TD Arena · Neutral site
LineNo line yet
Total—
 NU | This season | VT |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects NU 76–75 · win probability NU 54%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: VT has more of the edges
NU 0, VT 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VTBigThree-pointers
NU hits 33.0% and allows 33.4%; VT hits 35.5% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 34.0% and 39.7% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: NU plays 65.5 a game (328th fastest), VT 69.8 (127th). Faster games mean more points
VTSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NU 28.1%, VT 31.9%. Defensive: NU 65.3%, VT 67.4%
VTSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: NU 33.9, VT 34.0. Allowed: NU 34.8, VT 28.8
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NU 24%, VT 47%. Transfers in: NU 8, VT 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
NU has played the 36th-hardest schedule, VT the 74th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NU 13.1%, VT 14.9%. Forced: NU 17.5%, VT 17.3%
Even
VT offense vs NU defense
Offense 68th of 366 against a defense 42nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: NU 51.7 and allows 51.0; VT 52.2 and allows 50.9
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
NU offense vs VT defense
Offense 67th of 366 against a defense 72nd, on the model’s ratings
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | — | NU -1.3 | — |
| Total | — | 150.8 | — |
| Projected score | — | NU 76.1 · VT 74.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | NU -0.9 | — |
| 1H total | 70.5 | — |
| 1H projected score | NU 35.7 · VT 34.8 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
| VT | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Northwestern
34 games played
Straight up
15-19
44% wins
Against the spread
18-16
53% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-19
44% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MERC | W 70-47 | -26.5 | L −3.5 | 140.5 | U 117 |
| Nov 7 | vs BU | W 76-52 | -17.5 | W +6.5 | 136.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 10 | vs CLE | W 110-63 | -23.5 | W +23.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | @ DEP | W 81-79 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs UVA | L 78-83 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs SC | W 79-77 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 27 | vs OKST | L 81-86 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 3 | @ WIS | L 73-85 | +10.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs OSU | L 82-86 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs JKST | W 93-53 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 16 | vs VAL | W 86-70 | -14.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 20 | vs BTLR | L 58-61 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 119 |
| Dec 30 | vs HOW | W 80-60 | -19.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 3 | vs MINN | L 78-84 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 138.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 8 | @ MSU | L 66-76 | +13.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 11 | @ RUTG | L 75-77 | -4.5 | L −6.5 | 144.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 14 | vs ILL | L 68-79 | +9.5 | L −1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vs NEB | L 58-77 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 21 | @ USC | W 74-68 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 24 | @ UCLA | L 64-71 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 143.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 29 | vs PSU | W 94-73 | -7.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 31 | vs WASH | L 62-76 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 146.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 4 | @ILL | L 44-84 | +16.5 | L −23.5 | 149.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 8 | @ IOWA | L 70-76 | +10.5 | W +4.5 | 139.5 | O 146 |
| Feb 11 | vs MICH | L 75-87 | +15.5 | W +3.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | @NEB | L 49-68 | +13.5 | L −5.5 | 146.5 | U 117 |
| Feb 18 | vs MD | W 78-74 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 24 | @ IU | W 72-68 | +9.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | U 140 |
| Feb 28 | vs ORE | W 63-62 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 141.5 | U 125 |
| Mar 4 | vs PUR | L 66-70 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | U 136 |
| Mar 7 | @MINN | L 66-67 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 133.5 | U 133 |
| Mar 10 | vsPSU | W 76-66 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Mar 11 | vsIU | W 74-61 | +6.5 | W +19.5 | 142.5 | U 135 |
| Mar 12 | vsPUR | L 68-81 | +13.5 | W +0.5 | 139.5 | O 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−3.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
+6.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+23.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
−3.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
−0.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
−2.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
−7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
−1.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
−2.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
+9.5
16
vsVAL
VALW 86-70
+1.5
20
vsBTLR
BTLRL 58-61
+0.5
30
vsHOW
HOWW 80-60
+0.5
3
vsMINN
MINNL 78-84
−10.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-76
+3.5
11
@RUTG
RUTGL 75-77
−6.5
14
vsILL
ILLL 68-79
−1.5
17
vsNEB
NEBL 58-77
−14.5
21
@USC
USCW 74-68
+12.5
24
@UCLA
UCLAL 64-71
+0.5
29
vsPSU
PSUW 94-73
+13.5
31
vsWASH
WASHL 62-76
−15.5
4
@ILL
ILLL 44-84
−23.5
8
@IOWA
IOWAL 70-76
+4.5
11
vsMICH
MICHL 75-87
+3.5
14
@NEB
NEBL 49-68
−5.5
18
vsMD
MDW 78-74
−3.5
24
@IU
IUW 72-68
+13.5
28
vsORE
OREW 63-62
−2.5
4
vsPUR
PURL 66-70
+8.5
7
@MINN
MINNL 66-67
+3.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 76-66
+5.5
11
vsIU
IUW 74-61
+19.5
12
vsPUR
PURL 68-81
+0.5
covered 18didn’t cover 16avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−23.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
−8.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+21.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
+14.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
+11.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
+9.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
+7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
+2.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
+12.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
−0.5
16
vsVAL
VALW 86-70
+10.5
20
vsBTLR
BTLRL 58-61
−35.5
30
vsHOW
HOWW 80-60
−8.5
3
vsMINN
MINNL 78-84
+23.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-76
−1.5
11
@RUTG
RUTGL 75-77
+7.5
14
vsILL
ILLL 68-79
−4.5
17
vsNEB
NEBL 58-77
−14.5
21
@USC
USCW 74-68
−7.5
24
@UCLA
UCLAL 64-71
−8.5
29
vsPSU
PSUW 94-73
+18.5
31
vsWASH
WASHL 62-76
−8.5
4
@ILL
ILLL 44-84
−21.5
8
@IOWA
IOWAL 70-76
+6.5
11
vsMICH
MICHL 75-87
+8.5
14
@NEB
NEBL 49-68
−29.5
18
vsMD
MDW 78-74
+9.5
24
@IU
IUW 72-68
−5.5
28
vsORE
OREW 63-62
−16.5
4
vsPUR
PURL 66-70
−9.5
7
@MINN
MINNL 66-67
−0.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 76-66
−1.5
11
vsIU
IUW 74-61
−7.5
12
vsPUR
PURL 68-81
+9.5
over 15under 19avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Virginia Tech
32 games played
Straight up
19-13
59% wins
Against the spread
19-13
59% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-15
53% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CHSO | W 98-67 | -18.5 | W +12.5 | 146.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 8 | vs PROV | W 107-101 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | O 208 |
| Nov 12 | vs JOES | W 94-59 | -12.5 | W +22.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 16 | vs CLT | W 84-76 | -18.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 19 | vs BRY | W 78-61 | -24.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 26 | vs CSU | W 66-64 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 27 | vs SMC | L 66-77 | +5.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 28 | vs VCU | L 68-86 | +2.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 2 | @SC | W 86-83 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 149.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs GMU | W 73-62 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 11 | vs WCU | W 96-74 | -20.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 14 | vs UMES | W 82-53 | -27.5 | W +1.5 | 139.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vs ELON | W 82-81 | -12.5 | L −11.5 | 158.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 31 | vsUVA | W 95-85 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ WAKE | L 78-81 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 7 | vs STAN | L 68-69 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 148.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 10 | vs CAL | W 78-75 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 14 | @ SMU | L 76-77 | +8.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 17 | vs ND | W 89-76 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 21 | @ SYR | W 76-74 | +3.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 24 | @ LOU | L 71-85 | +14.5 | W +0.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 27 | vs GT | W 71-65 | -9.5 | L −3.5 | 155.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 31 | vs DUKE | L 58-72 | +13.5 | L −0.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 7 | @ NCSU | L 73-82 | +10.5 | W +1.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 11 | @ CLEM | W 76-66 | +8.5 | W +18.5 | 138.5 | O 142 |
| Feb 14 | vs FSU | L 69-92 | -4.5 | L −27.5 | 156.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 17 | @ MIA | L 66-67 | +8.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 21 | vsWAKE | W 82-63 | -3.5 | W +15.5 | 150.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 28 | @ UNC | L 82-89 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 171 |
| Mar 3 | vs BC | W 72-63 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 142.5 | U 135 |
| Mar 7 | @UVA | L 72-76 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Mar 10 | vsWAKE | L 89-95 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | O 184 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCHSO
CHSOW 98-67
+12.5
8
vsPROV
PROVW 107-101
+8.5
12
vsJOES
JOESW 94-59
+22.5
16
vsCLT
CLTW 84-76
−10.5
19
vsBRY
BRYW 78-61
−7.5
26
vsCSU
CSUW 66-64
−2.5
27
vsSMC
SMCL 66-77
−5.5
28
vsVCU
VCUL 68-86
−15.5
2
@SC
SCW 86-83
+5.5
6
vsGMU
GMUW 73-62
+6.5
11
vsWCU
WCUW 96-74
+1.5
14
vsUMES
UMESW 82-53
+1.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 82-81
−11.5
31
vsUVA
UVAW 95-85
+15.5
3
@WAKE
WAKEL 78-81
+2.5
7
vsSTAN
STANL 68-69
−4.5
10
vsCAL
CALW 78-75
−2.5
14
@SMU
SMUL 76-77
+7.5
17
vsND
NDW 89-76
+6.5
21
@SYR
SYRW 76-74
+5.5
24
@LOU
LOUL 71-85
+0.5
27
vsGT
GTW 71-65
−3.5
31
vsDUKE
DUKEL 58-72
−0.5
7
@NCSU
NCSUL 73-82
+1.5
11
@CLEM
CLEMW 76-66
+18.5
14
vsFSU
FSUL 69-92
−27.5
17
@MIA
MIAL 66-67
+7.5
21
vsWAKE
WAKEW 82-63
+15.5
28
@UNC
UNCL 82-89
+0.5
3
vsBC
BCW 72-63
−2.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 72-76
+7.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEL 89-95
−4.5
covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCHSO
CHSOW 98-67
+18.5
8
vsPROV
PROVW 107-101
+50.5
12
vsJOES
JOESW 94-59
−5.5
16
vsCLT
CLTW 84-76
+14.5
19
vsBRY
BRYW 78-61
−12.5
26
vsCSU
CSUW 66-64
−23.5
27
vsSMC
SMCL 66-77
−1.5
28
vsVCU
VCUL 68-86
+0.5
2
@SC
SCW 86-83
+19.5
6
vsGMU
GMUW 73-62
−9.5
11
vsWCU
WCUW 96-74
+17.5
14
vsUMES
UMESW 82-53
−4.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 82-81
+4.5
31
vsUVA
UVAW 95-85
+26.5
3
@WAKE
WAKEL 78-81
+5.5
7
vsSTAN
STANL 68-69
−11.5
10
vsCAL
CALW 78-75
+4.5
14
@SMU
SMUL 76-77
−2.5
17
vsND
NDW 89-76
+21.5
21
@SYR
SYRW 76-74
−2.5
24
@LOU
LOUL 71-85
−4.5
27
vsGT
GTW 71-65
−19.5
31
vsDUKE
DUKEL 58-72
−18.5
7
@NCSU
NCSUL 73-82
+0.5
11
@CLEM
CLEMW 76-66
+3.5
14
vsFSU
FSUL 69-92
+4.5
17
@MIA
MIAL 66-67
−15.5
21
vsWAKE
WAKEW 82-63
−5.5
28
@UNC
UNCL 82-89
+21.5
3
vsBC
BCW 72-63
−7.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 72-76
+2.5
10
vsWAKE
WAKEL 89-95
+33.5
over 17under 15avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Virginia Tech has the better starters
Position by position: Northwestern 0, Virginia Tech 2, even 3
NorthwesternBetterVirginia Tech
G L. Pratt TR17 pts · 1.7 reb · 3.3 ast
Not ranked
=No call
G E. Copeland TR14.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.1 ast
Score 67
F J. Karasinski TR21.7 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 97
=Even
G B. Hammond13.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 3.2 ast
Score 89
F C. Smith TR11.9 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 48
→VTSmall
G I. Elohim TR12.2 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.1 ast
Score 71
F L. McEldon TR11.7 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 82
=Even
G T. Johnson8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.6 ast
Score 77
F O. Federiko TR8.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 61
→VTSmall
F A. Hansberry14.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 92
NorthwesternBetterVirginia Tech
NU offense67th of 366 · +1.8
=Even
VT defense72nd of 366 · +0.8
NU defense42nd of 366 · +2.7
=Even
VT offense68th of 366 · +1.8
Backcourt+0.9 · 1 player
→VTBig
Backcourt+4.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt+7.1 · 4 players
←NUBig
Frontcourt+3.8 · 1 player
Bench-2.1 · 5 players
→VTBig
Bench+1.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNU betterVT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
NorthwesternGuards
L. Pratt33 min · TRA. Ciaravino22 minJ. West22 minA. Kostic12 min · TRD. Williams9 min · TRP. Gill4 min
Forwards
J. Karasinski30 min · TRC. Smith30 min · TRL. McEldon26 min · TRO. Federiko23 min · TRR. Soulis20 min · TRE. EschmeyerNew
Centers
S. GhaiNew
Virginia TechGuards
E. Copeland32 min · TRB. Hammond32 minI. Elohim29 min · TRT. Johnson26 minJ. Curry24 min · TRB. Johnson21 min · TR
Forwards
A. Hansberry31 minM. Heide19 min · TRK. Atak14 min · TRS. Jones7 min
Centers
M. Sagnia12 min · TRS. DavisNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
NU73.2 #220VT78.8 #85Points per possession
NU1.12 #100VT1.13 #89Pace (possessions)
NU65.5 #328VT69.8 #127Shooting
Effective FG%
NU51.7 #159VT52.2 #1343-point %
NU33.0 #232VT35.5 #883-point attempt rate
NU34.0 #296VT39.7 #179Free throw rate
NU33.9 #213VT34.0 #209Possessions
Turnover rate
NU13.1 #6VT14.9 #60Offensive rebound rate
NU28.1 #260VT31.9 #129Assists per game
NU17.2 #18VT14.4 #122Defense
Points allowed
NU72.0 #106VT74.9 #184Points allowed per possession
NU1.09 #210VT1.07 #141Opponent effective FG%
NU51.0 #157VT50.9 #147Opponent 3-point %
NU33.4 #145VT30.6 #26Turnovers forced
NU17.5 #120VT17.3 #131Defensive rebound rate
NU65.3 #332VT67.4 #284Steals per game
NU5.8 #256VT6.4 #187Blocks per game
NU3.6 #131VT3.2 #190| NU | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 73.2 #220 | Points per game | 78.8 #85 |
| 1.12 #100 | Points per possession | 1.13 #89 |
| 65.5 #328 | Pace (possessions) | 69.8 #127 |
| Shooting | ||
| 51.7 #159 | Effective FG% | 52.2 #134 |
| 33.0 #232 | 3-point % | 35.5 #88 |
| 34.0 #296 | 3-point attempt rate | 39.7 #179 |
| 33.9 #213 | Free throw rate | 34.0 #209 |
| Possessions | ||
| 13.1 #6 | Turnover rate | 14.9 #60 |
| 28.1 #260 | Offensive rebound rate | 31.9 #129 |
| 17.2 #18 | Assists per game | 14.4 #122 |
| Defense | ||
| 72.0 #106 | Points allowed | 74.9 #184 |
| 1.09 #210 | Points allowed per possession | 1.07 #141 |
| 51.0 #157 | Opponent effective FG% | 50.9 #147 |
| 33.4 #145 | Opponent 3-point % | 30.6 #26 |
| 17.5 #120 | Turnovers forced | 17.3 #131 |
| 65.3 #332 | Defensive rebound rate | 67.4 #284 |
| 5.8 #256 | Steals per game | 6.4 #187 |
| 3.6 #131 | Blocks per game | 3.2 #190 |
Northwestern
15-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Purdue68–81
- Wvs Indiana74–61
- Wvs Penn State76–66
- L@ Minnesota66–67
- Lvs Purdue66–70
A week or more of rest.
Virginia Tech
19-13 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Wake Forest89–95
- L@ Virginia72–76
- Wvs Boston College72–63
- L@ North Carolina82–89
- Wvs Wake Forest82–63
A week or more of rest.