Indiana State Sycamores vs Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 3:00 PM ETElridge Blake Sports and Fitness Center · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Indiana St and SF Austin
INST	This season	SFA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SFA 75–73 · win probability SFA 58%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SFA has more of the edges

INST 0, SFA 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SFABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: INST 19.5%, SFA 14.2%. Forced: INST 14.9%, SFA 17.7%

Context

Schedule so far

INST has played the 149th-hardest schedule, SFA the 338th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SFABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: INST 26.2%, SFA 33.8%. Defensive: INST 68.2%, SFA 70.5%

SFABig

Three-pointers

INST hits 31.6% and allows 31.2%; SFA hits 35.8% and allows 30.3%. Threes are 45.2% and 39.8% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: INST plays 69.7 a game (131st fastest), SFA 66.4 (298th). Faster games mean more points

SFASmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: INST 0%, SFA 26%. Transfers in: INST 6, SFA 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

SFA offense vs INST defense

Offense 252nd of 366 against a defense 267th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: INST 52.8 and allows 50.2; SFA 51.7 and allows 47.7

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

INST offense vs SFA defense

Offense 162nd of 366 against a defense 156th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: INST 27.4, SFA 30.1. Allowed: INST 28.7, SFA 31.1

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SFA -2.2	—
Total	—	147.6	—
Projected score	—	INST 72.7 · SFA 74.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SFA -1.2	—
1H total	69.0	—
1H projected score	INST 33.9 · SFA 35.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
INST LLLWW	18-12	60%	1-1	—
SFA WWLLW	23-9	72%	0-2	—

Venue/role: INST neutral site; SFA neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
INST OOUUU	13-17	43%	9-21
SFA UOUOO	14-18	44%	26-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INST	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
SFA	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Indiana St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs SIUE	W64–55WU
Dec 6	vs USI	W77–55WU
Dec 12	@ ORE	No recent meeting

SF Austin

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ SMU	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs ETAM	W74–70LO
Dec 9	vs UTA	L61–66LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Indiana St

30 games played

Straight up

9-21

30% wins

Against the spread

18-12

60% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2130%

L W L W W L L W W L L W L L L W L L L L L W L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1260%

L W L W W W L W W L L W W W L W W W L W L W L W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

O U U U U O O U U O U O O U U O U U U O O O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLT	L 76-92	+4.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 10	@SIUE	W 64-55	+2.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 119
Nov 14	@DUKE	L 62-100	+37.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 162
Nov 19	vsLT	W 60-51	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 22	vsBALL	W 70-52	-7.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 26	@LT	L 73-75	+2.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsALCN	L 74-81	-12.5	L −19.5	152.5	O 155
Dec 7	vsUSI	W 77-55	-11.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 132
Dec 14	@MILW	W 70-68	+2.5	W +4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 18	vsBRAD	L 99-108	+5.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 207
Dec 21	@ILST	L 65-85	+13.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 150
Dec 29	vsBEL	W 81-80	+7.5	W +8.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 1	@UNI	L 66-75	+10.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 4	@DRKE	L 72-74	+6.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 146
Jan 10	vsEVAN	L 69-72	-7.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 14	vsILST	W 94-89	+6.5	W +11.5	148.5	O 183
Jan 17	@MUR	L 81-85	+11.5	W +7.5	167.5	U 166
Jan 21	@BRAD	L 68-75	+8.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 24	vsDRKE	L 62-76	-3.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 138
Jan 27	@UIC	L 74-76	+5.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 31	vsVAL	L 72-76	-2.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 3	@EVAN	W 84-63	-1.5	W +19.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 9	vsSIU	L 65-80	+1.5	L −13.5	146.5	U 145
Feb 12	vsMUR	L 72-74	+3.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 146
Feb 15	@VAL	L 75-76	+4.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsUNI	L 60-81	+5.5	L −15.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 21	@BEL	L 70-87	+12.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 157
Feb 25	@SIU	L 55-66	+8.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 121
Mar 1	vsUIC	W 79-63	+3.5	W +19.5	144.5	U 142
Mar 5	vsVAL	L 62-63	+2.5	W +1.5	140.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

−11.5

SIUE

W 64-55

+11.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−0.5

W 60-51

+5.5

BALL

W 70-52

+10.5

L 73-75

+0.5

ALCN

L 74-81

−19.5

USI

W 77-55

+10.5

MILW

W 70-68

+4.5

BRAD

L 99-108

−3.5

ILST

L 65-85

−6.5

BEL

W 81-80

+8.5

UNI

L 66-75

+1.5

DRKE

L 72-74

+4.5

EVAN

L 69-72

−10.5

ILST

W 94-89

+11.5

MUR

L 81-85

+7.5

BRAD

L 68-75

+1.5

DRKE

L 62-76

−17.5

UIC

L 74-76

+3.5

VAL

L 72-76

−6.5

EVAN

W 84-63

+19.5

SIU

L 65-80

−13.5

MUR

L 72-74

+1.5

VAL

L 75-76

+3.5

UNI

L 60-81

−15.5

BEL

L 70-87

−4.5

SIU

L 55-66

−2.5

UIC

W 79-63

+19.5

VAL

L 62-63

+1.5

covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

+15.5

SIUE

W 64-55

−40.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−1.5

W 60-51

−36.5

BALL

W 70-52

−32.5

L 73-75

+6.5

ALCN

L 74-81

+2.5

USI

W 77-55

−26.5

MILW

W 70-68

−21.5

BRAD

L 99-108

+56.5

ILST

L 65-85

−2.5

BEL

W 81-80

+1.5

UNI

L 66-75

+5.5

DRKE

L 72-74

−3.5

EVAN

L 69-72

−4.5

ILST

W 94-89

+34.5

MUR

L 81-85

−1.5

BRAD

L 68-75

−12.5

DRKE

L 62-76

−13.5

UIC

L 74-76

+2.5

VAL

L 72-76

+2.5

EVAN

W 84-63

+1.5

SIU

L 65-80

−1.5

MUR

L 72-74

−17.5

VAL

L 75-76

+5.5

UNI

L 60-81

+4.5

BEL

L 70-87

+0.5

SIU

L 55-66

−26.5

UIC

W 79-63

−2.5

VAL

L 62-63

−15.5

over 13under 17avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

SF Austin

32 games played

Straight up

26-6

81% wins

Against the spread

23-9

72% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

26-681%

W W W L W L W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

23-972%

W W W L W L W W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L W W L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

U O U O U U U O U U U U U O U O U O U O U O O U O O U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsARST	W 90-65	+1.5	W +26.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 11	@RICE	W 81-69	+2.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 150
Nov 14	vsACU	W 76-66	-6.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 142
Nov 18	@FRES	L 78-80	-2.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 21	@PEPP	W 63-60	-1.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 123
Nov 29	@UTA	L 61-66	+1.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 127
Dec 3	vsRGV	W 73-60	-6.5	W +6.5	143.5	U 133
Dec 7	vsULM	W 96-76	-19.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 172
Dec 17	vsAMCC	W 69-60	-6.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 129
Dec 29	@ETAM	W 75-48	-4.5	W +22.5	146.5	U 123
Dec 31	@NWST	W 74-64	-8.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 138
Jan 3	@SELA	W 73-63	-3.5	W +6.5	137.5	U 136
Jan 5	@MCN	L 64-66	+10.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 10	vsHCU	W 85-67	-12.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 152
Jan 12	vsUIW	W 56-46	-7.5	W +2.5	140.5	U 102
Jan 17	@NOLA	W 84-79	-6.5	L −1.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 19	@NICH	W 79-62	-4.5	W +12.5	144.5	U 141
Jan 24	@LAM	W 88-81	-4.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 169
Jan 27	vsNWST	W 69-67	-14.5	L −12.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 31	vsSELA	W 85-58	-9.5	W +17.5	135.5	O 143
Feb 2	vsMCN	W 67-60	+2.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 127
Feb 7	vsLAM	W 84-74	-8.5	W +1.5	138.5	O 158
Feb 9	vsETAM	W 74-70	-16.5	L −12.5	143.5	O 144
Feb 14	@RGV	W 66-57	-1.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 123
Feb 16	@AMCC	W 78-68	-5.5	W +4.5	135.5	O 146
Feb 21	vsNICH	W 81-78	-12.5	L −9.5	147.5	O 159
Feb 23	vsNOLA	L 73-77	-11.5	L −15.5	153.5	U 150
Feb 28	@HCU	W 77-56	-8.5	W +12.5	138.5	U 133
Mar 2	@UIW	W 76-68	-7.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 144
Mar 10	vsAMCC	W 60-58	-6.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 118
Mar 11	vsMCN	L 59-76	+3.5	L −13.5	134.5	O 135
Mar 17	@TLSA	L 84-89	+5.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARST

W 90-65

+26.5

RICE

W 81-69

+14.5

ACU

W 76-66

+3.5

FRES

L 78-80

−4.5

PEPP

W 63-60

+1.5

UTA

L 61-66

−3.5

RGV

W 73-60

+6.5

ULM

W 96-76

+0.5

AMCC

W 69-60

+2.5

ETAM

W 75-48

+22.5

NWST

W 74-64

+1.5

SELA

W 73-63

+6.5

MCN

L 64-66

+8.5

HCU

W 85-67

+5.5

UIW

W 56-46

+2.5

NOLA

W 84-79

−1.5

NICH

W 79-62

+12.5

LAM

W 88-81

+2.5

NWST

W 69-67

−12.5

SELA

W 85-58

+17.5

MCN

W 67-60

+9.5

LAM

W 84-74

+1.5

ETAM

W 74-70

−12.5

RGV

W 66-57

+7.5

AMCC

W 78-68

+4.5

NICH

W 81-78

−9.5

NOLA

L 73-77

−15.5

HCU

W 77-56

+12.5

UIW

W 76-68

+0.5

AMCC

W 60-58

−4.5

MCN

L 59-76

−13.5

TLSA

L 84-89

+0.5

covered 23didn’t cover 9avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARST

W 90-65

−0.5

RICE

W 81-69

+0.5

ACU

W 76-66

−0.5

FRES

L 78-80

+11.5

PEPP

W 63-60

−25.5

UTA

L 61-66

−11.5

RGV

W 73-60

−10.5

ULM

W 96-76

+29.5

AMCC

W 69-60

−10.5

ETAM

W 75-48

−23.5

NWST

W 74-64

−0.5

SELA

W 73-63

−1.5

MCN

L 64-66

−14.5

HCU

W 85-67

+14.5

UIW

W 56-46

−38.5

NOLA

W 84-79

+15.5

NICH

W 79-62

−3.5

LAM

W 88-81

+32.5

NWST

W 69-67

−5.5

SELA

W 85-58

+7.5

MCN

W 67-60

−14.5

LAM

W 84-74

+19.5

ETAM

W 74-70

+0.5

RGV

W 66-57

−21.5

AMCC

W 78-68

+10.5

NICH

W 81-78

+11.5

NOLA

L 73-77

−3.5

HCU

W 77-56

−5.5

UIW

W 76-68

+1.5

AMCC

W 60-58

−17.5

MCN

L 59-76

+0.5

TLSA

L 84-89

+23.5

over 14under 18avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Indiana St 1, SF Austin 1, even 3

Indiana StBetterSF Austin

G K. Gregory TR16.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 70

INSTSmall

G M. Russell TR15 pts · 3.9 reb · 2 ast Score 36

G M. White TR10.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 58

Even

G N. Chotikavanic9.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 60

G M. Mitchell TR11.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 28

Even

F E. Daniel TR3.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 41

G D. Paschal TR3.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 16

SFABig

F G. Alisas4.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 52

G C. Puryear TR0.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F A. Reed TR2.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 42

Indiana StBetterSF Austin

INST offense162nd of 366 · -4.8

Even

SFA defense156th of 366 · -3.4

INST defense267th of 366 · -6.8

Even

SFA offense252nd of 366 · -7.6

Backcourt-3.1 · 5 players

SFASmall

Backcourt-1.9 · 2 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-0.8 · 3 players

Bench-0.1 · 1 player

INSTSmall

Bench-1.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestINST betterSFA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Indiana St

Guards

K. Gregory32 min · TRM. White31 min · TRM. Mitchell27 min · TRD. Paschal12 min · TRC. Puryear3 min · TRE. McQuillanNew

Forwards

A. Vlajic1 min · TRJ. CooperNewA. CalamitaNewK. LandNewK. SpeckmanNew

SF Austin

Guards

M. Russell36 min · TRN. Chotikavanic23 minC. Green7 minM. Scurry7 minA. Simmons4 min · TRB. Melvin3 min

Forwards

E. Daniel14 min · TRG. Alisas14 minA. Reed11 min · TRK. Pearson8 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

INST71.7 #254

SFA74.9 #166

Points per possession

INST1.03 #295

SFA1.13 #88

Pace (possessions)

INST69.7 #131

SFA66.4 #298

Shooting

Effective FG%

INST52.8 #110

SFA51.7 #160

3-point %

INST31.6 #305

SFA35.8 #71

3-point attempt rate

INST45.2 #62

SFA39.8 #176

Free throw rate

INST27.4 #349

SFA30.1 #306

Possessions

Turnover rate

INST19.5 #338

SFA14.2 #29

Offensive rebound rate

INST26.2 #317

SFA33.8 #74

Assists per game

INST17.1 #22

SFA13.1 #209

Defense

Points allowed

INST75.1 #193

SFA66.7 #20

Points allowed per possession

INST1.08 #161

SFA1.00 #29

Opponent effective FG%

INST50.2 #110

SFA47.7 #35

Opponent 3-point %

INST31.2 #37

SFA30.3 #11

Turnovers forced

INST14.9 #299

SFA17.7 #116

Defensive rebound rate

INST68.2 #245

SFA70.5 #131

Steals per game

INST6.0 #242

SFA6.9 #136

Blocks per game

INST3.3 #176

SFA3.7 #118

INST		SFA
Scoring
71.7 #254	Points per game	74.9 #166
1.03 #295	Points per possession	1.13 #88
69.7 #131	Pace (possessions)	66.4 #298
Shooting
52.8 #110	Effective FG%	51.7 #160
31.6 #305	3-point %	35.8 #71
45.2 #62	3-point attempt rate	39.8 #176
27.4 #349	Free throw rate	30.1 #306
Possessions
19.5 #338	Turnover rate	14.2 #29
26.2 #317	Offensive rebound rate	33.8 #74
17.1 #22	Assists per game	13.1 #209
Defense
75.1 #193	Points allowed	66.7 #20
1.08 #161	Points allowed per possession	1.00 #29
50.2 #110	Opponent effective FG%	47.7 #35
31.2 #37	Opponent 3-point %	30.3 #11
14.9 #299	Turnovers forced	17.7 #116
68.2 #245	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #131
6.0 #242	Steals per game	6.9 #136
3.3 #176	Blocks per game	3.7 #118

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Indiana St

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-17 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Valparaiso62–63
Wvs UIC79–63
L@ S Illinois55–66
L@ Belmont70–87
Lvs Northern Iowa60–81

A week or more of rest.

SF Austin

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 21-3 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Tulsa84–89
Lvs McNeese59–76
Wvs Texas A&M-CC60–58
W@ Incarnate Word76–68
W@ Hou Christian77–56

A week or more of rest.

Indiana State Sycamores vs Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

What could decide it: SFA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Indiana St

SF Austin

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Indiana St

SF Austin