Utah Utes vs Minnesota Golden Gophers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 22, 6:00 PM ETTD Arena · Neutral site

#73UTAHUtah

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Utah and Minnesota
UTAH	This season	MINN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MINN 71–69 · win probability MINN 56%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MINN has more of the edges

UTAH 1, MINN 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MINNSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTAH 14%, MINN 66%. Transfers in: UTAH 6, MINN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

MINNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTAH 16.7%, MINN 16.6%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, MINN 16.8%

MINNSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTAH 52.0 and allows 53.9; MINN 53.9 and allows 51.9

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: UTAH plays 68.3 a game (211th fastest), MINN 63.6 (362nd). Faster games mean more points

MINNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTAH 31.7, MINN 35.8. Allowed: UTAH 29.9, MINN 26.9

MINNSmall

UTAH offense vs MINN defense

Offense 79th of 366 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

UTAHSmall

MINN offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 120th of 366 against a defense 68th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

UTAH hits 35.3% and allows 35.1%; MINN hits 34.1% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 37.5% and 47.1% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

UTAH has played the 53rd-hardest schedule, MINN the 71st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 29.3%, MINN 26.8%. Defensive: UTAH 68.4%, MINN 70.5%

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MINN -1.7	—
Total	—	139.4	—
Projected score	—	UTAH 68.9 · MINN 70.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MINN -0.9	—
1H total	65.3	—
1H projected score	UTAH 32.2 · MINN 33.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UTAH LLLLW	15-17	47%	2-2	—
MINN WLLLL	13-20	39%	0-5	—

Venue/role: UTAH neutral site; MINN neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH UUOOO	18-14	56%	10-22
MINN OUUOU	12-21	36%	15-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAH	1-9 10%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
MINN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Utah

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs CAL	L72–79WU
Dec 9	vs CBU	W91–85WO
Dec 13	vs ACU	W70–56WU

Minnesota

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs CAL	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ MSU	W76–73WO
Dec 8	vs ILL	L67–77WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Utah

32 games played

Straight up

10-22

31% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2231%

W W W W W L L W L W L W L L L L L W L L L L L L L W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1747%

L L L L L L L W W W L W W L L W W W W W L L W W W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

O O O O O O U O U O O O U O U O O O U O U U U U U U U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSJSU	W 84-75	-11.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 8	vsWEB	W 92-89	-15.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 181
Nov 10	vsHC	W 87-69	-21.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 156
Nov 15	vsSHSU	W 85-79	-12.5	L −6.5	159.5	O 164
Nov 18	vsPFW	W 85-77	-13.5	L −5.5	161.5	O 162
Nov 20	vsCP	L 85-92	-14.5	L −21.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 25	vsGCU	L 58-68	+5.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 126
Nov 26	vsMISS	W 75-74	+10.5	W +11.5	144.5	O 149
Dec 2	@CAL	L 72-79	+7.5	W +0.5	152.5	U 151
Dec 6	vsCBU	W 91-85	-5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 176
Dec 13	vsMSST	L 74-82	+1.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsEWU	W 101-77	-10.5	W +13.5	160.5	O 178
Dec 29	@WASH	L 65-74	+12.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 139
Jan 3	vsARIZ	L 78-97	+17.5	L −1.5	162.5	O 175
Jan 7	@COLO	L 73-85	+9.5	L −2.5	162.5	U 158
Jan 10	vsBYU	L 84-89	+14.5	W +9.5	168.5	O 173
Jan 14	@TTU	L 74-88	+17.5	W +3.5	159.5	O 162
Jan 17	vsTCU	W 82-79	+4.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 161
Jan 20	@KSU	L 78-81	+10.5	W +7.5	168.5	U 159
Jan 24	@BYU	L 78-91	+19.5	W +6.5	168.5	O 169
Jan 31	vsOKST	L 69-81	+1.5	L −10.5	166.5	U 150
Feb 4	vsASU	L 63-71	-1.5	L −9.5	161.5	U 134
Feb 7	@KU	L 59-71	+18.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 130
Feb 10	vsHOU	L 52-66	+16.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 118
Feb 15	@CIN	L 65-69	+12.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 134
Feb 18	@WVU	W 61-56	+10.5	W +15.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 21	vsUCF	L 71-73	+1.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 144
Feb 24	vsISU	L 59-75	+14.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 134
Feb 28	@ASU	L 60-73	+6.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 133
Mar 3	vsCOLO	L 78-92	+1.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 170
Mar 7	@BAY	L 75-101	+13.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 176
Mar 10	vsCIN	L 66-73	+12.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJSU

W 84-75

−2.5

WEB

W 92-89

−12.5

W 87-69

−3.5

SHSU

W 85-79

−6.5

PFW

W 85-77

−5.5

L 85-92

−21.5

GCU

L 58-68

−4.5

MISS

W 75-74

+11.5

CAL

L 72-79

+0.5

CBU

W 91-85

+0.5

MSST

L 74-82

−6.5

EWU

W 101-77

+13.5

WASH

L 65-74

+3.5

ARIZ

L 78-97

−1.5

COLO

L 73-85

−2.5

BYU

L 84-89

+9.5

TTU

L 74-88

+3.5

TCU

W 82-79

+7.5

KSU

L 78-81

+7.5

BYU

L 78-91

+6.5

OKST

L 69-81

−10.5

ASU

L 63-71

−9.5

L 59-71

+6.5

HOU

L 52-66

+2.5

CIN

L 65-69

+8.5

WVU

W 61-56

+15.5

UCF

L 71-73

−0.5

ISU

L 59-75

−1.5

ASU

L 60-73

−6.5

COLO

L 78-92

−12.5

BAY

L 75-101

−12.5

CIN

L 66-73

+5.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJSU

W 84-75

+12.5

WEB

W 92-89

+32.5

W 87-69

+0.5

SHSU

W 85-79

+4.5

PFW

W 85-77

+0.5

L 85-92

+9.5

GCU

L 58-68

−27.5

MISS

W 75-74

+4.5

CAL

L 72-79

−1.5

CBU

W 91-85

+30.5

MSST

L 74-82

+2.5

EWU

W 101-77

+17.5

WASH

L 65-74

−18.5

ARIZ

L 78-97

+12.5

COLO

L 73-85

−4.5

BYU

L 84-89

+4.5

TTU

L 74-88

+2.5

TCU

W 82-79

+6.5

KSU

L 78-81

−9.5

BYU

L 78-91

+0.5

OKST

L 69-81

−16.5

ASU

L 63-71

−27.5

L 59-71

−20.5

HOU

L 52-66

−24.5

CIN

L 65-69

−5.5

WVU

W 61-56

−16.5

UCF

L 71-73

−10.5

ISU

L 59-75

−10.5

ASU

L 60-73

−17.5

COLO

L 78-92

+21.5

BAY

L 75-101

+27.5

CIN

L 66-73

+0.5

over 18under 14avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Minnesota

33 games played

Straight up

15-18

45% wins

Against the spread

13-20

39% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-21

36% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1845%

W W L W W L L L W L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L L W W L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-2039%

L W L L L L L L W L W W L W W L L W L L W L W L L W W W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2136%

U U U U U O U O U U U U U O O U O O O U U O O U U U O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGWEB	W 87-60	-28.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 8	vsALCN	W 95-50	-31.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 12	@MIZ	L 60-83	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 15	vsGB	W 72-65	-25.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 18	vsCHST	W 66-54	-27.5	L −15.5	144.5	U 120
Nov 22	vsSF	L 65-77	-1.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 27	vsSTAN	L 68-72	+2.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 28	vsSCU	L 75-86	+5.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 161
Dec 3	vsIU	W 73-64	+7.5	W +16.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 10	@PUR	L 57-85	+19.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 14	vsTXSO	W 89-53	-21.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 21	vsCAM	W 78-50	-13.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 128
Dec 29	vsFDU	W 60-43	-25.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 103
Jan 3	@NU	W 84-78	+4.5	W +10.5	138.5	O 162
Jan 6	vsIOWA	W 70-67	+4.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 137
Jan 9	vsUSC	L 69-70	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 13	vsWIS	L 75-78	+1.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 153
Jan 17	@ILL	L 67-77	+15.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 20	@OSU	L 74-82	+7.5	L −0.5	143.5	O 156
Jan 24	vsNEB	L 57-76	+4.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 28	@WIS	L 63-67	+9.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 130
Feb 1	@PSU	L 75-77	-2.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 4	vsMSU	W 76-73	+8.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 149
Feb 8	vsMD	L 62-67	-10.5	L −15.5	138.5	U 129
Feb 14	@WASH	L 57-69	+6.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 126
Feb 17	@ORE	W 61-44	+3.5	W +20.5	136.5	U 105
Feb 21	vsRUTG	W 80-61	-8.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 24	@MICH	L 67-77	+22.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 144
Feb 28	vsUCLA	W 78-73	+1.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 151
Mar 4	@IU	L 47-77	+7.5	L −22.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 7	vsNU	W 67-66	-4.5	L −3.5	133.5	U 133
Mar 11	vsRUTG	L 67-72	-6.5	L −11.5	135.5	O 139
Apr 1	vsBAY	L 48-67	+3.5	L −15.5	146.5	U 115

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

+13.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−18.5

CHST

W 66-54

−15.5

L 65-77

−13.5

STAN

L 68-72

−1.5

SCU

L 75-86

−5.5

W 73-64

+16.5

PUR

L 57-85

−8.5

TXSO

W 89-53

+14.5

CAM

W 78-50

+14.5

FDU

W 60-43

−8.5

W 84-78

+10.5

IOWA

W 70-67

+7.5

USC

L 69-70

−4.5

WIS

L 75-78

−1.5

ILL

L 67-77

+5.5

OSU

L 74-82

−0.5

NEB

L 57-76

−14.5

WIS

L 63-67

+5.5

PSU

L 75-77

−4.5

MSU

W 76-73

+11.5

L 62-67

−15.5

WASH

L 57-69

−5.5

ORE

W 61-44

+20.5

RUTG

W 80-61

+10.5

MICH

L 67-77

+12.5

UCLA

W 78-73

+6.5

L 47-77

−22.5

W 67-66

−3.5

RUTG

L 67-72

−11.5

BAY

L 48-67

−15.5

covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

−7.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−9.5

CHST

W 66-54

−24.5

L 65-77

+1.5

STAN

L 68-72

−2.5

SCU

L 75-86

+22.5

W 73-64

−7.5

PUR

L 57-85

−1.5

TXSO

W 89-53

−2.5

CAM

W 78-50

−17.5

FDU

W 60-43

−36.5

W 84-78

+23.5

IOWA

W 70-67

+6.5

USC

L 69-70

−8.5

WIS

L 75-78

+6.5

ILL

L 67-77

+1.5

OSU

L 74-82

+12.5

NEB

L 57-76

−7.5

WIS

L 63-67

−16.5

PSU

L 75-77

+9.5

MSU

W 76-73

+12.5

L 62-67

−9.5

WASH

L 57-69

−12.5

ORE

W 61-44

−31.5

RUTG

W 80-61

+4.5

MICH

L 67-77

−1.5

UCLA

W 78-73

+14.5

L 47-77

−14.5

W 67-66

−0.5

RUTG

L 67-72

+3.5

BAY

L 48-67

−31.5

over 12under 21avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Utah has the better starters

Position by position: Utah 3, Minnesota 2, even 0

UtahBetterMinnesota

G T. Campbell TR13.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 3.9 ast Score 85

UTAHSmall

G I. Asuma10.9 pts · 4 reb · 3.7 ast Score 64

G J. Holcombe TR15.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 97

UTAHBig

G M. Palmer TR4.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 43

G T. Burch TR12.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 88

UTAHSmall

F B. Durkin10.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

G O. Abbey2.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 12

MINNBig

F J. Crocker-Johnson13.4 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 81

C M. Gomma TR8 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 28

MINNSmall

F G. Grove4 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 59

UtahBetterMinnesota

UTAH offense79th of 366 · +0.7

MINNSmall

MINN defense22nd of 366 · +5.2

UTAH defense68th of 366 · +0.9

Even

MINN offense120th of 366 · -2.8

Backcourt+6.8 · 4 players

UTAHBig

Backcourt-0.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.4 · 1 player

MINNBig

Frontcourt+2.9 · 3 players

Bench-0.7 · 3 players

UTAHSmall

Bench-2.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUTAH betterMINN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Utah

Guards

T. Campbell34 min · TRJ. Holcombe31 min · TRT. Burch25 min · TRO. Abbey15 minT. Chatman13 min · TRL. Langarita12 min

Forwards

G. Gaddis1 min · TRB. FayeNewZ. LoubakiNewJ. JohnsonNewA. AnigbataNew

Centers

M. Gomma26 min · TRF. SchottNewL. McCannaNew

Minnesota

Guards

I. Asuma34 minM. Palmer18 min · TRK. Evans18 min · TRK. Shinholster13 minN. Groves6 min · TRW. Grady6 min · TR

Forwards

B. Durkin33 minJ. Crocker-Johnson32 minG. Grove21 minN. AndersonNew

Centers

M. Kordel4 min · TRC. MpoyiNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UTAH74.3 #185

MINN69.4 #294

Points per possession

UTAH1.08 #173

MINN1.10 #147

Pace (possessions)

UTAH68.3 #211

MINN63.6 #362

Shooting

Effective FG%

UTAH52.0 #142

MINN53.9 #69

3-point %

UTAH35.3 #98

MINN34.1 #164

3-point attempt rate

UTAH37.5 #222

MINN47.1 #31

Free throw rate

UTAH31.7 #262

MINN35.8 #159

Possessions

Turnover rate

UTAH16.7 #175

MINN16.6 #170

Offensive rebound rate

UTAH29.3 #224

MINN26.8 #304

Assists per game

UTAH13.7 #169

MINN17.0 #25

Defense

Points allowed

UTAH79.1 #302

MINN68.5 #38

Points allowed per possession

UTAH1.16 #337

MINN1.07 #139

Opponent effective FG%

UTAH53.9 #298

MINN51.9 #207

Opponent 3-point %

UTAH35.1 #254

MINN34.6 #229

Turnovers forced

UTAH13.3 #348

MINN16.8 #168

Defensive rebound rate

UTAH68.4 #233

MINN70.5 #137

Steals per game

UTAH5.3 #315

MINN6.3 #197

Blocks per game

UTAH3.4 #160

MINN2.7 #284

UTAH		MINN
Scoring
74.3 #185	Points per game	69.4 #294
1.08 #173	Points per possession	1.10 #147
68.3 #211	Pace (possessions)	63.6 #362
Shooting
52.0 #142	Effective FG%	53.9 #69
35.3 #98	3-point %	34.1 #164
37.5 #222	3-point attempt rate	47.1 #31
31.7 #262	Free throw rate	35.8 #159
Possessions
16.7 #175	Turnover rate	16.6 #170
29.3 #224	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #304
13.7 #169	Assists per game	17.0 #25
Defense
79.1 #302	Points allowed	68.5 #38
1.16 #337	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #139
53.9 #298	Opponent effective FG%	51.9 #207
35.1 #254	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #229
13.3 #348	Turnovers forced	16.8 #168
68.4 #233	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #137
5.3 #315	Steals per game	6.3 #197
3.4 #160	Blocks per game	2.7 #284

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Utah

10-22 in 2025-26 overall · 2-17 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Cincinnati66–73
L@ Baylor75–101
Lvs Colorado78–92
L@ Arizona St60–73
Lvs Iowa State59–75

A week or more of rest.

Minnesota

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Baylor48–67
Lvs Rutgers67–72
Wvs Northwestern67–66
L@ Indiana47–77
Wvs UCLA78–73

A week or more of rest.

Utah Utes vs Minnesota Golden Gophers

What could decide it: MINN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Utah

Minnesota

Utah has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Utah

Minnesota