1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 20
  3. OKST vs MINN
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 20

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Minnesota Golden Gophers

TD Arena · Neutral site
#45OKSTOklahoma St
vs
#70MINNMinnesota
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
OKSTThis seasonMINN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKST 77–73 · win probability OKST 63%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MINN has more of the edges

OKST 1, MINN 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: OKST plays 74.8 a game (6th fastest), MINN 63.6 (362nd). Faster games mean more points
MINNSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: OKST 52.0 and allows 53.1; MINN 53.9 and allows 51.9
OKSTSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OKST 30.8%, MINN 26.8%. Defensive: OKST 69.7%, MINN 70.5%
MINNSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OKST 41%, MINN 66%. Transfers in: OKST 6, MINN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
OKST hits 33.9% and allows 36.0%; MINN hits 34.1% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 35.5% and 47.1% of their shots
Even
MINN offense vs OKST defense
Offense 120th of 366 against a defense 99th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
OKST has played the 60th-hardest schedule, MINN the 71st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OKST 15.7%, MINN 16.6%. Forced: OKST 15.7%, MINN 16.8%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: OKST 39.4, MINN 35.8. Allowed: OKST 31.4, MINN 26.9
Even
OKST offense vs MINN defense
Offense 23rd of 366 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—OKST -3.8—
Total—149.8—
Projected score—OKST 76.8 · MINN 73

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadOKST -2.4—
1H total70.0—
1H projected scoreOKST 36.2 · MINN 33.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Oklahoma St has the better starters

Position by position: Oklahoma St 2, Minnesota 0, even 3
Oklahoma StBetterMinnesota
G K. Clary10.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.6 ast Score 78
Even
G I. Asuma10.9 pts · 4 reb · 3.7 ast Score 64
G K. Natt TR11.3 pts · 8.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 94
OKSTBig
G M. Palmer TR4.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 43
G J. Walker TR11.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 55
Even
F B. Durkin10.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
F J. Burks TR13.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 90
Even
F J. Crocker-Johnson13.4 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 81
F P. Fallah14.7 pts · 6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 97
OKSTBig
F G. Grove4 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 59
Oklahoma StBetterMinnesota
OKST offense23rd of 366 · +7.5
Even
MINN defense22nd of 366 · +5.2
OKST defense99th of 366 · -0.7
Even
MINN offense120th of 366 · -2.8
Backcourt+4.0 · 3 players
OKSTBig
Backcourt-0.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt+7.7 · 2 players
OKSTBig
Frontcourt+2.9 · 3 players
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
OKSTBig
Bench-2.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestOKST betterMINN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Oklahoma St
Guards
K. Clary28 minK. Natt27 min · TRJ. Walker26 min · TRL. Bogavac24 min · TRR. Crotty10 minJ. MontonatiNew
Forwards
J. Burks28 min · TRP. Fallah26 minA. Grbovic20 min · TRB. Ahmed13 minM. Ragland6 minL. AllmondNew
Centers
J. Halaifonua20 min · TR
Minnesota
Guards
I. Asuma34 minM. Palmer18 min · TRK. Evans18 min · TRK. Shinholster13 minN. Groves6 min · TRW. Grady6 min · TR
Forwards
B. Durkin33 minJ. Crocker-Johnson32 minG. Grove21 minN. AndersonNew
Centers
M. Kordel4 min · TRC. MpoyiNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
OKSTMINN
Scoring
83.9 #21Points per game69.4 #294
1.12 #110Points per possession1.10 #147
74.8 #6Pace (possessions)63.6 #362
Shooting
52.0 #144Effective FG%53.9 #69
33.9 #1763-point %34.1 #164
35.5 #2603-point attempt rate47.1 #31
39.4 #70Free throw rate35.8 #159
Possessions
15.7 #117Turnover rate16.6 #170
30.8 #169Offensive rebound rate26.8 #304
14.6 #113Assists per game17.0 #25
Defense
83.2 #349Points allowed68.5 #38
1.12 #265Points allowed per possession1.07 #139
53.1 #272Opponent effective FG%51.9 #207
36.0 #304Opponent 3-point %34.6 #229
15.7 #240Turnovers forced16.8 #168
69.7 #178Defensive rebound rate70.5 #137
7.1 #120Steals per game6.3 #197
2.7 #285Blocks per game2.7 #284
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Oklahoma St

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wichita St70–96
  • Wvs Davidson84–80
  • Lvs TCU88–95
  • Wvs Colorado92–83
  • Lvs Houston75–82

A week or more of rest.

Minnesota

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Baylor48–67
  • Lvs Rutgers67–72
  • Wvs Northwestern67–66
  • L@ Indiana47–77
  • Wvs UCLA78–73

A week or more of rest.