Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Mississippi State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 25, 7:30 PM ETImperial Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wake Forest and Mississippi St
WAKE	This season	MSST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSST 81–77 · win probability MSST 63%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 157.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

WAKE 2, MSST 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WAKEBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WAKE 15.5%, MSST 16.0%. Forced: WAKE 17.7%, MSST 12.8%

WAKESmall

Three-pointers

WAKE hits 34.1% and allows 32.9%; MSST hits 32.4% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 43.6% and 40.1% of their shots

MSSTSmall

MSST offense vs WAKE defense

Offense 34th of 366 against a defense 96th, on the model’s ratings

MSSTSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WAKE 30.1%, MSST 29.8%. Defensive: WAKE 67.0%, MSST 69.3%

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: WAKE plays 70.2 a game (112th fastest), MSST 72.3 (29th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

WAKE has played the 64th-hardest schedule, MSST the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WAKE 9%, MSST 23%. Transfers in: WAKE 6, MSST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: WAKE 35.2, MSST 30.6. Allowed: WAKE 35.7, MSST 32.3

Even

WAKE offense vs MSST defense

Offense 80th of 366 against a defense 88th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: WAKE 52.7 and allows 51.8; MSST 51.5 and allows 50.9

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MSST -3.7	—
Total	—	157.5	—
Projected score	—	WAKE 76.9 · MSST 80.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSST -2.1	—
1H total	73.6	—
1H projected score	WAKE 35.8 · MSST 37.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WAKE WWLWL	16-19	46%	4-2	—
MSST LLLLL	10-22	31%	1-5	—

Venue/role: WAKE neutral site; MSST neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE UOUOO	20-15	57%	18-17
MSST UUOOU	16-16	50%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
MSST	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wake Forest

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ LSU	L80–86LO
Dec 6	vs MASS	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs HAMP	W97–70WO

Mississippi St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs GT	W85–73WO
Dec 7	vs AAMU	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ MARQ	W58–55LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wake Forest

35 games played

Straight up

18-17

51% wins

Against the spread

16-19

46% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-15

57% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1751%

W W L W L W W W L W W W L L W L L W L L L L L W W W L L W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1946%

L L W W W L W L L W W L L L L L W L L L L L W W W W L L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1557%

O U O O O U U O U U O U O U O O O U O O O O O U U O U U O U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAMER	W 88-74	-19.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 7	vsMORE	W 81-65	-22.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 11	vsMICH	L 84-85	+15.5	W +14.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 16	vsUML	W 109-75	-30.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 184
Nov 20	vsTTU	L 83-84	+9.5	W +8.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 21	vsMEM	W 69-68	-2.5	L −1.5	160.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsCAM	W 99-51	-17.5	W +30.5	159.5	U 150
Nov 28	vsNE	W 86-73	-17.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 2	vsOU	L 68-86	-4.5	L −22.5	159.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsWVU	W 75-66	+2.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 141
Dec 14	vsQUC	W 111-73	-18.5	W +19.5	165.5	O 184
Dec 17	vsLONG	W 71-68	-24.5	L −21.5	163.5	U 139
Dec 21	vsVAN	L 67-98	+5.5	L −25.5	164.5	O 165
Dec 31	@NCSU	L 57-70	+10.5	L −2.5	159.5	U 127
Jan 3	vsVT	W 81-78	-5.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 159
Jan 7	vsMIA	L 77-81	-1.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 158
Jan 10	@UNC	L 84-87	+10.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 171
Jan 17	@FSU	W 69-68	-1.5	L −0.5	168.5	U 137
Jan 20	vsSMU	L 79-91	-1.5	L −13.5	157.5	O 170
Jan 24	@DUKE	L 69-90	+19.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 159
Jan 27	@PITT	L 76-80	+1.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 156
Jan 31	vsNCSU	L 78-96	+5.5	L −12.5	156.5	O 174
Feb 7	vsLOU	L 80-88	+9.5	W +1.5	162.5	O 168
Feb 11	@GT	W 83-67	-3.5	W +12.5	158.5	U 150
Feb 14	vsSTAN	W 68-63	-4.5	W +0.5	150.5	U 131
Feb 18	vsCLEM	W 85-77	+4.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 162
Feb 21	@VT	L 63-82	+3.5	L −15.5	150.5	U 145
Feb 25	@BC	L 67-68	-3.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 135
Feb 28	vsSYR	W 88-83	-3.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 171
Mar 3	@UVA	L 70-75	+14.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 145
Mar 7	vsCAL	W 80-73	-5.5	W +1.5	154.5	U 153
Mar 10	vsVT	W 95-89	-1.5	W +4.5	150.5	O 184
Mar 11	vsCLEM	L 62-71	+5.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 133
Mar 18	vsNAVY	W 82-72	-9.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 154
Mar 22	vsILST	L 75-78	-8.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

−5.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+14.5

UML

W 109-75

+3.5

TTU

L 83-84

+8.5

MEM

W 69-68

−1.5

CAM

W 99-51

+30.5

W 86-73

−4.5

L 68-86

−22.5

WVU

W 75-66

+11.5

QUC

W 111-73

+19.5

LONG

W 71-68

−21.5

VAN

L 67-98

−25.5

NCSU

L 57-70

−2.5

W 81-78

−2.5

MIA

L 77-81

−5.5

UNC

L 84-87

+7.5

FSU

W 69-68

−0.5

SMU

L 79-91

−13.5

DUKE

L 69-90

−1.5

PITT

L 76-80

−2.5

NCSU

L 78-96

−12.5

LOU

L 80-88

+1.5

W 83-67

+12.5

STAN

W 68-63

+0.5

CLEM

W 85-77

+12.5

L 63-82

−15.5

L 67-68

−4.5

SYR

W 88-83

+1.5

UVA

L 70-75

+9.5

CAL

W 80-73

+1.5

W 95-89

+4.5

CLEM

L 62-71

−3.5

NAVY

W 82-72

+0.5

ILST

L 75-78

−11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 19avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

+22.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+0.5

UML

W 109-75

+18.5

TTU

L 83-84

+6.5

MEM

W 69-68

−23.5

CAM

W 99-51

−9.5

W 86-73

+4.5

L 68-86

−5.5

WVU

W 75-66

−2.5

QUC

W 111-73

+18.5

LONG

W 71-68

−24.5

VAN

L 67-98

+0.5

NCSU

L 57-70

−32.5

W 81-78

+5.5

MIA

L 77-81

+0.5

UNC

L 84-87

+16.5

FSU

W 69-68

−31.5

SMU

L 79-91

+12.5

DUKE

L 69-90

+5.5

PITT

L 76-80

+5.5

NCSU

L 78-96

+17.5

LOU

L 80-88

+5.5

W 83-67

−8.5

STAN

W 68-63

−19.5

CLEM

W 85-77

+21.5

L 63-82

−5.5

L 67-68

−10.5

SYR

W 88-83

+18.5

UVA

L 70-75

−5.5

CAL

W 80-73

−1.5

W 95-89

+33.5

CLEM

L 62-71

−10.5

NAVY

W 82-72

+5.5

ILST

L 75-78

+0.5

over 20under 15avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mississippi St

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

10-22

31% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W L W L L W L W L W W W W W W L L L L L W L L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-2231%

L L L L L L L W L W L W W W W L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

U O U O O U O O U O O U U O U O O U U U U O U U O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUNA	W 86-62	-24.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 10	vsISU	L 80-96	+5.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 176
Nov 15	vsSELA	W 75-68	-27.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 20	vsKSU	L 77-98	-2.5	L −23.5	164.5	O 175
Nov 21	vsUNM	L 78-80	-6.5	L −8.5	151.5	O 158
Nov 24	vsNOLA	W 81-78	-23.5	L −20.5	160.5	U 159
Nov 28	vsSMU	L 81-87	-1.5	L −7.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 3	@GT	W 85-73	-1.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 158
Dec 7	vsSF	L 62-65	-4.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 127
Dec 13	vsUTAH	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 16	vsLIU	W 87-83	-16.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsMEM	W 71-66	-3.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 29	vsALST	W 94-56	-17.5	W +20.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 3	@TEX	W 101-98	+9.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 199
Jan 7	vsOU	W 72-53	-1.5	W +17.5	158.5	U 125
Jan 10	@UK	L 68-92	+10.5	L −13.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 13	vsALA	L 82-97	+4.5	L −10.5	171.5	O 179
Jan 17	vsMISS	L 67-68	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 135
Jan 21	@TA&M	L 68-88	+8.5	L −11.5	163.5	U 156
Jan 24	vsVAN	L 56-88	+7.5	L −24.5	159.5	U 144
Jan 28	@LSU	W 80-66	+7.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 31	@MIZ	L 79-84	+6.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 163
Feb 7	vsARK	L 68-88	+5.5	L −14.5	163.5	U 156
Feb 11	vsTENN	L 64-73	+8.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 14	@MISS	W 90-78	+3.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 168
Feb 18	vsAUB	W 91-85	+5.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 176
Feb 21	@SC	L 89-97	-1.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 186
Feb 25	@ALA	L 75-100	+12.5	L −12.5	176.5	U 175
Feb 28	vsMIZ	L 64-88	+1.5	L −22.5	154.5	U 152
Mar 3	@FLA	L 74-108	+20.5	L −13.5	161.5	O 182
Mar 7	vsUGA	L 96-102	+5.5	L −0.5	167.5	O 198
Mar 11	vsAUB	L 61-79	+8.5	L −9.5	160.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−0.5

ISU

L 80-96

−10.5

SELA

W 75-68

−20.5

KSU

L 77-98

−23.5

UNM

L 78-80

−8.5

NOLA

W 81-78

−20.5

SMU

L 81-87

−7.5

W 85-73

+10.5

L 62-65

−7.5

UTAH

W 82-74

+6.5

LIU

W 87-83

−12.5

MEM

W 71-66

+1.5

ALST

W 94-56

+20.5

TEX

W 101-98

+12.5

W 72-53

+17.5

L 68-92

−13.5

ALA

L 82-97

−10.5

MISS

L 67-68

−4.5

TA&M

L 68-88

−11.5

VAN

L 56-88

−24.5

LSU

W 80-66

+21.5

MIZ

L 79-84

+1.5

ARK

L 68-88

−14.5

TENN

L 64-73

−0.5

MISS

W 90-78

+15.5

AUB

W 91-85

+11.5

L 89-97

−9.5

ALA

L 75-100

−12.5

MIZ

L 64-88

−22.5

FLA

L 74-108

−13.5

UGA

L 96-102

−0.5

AUB

L 61-79

−9.5

covered 10didn’t cover 22avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−3.5

ISU

L 80-96

+25.5

SELA

W 75-68

−7.5

KSU

L 77-98

+10.5

UNM

L 78-80

+6.5

NOLA

W 81-78

−1.5

SMU

L 81-87

+5.5

W 85-73

+7.5

L 62-65

−23.5

UTAH

W 82-74

+2.5

LIU

W 87-83

+17.5

MEM

W 71-66

−16.5

ALST

W 94-56

−4.5

TEX

W 101-98

+41.5

W 72-53

−33.5

L 68-92

+7.5

ALA

L 82-97

+7.5

MISS

L 67-68

−12.5

TA&M

L 68-88

−7.5

VAN

L 56-88

−15.5

LSU

W 80-66

−8.5

MIZ

L 79-84

+16.5

ARK

L 68-88

−7.5

TENN

L 64-73

−10.5

MISS

W 90-78

+21.5

AUB

W 91-85

+20.5

L 89-97

+34.5

ALA

L 75-100

−1.5

MIZ

L 64-88

−2.5

FLA

L 74-108

+20.5

UGA

L 96-102

+30.5

AUB

L 61-79

−20.5

over 16under 16avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mississippi St has the better starters

Position by position: Wake Forest 0, Mississippi St 3, even 2

Wake ForestBetterMississippi St

G K. Kennedy TR18.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 4.2 ast Score 91

Even

G J. Hubbard22.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 99

G J. Ray TR11.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 56

MSSTSmall

G R. Johnson TR14.8 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 86

G J. McDowell TR3.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 40

MSSTBig

G T. Simpkins TR9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 83

F R. Nyeri TR8.4 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 34

Even

F K. Sanders TR5.2 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31

F X. Pintelon TR5.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 47

MSSTSmall

C N. Okafor TR11.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 71

Wake ForestBetterMississippi St

WAKE offense80th of 366 · +0.5

Even

MSST defense88th of 366 · -0.1

WAKE defense96th of 366 · -0.5

MSSTSmall

MSST offense34th of 366 · +5.5

Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players

MSSTBig

Backcourt+9.6 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.6 · 2 players

MSSTSmall

Frontcourt+0.6 · 2 players

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-2.0 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestWAKE betterMSST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wake Forest

Guards

K. Kennedy37 min · TRJ. Ray29 min · TRJ. McDowell17 min · TRI. Carr13 minA. Beard2 minW. Underwood2 min

Forwards

R. Nyeri26 min · TRX. Pintelon18 min · TRV. Ricchiuti2 minJ. AbsonNewV. ChaudhriNewG. PlacideNew

Centers

A. Dorn9 min · TR

Mississippi St

Guards

J. Hubbard33 minR. Johnson29 min · TRT. Simpkins25 min · TRK. Grace12 minA. Magee11 min · TRC. PaulNew

Forwards

K. Sanders20 min · TRT. Bassong19 min · TRT. ReedNew

Centers

N. Okafor23 min · TRG. CholNewT. BartlettNewT. ReedNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WAKE78.8 #83

MSST77.6 #103

Points per possession

WAKE1.12 #94

MSST1.07 #205

Pace (possessions)

WAKE70.2 #112

MSST72.3 #29

Shooting

Effective FG%

WAKE52.7 #117

MSST51.5 #172

3-point %

WAKE34.1 #166

MSST32.4 #262

3-point attempt rate

WAKE43.6 #99

MSST40.1 #169

Free throw rate

WAKE35.2 #170

MSST30.6 #288

Possessions

Turnover rate

WAKE15.5 #107

MSST16.0 #143

Offensive rebound rate

WAKE30.1 #196

MSST29.8 #210

Assists per game

WAKE14.4 #123

MSST12.8 #231

Defense

Points allowed

WAKE76.9 #239

MSST81.8 #338

Points allowed per possession

WAKE1.10 #214

MSST1.13 #299

Opponent effective FG%

WAKE51.8 #202

MSST50.9 #154

Opponent 3-point %

WAKE32.9 #117

MSST33.9 #179

Turnovers forced

WAKE17.7 #114

MSST12.8 #358

Defensive rebound rate

WAKE67.0 #298

MSST69.3 #190

Steals per game

WAKE7.7 #59

MSST5.8 #260

Blocks per game

WAKE3.5 #136

MSST4.4 #44

WAKE		MSST
Scoring
78.8 #83	Points per game	77.6 #103
1.12 #94	Points per possession	1.07 #205
70.2 #112	Pace (possessions)	72.3 #29
Shooting
52.7 #117	Effective FG%	51.5 #172
34.1 #166	3-point %	32.4 #262
43.6 #99	3-point attempt rate	40.1 #169
35.2 #170	Free throw rate	30.6 #288
Possessions
15.5 #107	Turnover rate	16.0 #143
30.1 #196	Offensive rebound rate	29.8 #210
14.4 #123	Assists per game	12.8 #231
Defense
76.9 #239	Points allowed	81.8 #338
1.10 #214	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #299
51.8 #202	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #154
32.9 #117	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #179
17.7 #114	Turnovers forced	12.8 #358
67.0 #298	Defensive rebound rate	69.3 #190
7.7 #59	Steals per game	5.8 #260
3.5 #136	Blocks per game	4.4 #44

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wake Forest

18-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois St75–78
Wvs Navy82–72
Lvs Clemson62–71
Wvs Virginia Tech95–89
Wvs California80–73

A week or more of rest.

Mississippi St

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Auburn61–79
Lvs Georgia96–102
L@ Florida74–108
Lvs Missouri64–88
L@ Alabama75–100

A week or more of rest.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Wake Forest

Mississippi St

Mississippi St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wake Forest

Mississippi St