Western Illinois Leathernecks at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 16, 8:00 PM ETThe Barn by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota · at Minnesota

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: W Illinois and Minnesota
WIU	This season	MINN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MINN 85–51 · win probability MINN 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 135.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MINN has more of the edges

WIU 0, MINN 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MINNBig

WIU offense vs MINN defense

Offense 365th of 366 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

WIU has played the 361st-hardest schedule, MINN the 71st. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINNBig

MINN offense vs WIU defense

Offense 120th of 366 against a defense 362nd, on the model’s ratings

MINNBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: WIU 44.5 and allows 54.2; MINN 53.9 and allows 51.9

MINNSmall

Three-pointers

WIU hits 30.9% and allows 35.6%; MINN hits 34.1% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 33.3% and 47.1% of their shots

MINNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WIU 17.5%, MINN 16.6%. Forced: WIU 14.9%, MINN 16.8%

MINNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WIU 27.0%, MINN 26.8%. Defensive: WIU 65.2%, MINN 70.5%

MINNSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WIU 21%, MINN 66%. Transfers in: WIU 0, MINN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: WIU plays 67.6 a game (246th fastest), MINN 63.6 (362nd). Faster games mean more points

MINNSmall

Home court

MINN at home. This season: MINN 0-0 at home, WIU 0-0 away

MINNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WIU 37.7, MINN 35.8. Allowed: WIU 34.8, MINN 26.9

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MINN -34.2	—
Total	—	135.5	—
Projected score	—	WIU 50.6 · MINN 84.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MINN -20.2	—
1H total	63.5	—
1H projected score	WIU 21.6 · MINN 41.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIU LLLLL	11-17	39%	8-8	—
MINN WLLLL	13-20	39%	8-9	—

Venue/role: WIU away; MINN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIU UOUUO	13-15	46%	2-26
MINN OUUOU	12-21	36%	15-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIU	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
MINN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

W Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs UALB	No recent meeting
Nov 21	vs MERC	No recent meeting
Nov 22	@ CAN	No recent meeting

Minnesota

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs OKST	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs UTAH	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs CAL	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

W Illinois

28 games played

Straight up

2-26

7% wins

Against the spread

11-17

39% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-15

46% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-267%

L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1739%

W W L W L L L W L W W L L L W W W L W L L L W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1546%

O U U U O O O U O U U U O U U O U O O U O U O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@RAD	L 75-80	+16.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 155
Nov 7	@IOWA	L 58-77	+30.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 135
Nov 11	@CSUB	L 58-74	+7.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 14	@CBU	L 59-69	+15.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 128
Nov 21	vsCCU	L 64-84	+3.5	L −16.5	138.5	O 148
Nov 23	vsUND	L 69-78	+2.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 2	@DRKE	L 57-108	+17.5	L −33.5	138.5	O 165
Dec 13	@UND	W 69-66	+7.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 18	@LIN	L 76-92	+12.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 168
Dec 22	vsSIUE	L 61-66	+6.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 127
Jan 1	@UTM	L 60-67	+13.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 127
Jan 3	@SEMO	L 50-73	+13.5	L −9.5	147.5	U 123
Jan 8	vsTNST	L 68-90	+6.5	L −15.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 10	vsTNTC	L 54-59	+3.5	L −1.5	143.5	U 113
Jan 13	@EIU	L 55-57	+6.5	W +4.5	132.5	U 112
Jan 17	@LR	L 79-86	+10.5	W +3.5	135.5	O 165
Jan 22	@MORE	L 66-71	+8.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 137
Jan 23	@USI	L 64-96	+6.5	L −25.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 29	vsSEMO	L 74-78	+10.5	W +6.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 31	vsUTM	L 44-84	+10.5	L −29.5	137.5	U 128
Feb 5	@TNTC	L 72-97	+9.5	L −15.5	143.5	O 169
Feb 7	@TNST	L 56-83	+15.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 139
Feb 10	vsEIU	W 79-70	+4.5	W +13.5	133.5	O 149
Feb 12	vsLR	L 58-77	+7.5	L −11.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 19	vsUSI	L 70-77	+3.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 21	vsMORE	L 59-81	+8.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 140
Feb 26	@SIUE	L 47-67	+13.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 114
Feb 28	vsLIN	L 69-91	+11.5	L −10.5	149.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RAD

L 75-80

+11.5

IOWA

L 58-77

+11.5

CSUB

L 58-74

−8.5

CBU

L 59-69

+5.5

CCU

L 64-84

−16.5

UND

L 69-78

−6.5

DRKE

L 57-108

−33.5

UND

W 69-66

+10.5

LIN

L 76-92

−3.5

SIUE

L 61-66

+1.5

UTM

L 60-67

+6.5

SEMO

L 50-73

−9.5

TNST

L 68-90

−15.5

TNTC

L 54-59

−1.5

EIU

L 55-57

+4.5

L 79-86

+3.5

L 66-71

+3.5

USI

L 64-96

−25.5

SEMO

L 74-78

+6.5

UTM

L 44-84

−29.5

TNTC

L 72-97

−15.5

TNST

L 56-83

−11.5

EIU

W 79-70

+13.5

L 58-77

−11.5

USI

L 70-77

−3.5

L 59-81

−13.5

SIUE

L 47-67

−6.5

LIN

L 69-91

−10.5

covered 11didn’t cover 17avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RAD

L 75-80

+3.5

IOWA

L 58-77

−10.5

CSUB

L 58-74

−9.5

CBU

L 59-69

−12.5

CCU

L 64-84

+9.5

UND

L 69-78

+0.5

DRKE

L 57-108

+26.5

UND

W 69-66

−10.5

LIN

L 76-92

+21.5

SIUE

L 61-66

−11.5

UTM

L 60-67

−13.5

SEMO

L 50-73

−24.5

TNST

L 68-90

+12.5

TNTC

L 54-59

−30.5

EIU

L 55-57

−20.5

L 79-86

+29.5

L 66-71

−1.5

USI

L 64-96

+23.5

SEMO

L 74-78

+9.5

UTM

L 44-84

−9.5

TNTC

L 72-97

+25.5

TNST

L 56-83

−12.5

EIU

W 79-70

+15.5

L 58-77

−6.5

USI

L 70-77

+6.5

L 59-81

−3.5

SIUE

L 47-67

−21.5

LIN

L 69-91

+10.5

over 13under 15avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Minnesota

33 games played

Straight up

15-18

45% wins

Against the spread

13-20

39% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-21

36% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1845%

W W L W W L L L W L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L L W W L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-2039%

L W L L L L L L W L W W L W W L L W L L W L W L L W W W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2136%

U U U U U O U O U U U U U O O U O O O U U O O U U U O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGWEB	W 87-60	-28.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 8	vsALCN	W 95-50	-31.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 12	@MIZ	L 60-83	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 15	vsGB	W 72-65	-25.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 18	vsCHST	W 66-54	-27.5	L −15.5	144.5	U 120
Nov 22	vsSF	L 65-77	-1.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 27	vsSTAN	L 68-72	+2.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 28	vsSCU	L 75-86	+5.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 161
Dec 3	vsIU	W 73-64	+7.5	W +16.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 10	@PUR	L 57-85	+19.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 14	vsTXSO	W 89-53	-21.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 21	vsCAM	W 78-50	-13.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 128
Dec 29	vsFDU	W 60-43	-25.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 103
Jan 3	@NU	W 84-78	+4.5	W +10.5	138.5	O 162
Jan 6	vsIOWA	W 70-67	+4.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 137
Jan 9	vsUSC	L 69-70	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 13	vsWIS	L 75-78	+1.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 153
Jan 17	@ILL	L 67-77	+15.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 20	@OSU	L 74-82	+7.5	L −0.5	143.5	O 156
Jan 24	vsNEB	L 57-76	+4.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 28	@WIS	L 63-67	+9.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 130
Feb 1	@PSU	L 75-77	-2.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 4	vsMSU	W 76-73	+8.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 149
Feb 8	vsMD	L 62-67	-10.5	L −15.5	138.5	U 129
Feb 14	@WASH	L 57-69	+6.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 126
Feb 17	@ORE	W 61-44	+3.5	W +20.5	136.5	U 105
Feb 21	vsRUTG	W 80-61	-8.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 24	@MICH	L 67-77	+22.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 144
Feb 28	vsUCLA	W 78-73	+1.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 151
Mar 4	@IU	L 47-77	+7.5	L −22.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 7	vsNU	W 67-66	-4.5	L −3.5	133.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsRUTG	L 67-72	-6.5	L −11.5	135.5	O 139
Apr 1	vsBAY	L 48-67	+3.5	L −15.5	146.5	U 115

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

+13.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−18.5

CHST

W 66-54

−15.5

L 65-77

−13.5

STAN

L 68-72

−1.5

SCU

L 75-86

−5.5

W 73-64

+16.5

PUR

L 57-85

−8.5

TXSO

W 89-53

+14.5

CAM

W 78-50

+14.5

FDU

W 60-43

−8.5

W 84-78

+10.5

IOWA

W 70-67

+7.5

USC

L 69-70

−4.5

WIS

L 75-78

−1.5

ILL

L 67-77

+5.5

OSU

L 74-82

−0.5

NEB

L 57-76

−14.5

WIS

L 63-67

+5.5

PSU

L 75-77

−4.5

MSU

W 76-73

+11.5

L 62-67

−15.5

WASH

L 57-69

−5.5

ORE

W 61-44

+20.5

RUTG

W 80-61

+10.5

MICH

L 67-77

+12.5

UCLA

W 78-73

+6.5

L 47-77

−22.5

W 67-66

−3.5

RUTG

L 67-72

−11.5

BAY

L 48-67

−15.5

covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

−7.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−9.5

CHST

W 66-54

−24.5

L 65-77

+1.5

STAN

L 68-72

−2.5

SCU

L 75-86

+22.5

W 73-64

−7.5

PUR

L 57-85

−1.5

TXSO

W 89-53

−2.5

CAM

W 78-50

−17.5

FDU

W 60-43

−36.5

W 84-78

+23.5

IOWA

W 70-67

+6.5

USC

L 69-70

−8.5

WIS

L 75-78

+6.5

ILL

L 67-77

+1.5

OSU

L 74-82

+12.5

NEB

L 57-76

−7.5

WIS

L 63-67

−16.5

PSU

L 75-77

+9.5

MSU

W 76-73

+12.5

L 62-67

−9.5

WASH

L 57-69

−12.5

ORE

W 61-44

−31.5

RUTG

W 80-61

+4.5

MICH

L 67-77

−1.5

UCLA

W 78-73

+14.5

L 47-77

−14.5

W 67-66

−0.5

RUTG

L 67-72

+3.5

BAY

L 48-67

−31.5

over 12under 21avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Minnesota has the better starters

Position by position: W Illinois 0, Minnesota 2, even 3

W IllinoisBetterMinnesota

G M. Kvamme5 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 9

MINNBig

G I. Asuma10.9 pts · 4 reb · 3.7 ast Score 64

F D. Stephens5.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13

MINNSmall

G M. Palmer TR4.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 43

F J. Riley NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F B. Durkin10.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F I. Davis NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F J. Crocker-Johnson13.4 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 81

F D. Traylor NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F G. Grove4 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 59

W IllinoisBetterMinnesota

WIU offense365th of 366 · -15.6

MINNBig

MINN defense22nd of 366 · +5.2

WIU defense362nd of 366 · -11.6

MINNBig

MINN offense120th of 366 · -2.8

Backcourt-3.1 · 1 player

MINNSmall

Backcourt-0.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.7 · 4 players

MINNBig

Frontcourt+2.9 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-2.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWIU betterMINN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

W Illinois

Guards

M. Kvamme26 minD. FlowersNewH. VaughnNewA. KonateNewJ. CainNewT. MooreNew

Forwards

D. Stephens17 minJ. RileyNewI. DavisNewD. TraylorNewM. BiembongoNewS. HigginsNew

Minnesota

Guards

I. Asuma34 minM. Palmer18 min · TRK. Evans18 min · TRK. Shinholster13 minN. Groves6 min · TRW. Grady6 min · TR

Forwards

B. Durkin33 minJ. Crocker-Johnson32 minG. Grove21 minN. AndersonNew

Centers

M. Kordel4 min · TRC. MpoyiNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WIU63.2 #357

MINN69.4 #294

Points per possession

WIU0.94 #359

MINN1.10 #147

Pace (possessions)

WIU67.6 #246

MINN63.6 #362

Shooting

Effective FG%

WIU44.5 #361

MINN53.9 #69

3-point %

WIU30.9 #322

MINN34.1 #164

3-point attempt rate

WIU33.3 #311

MINN47.1 #31

Free throw rate

WIU37.7 #108

MINN35.8 #159

Possessions

Turnover rate

WIU17.5 #239

MINN16.6 #170

Offensive rebound rate

WIU27.0 #293

MINN26.8 #304

Assists per game

WIU8.1 #365

MINN17.0 #25

Defense

Points allowed

WIU78.5 #281

MINN68.5 #38

Points allowed per possession

WIU1.16 #334

MINN1.07 #139

Opponent effective FG%

WIU54.2 #303

MINN51.9 #207

Opponent 3-point %

WIU35.6 #288

MINN34.6 #229

Turnovers forced

WIU14.9 #300

MINN16.8 #168

Defensive rebound rate

WIU65.2 #334

MINN70.5 #137

Steals per game

WIU5.1 #331

MINN6.3 #197

Blocks per game

WIU2.0 #346

MINN2.7 #284

WIU		MINN
Scoring
63.2 #357	Points per game	69.4 #294
0.94 #359	Points per possession	1.10 #147
67.6 #246	Pace (possessions)	63.6 #362
Shooting
44.5 #361	Effective FG%	53.9 #69
30.9 #322	3-point %	34.1 #164
33.3 #311	3-point attempt rate	47.1 #31
37.7 #108	Free throw rate	35.8 #159
Possessions
17.5 #239	Turnover rate	16.6 #170
27.0 #293	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #304
8.1 #365	Assists per game	17.0 #25
Defense
78.5 #281	Points allowed	68.5 #38
1.16 #334	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #139
54.2 #303	Opponent effective FG%	51.9 #207
35.6 #288	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #229
14.9 #300	Turnovers forced	16.8 #168
65.2 #334	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #137
5.1 #331	Steals per game	6.3 #197
2.0 #346	Blocks per game	2.7 #284

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

W Illinois

2-26 in 2025-26 overall · 1-19 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Lindenwood Lions69–91
L@ SIUE47–67
Lvs Morehead St59–81
Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles70–77
Lvs Little Rock58–77

A week or more of rest.

Minnesota

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Baylor48–67
Lvs Rutgers67–72
Wvs Northwestern67–66
L@ Indiana47–77
Wvs UCLA78–73

A week or more of rest.

Western Illinois Leathernecks at Minnesota Golden Gophers

What could decide it: MINN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

W Illinois

Minnesota

Minnesota has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

W Illinois

Minnesota