1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 21
  3. STBK @ SPU
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Stony Brook Seawolves at Saint Peter's Peacocks

Yanitelli Center · at Saint Peter's
#191STBKStony Brook
@
#269SPUSaint Peter's
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
STBKThis seasonSPU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects STBK 70–69 · win probability STBK 56%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 139.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SPU has more of the edges

STBK 1, SPU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
STBKBig
SPU offense vs STBK defense
Offense 336th of 366 against a defense 164th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
STBK has played the 204th-hardest schedule, SPU the 335th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SPUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: STBK 28.0%, SPU 37.0%. Defensive: STBK 67.7%, SPU 65.3%
SPUSmall
STBK offense vs SPU defense
Offense 235th of 366 against a defense 182nd, on the model’s ratings
SPUSmall
Home court
SPU at home. This season: SPU 0-0 at home, STBK 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: STBK 48%, SPU 32%. Transfers in: STBK 5, SPU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: STBK 16.7%, SPU 17.7%. Forced: STBK 17.2%, SPU 20.0%
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: STBK plays 67.3 a game (269th fastest), SPU 66.1 (308th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
STBK hits 34.8% and allows 35.7%; SPU hits 31.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 45.8% and 38.8% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: STBK 50.2 and allows 50.7; SPU 46.4 and allows 48.1
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: STBK 28.4, SPU 35.5. Allowed: STBK 35.4, SPU 46.4
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—STBK -1.6—
Total—139.3—
Projected score—STBK 70.4 · SPU 68.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSTBK -1.1—
1H total65.2—
1H projected scoreSTBK 33.1 · SPU 32.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Stony Brook has the better starters

Position by position: Stony Brook 1, Saint Peter's 0, even 4
Stony BrookBetterSaint Peter's
G C. O'Connor8.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.8 ast Not ranked
No call
G B. Wilson TR9.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 1 ast Score 29
G E. Simmon6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 46
Even
G B. Eaton11.2 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 56
F B. Ndjonga TR13.8 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 45
STBKBig
G E. Perkins4 pts · 3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 9
F T. Valentiny4.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 18
No call
G S. Simpson3.1 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
F Q. Gorman3.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 25
No call
F T. Patterson TR1.4 pts · 1.6 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
Stony BrookBetterSaint Peter's
STBK offense235th of 366 · -7.2
Even
SPU defense182nd of 366 · -4.1
STBK defense164th of 366 · -3.7
STBKBig
SPU offense336th of 366 · -11.0
Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players
STBKBig
Backcourt-6.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-3.4 · 3 players
SPUSmall
Frontcourt-0.6 · 1 player
Bench-0.4 · 5 players
Even
Bench-1.1 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestSTBK betterSPU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Stony Brook
Guards
C. O'Connor27 minE. Simmon17 minJ. Butler13 minM. Ugusuk11 min · TRK. Price7 min · TRL. Dagostino2 min
Forwards
B. Ndjonga33 min · TRT. Valentiny19 minQ. Gorman19 minJ. Daughtry16 min · TRE. Vatan3 min · TR
Centers
L. Van ElswykNew
Saint Peter's
Guards
B. Wilson28 min · TRB. Eaton28 minE. Perkins26 minS. Simpson11 minP. Glassnor6 min · TRK. WalkerNew
Forwards
T. Patterson8 min · TRB. Tshilobo2 min · TRA. WatsonNewX. ThomasNewJ. MathewsNew
Centers
J. Noudjihidi7 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
STBKSPU
Scoring
70.7 #270Points per game69.2 #296
1.05 #254Points per possession1.05 #252
67.3 #269Pace (possessions)66.1 #308
Shooting
50.2 #227Effective FG%46.4 #347
34.8 #1283-point %31.0 #321
45.8 #503-point attempt rate38.8 #197
28.4 #339Free throw rate35.5 #163
Possessions
16.7 #181Turnover rate17.7 #251
28.0 #267Offensive rebound rate37.0 #16
12.9 #216Assists per game12.5 #253
Defense
72.5 #118Points allowed69.1 #48
1.08 #168Points allowed per possession1.04 #78
50.7 #138Opponent effective FG%48.1 #39
35.7 #291Opponent 3-point %32.1 #68
17.2 #135Turnovers forced20.0 #23
67.7 #275Defensive rebound rate65.3 #330
6.3 #201Steals per game8.8 #13
3.6 #122Blocks per game3.9 #92
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Stony Brook

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Campbell89–96
  • Lvs Towson57–69
  • L@ Hofstra58–67
  • L@ Monmouth69–82
  • Wvs Hampton79–72

A week or more of rest.

Saint Peter's

16-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Fairfield55–74
  • W@ Marist63–56
  • Wvs Manhattan75–65
  • L@ Siena63–72
  • L@ Iona64–72

A week or more of rest.