1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 20
  3. MSST @ TLSA
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 20

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Reynolds Center · at Tulsa
#53MSSTMississippi St
@
#108TLSATulsa
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MSSTThis seasonTLSA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSST 81–78 · win probability MSST 62%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 158.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TLSA has more of the edges

MSST 1, TLSA 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TLSABig
Three-pointers
MSST hits 32.4% and allows 33.9%; TLSA hits 38.5% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 40.1% and 46.7% of their shots
TLSABig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MSST 30.6, TLSA 41.4. Allowed: MSST 32.3, TLSA 32.0
TLSASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MSST 51.5 and allows 50.9; TLSA 55.4 and allows 49.5
MSSTSmall
MSST offense vs TLSA defense
Offense 34th of 366 against a defense 133rd, on the model’s ratings
TLSASmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MSST 29.8%, TLSA 32.8%. Defensive: MSST 69.3%, TLSA 71.0%
Context
Schedule so far
MSST has played the 26th-hardest schedule, TLSA the 111th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TLSASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MSST 16.0%, TLSA 15.6%. Forced: MSST 12.8%, TLSA 15.4%
TLSASmall
Home court
TLSA at home. This season: TLSA 0-0 at home, MSST 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: MSST plays 72.3 a game (29th fastest), TLSA 70.1 (115th). Faster games mean more points
Even
TLSA offense vs MSST defense
Offense 99th of 366 against a defense 88th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MSST 23%, TLSA 18%. Transfers in: MSST 6, TLSA 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MSST -3.4—
Total—158.3—
Projected score—MSST 80.9 · TLSA 77.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMSST -2.2—
1H total74.0—
1H projected scoreMSST 38.1 · TLSA 35.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Mississippi St has the better starters

Position by position: Mississippi St 4, Tulsa 0, even 1
Mississippi StBetterTulsa
G J. Hubbard22.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 99
MSSTBig
G K. Williams TR14.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 46
G R. Johnson TR14.8 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 86
MSSTSmall
G J. Johnson TR15 pts · 3.5 reb · 2 ast Score 69
G T. Simpkins TR9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 83
MSSTSmall
G B. Moss TR9.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 54
F K. Sanders TR5.2 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31
Even
F M. Emory TR11.3 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 27
C N. Okafor TR11.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 71
MSSTBig
F C. Loofe TR7.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 26
Mississippi StBetterTulsa
MSST offense34th of 366 · +5.5
MSSTSmall
TLSA defense133rd of 366 · -2.5
MSST defense88th of 366 · -0.1
Even
TLSA offense99th of 366 · -0.8
Backcourt+9.6 · 3 players
MSSTBig
Backcourt-0.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.6 · 2 players
MSSTBig
Frontcourt-3.8 · 2 players
Bench-2.0 · 3 players
TLSABig
Bench+1.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMSST betterTLSA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mississippi St
Guards
J. Hubbard33 minR. Johnson29 min · TRT. Simpkins25 min · TRK. Grace12 minA. Magee11 min · TRC. PaulNew
Forwards
K. Sanders20 min · TRT. Bassong19 min · TRT. ReedNew
Centers
N. Okafor23 min · TRG. CholNewT. BartlettNewT. ReedNew
Tulsa
Guards
K. Williams36 min · TRJ. Johnson33 min · TRB. Moss27 min · TRM. Williams21 min · TRM. Rigsby19 minJ. Lawal13 min
Forwards
M. Emory37 min · TRC. Loofe26 min · TRK. Banks16 min · TRD. DesireNewA. DimitrijevicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MSSTTLSA
Scoring
77.6 #103Points per game83.9 #20
1.07 #205Points per possession1.20 #16
72.3 #29Pace (possessions)70.1 #115
Shooting
51.5 #172Effective FG%55.4 #29
32.4 #2623-point %38.5 #10
40.1 #1693-point attempt rate46.7 #37
30.6 #288Free throw rate41.4 #39
Possessions
16.0 #143Turnover rate15.6 #109
29.8 #210Offensive rebound rate32.8 #95
12.8 #231Assists per game15.1 #79
Defense
81.8 #338Points allowed74.4 #172
1.13 #299Points allowed per possession1.06 #111
50.9 #154Opponent effective FG%49.5 #82
33.9 #179Opponent 3-point %32.4 #85
12.8 #358Turnovers forced15.4 #260
69.3 #190Defensive rebound rate71.0 #108
5.8 #260Steals per game6.6 #170
4.4 #44Blocks per game2.5 #306
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mississippi St

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Auburn61–79
  • Lvs Georgia96–102
  • L@ Florida74–108
  • Lvs Missouri64–88
  • L@ Alabama75–100

A week or more of rest.

Tulsa

28-8 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Auburn86–92
  • Wvs New Mexico74–69
  • Wvs Wichita St83–79
  • Wvs UNLV77–66
  • Wvs SF Austin89–84

A week or more of rest.