Dayton Flyers vs Northwestern Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ETTD Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Dayton and Northwestern
DAY	This season	NU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NU 75–71 · win probability NU 66%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAY has more of the edges

DAY 2, NU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

DAYSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DAY 26.9%, NU 28.1%. Defensive: DAY 71.2%, NU 65.3%

DAYSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DAY 46.1, NU 33.9. Allowed: DAY 35.5, NU 34.8

NUSmall

DAY offense vs NU defense

Offense 109th of 366 against a defense 42nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: DAY plays 68.3 a game (213th fastest), NU 65.5 (328th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

DAY has played the 90th-hardest schedule, NU the 36th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DAY 16.9%, NU 13.1%. Forced: DAY 21.0%, NU 17.5%

Even

Three-pointers

DAY hits 33.9% and allows 35.4%; NU hits 33.0% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 41.4% and 34.0% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DAY 31%, NU 24%. Transfers in: DAY 4, NU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

NU offense vs DAY defense

Offense 67th of 366 against a defense 57th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: DAY 51.6 and allows 51.0; NU 51.7 and allows 51.0

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NU -4.7	—
Total	—	145.6	—
Projected score	—	DAY 70.5 · NU 75.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NU -2.6	—
1H total	68.1	—
1H projected score	DAY 32.7 · NU 35.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
DAY WLWWL	17-20	46%	3-3	—
NU WWWWW	18-16	53%	4-2	—

Venue/role: DAY neutral site; NU neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAY UUOOU	13-24	35%	25-12
NU UUUUO	15-19	44%	15-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAY	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
NU	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Dayton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs MEM	No recent meeting
Dec 2	vs L-MD	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ FSU	W97–69WO

Northwestern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs NE	W85–60WO
Dec 1	vs WIS	L73–85LO
Dec 5	vs BYU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DAY 1–1 NUSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · DAY 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 9, 2024-25	NU 66 @ DAY 71	DAY -4.5	DAY W
Nov 10, 2023-24	DAY 66 @ NU 71	NU -5.5	DAY W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Dayton

37 games played

Straight up

25-12

68% wins

Against the spread

17-20

46% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-24

35% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-1268%

W W L W W W W L W L W W L W W W W W L L L L W L W W W W W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2046%

W L L L W L W W W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L L W W W W W L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-2435%

U U U O U U O O O O U O U U U U U U U O O O U O U O U U U U U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCAN	W 88-48	-25.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 136
Nov 8	vsUMBC	W 77-71	-25.5	L −19.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 11	@CIN	L 62-74	+5.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 15	vsBCU	W 91-82	-21.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 173
Nov 19	@MARQ	W 77-71	+6.5	W +12.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 22	vsNCCU	W 74-55	-29.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 129
Nov 27	vsGTWN	W 84-79	-1.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 163
Nov 28	vsBYU	L 79-83	+9.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 2	vsETSU	W 88-71	-11.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 6	vsUVA	L 73-86	+5.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 13	vsUNF	W 84-61	-30.5	L −7.5	159.5	U 145
Dec 16	vsFSU	W 97-69	-6.5	W +21.5	162.5	O 166
Dec 20	vsLIB	L 61-64	-9.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 125
Dec 31	vsFOR	W 63-56	-16.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 119
Jan 3	@LUC	W 70-68	-7.5	L −5.5	140.5	U 138
Jan 6	vsGW	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 13	@DUQ	W 71-65	-2.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 136
Jan 16	vsLUC	W 78-51	-16.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 129
Jan 21	@LAS	L 64-67	-9.5	L −12.5	137.5	U 131
Jan 24	@JOES	L 74-81	-6.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 155
Jan 27	vsURI	L 76-81	-9.5	L −14.5	138.5	O 157
Jan 30	@SLU	L 71-102	+9.5	L −21.5	151.5	O 173
Feb 3	vsSBU	W 72-70	-7.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 6	@VCU	L 73-99	+8.5	L −17.5	147.5	O 172
Feb 15	vsDAV	W 70-59	-5.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 129
Feb 18	@GMU	W 82-67	+2.5	W +17.5	137.5	O 149
Feb 21	vsDUQ	W 78-66	-6.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 144
Feb 24	vsSLU	W 77-62	+3.5	W +18.5	157.5	U 139
Feb 27	@GW	W 68-66	+2.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 134
Mar 3	@RICH	W 65-60	-5.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 125
Mar 6	vsVCU	L 62-68	-1.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 130
Mar 13	vsSBU	W 68-63	-5.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 14	vsSLU	W 70-69	+4.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 139
Mar 15	vsVCU	L 62-70	+3.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 132
Mar 18	@BRAD	W 80-66	-2.5	W +11.5	141.5	O 146
Mar 21	@UNCW	W 80-61	-3.5	W +15.5	138.5	O 141
Mar 25	vsILST	L 55-61	-7.5	L −13.5	140.5	U 116

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

+14.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−19.5

CIN

L 62-74

−6.5

BCU

W 91-82

−12.5

MARQ

W 77-71

+12.5

NCCU

W 74-55

−10.5

GTWN

W 84-79

+3.5

BYU

L 79-83

+5.5

ETSU

W 88-71

+5.5

UVA

L 73-86

−7.5

UNF

W 84-61

−7.5

FSU

W 97-69

+21.5

LIB

L 61-64

−12.5

FOR

W 63-56

−9.5

LUC

W 70-68

−5.5

W 79-72

+4.5

DUQ

W 71-65

+3.5

LUC

W 78-51

+10.5

LAS

L 64-67

−12.5

JOES

L 74-81

−13.5

URI

L 76-81

−14.5

SLU

L 71-102

−21.5

SBU

W 72-70

−5.5

VCU

L 73-99

−17.5

DAV

W 70-59

+5.5

GMU

W 82-67

+17.5

DUQ

W 78-66

+5.5

SLU

W 77-62

+18.5

W 68-66

+4.5

RICH

W 65-60

−0.5

VCU

L 62-68

−7.5

SBU

W 68-63

−0.5

SLU

W 70-69

+5.5

VCU

L 62-70

−4.5

BRAD

W 80-66

+11.5

UNCW

W 80-61

+15.5

ILST

L 55-61

−13.5

covered 17didn’t cover 20avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

−6.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−6.5

CIN

L 62-74

−11.5

BCU

W 91-82

+24.5

MARQ

W 77-71

−3.5

NCCU

W 74-55

−17.5

GTWN

W 84-79

+17.5

BYU

L 79-83

+11.5

ETSU

W 88-71

+18.5

UVA

L 73-86

+11.5

UNF

W 84-61

−14.5

FSU

W 97-69

+3.5

LIB

L 61-64

−17.5

FOR

W 63-56

−20.5

LUC

W 70-68

−2.5

W 79-72

−3.5

DUQ

W 71-65

−16.5

LUC

W 78-51

−12.5

LAS

L 64-67

−6.5

JOES

L 74-81

+15.5

URI

L 76-81

+18.5

SLU

L 71-102

+21.5

SBU

W 72-70

−2.5

VCU

L 73-99

+24.5

DAV

W 70-59

−11.5

GMU

W 82-67

+11.5

DUQ

W 78-66

−4.5

SLU

W 77-62

−18.5

W 68-66

−18.5

RICH

W 65-60

−19.5

VCU

L 62-68

−16.5

SBU

W 68-63

−10.5

SLU

W 70-69

−6.5

VCU

L 62-70

−7.5

BRAD

W 80-66

+4.5

UNCW

W 80-61

+2.5

ILST

L 55-61

−24.5

over 13under 24avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Northwestern

34 games played

Straight up

15-19

44% wins

Against the spread

18-16

53% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-19

44% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1944%

W W W W L W L L L W W L W L L L L L W L W L L L L L W W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1653%

L W W L L L L L L W W W W L W L L L W W W L L W W L L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1944%

U U O O O O O O O U O U U O U O U U U U O U U O O U O U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMERC	W 70-47	-26.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 7	vsBU	W 76-52	-17.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 10	vsCLE	W 110-63	-23.5	W +23.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 14	@DEP	W 81-79	-5.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsUVA	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 161
Nov 23	vsSC	W 79-77	-4.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 27	vsOKST	L 81-86	-2.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 167
Dec 3	@WIS	L 73-85	+10.5	L −1.5	155.5	O 158
Dec 6	vsOSU	L 82-86	+1.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 168
Dec 13	vsJKST	W 93-53	-30.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 16	vsVAL	W 86-70	-14.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsBTLR	L 58-61	+3.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 119
Dec 30	vsHOW	W 80-60	-19.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 140
Jan 3	vsMINN	L 78-84	-4.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 162
Jan 8	@MSU	L 66-76	+13.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 11	@RUTG	L 75-77	-4.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 152
Jan 14	vsILL	L 68-79	+9.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 17	vsNEB	L 58-77	+4.5	L −14.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 21	@USC	W 74-68	+6.5	W +12.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 24	@UCLA	L 64-71	+7.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 135
Jan 29	vsPSU	W 94-73	-7.5	W +13.5	148.5	O 167
Jan 31	vsWASH	L 62-76	-1.5	L −15.5	146.5	U 138
Feb 4	@ILL	L 44-84	+16.5	L −23.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 8	@IOWA	L 70-76	+10.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 146
Feb 11	vsMICH	L 75-87	+15.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 162
Feb 14	@NEB	L 49-68	+13.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 117
Feb 18	vsMD	W 78-74	-7.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 24	@IU	W 72-68	+9.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 140
Feb 28	vsORE	W 63-62	-3.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 125
Mar 4	vsPUR	L 66-70	+12.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 136
Mar 7	@MINN	L 66-67	+4.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 133
Mar 10	vsPSU	W 76-66	-4.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 142
Mar 11	vsIU	W 74-61	+6.5	W +19.5	142.5	U 135
Mar 12	vsPUR	L 68-81	+13.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−3.5

W 76-52

+6.5

CLE

W 110-63

+23.5

DEP

W 81-79

−3.5

UVA

L 78-83

−0.5

W 79-77

−2.5

OKST

L 81-86

−7.5

WIS

L 73-85

−1.5

OSU

L 82-86

−2.5

JKST

W 93-53

+9.5

VAL

W 86-70

+1.5

BTLR

L 58-61

+0.5

HOW

W 80-60

+0.5

MINN

L 78-84

−10.5

MSU

L 66-76

+3.5

RUTG

L 75-77

−6.5

ILL

L 68-79

−1.5

NEB

L 58-77

−14.5

USC

W 74-68

+12.5

UCLA

L 64-71

+0.5

PSU

W 94-73

+13.5

WASH

L 62-76

−15.5

ILL

L 44-84

−23.5

IOWA

L 70-76

+4.5

MICH

L 75-87

+3.5

NEB

L 49-68

−5.5

W 78-74

−3.5

W 72-68

+13.5

ORE

W 63-62

−2.5

PUR

L 66-70

+8.5

MINN

L 66-67

+3.5

PSU

W 76-66

+5.5

W 74-61

+19.5

PUR

L 68-81

+0.5

covered 18didn’t cover 16avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−23.5

W 76-52

−8.5

CLE

W 110-63

+21.5

DEP

W 81-79

+14.5

UVA

L 78-83

+11.5

W 79-77

+9.5

OKST

L 81-86

+7.5

WIS

L 73-85

+2.5

OSU

L 82-86

+12.5

JKST

W 93-53

−0.5

VAL

W 86-70

+10.5

BTLR

L 58-61

−35.5

HOW

W 80-60

−8.5

MINN

L 78-84

+23.5

MSU

L 66-76

−1.5

RUTG

L 75-77

+7.5

ILL

L 68-79

−4.5

NEB

L 58-77

−14.5

USC

W 74-68

−7.5

UCLA

L 64-71

−8.5

PSU

W 94-73

+18.5

WASH

L 62-76

−8.5

ILL

L 44-84

−21.5

IOWA

L 70-76

+6.5

MICH

L 75-87

+8.5

NEB

L 49-68

−29.5

W 78-74

+9.5

W 72-68

−5.5

ORE

W 63-62

−16.5

PUR

L 66-70

−9.5

MINN

L 66-67

−0.5

PSU

W 76-66

−1.5

W 74-61

−7.5

PUR

L 68-81

+9.5

over 15under 19avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Dayton 1, Northwestern 1, even 3

DaytonBetterNorthwestern

G Z. Lowery TR8.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 63

No call

G L. Pratt TR17 pts · 1.7 reb · 3.3 ast Not ranked

G L. Joseph TR7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 78

NUSmall

F J. Karasinski TR21.7 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 97

F G. Randall TR11.5 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 65

DAYSmall

F C. Smith TR11.9 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48

F A. L'Etang11.9 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89

Even

F L. McEldon TR11.7 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82

F J. Simon5.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 63

Even

F O. Federiko TR8.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61

DaytonBetterNorthwestern

DAY offense109th of 366 · -1.7

NUSmall

NU defense42nd of 366 · +2.7

DAY defense57th of 366 · +1.4

Even

NU offense67th of 366 · +1.8

Backcourt+0.8 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt+0.9 · 1 player

Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players

NUBig

Frontcourt+7.1 · 4 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

DAYSmall

Bench-2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDAY betterNU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Dayton

Guards

Z. Lowery23 min · TRL. Joseph18 min · TRT. Perry17 min · TRE. Dickey2 minM. Grant1 minW. Maxwell1 min

Forwards

G. Randall32 min · TRA. L'Etang26 minJ. Simon18 minM. Thomas9 minD. Friery6 minJ. HaynesNew

Northwestern

Guards

L. Pratt33 min · TRA. Ciaravino22 minJ. West22 minA. Kostic12 min · TRD. Williams9 min · TRP. Gill4 min

Forwards

J. Karasinski30 min · TRC. Smith30 min · TRL. McEldon26 min · TRO. Federiko23 min · TRR. Soulis20 min · TRE. EschmeyerNew

Centers

S. GhaiNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DAY74.1 #193

NU73.2 #220

Points per possession

DAY1.09 #167

NU1.12 #100

Pace (possessions)

DAY68.3 #213

NU65.5 #328

Shooting

Effective FG%

DAY51.6 #168

NU51.7 #159

3-point %

DAY33.9 #182

NU33.0 #232

3-point attempt rate

DAY41.4 #142

NU34.0 #296

Free throw rate

DAY46.1 #2

NU33.9 #213

Possessions

Turnover rate

DAY16.9 #198

NU13.1 #6

Offensive rebound rate

DAY26.9 #298

NU28.1 #260

Assists per game

DAY14.2 #134

NU17.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

DAY69.3 #50

NU72.0 #106

Points allowed per possession

DAY1.01 #37

NU1.09 #210

Opponent effective FG%

DAY51.0 #164

NU51.0 #157

Opponent 3-point %

DAY35.4 #270

NU33.4 #145

Turnovers forced

DAY21.0 #11

NU17.5 #120

Defensive rebound rate

DAY71.2 #94

NU65.3 #332

Steals per game

DAY8.2 #31

NU5.8 #256

Blocks per game

DAY3.9 #90

NU3.6 #131

DAY		NU
Scoring
74.1 #193	Points per game	73.2 #220
1.09 #167	Points per possession	1.12 #100
68.3 #213	Pace (possessions)	65.5 #328
Shooting
51.6 #168	Effective FG%	51.7 #159
33.9 #182	3-point %	33.0 #232
41.4 #142	3-point attempt rate	34.0 #296
46.1 #2	Free throw rate	33.9 #213
Possessions
16.9 #198	Turnover rate	13.1 #6
26.9 #298	Offensive rebound rate	28.1 #260
14.2 #134	Assists per game	17.2 #18
Defense
69.3 #50	Points allowed	72.0 #106
1.01 #37	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #210
51.0 #164	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #157
35.4 #270	Opponent 3-point %	33.4 #145
21.0 #11	Turnovers forced	17.5 #120
71.2 #94	Defensive rebound rate	65.3 #332
8.2 #31	Steals per game	5.8 #256
3.9 #90	Blocks per game	3.6 #131

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Dayton

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois St55–61
W@ UNC Wilmington80–61
W@ Bradley80–66
Lvs VCU62–70
Wvs Saint Louis70–69

A week or more of rest.

Northwestern

15-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Purdue68–81
Wvs Indiana74–61
Wvs Penn State76–66
L@ Minnesota66–67
Lvs Purdue66–70

A week or more of rest.

Dayton Flyers vs Northwestern Wildcats

What could decide it: DAY has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Dayton

Northwestern

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Dayton

Northwestern