UT Arlington Mavericks at Northwestern State Demons: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 7:30 PM ETPrather Coliseum · at N'Western St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UT Arlington and N'Western St
UTA	This season	NWST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UTA 69–69 · win probability UTA 51%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 138.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UTA has more of the edges

UTA 4, NWST 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UTABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTA 34.9%, NWST 26.1%. Defensive: UTA 69.9%, NWST 67.4%

UTABig

NWST offense vs UTA defense

Offense 340th of 366 against a defense 211th, on the model’s ratings

UTASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTA 47.2 and allows 47.5; NWST 48.6 and allows 53.0

UTASmall

Three-pointers

UTA hits 29.1% and allows 26.9%; NWST hits 33.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 30.7% and 33.9% of their shots

NWSTSmall

UTA offense vs NWST defense

Offense 289th of 366 against a defense 236th, on the model’s ratings

NWSTSmall

Home court

NWST at home. This season: NWST 0-0 at home, UTA 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTA 7%, NWST 28%. Transfers in: UTA 5, NWST 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: UTA plays 67.3 a game (265th fastest), NWST 65.4 (334th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTA 42.5, NWST 40.1. Allowed: UTA 40.9, NWST 36.3

Context

Schedule so far

UTA has played the 268th-hardest schedule, NWST the 292nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTA 20.7%, NWST 18.3%. Forced: UTA 18.0%, NWST 16.9%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UTA -0.3	—
Total	—	138.5	—
Projected score	—	UTA 69.4 · NWST 69.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UTA -0.3	—
1H total	64.8	—
1H projected score	UTA 32.6 · NWST 32.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTA LWWWW	17-13	57%	8-8	—
NWST WWLLL	17-13	57%	8-4	—

Venue/role: UTA away; NWST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTA UUUUU	7-23	23%	16-14
NWST UUUUU	15-15	50%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTA	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%
NWST	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UT Arlington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs ORU	W69–57WU
Dec 1	@ CSU	No recent meeting
Dec 9	@ SFA	W66–61WU

N'Western St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs UWF	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ LAM	W70–68WO
Dec 8	@ GCU	L72–85WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UT Arlington

30 games played

Straight up

16-14

53% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-23

23% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1453%

L W W L W W L W L W L W W W W L W W L L L L L W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

L W W L W W L W L W L W W W W L W W L L L L L W L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-2323%

U U O U U U U U U U U U O O U O U U O O U U O U U U U U U U

7 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@UNM	L 56-74	+13.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsMOST	W 67-49	-3.5	W +14.5	143.5	U 116
Nov 18	@EVAN	W 84-76	+2.5	W +10.5	138.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsCAM	L 67-71	+1.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 22	@WEB	W 74-73	+2.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 147
Nov 29	vsSFA	W 66-61	-1.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 127
Dec 2	@ARST	L 63-83	+5.5	L −14.5	151.5	U 146
Dec 11	@RGV	W 58-50	+4.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 108
Dec 17	@STAN	L 60-76	+10.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 136
Dec 22	@ORU	W 69-57	-3.5	W +8.5	136.5	U 126
Dec 29	vsTAR	L 63-69	-2.5	L −8.5	136.5	U 132
Jan 1	vsCBU	W 63-51	+2.5	W +14.5	134.5	U 114
Jan 3	@SUU	W 86-77	-5.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 163
Jan 10	vsACU	W 82-72	-3.5	W +6.5	134.5	O 154
Jan 15	@UTU	W 56-52	+1.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 108
Jan 17	@UVU	L 74-86	+11.5	L −0.5	143.5	O 160
Jan 21	vsTAR	W 71-64	-3.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 29	vsSUU	W 80-61	-9.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 141
Jan 31	vsCBU	L 77-87	+1.5	L −8.5	134.5	O 164
Feb 5	@UTU	L 84-87	+1.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 171
Feb 7	@UVU	L 60-81	+12.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 12	@ACU	L 63-67	+1.5	L −2.5	134.5	U 130
Feb 14	vsSUU	L 73-78	-8.5	L −13.5	143.5	O 151
Feb 19	vsUTU	W 63-50	-4.5	W +8.5	140.5	U 113
Feb 21	vsUVU	L 54-66	+6.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 26	@CBU	L 56-68	+6.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 124
Mar 5	@TAR	W 65-60	+1.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 125
Mar 7	@ACU	W 64-57	+1.5	W +8.5	131.5	U 121
Mar 12	vsSUU	W 69-63	-4.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 132
Mar 13	vsUVU	L 65-67	+8.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNM

L 56-74

−4.5

MOST

W 67-49

+14.5

EVAN

W 84-76

+10.5

CAM

L 67-71

−2.5

WEB

W 74-73

+3.5

SFA

W 66-61

+3.5

ARST

L 63-83

−14.5

RGV

W 58-50

+12.5

STAN

L 60-76

−5.5

ORU

W 69-57

+8.5

TAR

L 63-69

−8.5

CBU

W 63-51

+14.5

SUU

W 86-77

+3.5

ACU

W 82-72

+6.5

UTU

W 56-52

+5.5

UVU

L 74-86

−0.5

TAR

W 71-64

+3.5

SUU

W 80-61

+9.5

CBU

L 77-87

−8.5

UTU

L 84-87

−1.5

UVU

L 60-81

−8.5

ACU

L 63-67

−2.5

SUU

L 73-78

−13.5

UTU

W 63-50

+8.5

UVU

L 54-66

−5.5

CBU

L 56-68

−5.5

TAR

W 65-60

+6.5

ACU

W 64-57

+8.5

SUU

W 69-63

+1.5

UVU

L 65-67

+6.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNM

L 56-74

−15.5

MOST

W 67-49

−27.5

EVAN

W 84-76

+21.5

CAM

L 67-71

−13.5

WEB

W 74-73

−2.5

SFA

W 66-61

−11.5

ARST

L 63-83

−5.5

RGV

W 58-50

−37.5

STAN

L 60-76

−3.5

ORU

W 69-57

−10.5

TAR

L 63-69

−4.5

CBU

W 63-51

−20.5

SUU

W 86-77

+24.5

ACU

W 82-72

+19.5

UTU

W 56-52

−33.5

UVU

L 74-86

+16.5

TAR

W 71-64

−7.5

SUU

W 80-61

−3.5

CBU

L 77-87

+29.5

UTU

L 84-87

+31.5

UVU

L 60-81

−0.5

ACU

L 63-67

−4.5

SUU

L 73-78

+7.5

UTU

W 63-50

−27.5

UVU

L 54-66

−17.5

CBU

L 56-68

−10.5

TAR

W 65-60

−11.5

ACU

W 64-57

−10.5

SUU

W 69-63

−9.5

UVU

L 65-67

−4.5

over 7under 23avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

N'Western St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L W L L L W L W W L L L L L L L W W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1357%

L L W L W W L W W L L W W W W W W W L L L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U O O O O O O O U U U O O U O O U U U U U O O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TA&M	L 68-98	+21.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 166
Nov 6	@UNT	L 53-80	+11.5	L −15.5	137.5	U 133
Nov 11	@UNA	L 83-87	+6.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 170
Nov 18	@SF	L 64-84	+16.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 148
Nov 21	@GCU	L 72-85	+18.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 157
Nov 29	vsSOU	L 73-75	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 5	@MCN	L 54-92	+19.5	L −18.5	139.5	O 146
Dec 7	@SELA	W 76-68	+7.5	W +15.5	133.5	O 144
Dec 13	@CAL	L 70-79	+19.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 149
Dec 29	vsLAM	L 61-76	+3.5	L −11.5	138.5	U 137
Dec 31	vsSFA	L 64-74	+8.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 138
Jan 3	vsNOLA	W 74-68	+1.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 5	@NICH	L 72-74	+8.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 146
Jan 10	vsAMCC	W 79-78	+5.5	W +6.5	138.5	O 157
Jan 12	vsRGV	W 64-63	+2.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 127
Jan 17	@UIW	L 74-76	+8.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 19	@HCU	L 80-82	+2.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 162
Jan 27	@SFA	L 67-69	+14.5	W +12.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 31	@NOLA	L 64-75	+4.5	L −6.5	153.5	U 139
Feb 2	vsNICH	L 58-61	+1.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 119
Feb 4	vsETAM	L 68-74	-3.5	L −9.5	143.5	U 142
Feb 7	@ETAM	L 48-52	+1.5	L −2.5	140.5	U 100
Feb 9	@LAM	W 70-68	+6.5	W +8.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 14	vsSELA	W 69-66	-1.5	W +1.5	131.5	O 135
Feb 16	vsMCN	L 64-75	+14.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 139
Feb 21	vsHCU	W 71-53	-2.5	W +15.5	134.5	U 124
Feb 23	vsUIW	W 54-49	-1.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 103
Feb 28	@AMCC	L 59-71	+5.5	L −6.5	134.5	U 130
Mar 2	@RGV	L 62-74	+9.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 136
Mar 8	vsNICH	L 47-61	+1.5	L −12.5	138.5	U 108

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TA&M

L 68-98

−8.5

UNT

L 53-80

−15.5

UNA

L 83-87

+2.5

L 64-84

−3.5

GCU

L 72-85

+5.5

SOU

L 73-75

+1.5

MCN

L 54-92

−18.5

SELA

W 76-68

+15.5

CAL

L 70-79

+10.5

LAM

L 61-76

−11.5

SFA

L 64-74

−1.5

NOLA

W 74-68

+7.5

NICH

L 72-74

+6.5

AMCC

W 79-78

+6.5

RGV

W 64-63

+3.5

UIW

L 74-76

+6.5

HCU

L 80-82

+0.5

SFA

L 67-69

+12.5

NOLA

L 64-75

−6.5

NICH

L 58-61

−1.5

ETAM

L 68-74

−9.5

ETAM

L 48-52

−2.5

LAM

W 70-68

+8.5

SELA

W 69-66

+1.5

MCN

L 64-75

+3.5

HCU

W 71-53

+15.5

UIW

W 54-49

+3.5

AMCC

L 59-71

−6.5

RGV

L 62-74

−2.5

NICH

L 47-61

−12.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TA&M

L 68-98

+12.5

UNT

L 53-80

−4.5

UNA

L 83-87

+27.5

L 64-84

+4.5

GCU

L 72-85

+9.5

SOU

L 73-75

+3.5

MCN

L 54-92

+6.5

SELA

W 76-68

+10.5

CAL

L 70-79

+3.5

LAM

L 61-76

−1.5

SFA

L 64-74

−0.5

NOLA

W 74-68

−7.5

NICH

L 72-74

+1.5

AMCC

W 79-78

+18.5

RGV

W 64-63

−16.5

UIW

L 74-76

+8.5

HCU

L 80-82

+22.5

SFA

L 67-69

−5.5

NOLA

L 64-75

−14.5

NICH

L 58-61

−28.5

ETAM

L 68-74

−1.5

ETAM

L 48-52

−40.5

LAM

W 70-68

+2.5

SELA

W 69-66

+3.5

MCN

L 64-75

+0.5

HCU

W 71-53

−10.5

UIW

W 54-49

−35.5

AMCC

L 59-71

−4.5

RGV

L 62-74

−3.5

NICH

L 47-61

−30.5

over 15under 15avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UT Arlington has the better starters

Position by position: UT Arlington 1, N'Western St 0, even 4

UT ArlingtonBetterN'Western St

G M. Panoam TR0.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked

No call

G I. Miles10.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 57

F T. McDaniels TR12 pts · 6.1 reb · 1 ast Score 68

UTABig

G C. Larry2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 1

F M. Goodman3.2 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.1 ast Score 11

Even

F D. Thomas TR5.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

F B. McGlothin TR0 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F A. Osojnik TR5.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22

F N. Bundalo TR0.5 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F K. Turner3.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 34

UT ArlingtonBetterN'Western St

UTA offense289th of 366 · -8.9

Even

NWST defense236th of 366 · -6.2

UTA defense211th of 366 · -5.4

UTABig

NWST offense340th of 366 · -11.5

Backcourt-0.3 · 1 player

UTABig

Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.8 · 4 players

UTASmall

Frontcourt-3.2 · 3 players

Bench+0.0 · 1 player

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestUTA betterNWST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UT Arlington

Guards

M. Panoam6 min · TRN. Shelby3 min · TRJ. SmithNewT. HankinsNewK. MikalauskasNewJ. ParkerNew

Forwards

T. McDaniels27 min · TRM. Goodman13 minB. McGlothin5 min · TRN. Bundalo3 min · TRT. SimicNewS. HadnotNew

N'Western St

Guards

I. Miles25 minC. Larry18 minK. SimpsonNewD. BrownNewA. AlmuttarNewB. RemoNew

Forwards

D. Thomas18 min · TRA. Osojnik16 min · TRK. Turner13 minN. OjukwuNewC. KellyNewJ. NesbittNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UTA67.7 #320

NWST66.1 #346

Points per possession

UTA1.01 #319

NWST1.01 #315

Pace (possessions)

UTA67.3 #265

NWST65.4 #334

Shooting

Effective FG%

UTA47.2 #332

NWST48.6 #301

3-point %

UTA29.1 #352

NWST33.2 #218

3-point attempt rate

UTA30.7 #345

NWST33.9 #298

Free throw rate

UTA42.5 #24

NWST40.1 #58

Possessions

Turnover rate

UTA20.7 #354

NWST18.3 #286

Offensive rebound rate

UTA34.9 #50

NWST26.1 #321

Assists per game

UTA10.7 #345

NWST11.3 #322

Defense

Points allowed

UTA67.8 #29

NWST72.9 #129

Points allowed per possession

UTA1.01 #30

NWST1.12 #262

Opponent effective FG%

UTA47.5 #29

NWST53.0 #270

Opponent 3-point %

UTA26.9 #1

NWST35.5 #278

Turnovers forced

UTA18.0 #93

NWST16.9 #160

Defensive rebound rate

UTA69.9 #166

NWST67.4 #286

Steals per game

UTA7.3 #97

NWST6.2 #215

Blocks per game

UTA3.5 #148

NWST2.3 #321

UTA		NWST
Scoring
67.7 #320	Points per game	66.1 #346
1.01 #319	Points per possession	1.01 #315
67.3 #265	Pace (possessions)	65.4 #334
Shooting
47.2 #332	Effective FG%	48.6 #301
29.1 #352	3-point %	33.2 #218
30.7 #345	3-point attempt rate	33.9 #298
42.5 #24	Free throw rate	40.1 #58
Possessions
20.7 #354	Turnover rate	18.3 #286
34.9 #50	Offensive rebound rate	26.1 #321
10.7 #345	Assists per game	11.3 #322
Defense
67.8 #29	Points allowed	72.9 #129
1.01 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #262
47.5 #29	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #270
26.9 #1	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #278
18.0 #93	Turnovers forced	16.9 #160
69.9 #166	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #286
7.3 #97	Steals per game	6.2 #215
3.5 #148	Blocks per game	2.3 #321

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UT Arlington

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Utah Valley65–67
Wvs Southern Utah69–63
W@ Abilene Chrstn64–57
W@ Tarleton St65–60
L@ CA Baptist56–68

A week or more of rest.

N'Western St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Nicholls47–61
L@ UT Rio Grande62–74
L@ Texas A&M-CC59–71
Wvs Incarnate Word54–49
Wvs Hou Christian71–53

A week or more of rest.

UT Arlington Mavericks at Northwestern State Demons

What could decide it: UTA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UT Arlington

N'Western St

UT Arlington has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UT Arlington

N'Western St