146.5	O 147
Jan 10	@ETAM	L 69-77	-3.5	L −11.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 12	@NWST	L 63-64	-2.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 127
Jan 17	vsMCN	W 79-76	+9.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 155
Jan 19	vsSELA	W 68-65	-5.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 133
Jan 24	@HCU	W 68-51	-2.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 119
Jan 26	@AMCC	W 64-55	+2.5	W +11.5	135.5	U 119
Jan 31	@UIW	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	140.5	O 199
Feb 2	vsHCU	W 74-57	-9.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 131
Feb 7	@NOLA	W 95-76	-1.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 171
Feb 9	@NICH	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	147.5	O 164
Feb 14	vsSFA	L 57-66	+1.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 123
Feb 16	vsLAM	W 70-65	-6.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 21	@SELA	W 96-75	-4.5	W +16.5	138.5	O 171
Feb 23	@MCN	L 68-75	+11.5	W +4.5	146.5	U 143
Feb 28	vsETAM	W 63-55	-10.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 118
Mar 2	vsNWST	W 74-62	-9.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 136
Mar 9	vsNICH	W 86-68	-5.5	W +12.5	143.5	O 154
Mar 10	vsMCN	L 80-84	+8.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BAY

L 81-96

+9.5

SUU

W 95-72

+21.5

BOIS

L 65-85

−3.5

MOST

L 67-74

−3.5

ILL

L 73-87

+19.5

SFA

L 60-73

−6.5

APSU

W 63-50

+10.5

UTA

L 50-58

−12.5

LAM

W 83-72

+14.5

NOLA

L 69-85

−22.5

NICH

L 69-71

−5.5

AMCC

L 59-63

−6.5

UIW

W 80-67

+11.5

ETAM

L 69-77

−11.5

NWST

L 63-64

−3.5

MCN

W 79-76

+12.5

SELA

W 68-65

−2.5

HCU

W 68-51

+14.5

AMCC

W 64-55

+11.5

UIW

W 106-93

+11.5

HCU

W 74-57

+7.5

NOLA

W 95-76

+17.5

NICH

W 92-72

+16.5

SFA

L 57-66

−7.5

LAM

W 70-65

−1.5

SELA

W 96-75

+16.5

MCN

L 68-75

+4.5

ETAM

W 63-55

−2.5

NWST

W 74-62

+2.5

NICH

W 86-68

+12.5

MCN

L 80-84

+4.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BAY

L 81-96

+22.5

SUU

W 95-72

+6.5

BOIS

L 65-85

−11.5

MOST

L 67-74

−8.5

ILL

L 73-87

−4.5

SFA

L 60-73

−10.5

APSU

W 63-50

−38.5

UTA

L 50-58

−37.5

LAM

W 83-72

+15.5

NOLA

L 69-85

+1.5

NICH

L 69-71

−5.5

AMCC

L 59-63

−15.5

UIW

W 80-67

+0.5

ETAM

L 69-77

+0.5

NWST

L 63-64

−16.5

MCN

W 79-76

+8.5

SELA

W 68-65

−2.5

HCU

W 68-51

−21.5

AMCC

W 64-55

−16.5

UIW

W 106-93

+58.5

HCU

W 74-57

−10.5

NOLA

W 95-76

+19.5

NICH

W 92-72

+16.5

SFA

L 57-66

−21.5

LAM

W 70-65

−6.5

SELA

W 96-75

+32.5

MCN

L 68-75

−3.5

ETAM

W 63-55

−28.5

NWST

W 74-62

−3.5

NICH

W 86-68

+10.5

MCN

L 80-84

+23.5

over 13under 18avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

UT Arlington

30 games played

Straight up

16-14

53% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-23

23% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1453%

L W W L W W L W L W L W W W W L W W L L L L L W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

L W W L W W L W L W L W W W W L W W L L L L L W L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-2323%

U U O U U U U U U U U U O O U O U U O O U U O U U U U U U U

7 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@UNM	L 56-74	+13.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsMOST	W 67-49	-3.5	W +14.5	143.5	U 116
Nov 18	@EVAN	W 84-76	+2.5	W +10.5	138.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsCAM	L 67-71	+1.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 22	@WEB	W 74-73	+2.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 147
Nov 29	vsSFA	W 66-61	-1.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 127
Dec 2	@ARST	L 63-83	+5.5	L −14.5	151.5	U 146
Dec 11	@RGV	W 58-50	+4.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 108
Dec 17	@STAN	L 60-76	+10.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 136
Dec 22	@ORU	W 69-57	-3.5	W +8.5	136.5	U 126
Dec 29	vsTAR	L 63-69	-2.5	L −8.5	136.5	U 132
Jan 1	vsCBU	W 63-51	+2.5	W +14.5	134.5	U 114
Jan 3	@SUU	W 86-77	-5.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 163
Jan 10	vsACU	W 82-72	-3.5	W +6.5	134.5	O 154
Jan 15	@UTU	W 56-52	+1.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 108
Jan 17	@UVU	L 74-86	+11.5	L −0.5	143.5	O 160
Jan 21	vsTAR	W 71-64	-3.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 29	vsSUU	W 80-61	-9.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 141
Jan 31	vsCBU	L 77-87	+1.5	L −8.5	134.5	O 164
Feb 5	@UTU	L 84-87	+1.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 171
Feb 7	@UVU	L 60-81	+12.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 12	@ACU	L 63-67	+1.5	L −2.5	134.5	U 130
Feb 14	vsSUU	L 73-78	-8.5	L −13.5	143.5	O 151
Feb 19	vsUTU	W 63-50	-4.5	W +8.5	140.5	U 113
Feb 21	vsUVU	L 54-66	+6.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 26	@CBU	L 56-68	+6.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 124
Mar 5	@TAR	W 65-60	+1.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 125
Mar 7	@ACU	W 64-57	+1.5	W +8.5	131.5	U 121
Mar 12	vsSUU	W 69-63	-4.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 132
Mar 13	vsUVU	L 65-67	+8.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNM

L 56-74

−4.5

MOST

W 67-49

+14.5

EVAN

W 84-76

+10.5

CAM

L 67-71

−2.5

WEB

W 74-73

+3.5

SFA

W 66-61

+3.5

ARST

L 63-83

−14.5

RGV

W 58-50

+12.5

STAN

L 60-76

−5.5

ORU

W 69-57

+8.5

TAR

L 63-69

−8.5

CBU

W 63-51

+14.5

SUU

W 86-77

+3.5

ACU

W 82-72

+6.5

UTU

W 56-52

+5.5

UVU

L 74-86

−0.5

TAR

W 71-64

+3.5

SUU

W 80-61

+9.5

CBU

L 77-87

−8.5

UTU

L 84-87

−1.5

UVU

L 60-81

−8.5

ACU

L 63-67

−2.5

SUU

L 73-78

−13.5

UTU

W 63-50

+8.5

UVU

L 54-66

−5.5

CBU

L 56-68

−5.5

TAR

W 65-60

+6.5

ACU

W 64-57

+8.5

SUU

W 69-63

+1.5

UVU

L 65-67

+6.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNM

L 56-74

−15.5

MOST

W 67-49

−27.5

EVAN

W 84-76

+21.5

CAM

L 67-71

−13.5

WEB

W 74-73

−2.5

SFA

W 66-61

−11.5

ARST

L 63-83

−5.5

RGV

W 58-50

−37.5

STAN

L 60-76

−3.5

ORU

W 69-57

−10.5

TAR

L 63-69

−4.5

CBU

W 63-51

−20.5

SUU

W 86-77

+24.5

ACU

W 82-72

+19.5

UTU

W 56-52

−33.5

UVU

L 74-86

+16.5

TAR

W 71-64

−7.5

SUU

W 80-61

−3.5

CBU

L 77-87

+29.5

UTU

L 84-87

+31.5

UVU

L 60-81

−0.5

ACU

L 63-67

−4.5

SUU

L 73-78

+7.5

UTU

W 63-50

−27.5

UVU

L 54-66

−17.5

CBU

L 56-68

−10.5

TAR

W 65-60

−11.5

ACU

W 64-57

−10.5

SUU

W 69-63

−9.5

UVU

L 65-67

−4.5

over 7under 23avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: UT Rio Grande 1, UT Arlington 1, even 3

UT Rio GrandeBetterUT Arlington

G D. Pryor TR2.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 41

No call

G M. Panoam TR0.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked

G A. Wright2.8 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 2

UTABig

F T. McDaniels TR12 pts · 6.1 reb · 1 ast Score 68

G J. Posey TR4.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 75

RGVBig

F M. Goodman3.2 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.1 ast Score 11

G B. Knight TR2.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F B. McGlothin TR0 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

G L. Ramirez0 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F N. Bundalo TR0.5 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

UT Rio GrandeBetterUT Arlington

RGV offense297th of 366 · -9.2

UTASmall

UTA defense211th of 366 · -5.4

RGV defense265th of 366 · -6.8

Even

UTA offense289th of 366 · -8.9

Backcourt-4.0 · 5 players

UTABig

Backcourt-0.3 · 1 player

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-0.8 · 4 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+0.0 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestRGV betterUTA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UT Rio Grande

Guards

D. Pryor18 min · TRA. Wright15 minJ. Posey12 min · TRB. Knight8 min · TRL. Ramirez2 minJ. BlairNew

Forwards

T. WrightNewJ. HillNewB. CrawfordNewK. CorbittNew

UT Arlington

Guards

M. Panoam6 min · TRN. Shelby3 min · TRJ. SmithNewT. HankinsNewK. MikalauskasNewJ. ParkerNew

Forwards

T. McDaniels27 min · TRM. Goodman13 minB. McGlothin5 min · TRN. Bundalo3 min · TRT. SimicNewS. HadnotNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RGV73.7 #210

UTA67.7 #320

Points per possession

RGV1.10 #137

UTA1.01 #319

Pace (possessions)

RGV67.3 #268

UTA67.3 #265

Shooting

Effective FG%

RGV54.8 #44

UTA47.2 #332

3-point %

RGV36.8 #35

UTA29.1 #352

3-point attempt rate

RGV43.7 #95

UTA30.7 #345

Free throw rate

RGV28.9 #332

UTA42.5 #24

Possessions

Turnover rate

RGV18.5 #296

UTA20.7 #354

Offensive rebound rate

RGV28.2 #257

UTA34.9 #50

Assists per game

RGV15.7 #58

UTA10.7 #345

Defense

Points allowed

RGV70.6 #67

UTA67.8 #29

Points allowed per possession

RGV1.05 #86

UTA1.01 #30

Opponent effective FG%

RGV47.8 #38

UTA47.5 #29

Opponent 3-point %

RGV30.4 #16

UTA26.9 #1

Turnovers forced

RGV16.2 #210

UTA18.0 #93

Defensive rebound rate

RGV67.9 #266

UTA69.9 #166

Steals per game

RGV5.9 #243

UTA7.3 #97

Blocks per game

RGV2.8 #266

UTA3.5 #148

RGV		UTA
Scoring
73.7 #210	Points per game	67.7 #320
1.10 #137	Points per possession	1.01 #319
67.3 #268	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #265
Shooting
54.8 #44	Effective FG%	47.2 #332
36.8 #35	3-point %	29.1 #352
43.7 #95	3-point attempt rate	30.7 #345
28.9 #332	Free throw rate	42.5 #24
Possessions
18.5 #296	Turnover rate	20.7 #354
28.2 #257	Offensive rebound rate	34.9 #50
15.7 #58	Assists per game	10.7 #345
Defense
70.6 #67	Points allowed	67.8 #29
1.05 #86	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #30
47.8 #38	Opponent effective FG%	47.5 #29
30.4 #16	Opponent 3-point %	26.9 #1
16.2 #210	Turnovers forced	18.0 #93
67.9 #266	Defensive rebound rate	69.9 #166
5.9 #243	Steals per game	7.3 #97
2.8 #266	Blocks per game	3.5 #148

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UT Rio Grande

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 15-9 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs McNeese80–84
Wvs Nicholls86–68
Wvs N'Western St74–62
Wvs East Texas A&M63–55
L@ McNeese68–75

A week or more of rest.

UT Arlington

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Utah Valley65–67
Wvs Southern Utah69–63
W@ Abilene Chrstn64–57
W@ Tarleton St65–60
L@ CA Baptist56–68

A week or more of rest.

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at UT Arlington Mavericks

What could decide it: UTA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UT Rio Grande

UT Arlington

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UT Rio Grande

UT Arlington