McNeese Cowboys at Texas State Bobcats: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 22, 3:30 PM ETStrahan Arena at the University Events Center · at Texas St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: McNeese and Texas St
MCN	This season	TXST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TXST 75–72 · win probability TXST 63%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

MCN 3, TXST 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MCNBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MCN 14.2%, TXST 18.7%. Forced: MCN 24.4%, TXST 18.5%

TXSTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MCN 35.1%, TXST 33.9%. Defensive: MCN 65.1%, TXST 71.6%

MCNSmall

Three-pointers

MCN hits 31.7% and allows 32.7%; TXST hits 32.2% and allows 35.7%. Threes are 35.2% and 24.6% of their shots

MCNSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MCN 50.7 and allows 49.3; TXST 50.0 and allows 52.0

TXSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MCN 33%, TXST 69%. Transfers in: MCN 5, TXST 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

TXSTSmall

Home court

TXST at home. This season: TXST 0-0 at home, MCN 0-0 away

Even

MCN offense vs TXST defense

Offense 153rd of 366 against a defense 112th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MCN has played the 258th-hardest schedule, TXST the 298th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MCN 37.4, TXST 34.0. Allowed: MCN 42.0, TXST 39.0

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: MCN plays 67.1 a game (276th fastest), TXST 68.2 (223rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

TXST offense vs MCN defense

Offense 105th of 366 against a defense 117th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TXST -3.6	—
Total	—	146.6	—
Projected score	—	MCN 71.5 · TXST 75.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TXST -2.0	—
1H total	68.6	—
1H projected score	MCN 33.3 · TXST 35.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MCN LWLWW	16-16	50%	4-10	—
TXST LWLWL	14-16	47%	10-5	—

Venue/role: MCN away; TXST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MCN UUOOU	15-17	47%	26-6
TXST OOUUO	16-14	53%	17-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MCN	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
TXST	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

McNeese

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ UL	W88–62WO
Dec 5	vs HCU	W73–69LO
Dec 7	vs UIW	W81–64WU

Texas St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs ALCN	No recent meeting
Nov 27	@ LT	No recent meeting
Nov 29	vs NICH	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MCN 1–0 TXSTMCN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MCN 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 21, 2023-24	MCN 59 vs TXST 48	TXST +4.5	MCN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

McNeese

32 games played

Straight up

26-6

81% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

26-681%

L W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

L W W W W L W W W L L L L L W L W W L L L W L W L W L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O O U U U O U O O O O U U O O U U O U U U O O O U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SCU	L 67-79	+6.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 146
Nov 14	vsUL	W 88-62	-15.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 23	vsGW	W 92-86	+5.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsMUR	W 73-60	-2.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 25	vsMTSU	W 72-62	-9.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 134
Dec 1	@UIW	L 67-71	-10.5	L −14.5	145.5	U 138
Dec 5	vsNWST	W 92-54	-19.5	W +18.5	139.5	O 146
Dec 9	@URI	W 66-64	-1.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 12	vsETAM	W 102-66	-20.5	W +15.5	142.5	O 168
Dec 15	@HCU	W 78-68	-14.5	L −4.5	137.5	O 146
Dec 29	@MICH	L 71-112	+24.5	L −16.5	161.5	O 183
Jan 2	vsLAM	W 82-70	-16.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 5	vsSFA	W 66-64	-10.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 10	vsSELA	W 73-61	-16.5	L −4.5	138.5	U 134
Jan 12	vsNICH	W 94-68	-15.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 17	@RGV	L 76-79	-9.5	L −12.5	146.5	O 155
Jan 19	@AMCC	W 69-53	-9.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 122
Jan 24	vsNOLA	W 82-63	-18.5	W +0.5	156.5	U 145
Jan 27	@SELA	W 76-66	-12.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 142
Jan 31	@LAM	W 64-63	-10.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 127
Feb 2	@SFA	L 60-67	-2.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 127
Feb 7	vsUIW	W 81-64	-16.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 145
Feb 9	vsHCU	W 73-69	-21.5	L −17.5	137.5	O 142
Feb 14	@ETAM	W 97-54	-13.5	W +29.5	142.5	O 151
Feb 16	@NWST	W 75-64	-14.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 139
Feb 21	vsAMCC	W 70-54	-14.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 124
Feb 23	vsRGV	W 75-68	-11.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 143
Feb 28	@NOLA	W 66-63	-10.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 129
Mar 2	@NICH	W 75-65	-9.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 140
Mar 10	vsRGV	W 84-80	-8.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 164
Mar 11	vsSFA	W 76-59	-3.5	W +13.5	134.5	O 135
Mar 19	vsVAN	L 68-78	+12.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SCU

L 67-79

−5.5

W 88-62

+10.5

W 92-86

+11.5

MUR

W 73-60

+10.5

MTSU

W 72-62

+0.5

UIW

L 67-71

−14.5

NWST

W 92-54

+18.5

URI

W 66-64

+0.5

ETAM

W 102-66

+15.5

HCU

W 78-68

−4.5

MICH

L 71-112

−16.5

LAM

W 82-70

−4.5

SFA

W 66-64

−8.5

SELA

W 73-61

−4.5

NICH

W 94-68

+10.5

RGV

L 76-79

−12.5

AMCC

W 69-53

+6.5

NOLA

W 82-63

+0.5

SELA

W 76-66

−2.5

LAM

W 64-63

−9.5

SFA

L 60-67

−9.5

UIW

W 81-64

+0.5

HCU

W 73-69

−17.5

ETAM

W 97-54

+29.5

NWST

W 75-64

−3.5

AMCC

W 70-54

+1.5

RGV

W 75-68

−4.5

NOLA

W 66-63

−7.5

NICH

W 75-65

+0.5

RGV

W 84-80

−4.5

SFA

W 76-59

+13.5

VAN

L 68-78

+2.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SCU

L 67-79

−5.5

W 88-62

+15.5

W 92-86

+20.5

MUR

W 73-60

−25.5

MTSU

W 72-62

−13.5

UIW

L 67-71

−7.5

NWST

W 92-54

+6.5

URI

W 66-64

−16.5

ETAM

W 102-66

+25.5

HCU

W 78-68

+8.5

MICH

L 71-112

+21.5

LAM

W 82-70

+6.5

SFA

W 66-64

−14.5

SELA

W 73-61

−4.5

NICH

W 94-68

+15.5

RGV

L 76-79

+8.5

AMCC

W 69-53

−18.5

NOLA

W 82-63

−11.5

SELA

W 76-66

+2.5

LAM

W 64-63

−17.5

SFA

L 60-67

−14.5

UIW

W 81-64

−0.5

HCU

W 73-69

+4.5

ETAM

W 97-54

+8.5

NWST

W 75-64

+0.5

AMCC

W 70-54

−15.5

RGV

W 75-68

−3.5

NOLA

W 66-63

−21.5

NICH

W 75-65

−5.5

RGV

W 84-80

+23.5

SFA

W 76-59

+0.5

VAN

L 68-78

−2.5

over 15under 17avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Texas St

30 games played

Straight up

17-13

57% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1357%

L L W W W W L L L W L W L W L L W W L L W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L W W W W W L L L L L L L L L W L W L L W W W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

U O O U U U U O O O O U O O O O U O O U U O U U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BGSU	L 48-83	+5.5	L −29.5	146.5	U 131
Nov 8	@TULN	L 71-79	+12.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 150
Nov 12	vsUTSA	W 80-69	-2.5	W +8.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 15	vsTXSO	W 77-67	-4.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 144
Nov 18	vsACU	W 63-49	-1.5	W +12.5	138.5	U 112
Nov 21	vsLR	W 65-56	-5.5	W +3.5	131.5	U 121
Nov 28	vsSEA	L 52-66	+7.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 118
Nov 29	vsLEH	L 74-78	-6.5	L −10.5	135.5	O 152
Dec 3	@RICE	L 72-77	+3.5	L −1.5	133.5	O 149
Dec 10	vsSOU	W 86-83	-3.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 169
Dec 17	vsARST	L 70-89	+4.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 159
Dec 20	vsUSA	W 67-65	-3.5	L −1.5	136.5	U 132
Dec 31	@TROY	L 80-100	+8.5	L −11.5	145.5	O 180
Jan 3	@ULM	W 84-79	-10.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 8	@USM	L 70-80	+2.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 150
Jan 10	@ARST	L 82-83	+11.5	W +10.5	156.5	O 165
Jan 14	vsUL	W 59-54	-8.5	L −3.5	133.5	U 113
Jan 17	vsUSM	W 74-67	-2.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 141
Jan 22	@CCU	L 70-72	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 142
Jan 24	@JMU	L 57-82	+5.5	L −19.5	143.5	U 139
Jan 28	vsMRSH	W 72-68	+3.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 31	vsODU	W 81-64	-2.5	W +14.5	143.5	O 145
Feb 4	@GASO	W 77-71	+4.5	W +10.5	151.5	U 148
Feb 7	vsWMU	W 77-61	-6.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 138
Feb 11	vsTROY	W 74-62	+5.5	W +17.5	140.5	U 136
Feb 14	vsULM	W 95-84	-14.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 179
Feb 19	@USA	W 90-82	+3.5	W +11.5	137.5	O 172
Feb 21	@UL	L 54-67	-3.5	L −16.5	134.5	U 121
Feb 27	vsAPP	W 60-57	+1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 117
Mar 6	vsUSM	L 77-81	-1.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BGSU

L 48-83

−29.5

TULN

L 71-79

+4.5

UTSA

W 80-69

+8.5

TXSO

W 77-67

+5.5

ACU

W 63-49

+12.5

W 65-56

+3.5

SEA

L 52-66

−6.5

LEH

L 74-78

−10.5

RICE

L 72-77

−1.5

SOU

W 86-83

−0.5

ARST

L 70-89

−14.5

USA

W 67-65

−1.5

TROY

L 80-100

−11.5

ULM

W 84-79

−5.5

USM

L 70-80

−7.5

ARST

L 82-83

+10.5

W 59-54

−3.5

USM

W 74-67

+4.5

CCU

L 70-72

−0.5

JMU

L 57-82

−19.5

MRSH

W 72-68

+7.5

ODU

W 81-64

+14.5

GASO

W 77-71

+10.5

WMU

W 77-61

+9.5

TROY

W 74-62

+17.5

ULM

W 95-84

−3.5

USA

W 90-82

+11.5

L 54-67

−16.5

APP

W 60-57

+4.5

USM

L 77-81

−5.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BGSU

L 48-83

−15.5

TULN

L 71-79

+3.5

UTSA

W 80-69

+1.5

TXSO

W 77-67

−0.5

ACU

W 63-49

−26.5

W 65-56

−10.5

SEA

L 52-66

−18.5

LEH

L 74-78

+16.5

RICE

L 72-77

+15.5

SOU

W 86-83

+26.5

ARST

L 70-89

+7.5

USA

W 67-65

−4.5

TROY

L 80-100

+34.5

ULM

W 84-79

+12.5

USM

L 70-80

+5.5

ARST

L 82-83

+8.5

W 59-54

−20.5

USM

W 74-67

+0.5

CCU

L 70-72

+1.5

JMU

L 57-82

−4.5

MRSH

W 72-68

−7.5

ODU

W 81-64

+1.5

GASO

W 77-71

−3.5

WMU

W 77-61

−8.5

TROY

W 74-62

−4.5

ULM

W 95-84

+29.5

USA

W 90-82

+34.5

L 54-67

−13.5

APP

W 60-57

−18.5

USM

L 77-81

+17.5

over 16under 14avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Texas St has the better starters

Position by position: McNeese 1, Texas St 3, even 1

McNeeseBetterTexas St

G L. Johnson16.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 98

MCNBig

G M. Drone14 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 56

G C. Cherenfant3.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 38

TXSTBig

G Q. House TR15.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 84

G D. Warren TR1.2 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked

No call

G K. Younger TR15.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76

F J. Colbert5.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 29

TXSTBig

F D. Hall15.7 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 94

F C. Chest TR2.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 71

TXSTSmall

F P. Djobet TR17.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89

McNeeseBetterTexas St

MCN offense153rd of 366 · -4.7

Even

TXST defense112th of 366 · -1.4

MCN defense117th of 366 · -1.6

Even

TXST offense105th of 366 · -1.4

Backcourt+3.2 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt+2.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players

TXSTBig

Frontcourt+7.5 · 2 players

Bench-0.3 · 4 players

Even

Bench-0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMCN betterTXST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

McNeese

Guards

L. Johnson26 minC. Cherenfant16 minD. Warren8 min · TRE. Moore5 min · TRJ. Rembert4 minJ. Dean-Vines3 min · TR

Forwards

J. Colbert20 minC. Chest13 min · TRA. Maluk7 min · TRC. NituNewM. MadisonNewA. MazouNew

Texas St

Guards

M. Drone31 minQ. House31 min · TRK. Younger29 min · TRK. Gumbs28 minD. Pernell22 minC. Steger11 min · TR

Forwards

D. Hall30 minP. Djobet30 min · TRR. Jessamy27 min · TRK. GrandisonNewD. AbisogunNewK. SandersNew

Centers

R. Fields16 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MCN76.6 #131

TXST71.9 #247

Points per possession

MCN1.14 #69

TXST1.06 #230

Pace (possessions)

MCN67.1 #276

TXST68.2 #223

Shooting

Effective FG%

MCN50.7 #202

TXST50.0 #238

3-point %

MCN31.7 #290

TXST32.2 #271

3-point attempt rate

MCN35.2 #269

TXST24.6 #364

Free throw rate

MCN37.4 #114

TXST34.0 #211

Possessions

Turnover rate

MCN14.2 #28

TXST18.7 #309

Offensive rebound rate

MCN35.1 #46

TXST33.9 #68

Assists per game

MCN13.1 #205

TXST12.7 #239

Defense

Points allowed

MCN67.4 #23

TXST72.5 #117

Points allowed per possession

MCN1.00 #27

TXST1.06 #106

Opponent effective FG%

MCN49.3 #76

TXST52.0 #210

Opponent 3-point %

MCN32.7 #102

TXST35.7 #293

Turnovers forced

MCN24.4 #1

TXST18.5 #75

Defensive rebound rate

MCN65.1 #338

TXST71.6 #81

Steals per game

MCN10.3 #1

TXST7.9 #41

Blocks per game

MCN4.4 #42

TXST3.6 #120

MCN		TXST
Scoring
76.6 #131	Points per game	71.9 #247
1.14 #69	Points per possession	1.06 #230
67.1 #276	Pace (possessions)	68.2 #223
Shooting
50.7 #202	Effective FG%	50.0 #238
31.7 #290	3-point %	32.2 #271
35.2 #269	3-point attempt rate	24.6 #364
37.4 #114	Free throw rate	34.0 #211
Possessions
14.2 #28	Turnover rate	18.7 #309
35.1 #46	Offensive rebound rate	33.9 #68
13.1 #205	Assists per game	12.7 #239
Defense
67.4 #23	Points allowed	72.5 #117
1.00 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #106
49.3 #76	Opponent effective FG%	52.0 #210
32.7 #102	Opponent 3-point %	35.7 #293
24.4 #1	Turnovers forced	18.5 #75
65.1 #338	Defensive rebound rate	71.6 #81
10.3 #1	Steals per game	7.9 #41
4.4 #42	Blocks per game	3.6 #120

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

McNeese

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 21-3 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Vanderbilt68–78
Wvs SF Austin76–59
Wvs UT Rio Grande84–80
W@ Nicholls75–65
W@ LSU N Orleans66–63

A week or more of rest.

Texas St

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Southern Miss77–81
Wvs App State60–57
L@ Louisiana54–67
W@ South Alabama90–82
Wvs UL Monroe95–84

A week or more of rest.

McNeese Cowboys at Texas State Bobcats

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

McNeese

Texas St

Texas St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

McNeese

Texas St