1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 22
  3. UALB vs MERC
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 22

UAlbany Great Danes vs Mercyhurst Lakers

Koessler Athletic Center · Neutral site
#301UALBUAlbany
vs
#331MERCMercyhurst
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UALBThis seasonMERC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MERC 70–70 · win probability MERC 51%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 140.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UALB has more of the edges

UALB 3, MERC 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MERCBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UALB 18.5%, MERC 14.3%. Forced: UALB 15.8%, MERC 18.6%
MERCSmall
Three-pointers
UALB hits 32.6% and allows 36.0%; MERC hits 32.1% and allows 32.3%. Threes are 37.6% and 31.1% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
UALB has played the 260th-hardest schedule, MERC the 356th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UALBSmall
MERC offense vs UALB defense
Offense 346th of 366 against a defense 259th, on the model’s ratings
UALBSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UALB 24.9, MERC 25.6. Allowed: UALB 35.7, MERC 42.6
UALBSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UALB 32.7%, MERC 26.4%. Defensive: UALB 67.6%, MERC 70.1%
Even
UALB offense vs MERC defense
Offense 313th of 366 against a defense 272nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UALB 51.4 and allows 53.2; MERC 49.5 and allows 50.1
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UALB 38%, MERC 26%. Transfers in: UALB 3, MERC 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: UALB plays 65.6 a game (324th fastest), MERC 65.6 (327th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MERC -0.2—
Total—140.1—
Projected score—UALB 70 · MERC 70.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUALB -0.0—
1H total65.6—
1H projected scoreUALB 32.8 · MERC 32.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Mercyhurst has the better starters

Position by position: UAlbany 1, Mercyhurst 2, even 2
UAlbanyBetterMercyhurst
G A. Fall9.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 27
MERCSmall
G J. Lemelman14.4 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61
G Z. Matulu9.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 48
UALBBig
G D. Kelly TR5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 6
G P. Santos TR6.9 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51
No call
G M. Jackson TR0.5 pts · 2 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
G M. Rose2.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 1
MERCBig
F T. Rainwater TR9.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 48
F B. Michaels TR1.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3
Even
F C. Johnson2.8 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 2
UAlbanyBetterMercyhurst
UALB offense313th of 366 · -10.0
Even
MERC defense272nd of 366 · -6.9
UALB defense259th of 366 · -6.7
UALBSmall
MERC offense346th of 366 · -11.9
Backcourt-6.0 · 4 players
MERCSmall
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players
Bench-0.2 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.9 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestUALB betterMERC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UAlbany
Guards
A. Fall31 minZ. Matulu30 minP. Santos19 min · TRM. Rose15 minP. KountaNewO. EngenNew
Forwards
B. Michaels13 min · TRE. BussingNewP. MiovicNewU. GrahamNew
Centers
K. Webb3 min · TRC. SmithNew
Mercyhurst
Guards
J. Lemelman31 minD. Kelly21 min · TRM. Jackson7 min · TRO. Faran4 minB. Conner3 minM. Maxwell-GrimesNew
Forwards
T. Rainwater25 min · TRC. Johnson12 minC. Leman2 minD. AgbaosiNewS. KirkerNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UALBMERC
Scoring
68.7 #302Points per game68.3 #310
1.05 #259Points per possession1.04 #260
65.6 #324Pace (possessions)65.6 #327
Shooting
51.4 #182Effective FG%49.5 #269
32.6 #2483-point %32.1 #276
37.6 #2203-point attempt rate31.1 #338
24.9 #364Free throw rate25.6 #361
Possessions
18.5 #299Turnover rate14.3 #35
32.7 #99Offensive rebound rate26.4 #312
12.8 #232Assists per game14.0 #148
Defense
74.5 #176Points allowed68.7 #43
1.14 #302Points allowed per possession1.04 #76
53.2 #275Opponent effective FG%50.1 #107
36.0 #302Opponent 3-point %32.3 #80
15.8 #228Turnovers forced18.6 #68
67.6 #277Defensive rebound rate70.1 #153
6.7 #153Steals per game7.0 #130
3.9 #82Blocks per game3.8 #94
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UAlbany

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMass Lowell76–81
  • L@ Vermont56–69
  • Wvs New Hampshire84–61
  • Lvs Maine59–70
  • L@ UMBC62–66

A week or more of rest.

Mercyhurst

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Long Island70–79
  • Wvs Stonehill56–51
  • Wvs FDU70–61
  • W@ Stonehill75–72
  • L@ C Connecticut78–80

A week or more of rest.