1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 22
  3. USM vs VAL
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 22

Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Valparaiso Beacons

Pensacola Bay Center · Neutral site
#224USMSouthern Miss
vs
#176VALValparaiso
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
USMThis seasonVAL
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VAL 76–72 · win probability VAL 63%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VAL has more of the edges

USM 0, VAL 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VALBig
Three-pointers
USM hits 28.9% and allows 34.5%; VAL hits 33.9% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 28.7% and 36.8% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: USM plays 70.1 a game (113th fastest), VAL 67.4 (258th). Faster games mean more points
VALSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: USM 18.4%, VAL 15.7%. Forced: USM 17.8%, VAL 16.9%
VALSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: USM 43.2, VAL 39.1. Allowed: USM 43.6, VAL 35.1
VALSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: USM 23%, VAL 51%. Transfers in: USM 3, VAL 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
USM has played the 184th-hardest schedule, VAL the 143rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
VAL offense vs USM defense
Offense 199th of 366 against a defense 239th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: USM 32.5%, VAL 32.5%. Defensive: USM 71.2%, VAL 69.9%
Even
USM offense vs VAL defense
Offense 203rd of 366 against a defense 170th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: USM 49.0 and allows 51.4; VAL 47.6 and allows 50.5
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—VAL -3.8—
Total—147.3—
Projected score—USM 71.7 · VAL 75.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadVAL -2.1—
1H total68.9—
1H projected scoreUSM 33.4 · VAL 35.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Southern Miss 2, Valparaiso 2, even 1
Southern MissBetterValparaiso
G J. Gaines-Wyatt TR11.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59
Even
G R. Chaney10.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 62
G I. Taveras15.4 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 90
USMBig
G B. Alocen TR6.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 34
G B. Carruth2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 6
VALBig
G J. McNair7.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 65
F C. Wallace TR12.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 53
VALSmall
F J. Pettigrew12.6 pts · 6.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 70
F M. Overstreet TR2.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.3 ast Score 39
USMSmall
F C. Hopoi3.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 23
Southern MissBetterValparaiso
USM offense203rd of 366 · -6.3
Even
VAL defense170th of 366 · -3.9
USM defense239th of 366 · -6.3
Even
VAL offense199th of 366 · -6.1
Backcourt+0.4 · 3 players
USMSmall
Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.1 · 2 players
Bench-0.9 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUSM betterVAL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Southern Miss
Guards
J. Gaines-Wyatt27 min · TRI. Taveras27 minB. Carruth12 minB. WestonNewA. IgiedeNewC. CereseNew
Forwards
C. Wallace29 min · TRM. Overstreet10 min · TRM. MontanoNew
Centers
F. Diagne6 minM. BlankNew
Valparaiso
Guards
R. Chaney29 minB. Alocen22 min · TRJ. McNair18 minS. Servilus10 minN. Lombardi1 minC. Webster1 min
Forwards
J. Pettigrew28 minC. Hopoi15 minK. WalkerNewG. RichardsonNewH. ScrogginsNew
Centers
K. Yu8 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
USMVAL
Scoring
73.9 #197Points per game71.2 #263
1.05 #242Points per possession1.06 #233
70.1 #113Pace (possessions)67.4 #258
Shooting
49.0 #289Effective FG%47.6 #322
28.9 #3553-point %33.9 #180
28.7 #3583-point attempt rate36.8 #234
43.2 #18Free throw rate39.1 #79
Possessions
18.4 #290Turnover rate15.7 #116
32.5 #103Offensive rebound rate32.5 #110
11.2 #330Assists per game11.7 #307
Defense
74.8 #183Points allowed71.9 #103
1.07 #127Points allowed per possession1.06 #116
51.4 #177Opponent effective FG%50.5 #130
34.5 #217Opponent 3-point %32.1 #70
17.8 #109Turnovers forced16.9 #161
71.2 #97Defensive rebound rate69.9 #167
7.3 #98Steals per game5.9 #245
3.6 #127Blocks per game3.6 #124
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern Miss

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Troy70–78
  • Wvs App State86–73
  • Wvs Texas St81–77
  • Wvs James Madison86–80
  • W@ South Alabama68–55

A week or more of rest.

Valparaiso

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Bradley84–90
  • Wvs Indiana St63–62
  • L@ Evansville79–80
  • Wvs Drake74–71
  • W@ UIC71–67

A week or more of rest.