1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 16
  3. MONT @ KSU
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 16

Montana Grizzlies at Kansas State Wildcats

Bramlage Coliseum · at Kansas St
#273MONTMontana
@
#83KSUKansas St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MONTThis seasonKSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects KSU 85–68 · win probability KSU 93%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 152.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

MONT 4, KSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
KSUBig
KSU offense vs MONT defense
Offense 74th of 366 against a defense 294th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MONT has played the 250th-hardest schedule, KSU the 43rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
KSUBig
MONT offense vs KSU defense
Offense 256th of 366 against a defense 97th, on the model’s ratings
KSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MONT 19.5%, KSU 17.4%. Forced: MONT 14.3%, KSU 17.1%
MONTBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MONT 36.8, KSU 26.9. Allowed: MONT 32.6, KSU 35.2
MONTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MONT 55.8 and allows 50.5; KSU 53.3 and allows 52.5
MONTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MONT 39%, KSU 7%. Transfers in: MONT 0, KSU 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
KSUSmall
Home court
KSU at home. This season: KSU 0-0 at home, MONT 0-0 away
MONTSmall
Three-pointers
MONT hits 36.6% and allows 32.3%; KSU hits 36.4% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 41.8% and 40.9% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: MONT plays 71.1 a game (72nd fastest), KSU 73.8 (11th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MONT 20.7%, KSU 29.2%. Defensive: MONT 70.4%, KSU 66.0%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—KSU -17.1—
Total—152.9—
Projected score—MONT 67.9 · KSU 85

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadKSU -10.1—
1H total71.5—
1H projected scoreMONT 30.7 · KSU 40.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Kansas St has the better starters

Position by position: Montana 0, Kansas St 1, even 4
MontanaBetterKansas St
G T. Thompson8.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 24
KSUBig
G B. Rechsteiner TR12 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 71
G C. Anderson5.6 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Schutt TR7.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 39
G C. Dick1.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Wheeler TR8.4 pts · 1.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 50
F K. Aguino8.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48
Even
F D. Lindsay TR5.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 51
F A. Jedkins0.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F I. Abraham TR4.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31
MontanaBetterKansas St
MONT offense256th of 366 · -7.8
KSUBig
KSU defense97th of 366 · -0.7
MONT defense294th of 366 · -7.4
KSUBig
KSU offense74th of 366 · +1.4
Backcourt-3.2 · 3 players
KSUSmall
Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.9 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMONT betterKSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Montana
Guards
T. Thompson30 minC. Anderson10 minC. Dick9 minG. DutroNewJ. BrownNewJ. ClarkNew
Forwards
K. Aguino24 minA. Jedkins5 minJ. SandersNewC. MpianaNew
Kansas St
Guards
B. Rechsteiner28 min · TRJ. Schutt25 min · TRM. Wheeler22 min · TRA. Kostic14 minJ. AlexanderNew
Forwards
D. Lindsay21 min · TRI. Abraham20 min · TRT. Malovec15 min · TRP. N'Diaye9 min · TRB. Vice6 min · TRM. GilhoolNew
Centers
J. Rock13 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MONTKSU
Scoring
75.7 #148Points per game79.6 #74
1.06 #216Points per possession1.08 #191
71.1 #72Pace (possessions)73.8 #11
Shooting
55.8 #23Effective FG%53.3 #88
36.6 #383-point %36.4 #43
41.8 #1383-point attempt rate40.9 #148
36.8 #135Free throw rate26.9 #351
Possessions
19.5 #339Turnover rate17.4 #233
20.7 #363Offensive rebound rate29.2 #229
14.3 #125Assists per game16.8 #29
Defense
77.6 #254Points allowed81.8 #339
1.09 #204Points allowed per possession1.11 #244
50.5 #129Opponent effective FG%52.5 #239
32.3 #74Opponent 3-point %33.7 #166
14.3 #326Turnovers forced17.1 #145
70.4 #143Defensive rebound rate66.0 #317
5.4 #306Steals per game7.0 #121
2.4 #313Blocks per game3.5 #137
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Montana

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho66–77
  • Wvs Portland St75–72
  • Wvs N Colorado95–89
  • L@ N Colorado57–85
  • Wvs Portland St74–68

A week or more of rest.

Kansas St

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 3-16 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs BYU91–105
  • L@ Kansas85–104
  • Wvs West Virginia65–63
  • Lvs TCU68–77
  • L@ Colorado70–79

A week or more of rest.