1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 20
  3. WIU vs UALB
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 20

Western Illinois Leathernecks vs UAlbany Great Danes

Koessler Athletic Center · Neutral site
#365WIUW Illinois
vs
#301UALBUAlbany
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WIUThis seasonUALB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UALB 76–66 · win probability UALB 81%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 141.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UALB has more of the edges

WIU 1, UALB 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WIUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: WIU 37.7, UALB 24.9. Allowed: WIU 34.8, UALB 35.7
UALBBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WIU 27.0%, UALB 32.7%. Defensive: WIU 65.2%, UALB 67.6%
UALBSmall
WIU offense vs UALB defense
Offense 365th of 366 against a defense 259th, on the model’s ratings
UALBSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: WIU 44.5 and allows 54.2; UALB 51.4 and allows 53.2
Context
Schedule so far
WIU has played the 361st-hardest schedule, UALB the 260th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UALBSmall
UALB offense vs WIU defense
Offense 313th of 366 against a defense 362nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: WIU plays 67.6 a game (246th fastest), UALB 65.6 (324th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WIU 21%, UALB 38%. Transfers in: WIU 0, UALB 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
WIU hits 30.9% and allows 35.6%; UALB hits 32.6% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 33.3% and 37.6% of their shots
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WIU 17.5%, UALB 18.5%. Forced: WIU 14.9%, UALB 15.8%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UALB -10.1—
Total—141.5—
Projected score—WIU 65.7 · UALB 75.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUALB -5.8—
1H total66.2—
1H projected scoreWIU 30.2 · UALB 36—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UAlbany has the better starters

Position by position: W Illinois 0, UAlbany 2, even 3
W IllinoisBetterUAlbany
G M. Kvamme5 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 9
UALBSmall
G A. Fall9.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 27
F D. Stephens5.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13
UALBBig
G Z. Matulu9.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 48
F J. Riley NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G P. Santos TR6.9 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51
F I. Davis NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G M. Rose2.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 1
F D. Traylor NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F B. Michaels TR1.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3
W IllinoisBetterUAlbany
WIU offense365th of 366 · -15.6
UALBSmall
UALB defense259th of 366 · -6.7
WIU defense362nd of 366 · -11.6
Even
UALB offense313th of 366 · -10.0
Backcourt-3.1 · 1 player
WIUSmall
Backcourt-6.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.7 · 4 players
Even
Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.2 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestWIU betterUALB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
W Illinois
Guards
M. Kvamme26 minD. FlowersNewH. VaughnNewA. KonateNewJ. CainNewT. MooreNew
Forwards
D. Stephens17 minJ. RileyNewI. DavisNewD. TraylorNewM. BiembongoNewS. HigginsNew
UAlbany
Guards
A. Fall31 minZ. Matulu30 minP. Santos19 min · TRM. Rose15 minP. KountaNewO. EngenNew
Forwards
B. Michaels13 min · TRE. BussingNewP. MiovicNewU. GrahamNew
Centers
K. Webb3 min · TRC. SmithNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WIUUALB
Scoring
63.2 #357Points per game68.7 #302
0.94 #359Points per possession1.05 #259
67.6 #246Pace (possessions)65.6 #324
Shooting
44.5 #361Effective FG%51.4 #182
30.9 #3223-point %32.6 #248
33.3 #3113-point attempt rate37.6 #220
37.7 #108Free throw rate24.9 #364
Possessions
17.5 #239Turnover rate18.5 #299
27.0 #293Offensive rebound rate32.7 #99
8.1 #365Assists per game12.8 #232
Defense
78.5 #281Points allowed74.5 #176
1.16 #334Points allowed per possession1.14 #302
54.2 #303Opponent effective FG%53.2 #275
35.6 #288Opponent 3-point %36.0 #302
14.9 #300Turnovers forced15.8 #228
65.2 #334Defensive rebound rate67.6 #277
5.1 #331Steals per game6.7 #153
2.0 #346Blocks per game3.9 #82
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

W Illinois

2-26 in 2025-26 overall · 1-19 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Lindenwood Lions69–91
  • L@ SIUE47–67
  • Lvs Morehead St59–81
  • Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles70–77
  • Lvs Little Rock58–77

A week or more of rest.

UAlbany

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMass Lowell76–81
  • L@ Vermont56–69
  • Wvs New Hampshire84–61
  • Lvs Maine59–70
  • L@ UMBC62–66

A week or more of rest.