1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 23
  3. TLSA vs ORST
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 23

Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Oregon State Beavers

Acrisure Arena · Neutral site
#108TLSATulsa
vs
#99ORSTOregon St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TLSAThis seasonORST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORST 77–76 · win probability ORST 53%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TLSA has more of the edges

TLSA 4, ORST 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TLSABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TLSA 32.8%, ORST 26.8%. Defensive: TLSA 71.0%, ORST 67.9%
TLSABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: TLSA 55.4 and allows 49.5; ORST 50.5 and allows 50.3
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: TLSA plays 70.1 a game (115th fastest), ORST 67.2 (272nd). Faster games mean more points
TLSASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TLSA 15.6%, ORST 17.7%. Forced: TLSA 15.4%, ORST 15.3%
TLSASmall
Three-pointers
TLSA hits 38.5% and allows 32.4%; ORST hits 35.0% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 46.7% and 44.3% of their shots
Even
ORST offense vs TLSA defense
Offense 95th of 366 against a defense 133rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: TLSA 41.4, ORST 43.1. Allowed: TLSA 32.0, ORST 35.1
Even
TLSA offense vs ORST defense
Offense 99th of 366 against a defense 109th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
TLSA has played the 111th-hardest schedule, ORST the 120th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TLSA 18%, ORST 17%. Transfers in: TLSA 7, ORST 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ORST -0.8—
Total—152.6—
Projected score—TLSA 75.9 · ORST 76.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadORST -0.3—
1H total71.3—
1H projected scoreTLSA 35.5 · ORST 35.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Oregon St has the better starters

Position by position: Tulsa 0, Oregon St 4, even 1
TulsaBetterOregon St
G K. Williams TR14.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 46
ORSTBig
G J. Lake13.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.2 ast Score 87
G J. Johnson TR15 pts · 3.5 reb · 2 ast Score 69
ORSTSmall
G D. Freitag TR20 pts · 4.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 93
G B. Moss TR9.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 54
Even
G L. Smiley TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 52
F M. Emory TR11.3 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 27
ORSTSmall
F J. Rasmussen TR13 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 43
F C. Loofe TR7.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 26
ORSTBig
F D. Gory TR13.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 2 ast Score 80
TulsaBetterOregon St
TLSA offense99th of 366 · -0.8
Even
ORST defense109th of 366 · -1.1
TLSA defense133rd of 366 · -2.5
Even
ORST offense95th of 366 · -0.7
Backcourt-0.9 · 3 players
ORSTBig
Backcourt+5.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.8 · 2 players
ORSTBig
Frontcourt+1.1 · 2 players
Bench+1.3 · 5 players
Even
Bench+1.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestTLSA betterORST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Tulsa
Guards
K. Williams36 min · TRJ. Johnson33 min · TRB. Moss27 min · TRM. Williams21 min · TRM. Rigsby19 minJ. Lawal13 min
Forwards
M. Emory37 min · TRC. Loofe26 min · TRK. Banks16 min · TRD. DesireNewA. DimitrijevicNew
Oregon St
Guards
J. Lake34 minD. Freitag34 min · TRL. Smiley21 min · TRC. Johnson16 min · TRS. Blakely Drummond1 min · TRJ. LakeNew
Forwards
J. Rasmussen32 min · TRD. Gory30 min · TRP. Pinnis4 min · TRK. TreacherNew
Centers
D. Evans9 min · TRX. Staton5 min · TRY. AklogNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TLSAORST
Scoring
83.9 #20Points per game71.1 #264
1.20 #16Points per possession1.06 #232
70.1 #115Pace (possessions)67.2 #272
Shooting
55.4 #29Effective FG%50.5 #216
38.5 #103-point %35.0 #115
46.7 #373-point attempt rate44.3 #84
41.4 #39Free throw rate43.1 #20
Possessions
15.6 #109Turnover rate17.7 #254
32.8 #95Offensive rebound rate26.8 #303
15.1 #79Assists per game13.8 #159
Defense
74.4 #172Points allowed74.2 #159
1.06 #111Points allowed per possession1.10 #223
49.5 #82Opponent effective FG%50.3 #119
32.4 #85Opponent 3-point %32.9 #116
15.4 #260Turnovers forced15.3 #264
71.0 #108Defensive rebound rate67.9 #265
6.6 #170Steals per game5.5 #293
2.5 #306Blocks per game3.7 #115
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tulsa

28-8 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Auburn86–92
  • Wvs New Mexico74–69
  • Wvs Wichita St83–79
  • Wvs UNLV77–66
  • Wvs SF Austin89–84

A week or more of rest.

Oregon St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Gonzaga56–65
  • Wvs San Francisco78–77
  • L@ Santa Clara72–93
  • Wvs San Diego92–82
  • Wvs Pepperdine83–73

A week or more of rest.