SIU Edwardsville Cougars at Indiana State Sycamores: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETHulman Center · at Indiana St

#257SIUESIUE

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SIUE and Indiana St
SIUE	This season	INST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects INST 74–69 · win probability INST 67%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SIUE has more of the edges

SIUE 4, INST 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

SIUE has played the 365th-hardest schedule, INST the 149th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SIUEBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SIUE 17.9%, INST 19.5%. Forced: SIUE 17.1%, INST 14.9%

SIUESmall

Three-pointers

SIUE hits 35.0% and allows 30.2%; INST hits 31.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 36.2% and 45.2% of their shots

SIUESmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SIUE 52%, INST 0%. Transfers in: SIUE 2, INST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: SIUE plays 66.1 a game (306th fastest), INST 69.7 (131st). Faster games mean more points

SIUESmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SIUE 30.1%, INST 26.2%. Defensive: SIUE 68.4%, INST 68.2%

INSTSmall

SIUE offense vs INST defense

Offense 329th of 366 against a defense 267th, on the model’s ratings

INSTSmall

Home court

INST at home. This season: INST 0-0 at home, SIUE 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SIUE 30.6, INST 27.4. Allowed: SIUE 34.3, INST 28.7

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: SIUE 49.5 and allows 45.6; INST 52.8 and allows 50.2

Even

INST offense vs SIUE defense

Offense 162nd of 366 against a defense 161st, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	INST -5.1	—
Total	—	142.6	—
Projected score	—	SIUE 68.8 · INST 73.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	INST -2.9	—
1H total	66.7	—
1H projected score	SIUE 31.9 · INST 34.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SIUE LLWWL	15-14	52%	9-6	—
INST LLLWW	18-12	60%	7-6	—

Venue/role: SIUE away; INST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SIUE UUUUO	11-18	38%	16-13
INST OOUUU	13-17	43%	9-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SIUE	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
INST	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SIUE

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs DEN	W77–74WU
Dec 9	vs UND	No recent meeting

Indiana St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs USI	W77–55WU
Dec 12	@ ORE	No recent meeting
Dec 15	@ UIC	W79–63WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SIUE 1–1 INSTSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · SIUE 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 10, 2025-26	INST 64 @ SIUE 55	SIUE -2.5	INST W
Nov 12, 2024-25	SIUE 77 @ INST 72	INST -6.5	SIUE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SIUE

29 games played

Straight up

16-13

55% wins

Against the spread

15-14

52% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-18

38% overs · avg −4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1355%

W L W L L W W L L W W L W L L W W W L W W W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1452%

W L W W L W W L L L L L W L W W W L L W W W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-1838%

U U U O O O U O O U U O U O U U U U O U O U U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@UTSA	W 77-60	+6.5	W +23.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 10	vsINST	L 55-64	-2.5	L −11.5	159.5	U 119
Nov 14	@DRKE	W 61-59	+7.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 120
Nov 17	@WIS	L 69-94	+25.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 163
Nov 21	@AF	L 63-77	-2.5	L −16.5	130.5	O 140
Nov 23	vsALST	W 83-68	-1.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 151
Dec 2	@UNF	W 72-63	-7.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 135
Dec 6	vsWMU	L 73-83	-5.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 156
Dec 18	@EIU	L 72-76	-6.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 148
Dec 22	@WIU	W 66-61	-6.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 127
Jan 1	vsUSI	W 59-55	-10.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 114
Jan 3	vsMORE	L 72-73	-4.5	L −5.5	131.5	O 145
Jan 6	vsLIN	W 66-62	-1.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 128
Jan 8	vsLR	L 70-73	-3.5	L −6.5	131.5	O 143
Jan 15	@UTM	L 59-65	+7.5	W +1.5	131.5	U 124
Jan 17	@SEMO	W 68-55	+9.5	W +22.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 22	vsTNST	W 74-66	-1.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsTNTC	W 62-58	-7.5	L −3.5	135.5	U 120
Jan 29	@MORE	L 65-67	+1.5	L −0.5	130.5	O 132
Jan 31	@USI	W 58-46	-1.5	W +10.5	130.5	U 104
Feb 3	@LIN	W 78-72	+4.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 7	@LR	W 71-61	+1.5	W +11.5	132.5	U 132
Feb 12	vsSEMO	W 74-56	+1.5	W +19.5	137.5	U 130
Feb 14	vsUTM	L 76-81	+1.5	L −3.5	129.5	O 157
Feb 19	@TNTC	L 52-62	-1.5	L −11.5	134.5	U 114
Feb 21	@TNST	L 53-80	+2.5	L −24.5	143.5	U 133
Feb 26	vsWIU	W 67-47	-13.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 114
Feb 28	vsEIU	W 77-50	-5.5	W +21.5	129.5	U 127
Mar 4	vsEIU	L 71-77	-3.5	L −9.5	128.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTSA

W 77-60

+23.5

INST

L 55-64

−11.5

DRKE

W 61-59

+9.5

WIS

L 69-94

+0.5

L 63-77

−16.5

ALST

W 83-68

+13.5

UNF

W 72-63

+1.5

WMU

L 73-83

−15.5

EIU

L 72-76

−10.5

WIU

W 66-61

−1.5

USI

W 59-55

−6.5

L 72-73

−5.5

LIN

W 66-62

+2.5

L 70-73

−6.5

UTM

L 59-65

+1.5

SEMO

W 68-55

+22.5

TNST

W 74-66

+6.5

TNTC

W 62-58

−3.5

L 65-67

−0.5

USI

W 58-46

+10.5

LIN

W 78-72

+10.5

W 71-61

+11.5

SEMO

W 74-56

+19.5

UTM

L 76-81

−3.5

TNTC

L 52-62

−11.5

TNST

L 53-80

−24.5

WIU

W 67-47

+6.5

EIU

W 77-50

+21.5

EIU

L 71-77

−9.5

covered 15didn’t cover 14avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTSA

W 77-60

−16.5

INST

L 55-64

−40.5

DRKE

W 61-59

−22.5

WIS

L 69-94

+16.5

L 63-77

+9.5

ALST

W 83-68

+8.5

UNF

W 72-63

−18.5

WMU

L 73-83

+16.5

EIU

L 72-76

+13.5

WIU

W 66-61

−11.5

USI

W 59-55

−22.5

L 72-73

+13.5

LIN

W 66-62

−14.5

L 70-73

+11.5

UTM

L 59-65

−7.5

SEMO

W 68-55

−16.5

TNST

W 74-66

−2.5

TNTC

W 62-58

−15.5

L 65-67

+1.5

USI

W 58-46

−26.5

LIN

W 78-72

+9.5

W 71-61

−0.5

SEMO

W 74-56

−7.5

UTM

L 76-81

+27.5

TNTC

L 52-62

−20.5

TNST

L 53-80

−10.5

WIU

W 67-47

−21.5

EIU

W 77-50

−2.5

EIU

L 71-77

+19.5

over 11under 18avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Indiana St

30 games played

Straight up

9-21

30% wins

Against the spread

18-12

60% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2130%

L W L W W L L W W L L W L L L W L L L L L W L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1260%

L W L W W W L W W L L W W W L W W W L W L W L W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

O U U U U O O U U O U O O U U O U U U O O O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLT	L 76-92	+4.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 10	@SIUE	W 64-55	+2.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 119
Nov 14	@DUKE	L 62-100	+37.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 162
Nov 19	vsLT	W 60-51	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 22	vsBALL	W 70-52	-7.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 26	@LT	L 73-75	+2.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsALCN	L 74-81	-12.5	L −19.5	152.5	O 155
Dec 7	vsUSI	W 77-55	-11.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 132
Dec 14	@MILW	W 70-68	+2.5	W +4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 18	vsBRAD	L 99-108	+5.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 207
Dec 21	@ILST	L 65-85	+13.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 150
Dec 29	vsBEL	W 81-80	+7.5	W +8.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 1	@UNI	L 66-75	+10.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 4	@DRKE	L 72-74	+6.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 146
Jan 10	vsEVAN	L 69-72	-7.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 14	vsILST	W 94-89	+6.5	W +11.5	148.5	O 183
Jan 17	@MUR	L 81-85	+11.5	W +7.5	167.5	U 166
Jan 21	@BRAD	L 68-75	+8.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 24	vsDRKE	L 62-76	-3.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 138
Jan 27	@UIC	L 74-76	+5.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 31	vsVAL	L 72-76	-2.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 3	@EVAN	W 84-63	-1.5	W +19.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 9	vsSIU	L 65-80	+1.5	L −13.5	146.5	U 145
Feb 12	vsMUR	L 72-74	+3.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 146
Feb 15	@VAL	L 75-76	+4.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsUNI	L 60-81	+5.5	L −15.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 21	@BEL	L 70-87	+12.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 157
Feb 25	@SIU	L 55-66	+8.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 121
Mar 1	vsUIC	W 79-63	+3.5	W +19.5	144.5	U 142
Mar 5	vsVAL	L 62-63	+2.5	W +1.5	140.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

−11.5

SIUE

W 64-55

+11.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−0.5

W 60-51

+5.5

BALL

W 70-52

+10.5

L 73-75

+0.5

ALCN

L 74-81

−19.5

USI

W 77-55

+10.5

MILW

W 70-68

+4.5

BRAD

L 99-108

−3.5

ILST

L 65-85

−6.5

BEL

W 81-80

+8.5

UNI

L 66-75

+1.5

DRKE

L 72-74

+4.5

EVAN

L 69-72

−10.5

ILST

W 94-89

+11.5

MUR

L 81-85

+7.5

BRAD

L 68-75

+1.5

DRKE

L 62-76

−17.5

UIC

L 74-76

+3.5

VAL

L 72-76

−6.5

EVAN

W 84-63

+19.5

SIU

L 65-80

−13.5

MUR

L 72-74

+1.5

VAL

L 75-76

+3.5

UNI

L 60-81

−15.5

BEL

L 70-87

−4.5

SIU

L 55-66

−2.5

UIC

W 79-63

+19.5

VAL

L 62-63

+1.5

covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

+15.5

SIUE

W 64-55

−40.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−1.5

W 60-51

−36.5

BALL

W 70-52

−32.5

L 73-75

+6.5

ALCN

L 74-81

+2.5

USI

W 77-55

−26.5

MILW

W 70-68

−21.5

BRAD

L 99-108

+56.5

ILST

L 65-85

−2.5

BEL

W 81-80

+1.5

UNI

L 66-75

+5.5

DRKE

L 72-74

−3.5

EVAN

L 69-72

−4.5

ILST

W 94-89

+34.5

MUR

L 81-85

−1.5

BRAD

L 68-75

−12.5

DRKE

L 62-76

−13.5

UIC

L 74-76

+2.5

VAL

L 72-76

+2.5

EVAN

W 84-63

+1.5

SIU

L 65-80

−1.5

MUR

L 72-74

−17.5

VAL

L 75-76

+5.5

UNI

L 60-81

+4.5

BEL

L 70-87

+0.5

SIU

L 55-66

−26.5

UIC

W 79-63

−2.5

VAL

L 62-63

−15.5

over 13under 17avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Indiana St has the better starters

Position by position: SIUE 0, Indiana St 2, even 3

SIUEBetterIndiana St

G G. Cobb TR9.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 3.6 ast Score 40

INSTSmall

G K. Gregory TR16.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 70

G T. King10.1 pts · 2.6 reb · 1 ast Score 66

Even

G M. White TR10.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 58

G J. Pickett4.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 7

INSTSmall

G M. Mitchell TR11.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 28

F G. Liberis7 pts · 4.8 reb · 1 ast Score 9

Even

G D. Paschal TR3.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 16

F D. Baker7.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

No call

G C. Puryear TR0.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

SIUEBetterIndiana St

SIUE offense329th of 366 · -10.6

INSTSmall

INST defense267th of 366 · -6.8

SIUE defense161st of 366 · -3.6

Even

INST offense162nd of 366 · -4.8

Backcourt-3.6 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-3.1 · 5 players

Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-1.5 · 4 players

INSTSmall

Bench-0.1 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestSIUE betterINST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SIUE

Guards

G. Cobb29 min · TRT. King22 minJ. Pickett20 minC. Efono9 minH. Alexander7 minD. McCaskillNew

Forwards

G. Liberis24 minD. Baker21 minI. Baganc2 minD. WilsonNewB. SohaibNewB. MillerNew

Centers

J. Martin1 min · TR

Indiana St

Guards

K. Gregory32 min · TRM. White31 min · TRM. Mitchell27 min · TRD. Paschal12 min · TRC. Puryear3 min · TRE. McQuillanNew

Forwards

A. Vlajic1 min · TRJ. CooperNewA. CalamitaNewK. LandNewK. SpeckmanNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SIUE67.7 #321

INST71.7 #254

Points per possession

SIUE1.02 #304

INST1.03 #295

Pace (possessions)

SIUE66.1 #306

INST69.7 #131

Shooting

Effective FG%

SIUE49.5 #266

INST52.8 #110

3-point %

SIUE35.0 #123

INST31.6 #305

3-point attempt rate

SIUE36.2 #246

INST45.2 #62

Free throw rate

SIUE30.6 #294

INST27.4 #349

Possessions

Turnover rate

SIUE17.9 #266

INST19.5 #338

Offensive rebound rate

SIUE30.1 #195

INST26.2 #317

Assists per game

SIUE12.4 #255

INST17.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

SIUE65.9 #13

INST75.1 #193

Points allowed per possession

SIUE1.00 #26

INST1.08 #161

Opponent effective FG%

SIUE45.6 #6

INST50.2 #110

Opponent 3-point %

SIUE30.2 #10

INST31.2 #37

Turnovers forced

SIUE17.1 #143

INST14.9 #299

Defensive rebound rate

SIUE68.4 #235

INST68.2 #245

Steals per game

SIUE6.9 #138

INST6.0 #242

Blocks per game

SIUE4.0 #70

INST3.3 #176

SIUE		INST
Scoring
67.7 #321	Points per game	71.7 #254
1.02 #304	Points per possession	1.03 #295
66.1 #306	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #131
Shooting
49.5 #266	Effective FG%	52.8 #110
35.0 #123	3-point %	31.6 #305
36.2 #246	3-point attempt rate	45.2 #62
30.6 #294	Free throw rate	27.4 #349
Possessions
17.9 #266	Turnover rate	19.5 #338
30.1 #195	Offensive rebound rate	26.2 #317
12.4 #255	Assists per game	17.1 #22
Defense
65.9 #13	Points allowed	75.1 #193
1.00 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #161
45.6 #6	Opponent effective FG%	50.2 #110
30.2 #10	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #37
17.1 #143	Turnovers forced	14.9 #299
68.4 #235	Defensive rebound rate	68.2 #245
6.9 #138	Steals per game	6.0 #242
4.0 #70	Blocks per game	3.3 #176

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SIUE

16-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs E Illinois71–77
Wvs E Illinois77–50
Wvs W Illinois67–47
L@ Tennessee St53–80
L@ Tennessee Tech52–62

A week or more of rest.

Indiana St

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-17 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Valparaiso62–63
Wvs UIC79–63
L@ S Illinois55–66
L@ Belmont70–87
Lvs Northern Iowa60–81

A week or more of rest.

SIU Edwardsville Cougars at Indiana State Sycamores

What could decide it: SIUE has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SIUE

Indiana St

Indiana St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SIUE

Indiana St