1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 21
  3. MERC vs WIU
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Mercyhurst Lakers vs Western Illinois Leathernecks

Koessler Athletic Center · Neutral site
#331MERCMercyhurst
vs
#365WIUW Illinois
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MERCThis seasonWIU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MERC 75–65 · win probability MERC 81%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 140.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MERC has more of the edges

MERC 5, WIU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MERCBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MERC 14.3%, WIU 17.5%. Forced: MERC 18.6%, WIU 14.9%
WIUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MERC 25.6, WIU 37.7. Allowed: MERC 42.6, WIU 34.8
MERCBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MERC 49.5 and allows 50.1; WIU 44.5 and allows 54.2
MERCBig
Three-pointers
MERC hits 32.1% and allows 32.3%; WIU hits 30.9% and allows 35.6%. Threes are 31.1% and 33.3% of their shots
MERCSmall
WIU offense vs MERC defense
Offense 365th of 366 against a defense 272nd, on the model’s ratings
MERCSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MERC 26.4%, WIU 27.0%. Defensive: MERC 70.1%, WIU 65.2%
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: MERC plays 65.6 a game (327th fastest), WIU 67.6 (246th). Faster games mean more points
Even
MERC offense vs WIU defense
Offense 346th of 366 against a defense 362nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MERC 26%, WIU 21%. Transfers in: MERC 3, WIU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Context
Schedule so far
MERC has played the 356th-hardest schedule, WIU the 361st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MERC -10.2—
Total—140.1—
Projected score—MERC 75.2 · WIU 64.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMERC -6.2—
1H total65.6—
1H projected scoreMERC 35.9 · WIU 29.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Mercyhurst has the better starters

Position by position: Mercyhurst 1, W Illinois 0, even 4
MercyhurstBetterW Illinois
G J. Lemelman14.4 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61
MERCBig
G M. Kvamme5 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 9
G D. Kelly TR5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 6
Even
F D. Stephens5.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13
G M. Jackson TR0.5 pts · 2 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Riley NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F T. Rainwater TR9.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 48
No call
F I. Davis NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F C. Johnson2.8 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 2
No call
F D. Traylor NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
MercyhurstBetterW Illinois
MERC offense346th of 366 · -11.9
Even
WIU defense362nd of 366 · -11.6
MERC defense272nd of 366 · -6.9
MERCSmall
WIU offense365th of 366 · -15.6
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-3.1 · 1 player
Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-1.7 · 4 players
Bench-0.9 · 3 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestMERC betterWIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mercyhurst
Guards
J. Lemelman31 minD. Kelly21 min · TRM. Jackson7 min · TRO. Faran4 minB. Conner3 minM. Maxwell-GrimesNew
Forwards
T. Rainwater25 min · TRC. Johnson12 minC. Leman2 minD. AgbaosiNewS. KirkerNew
W Illinois
Guards
M. Kvamme26 minD. FlowersNewH. VaughnNewA. KonateNewJ. CainNewT. MooreNew
Forwards
D. Stephens17 minJ. RileyNewI. DavisNewD. TraylorNewM. BiembongoNewS. HigginsNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MERCWIU
Scoring
68.3 #310Points per game63.2 #357
1.04 #260Points per possession0.94 #359
65.6 #327Pace (possessions)67.6 #246
Shooting
49.5 #269Effective FG%44.5 #361
32.1 #2763-point %30.9 #322
31.1 #3383-point attempt rate33.3 #311
25.6 #361Free throw rate37.7 #108
Possessions
14.3 #35Turnover rate17.5 #239
26.4 #312Offensive rebound rate27.0 #293
14.0 #148Assists per game8.1 #365
Defense
68.7 #43Points allowed78.5 #281
1.04 #76Points allowed per possession1.16 #334
50.1 #107Opponent effective FG%54.2 #303
32.3 #80Opponent 3-point %35.6 #288
18.6 #68Turnovers forced14.9 #300
70.1 #153Defensive rebound rate65.2 #334
7.0 #130Steals per game5.1 #331
3.8 #94Blocks per game2.0 #346
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mercyhurst

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Long Island70–79
  • Wvs Stonehill56–51
  • Wvs FDU70–61
  • W@ Stonehill75–72
  • L@ C Connecticut78–80

A week or more of rest.

W Illinois

2-26 in 2025-26 overall · 1-19 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Lindenwood Lions69–91
  • L@ SIUE47–67
  • Lvs Morehead St59–81
  • Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles70–77
  • Lvs Little Rock58–77

A week or more of rest.