Western Illinois Leathernecks at Canisius Golden Griffins: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ETKoessler Athletic Center · at Canisius

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: W Illinois and Canisius
WIU	This season	CAN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CAN 74–66 · win probability CAN 76%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CAN has more of the edges

WIU 1, CAN 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CANBig

Three-pointers

WIU hits 30.9% and allows 35.6%; CAN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 33.3% and 39.5% of their shots

CANBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WIU 27.0%, CAN 29.3%. Defensive: WIU 65.2%, CAN 70.2%

WIUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WIU 37.7, CAN 31.4. Allowed: WIU 34.8, CAN 35.2

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: WIU plays 67.6 a game (246th fastest), CAN 64.6 (353rd). Faster games mean more points

CANSmall

Home court

CAN at home. This season: CAN 0-0 at home, WIU 0-0 away

CANSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WIU 44.5 and allows 54.2; CAN 46.3 and allows 52.2

CANSmall

WIU offense vs CAN defense

Offense 365th of 366 against a defense 321st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WIU 21%, CAN 1%. Transfers in: WIU 0, CAN 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

WIU has played the 361st-hardest schedule, CAN the 337th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WIU 17.5%, CAN 19.6%. Forced: WIU 14.9%, CAN 16.0%

Even

CAN offense vs WIU defense

Offense 358th of 366 against a defense 362nd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CAN -8.1	—
Total	—	139.3	—
Projected score	—	WIU 65.6 · CAN 73.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CAN -4.7	—
1H total	65.2	—
1H projected score	WIU 30.3 · CAN 35	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIU LLLLL	11-17	39%	8-8	—
CAN LWLWW	15-15	50%	7-7	—

Venue/role: WIU away; CAN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIU UOUUO	13-15	46%	2-26
CAN UOUUU	9-21	30%	9-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIU	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
CAN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

W Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ CCU	L64–84LO
Nov 30	@ HCU	No recent meeting
Dec 3	@ IU	No recent meeting

Canisius

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ UIC	No recent meeting
Dec 4	vs RID	W72–66WO
Dec 6	vs MSM	L47–68LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

W Illinois

28 games played

Straight up

2-26

7% wins

Against the spread

11-17

39% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-15

46% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-267%

L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1739%

W W L W L L L W L W W L L L W W W L W L L L W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1546%

O U U U O O O U O U U U O U U O U O O U O U O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@RAD	L 75-80	+16.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 155
Nov 7	@IOWA	L 58-77	+30.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 135
Nov 11	@CSUB	L 58-74	+7.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 14	@CBU	L 59-69	+15.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 128
Nov 21	vsCCU	L 64-84	+3.5	L −16.5	138.5	O 148
Nov 23	vsUND	L 69-78	+2.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 2	@DRKE	L 57-108	+17.5	L −33.5	138.5	O 165
Dec 13	@UND	W 69-66	+7.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 18	@LIN	L 76-92	+12.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 168
Dec 22	vsSIUE	L 61-66	+6.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 127
Jan 1	@UTM	L 60-67	+13.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 127
Jan 3	@SEMO	L 50-73	+13.5	L −9.5	147.5	U 123
Jan 8	vsTNST	L 68-90	+6.5	L −15.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 10	vsTNTC	L 54-59	+3.5	L −1.5	143.5	U 113
Jan 13	@EIU	L 55-57	+6.5	W +4.5	132.5	U 112
Jan 17	@LR	L 79-86	+10.5	W +3.5	135.5	O 165
Jan 22	@MORE	L 66-71	+8.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 137
Jan 23	@USI	L 64-96	+6.5	L −25.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 29	vsSEMO	L 74-78	+10.5	W +6.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 31	vsUTM	L 44-84	+10.5	L −29.5	137.5	U 128
Feb 5	@TNTC	L 72-97	+9.5	L −15.5	143.5	O 169
Feb 7	@TNST	L 56-83	+15.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 139
Feb 10	vsEIU	W 79-70	+4.5	W +13.5	133.5	O 149
Feb 12	vsLR	L 58-77	+7.5	L −11.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 19	vsUSI	L 70-77	+3.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 21	vsMORE	L 59-81	+8.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 140
Feb 26	@SIUE	L 47-67	+13.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 114
Feb 28	vsLIN	L 69-91	+11.5	L −10.5	149.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RAD

L 75-80

+11.5

IOWA

L 58-77

+11.5

CSUB

L 58-74

−8.5

CBU

L 59-69

+5.5

CCU

L 64-84

−16.5

UND

L 69-78

−6.5

DRKE

L 57-108

−33.5

UND

W 69-66

+10.5

LIN

L 76-92

−3.5

SIUE

L 61-66

+1.5

UTM

L 60-67

+6.5

SEMO

L 50-73

−9.5

TNST

L 68-90

−15.5

TNTC

L 54-59

−1.5

EIU

L 55-57

+4.5

L 79-86

+3.5

L 66-71

+3.5

USI

L 64-96

−25.5

SEMO

L 74-78

+6.5

UTM

L 44-84

−29.5

TNTC

L 72-97

−15.5

TNST

L 56-83

−11.5

EIU

W 79-70

+13.5

L 58-77

−11.5

USI

L 70-77

−3.5

L 59-81

−13.5

SIUE

L 47-67

−6.5

LIN

L 69-91

−10.5

covered 11didn’t cover 17avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RAD

L 75-80

+3.5

IOWA

L 58-77

−10.5

CSUB

L 58-74

−9.5

CBU

L 59-69

−12.5

CCU

L 64-84

+9.5

UND

L 69-78

+0.5

DRKE

L 57-108

+26.5

UND

W 69-66

−10.5

LIN

L 76-92

+21.5

SIUE

L 61-66

−11.5

UTM

L 60-67

−13.5

SEMO

L 50-73

−24.5

TNST

L 68-90

+12.5

TNTC

L 54-59

−30.5

EIU

L 55-57

−20.5

L 79-86

+29.5

L 66-71

−1.5

USI

L 64-96

+23.5

SEMO

L 74-78

+9.5

UTM

L 44-84

−9.5

TNTC

L 72-97

+25.5

TNST

L 56-83

−12.5

EIU

W 79-70

+15.5

L 58-77

−6.5

USI

L 70-77

+6.5

L 59-81

−3.5

SIUE

L 47-67

−21.5

LIN

L 69-91

+10.5

over 13under 15avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Canisius

30 games played

Straight up

9-21

30% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-21

30% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2130%

L L W L W W L L L W L L W W W L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1550%

L W W L L W L L L W W L W W W L L L W W W L L W L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-2130%

U O U U U O U U U U U O O O U U U O U U O O U U U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DAY	L 48-88	+25.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 136
Nov 8	@SBU	L 70-89	+21.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsMERC	W 58-55	+1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 113
Nov 17	@HPU	L 50-93	+23.5	L −19.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 21	vsUMES	W 60-57	-3.5	L −0.5	128.5	U 117
Nov 23	vsBING	W 75-66	-2.5	W +6.5	129.5	O 141
Nov 29	vsBUF	L 53-71	+9.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 124
Dec 5	@SPU	L 57-69	+9.5	L −2.5	129.5	U 126
Dec 7	@SIE	L 52-74	+17.5	L −4.5	131.5	U 126
Dec 13	@ME	W 70-43	+6.5	W +33.5	127.5	U 113
Dec 16	@URI	L 45-62	+21.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 107
Dec 22	@DUQ	L 59-103	+19.5	L −24.5	143.5	O 162
Jan 2	vsFAIR	W 85-81	+6.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 166
Jan 4	vsSHU	W 82-78	+5.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 160
Jan 9	@MAN	W 70-64	+7.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 134
Jan 11	@IONA	L 48-74	+11.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 122
Jan 14	vsNIA	L 54-59	-2.5	L −7.5	126.5	U 113
Jan 17	vsMSM	L 68-78	+3.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 146
Jan 22	@SHU	L 66-69	+10.5	W +7.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 24	@FAIR	L 55-61	+10.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 116
Jan 30	vsMRST	L 86-88	+9.5	W +7.5	129.5	O 174
Feb 1	vsSIE	L 63-78	+8.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 3	@NIA	L 56-65	+2.5	L −6.5	129.5	U 121
Feb 5	@QUIN	L 60-75	+15.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 13	vsIONA	L 63-69	+4.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 132
Feb 15	vsMAN	L 65-69	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 134
Feb 20	@RID	W 72-66	+1.5	W +7.5	131.5	O 138
Feb 22	@MSM	L 47-68	+7.5	L −13.5	137.5	U 115
Feb 27	vsMRMK	W 67-62	+8.5	W +13.5	129.5	U 129
Mar 1	vsQUIN	L 63-67	+7.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAY

L 48-88

−14.5

SBU

L 70-89

+2.5

MERC

W 58-55

+4.5

HPU

L 50-93

−19.5

UMES

W 60-57

−0.5

BING

W 75-66

+6.5

BUF

L 53-71

−8.5

SPU

L 57-69

−2.5

SIE

L 52-74

−4.5

W 70-43

+33.5

URI

L 45-62

+4.5

DUQ

L 59-103

−24.5

FAIR

W 85-81

+10.5

SHU

W 82-78

+9.5

MAN

W 70-64

+13.5

IONA

L 48-74

−14.5

NIA

L 54-59

−7.5

MSM

L 68-78

−6.5

SHU

L 66-69

+7.5

FAIR

L 55-61

+4.5

MRST

L 86-88

+7.5

SIE

L 63-78

−6.5

NIA

L 56-65

−6.5

QUIN

L 60-75

+0.5

IONA

L 63-69

−1.5

MAN

L 65-69

−2.5

RID

W 72-66

+7.5

MSM

L 47-68

−13.5

MRMK

W 67-62

+13.5

QUIN

L 63-67

+3.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAY

L 48-88

−6.5

SBU

L 70-89

+22.5

MERC

W 58-55

−22.5

HPU

L 50-93

−9.5

UMES

W 60-57

−11.5

BING

W 75-66

+11.5

BUF

L 53-71

−15.5

SPU

L 57-69

−3.5

SIE

L 52-74

−5.5

W 70-43

−14.5

URI

L 45-62

−31.5

DUQ

L 59-103

+18.5

FAIR

W 85-81

+25.5

SHU

W 82-78

+18.5

MAN

W 70-64

−11.5

IONA

L 48-74

−19.5

NIA

L 54-59

−13.5

MSM

L 68-78

+10.5

SHU

L 66-69

−10.5

FAIR

L 55-61

−25.5

MRST

L 86-88

+44.5

SIE

L 63-78

+5.5

NIA

L 56-65

−8.5

QUIN

L 60-75

−6.5

IONA

L 63-69

−5.5

MAN

L 65-69

−8.5

RID

W 72-66

+6.5

MSM

L 47-68

−22.5

MRMK

W 67-62

−0.5

QUIN

L 63-67

−8.5

over 9under 21avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: W Illinois 0, Canisius 0, even 5

W IllinoisBetterCanisius

G M. Kvamme5 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 9

Even

G V. Sigona TR7.5 pts · 1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 22

F D. Stephens5.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13

Even

G M. Wilson TR4.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 18

F J. Riley NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G D. Winters TR1.6 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

F I. Davis NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F P. Ryan TR6.8 pts · 4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 7

F D. Traylor NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F C. Efinda TR4.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

W IllinoisBetterCanisius

WIU offense365th of 366 · -15.6

Even

CAN defense321st of 366 · -8.3

WIU defense362nd of 366 · -11.6

Even

CAN offense358th of 366 · -14.0

Backcourt-3.1 · 1 player

Even

Backcourt-3.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.7 · 4 players

WIUSmall

Frontcourt-4.4 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.4 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestWIU betterCAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

W Illinois

Guards

M. Kvamme26 minD. FlowersNewH. VaughnNewA. KonateNewJ. CainNewT. MooreNew

Forwards

D. Stephens17 minJ. RileyNewI. DavisNewD. TraylorNewM. BiembongoNewS. HigginsNew

Canisius

Guards

V. Sigona20 min · TRM. Wilson13 min · TRD. Winters6 min · TRT. Augustine2 minC. FrancisNewW. FowlerNew

Forwards

P. Ryan23 min · TRC. Efinda15 min · TRN. Deer3 min · TRN. FoutsNewW. TaylorNewA. RiakNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WIU63.2 #357

CAN62.2 #361

Points per possession

WIU0.94 #359

CAN0.96 #349

Pace (possessions)

WIU67.6 #246

CAN64.6 #353

Shooting

Effective FG%

WIU44.5 #361

CAN46.3 #348

3-point %

WIU30.9 #322

CAN33.3 #213

3-point attempt rate

WIU33.3 #311

CAN39.5 #182

Free throw rate

WIU37.7 #108

CAN31.4 #271

Possessions

Turnover rate

WIU17.5 #239

CAN19.6 #341

Offensive rebound rate

WIU27.0 #293

CAN29.3 #226

Assists per game

WIU8.1 #365

CAN11.9 #293

Defense

Points allowed

WIU78.5 #281

CAN71.4 #87

Points allowed per possession

WIU1.16 #334

CAN1.10 #228

Opponent effective FG%

WIU54.2 #303

CAN52.2 #225

Opponent 3-point %

WIU35.6 #288

CAN33.0 #124

Turnovers forced

WIU14.9 #300

CAN16.0 #222

Defensive rebound rate

WIU65.2 #334

CAN70.2 #151

Steals per game

WIU5.1 #331

CAN4.8 #342

Blocks per game

WIU2.0 #346

CAN2.6 #292

WIU		CAN
Scoring
63.2 #357	Points per game	62.2 #361
0.94 #359	Points per possession	0.96 #349
67.6 #246	Pace (possessions)	64.6 #353
Shooting
44.5 #361	Effective FG%	46.3 #348
30.9 #322	3-point %	33.3 #213
33.3 #311	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #182
37.7 #108	Free throw rate	31.4 #271
Possessions
17.5 #239	Turnover rate	19.6 #341
27.0 #293	Offensive rebound rate	29.3 #226
8.1 #365	Assists per game	11.9 #293
Defense
78.5 #281	Points allowed	71.4 #87
1.16 #334	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #228
54.2 #303	Opponent effective FG%	52.2 #225
35.6 #288	Opponent 3-point %	33.0 #124
14.9 #300	Turnovers forced	16.0 #222
65.2 #334	Defensive rebound rate	70.2 #151
5.1 #331	Steals per game	4.8 #342
2.0 #346	Blocks per game	2.6 #292

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

W Illinois

2-26 in 2025-26 overall · 1-19 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Lindenwood Lions69–91
L@ SIUE47–67
Lvs Morehead St59–81
Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles70–77
Lvs Little Rock58–77

A week or more of rest.

Canisius

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Quinnipiac63–67
Wvs Merrimack67–62
L@ Mount St Marys47–68
W@ Rider72–66
Lvs Manhattan65–69

A week or more of rest.

Western Illinois Leathernecks at Canisius Golden Griffins

What could decide it: CAN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

W Illinois

Canisius

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

W Illinois

Canisius