1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 14
  3. MONT @ UND
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 14

Montana Grizzlies at North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Betty Engelstad Sioux Center · at North Dakota
#273MONTMontana
@
#336UNDNorth Dakota
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MONTThis seasonUND
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MONT 76–74 · win probability MONT 55%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MONT has more of the edges

MONT 4, UND 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNDBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MONT 19.5%, UND 14.1%. Forced: MONT 14.3%, UND 19.3%
MONTBig
Three-pointers
MONT hits 36.6% and allows 32.3%; UND hits 32.7% and allows 37.1%. Threes are 41.8% and 40.6% of their shots
MONTBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MONT 55.8 and allows 50.5; UND 49.5 and allows 56.5
MONTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MONT 36.8, UND 37.9. Allowed: MONT 32.6, UND 43.8
MONTSmall
MONT offense vs UND defense
Offense 256th of 366 against a defense 353rd, on the model’s ratings
UNDSmall
Home court
UND at home. This season: UND 0-0 at home, MONT 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
MONT has played the 250th-hardest schedule, UND the 293rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MONT plays 71.1 a game (72nd fastest), UND 69.7 (133rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MONT 39%, UND 24%. Transfers in: MONT 0, UND 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MONT 20.7%, UND 27.4%. Defensive: MONT 70.4%, UND 67.6%
Even
UND offense vs MONT defense
Offense 304th of 366 against a defense 294th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MONT -1.4—
Total—150.3—
Projected score—MONT 75.9 · UND 74.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMONT -1.0—
1H total70.3—
1H projected scoreMONT 35.6 · UND 34.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Montana 0, North Dakota 0, even 5
MontanaBetterNorth Dakota
G T. Thompson8.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 24
Even
G Z. Kraft7.7 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 23
G C. Anderson5.6 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G S. Hincapie TR4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 11
G C. Dick1.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G T. Wagner TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
F K. Aguino8.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48
No call
F K. Ouse0.5 pts · 0.4 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
F A. Jedkins0.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
C J. Jones2.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 1
MontanaBetterNorth Dakota
MONT offense256th of 366 · -7.8
MONTSmall
UND defense353rd of 366 · -9.9
MONT defense294th of 366 · -7.4
Even
UND offense304th of 366 · -9.5
Backcourt-3.2 · 3 players
MONTSmall
Backcourt-4.8 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.9 · 2 players
MONTBig
Frontcourt-4.5 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestMONT betterUND betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Montana
Guards
T. Thompson30 minC. Anderson10 minC. Dick9 minG. DutroNewJ. BrownNewJ. ClarkNew
Forwards
K. Aguino24 minA. Jedkins5 minJ. SandersNewC. MpianaNew
North Dakota
Guards
Z. Kraft25 minS. Hincapie16 min · TRT. Wagner7 min · TRL. WinkelNewZ. ParksNewJ. MooreNew
Forwards
K. Ouse6 minA. RadojevicNewJ. ThomasNewD. ElyNew
Centers
J. Jones19 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MONTUND
Scoring
75.7 #148Points per game74.2 #187
1.06 #216Points per possession1.07 #214
71.1 #72Pace (possessions)69.7 #133
Shooting
55.8 #23Effective FG%49.5 #272
36.6 #383-point %32.7 #246
41.8 #1383-point attempt rate40.6 #155
36.8 #135Free throw rate37.9 #106
Possessions
19.5 #339Turnover rate14.1 #27
20.7 #363Offensive rebound rate27.4 #284
14.3 #125Assists per game10.8 #343
Defense
77.6 #254Points allowed79.6 #310
1.09 #204Points allowed per possession1.14 #306
50.5 #129Opponent effective FG%56.5 #353
32.3 #74Opponent 3-point %37.1 #345
14.3 #326Turnovers forced19.3 #36
70.4 #143Defensive rebound rate67.6 #276
5.4 #306Steals per game7.9 #49
2.4 #313Blocks per game2.5 #307
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Montana

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho66–77
  • Wvs Portland St75–72
  • Wvs N Colorado95–89
  • L@ N Colorado57–85
  • Wvs Portland St74–68

A week or more of rest.

North Dakota

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Dakota St62–70
  • Wvs St Thomas67–66
  • Wvs Denver83–67
  • L@ N Dakota St63–96
  • L@ S Dakota St83–91

A week or more of rest.