UAlbany Great Danes at Syracuse Orange: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 25, 6:00 PM ETJMA Wireless Dome · at Syracuse

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UAlbany and Syracuse
UALB	This season	SYR
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SYR 87–61 · win probability SYR 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SYR has more of the edges

UALB 1, SYR 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SYRBig

UALB offense vs SYR defense

Offense 313th of 366 against a defense 67th, on the model’s ratings

SYRBig

SYR offense vs UALB defense

Offense 60th of 366 against a defense 259th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

UALB has played the 260th-hardest schedule, SYR the 67th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SYRBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UALB 24.9, SYR 35.1. Allowed: UALB 35.7, SYR 32.6

SYRBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UALB 18.5%, SYR 15.9%. Forced: UALB 15.8%, SYR 17.4%

SYRBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UALB 51.4 and allows 53.2; SYR 52.6 and allows 50.3

UALBSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UALB 32.7%, SYR 29.2%. Defensive: UALB 67.6%, SYR 66.4%

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: UALB plays 65.6 a game (324th fastest), SYR 69.1 (173rd). Faster games mean more points

SYRSmall

Three-pointers

UALB hits 32.6% and allows 36.0%; SYR hits 32.9% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 37.6% and 37.1% of their shots

SYRSmall

Home court

SYR at home. This season: SYR 0-0 at home, UALB 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UALB 38%, SYR 19%. Transfers in: UALB 3, SYR 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SYR -25.7	—
Total	—	147.3	—
Projected score	—	UALB 60.8 · SYR 86.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SYR -15.2	—
1H total	68.9	—
1H projected score	UALB 26.9 · SYR 42	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UALB WLWLL	11-18	38%	5-12	—
SYR LLLLL	14-18	44%	8-10	—

Venue/role: UALB away; SYR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UALB UUOUO	14-15	48%	8-21
SYR UOUUO	17-15	53%	15-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UALB	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
SYR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UAlbany

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ PSU	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs ARMY	L59–67LU
Dec 8	@ COR	L75–83LU

Syracuse

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ OU	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs COLG	W74–72LU
Dec 12	vs MERC	W76–62LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UALB 0–1 SYRSYR leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UALB 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 10, 2024-25	UALB 85 @ SYR 102	SYR -12.5	SYR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UAlbany

29 games played

Straight up

8-21

28% wins

Against the spread

11-18

38% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2128%

L L L L L L L L L W L L L W W W L L L L W L W W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1838%

L L L W W L L W L W L L L W W W L L L L W L L W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

U U U U U O O O O U U O O U U O U O O U U O O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MARQ	L 53-80	+24.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 8	@MASS	L 62-83	+9.5	L −11.5	155.5	U 145
Nov 14	@URI	L 61-80	+15.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 21	@SIE	L 63-73	+10.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 136
Nov 28	vsCOLG	L 67-69	+7.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsFOR	L 68-88	+10.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 6	@COLU	L 65-93	+13.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 158
Dec 10	vsYALE	L 82-93	+17.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 175
Dec 13	@FAU	L 79-105	+18.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 184
Dec 17	@STBK	W 71-55	+10.5	W +26.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 21	vsCOR	L 75-83	+6.5	L −1.5	167.5	U 158
Dec 30	@SC	L 67-96	+19.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 163
Jan 3	@UML	L 71-83	+2.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsBRY	W 71-46	-3.5	W +21.5	136.5	U 117
Jan 15	vsBING	W 69-53	-8.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 122
Jan 19	vsUVM	W 75-68	+5.5	W +12.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 22	@ME	L 49-52	-2.5	L −5.5	131.5	U 101
Jan 24	@UNH	L 72-80	+2.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 152
Jan 29	vsNJIT	L 68-77	-5.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 145
Jan 31	vsUMBC	L 65-68	+1.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 133
Feb 5	@BRY	W 65-63	+1.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 128
Feb 7	vsUML	L 79-89	-4.5	L −14.5	143.5	O 168
Feb 14	@BING	W 77-74	-4.5	L −1.5	136.5	O 151
Feb 19	@NJIT	W 81-63	+3.5	W +21.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 21	@UMBC	L 62-66	+7.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 128
Feb 26	vsME	L 59-70	-4.5	L −15.5	130.5	U 129
Feb 28	vsUNH	W 84-61	-3.5	W +19.5	138.5	O 145
Mar 3	@UVM	L 56-69	+9.5	L −3.5	136.5	U 125
Mar 7	@UML	L 76-81	+2.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−2.5

MASS

L 62-83

−11.5

URI

L 61-80

−3.5

SIE

L 63-73

+0.5

COLG

L 67-69

+5.5

FOR

L 68-88

−9.5

COLU

L 65-93

−14.5

YALE

L 82-93

+6.5

FAU

L 79-105

−7.5

STBK

W 71-55

+26.5

COR

L 75-83

−1.5

L 67-96

−9.5

UML

L 71-83

−9.5

BRY

W 71-46

+21.5

BING

W 69-53

+7.5

UVM

W 75-68

+12.5

L 49-52

−5.5

UNH

L 72-80

−5.5

NJIT

L 68-77

−14.5

UMBC

L 65-68

−1.5

BRY

W 65-63

+3.5

UML

L 79-89

−14.5

BING

W 77-74

−1.5

NJIT

W 81-63

+21.5

UMBC

L 62-66

+3.5

L 59-70

−15.5

UNH

W 84-61

+19.5

UVM

L 56-69

−3.5

UML

L 76-81

−2.5

covered 11didn’t cover 18avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−16.5

MASS

L 62-83

−10.5

URI

L 61-80

−9.5

SIE

L 63-73

−4.5

COLG

L 67-69

−5.5

FOR

L 68-88

+12.5

COLU

L 65-93

+13.5

YALE

L 82-93

+29.5

FAU

L 79-105

+36.5

STBK

W 71-55

−20.5

COR

L 75-83

−9.5

L 67-96

+14.5

UML

L 71-83

+3.5

BRY

W 71-46

−19.5

BING

W 69-53

−16.5

UVM

W 75-68

+3.5

L 49-52

−30.5

UNH

L 72-80

+14.5

NJIT

L 68-77

+5.5

UMBC

L 65-68

−8.5

BRY

W 65-63

−5.5

UML

L 79-89

+24.5

BING

W 77-74

+14.5

NJIT

W 81-63

+1.5

UMBC

L 62-66

−16.5

L 59-70

−1.5

UNH

W 84-61

+6.5

UVM

L 56-69

−11.5

UML

L 76-81

+10.5

over 14under 15avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Syracuse

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

W W W W L L L W W L W W W L W W W L L L L W L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W W L W L L W L L L L W L W W W L L L L W W W W W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U U O O U O U U U O O U U O O O O U O O O O U O U O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBING	W 85-47	-21.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsDSU	W 83-43	-26.5	W +13.5	157.5	U 126
Nov 15	vsDREX	W 80-50	-11.5	W +18.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsMONM	W 78-73	-21.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 151
Nov 24	vsHOU	L 74-78	+14.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsKU	L 60-71	+4.5	L −6.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsISU	L 64-95	+10.5	L −20.5	145.5	O 159
Dec 2	vsTENN	W 62-60	+7.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 122
Dec 11	vsJOES	W 71-63	-11.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 134
Dec 13	vsHOF	L 69-70	-9.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 139
Dec 17	vsMERC	W 76-62	-24.5	L −10.5	131.5	O 138
Dec 20	vsNE	W 91-83	-14.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 174
Dec 22	vsSTO	W 77-48	-22.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 125
Dec 31	vsCLEM	L 61-64	+1.5	L −1.5	140.5	U 125
Jan 6	@GT	W 82-72	-2.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 10	@PITT	W 83-72	+1.5	W +12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 13	vsFSU	W 94-86	-4.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 180
Jan 17	@BC	L 73-81	-5.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 154
Jan 21	vsVT	L 74-76	-3.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 150
Jan 24	vsMIA	L 76-85	+1.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 161
Jan 27	@NCSU	L 68-88	+10.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 156
Jan 31	vsND	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 158
Feb 2	@UNC	L 77-87	+11.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 164
Feb 7	@UVA	L 59-72	+13.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 131
Feb 11	vsCAL	W 107-100	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 207
Feb 14	vsSMU	W 79-78	+1.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 157
Feb 16	@DUKE	L 64-101	+20.5	L −16.5	144.5	O 165
Feb 21	vsUNC	L 64-77	-2.5	L −15.5	154.5	U 141
Feb 28	@WAKE	L 83-88	+3.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 171
Mar 3	@LOU	L 62-77	+14.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 139
Mar 7	vsPITT	L 69-71	-5.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 140
Mar 10	vsSMU	L 69-86	+3.5	L −13.5	154.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BING

W 85-47

+16.5

DSU

W 83-43

+13.5

DREX

W 80-50

+18.5

MONM

W 78-73

−16.5

HOU

L 74-78

+10.5

L 60-71

−6.5

ISU

L 64-95

−20.5

TENN

W 62-60

+9.5

JOES

W 71-63

−3.5

HOF

L 69-70

−10.5

MERC

W 76-62

−10.5

W 91-83

−6.5

STO

W 77-48

+6.5

CLEM

L 61-64

−1.5

W 82-72

+7.5

PITT

W 83-72

+12.5

FSU

W 94-86

+3.5

L 73-81

−13.5

L 74-76

−5.5

MIA

L 76-85

−7.5

NCSU

L 68-88

−9.5

W 86-72

+7.5

UNC

L 77-87

+1.5

UVA

L 59-72

+0.5

CAL

W 107-100

+0.5

SMU

W 79-78

+2.5

DUKE

L 64-101

−16.5

UNC

L 64-77

−15.5

WAKE

L 83-88

−1.5

LOU

L 62-77

−0.5

PITT

L 69-71

−7.5

SMU

L 69-86

−13.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BING

W 85-47

−21.5

DSU

W 83-43

−31.5

DREX

W 80-50

−13.5

MONM

W 78-73

+5.5

HOU

L 74-78

+11.5

L 60-71

−13.5

ISU

L 64-95

+13.5

TENN

W 62-60

−25.5

JOES

W 71-63

−12.5

HOF

L 69-70

−0.5

MERC

W 76-62

+6.5

W 91-83

+33.5

STO

W 77-48

−15.5

CLEM

L 61-64

−15.5

W 82-72

+7.5

PITT

W 83-72

+12.5

FSU

W 94-86

+19.5

L 73-81

+12.5

L 74-76

−2.5

MIA

L 76-85

+11.5

NCSU

L 68-88

+4.5

W 86-72

+10.5

UNC

L 77-87

+5.5

UVA

L 59-72

−16.5

CAL

W 107-100

+58.5

SMU

W 79-78

−0.5

DUKE

L 64-101

+20.5

UNC

L 64-77

−13.5

WAKE

L 83-88

+18.5

LOU

L 62-77

−20.5

PITT

L 69-71

−1.5

SMU

L 69-86

+0.5

over 17under 15avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Syracuse has the better starters

Position by position: UAlbany 0, Syracuse 5, even 0

UAlbanyBetterSyracuse

G A. Fall9.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 27

SYRBig

G G. Doty TR18 pts · 6.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 94

G Z. Matulu9.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 48

SYRSmall

G A. Tobiason TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 2 ast Score 82

G P. Santos TR6.9 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51

SYRSmall

G G. Dual TR8.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.1 ast Score 66

G M. Rose2.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 1

SYRBig

F F. Folefac TR11.3 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 73

F B. Michaels TR1.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3

SYRBig

C L. Wilson TR10.4 pts · 8.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 75

UAlbanyBetterSyracuse

UALB offense313th of 366 · -10.0

SYRBig

SYR defense67th of 366 · +0.9

UALB defense259th of 366 · -6.7

SYRBig

SYR offense60th of 366 · +2.7

Backcourt-6.0 · 4 players

SYRBig

Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player

SYRBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-0.2 · 1 player

SYRSmall

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUALB betterSYR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UAlbany

Guards

A. Fall31 minZ. Matulu30 minP. Santos19 min · TRM. Rose15 minP. KountaNewO. EngenNew

Forwards

B. Michaels13 min · TRE. BussingNewP. MiovicNewU. GrahamNew

Centers

K. Webb3 min · TRC. SmithNew

Syracuse

Guards

G. Doty37 min · TRA. Tobiason36 min · TRG. Dual27 min · TRK. Anthony19 minC. Russell2 minN. Lobdell1 min

Forwards

F. Folefac28 min · TRT. Goodrick23 min · TRS. White15 minM. MoranoNew

Centers

L. Wilson29 min · TRI. MartinezNewA. SibyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UALB68.7 #302

SYR75.0 #163

Points per possession

UALB1.05 #259

SYR1.08 #174

Pace (possessions)

UALB65.6 #324

SYR69.1 #173

Shooting

Effective FG%

UALB51.4 #182

SYR52.6 #122

3-point %

UALB32.6 #248

SYR32.9 #239

3-point attempt rate

UALB37.6 #220

SYR37.1 #226

Free throw rate

UALB24.9 #364

SYR35.1 #171

Possessions

Turnover rate

UALB18.5 #299

SYR15.9 #134

Offensive rebound rate

UALB32.7 #99

SYR29.2 #228

Assists per game

UALB12.8 #232

SYR12.8 #225

Defense

Points allowed

UALB74.5 #176

SYR74.3 #163

Points allowed per possession

UALB1.14 #302

SYR1.07 #144

Opponent effective FG%

UALB53.2 #275

SYR50.3 #116

Opponent 3-point %

UALB36.0 #302

SYR34.1 #186

Turnovers forced

UALB15.8 #228

SYR17.4 #125

Defensive rebound rate

UALB67.6 #277

SYR66.4 #310

Steals per game

UALB6.7 #153

SYR6.2 #214

Blocks per game

UALB3.9 #82

SYR5.9 #4

UALB		SYR
Scoring
68.7 #302	Points per game	75.0 #163
1.05 #259	Points per possession	1.08 #174
65.6 #324	Pace (possessions)	69.1 #173
Shooting
51.4 #182	Effective FG%	52.6 #122
32.6 #248	3-point %	32.9 #239
37.6 #220	3-point attempt rate	37.1 #226
24.9 #364	Free throw rate	35.1 #171
Possessions
18.5 #299	Turnover rate	15.9 #134
32.7 #99	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #228
12.8 #232	Assists per game	12.8 #225
Defense
74.5 #176	Points allowed	74.3 #163
1.14 #302	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #144
53.2 #275	Opponent effective FG%	50.3 #116
36.0 #302	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #186
15.8 #228	Turnovers forced	17.4 #125
67.6 #277	Defensive rebound rate	66.4 #310
6.7 #153	Steals per game	6.2 #214
3.9 #82	Blocks per game	5.9 #4

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UAlbany

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UMass Lowell76–81
L@ Vermont56–69
Wvs New Hampshire84–61
Lvs Maine59–70
L@ UMBC62–66

A week or more of rest.

Syracuse

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SMU69–86
Lvs Pitt69–71
L@ Louisville62–77
L@ Wake Forest83–88
Lvs North Carolina64–77

A week or more of rest.

UAlbany Great Danes at Syracuse Orange

What could decide it: SYR has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UAlbany

Syracuse

Syracuse has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UAlbany

Syracuse