Rhode Island Rams vs Liberty Flames: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 4:30 PM ETColonial Hall · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rhode Island and Liberty
URI	This season	LIB
0-0	Record	0-1
0-0	ATS	0-1
0-0	O/U	0-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects URI 73–67 · win probability URI 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LIB has more of the edges

URI 2, LIB 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

URIBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: URI 31.0%, LIB 19.3%. Defensive: URI 68.2%, LIB 66.9%

URIBig

LIB offense vs URI defense

Offense 202nd of 366 against a defense 86th, on the model’s ratings

LIBSmall

Three-pointers

URI hits 31.1% and allows 34.7%; LIB hits 38.6% and allows 37.7%. Threes are 43.5% and 47.7% of their shots

LIBSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: URI 19.1%, LIB 13.4%. Forced: URI 21.2%, LIB 17.0%

LIBSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: URI 38.4, LIB 31.4. Allowed: URI 42.6, LIB 27.0

LIBSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: URI 50.1 and allows 50.4; LIB 59.1 and allows 52.7

Context

Schedule so far

URI has played the 117th-hardest schedule, LIB the 148th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: URI plays 66.5 a game (293rd fastest), LIB 65.1 (343rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

URI offense vs LIB defense

Offense 123rd of 366 against a defense 138th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: URI 46%, LIB 47%. Transfers in: URI 3, LIB 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	URI -6.0	—
Total	—	139.9	—
Projected score	—	URI 73 · LIB 66.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	URI -3.7	—
1H total	65.5	—
1H projected score	URI 34.6 · LIB 30.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
URI LLWLL	13-19	41%	2-3	—
LIB LWLWL	13-18	42%	0-4	—

Venue/role: URI neutral site; LIB neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
URI OUUUU	14-18	44%	16-16
LIB OUOOU	18-13	58%	23-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
URI	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
LIB	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rhode Island

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs UAB	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs BRWN	W66–56LU
Dec 5	vs PROV	L71–90LO

Liberty

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs RICH	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs PRIN	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs STMN	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rhode Island

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

W L W W W L W W W L L W W L L L W L W W W L W L L W L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1941%

W L W W W L W W L L L L L L L L W L W W W L L W L W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1844%

O U U U O U O O U O U U O U U O U O U O O U O U O O U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSTET	W 93-62	-18.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 7	vsTLSA	L 65-82	-3.5	L −20.5	153.5	U 147
Nov 11	vsSTO	W 80-57	-16.5	W +6.5	151.5	U 137
Nov 14	vsUALB	W 80-61	-15.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 18	@YALE	W 86-77	+8.5	W +17.5	153.5	O 163
Nov 24	vsTOW	L 55-62	-2.5	L −9.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 25	vsUVM	W 80-65	-4.5	W +10.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 26	vsTEM	W 90-75	-3.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 2	vsBRWN	W 66-56	-13.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 122
Dec 6	@PROV	L 71-90	+7.5	L −11.5	159.5	O 161
Dec 9	vsMCN	L 64-66	+1.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 16	vsCAN	W 62-45	-21.5	L −4.5	138.5	U 107
Dec 22	vsNE	W 85-77	-10.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 162
Dec 31	vsLUC	L 57-61	-9.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 3	@GMU	L 50-61	+6.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 111
Jan 7	vsLAS	L 72-79	-11.5	L −18.5	135.5	O 151
Jan 10	@DAV	W 70-45	+2.5	W +27.5	134.5	U 115
Jan 14	vsVCU	L 75-84	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 21	@RICH	W 69-68	+3.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 24	vsGMU	W 74-65	+1.5	W +10.5	135.5	O 139
Jan 27	@DAY	W 81-76	+9.5	W +14.5	138.5	O 157
Feb 1	@DUQ	L 61-76	+2.5	L −12.5	146.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsRICH	W 82-77	-5.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 159
Feb 10	@GW	L 70-75	+5.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 14	vsFOR	L 66-70	-4.5	L −8.5	134.5	O 136
Feb 17	vsSLU	W 81-76	+9.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 157
Feb 21	@LAS	L 46-59	-3.5	L −16.5	135.5	U 105
Feb 26	@SBU	L 76-94	+2.5	L −15.5	144.5	O 170
Feb 28	vsJOES	L 55-61	-2.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 116
Mar 4	vsDUQ	W 64-52	-2.5	W +9.5	143.5	U 116
Mar 7	@FOR	L 49-61	+1.5	L −10.5	136.5	U 110
Mar 12	vsDUQ	L 61-67	+1.5	L −4.5	138.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STET

W 93-62

+12.5

TLSA

L 65-82

−20.5

STO

W 80-57

+6.5

UALB

W 80-61

+3.5

YALE

W 86-77

+17.5

TOW

L 55-62

−9.5

UVM

W 80-65

+10.5

TEM

W 90-75

+11.5

BRWN

W 66-56

−3.5

PROV

L 71-90

−11.5

MCN

L 64-66

−0.5

CAN

W 62-45

−4.5

W 85-77

−2.5

LUC

L 57-61

−13.5

GMU

L 50-61

−4.5

LAS

L 72-79

−18.5

DAV

W 70-45

+27.5

VCU

L 75-84

−5.5

RICH

W 69-68

+4.5

GMU

W 74-65

+10.5

DAY

W 81-76

+14.5

DUQ

L 61-76

−12.5

RICH

W 82-77

−0.5

L 70-75

+0.5

FOR

L 66-70

−8.5

SLU

W 81-76

+14.5

LAS

L 46-59

−16.5

SBU

L 76-94

−15.5

JOES

L 55-61

−8.5

DUQ

W 64-52

+9.5

FOR

L 49-61

−10.5

DUQ

L 61-67

−4.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STET

W 93-62

+2.5

TLSA

L 65-82

−6.5

STO

W 80-57

−14.5

UALB

W 80-61

−9.5

YALE

W 86-77

+9.5

TOW

L 55-62

−23.5

UVM

W 80-65

+0.5

TEM

W 90-75

+15.5

BRWN

W 66-56

−16.5

PROV

L 71-90

+1.5

MCN

L 64-66

−16.5

CAN

W 62-45

−31.5

W 85-77

+17.5

LUC

L 57-61

−27.5

GMU

L 50-61

−28.5

LAS

L 72-79

+15.5

DAV

W 70-45

−19.5

VCU

L 75-84

+11.5

RICH

W 69-68

−7.5

GMU

W 74-65

+3.5

DAY

W 81-76

+18.5

DUQ

L 61-76

−9.5

RICH

W 82-77

+16.5

L 70-75

−6.5

FOR

L 66-70

+1.5

SLU

W 81-76

+5.5

LAS

L 46-59

−30.5

SBU

L 76-94

+25.5

JOES

L 55-61

−25.5

DUQ

W 64-52

−27.5

FOR

L 49-61

−26.5

DUQ

L 61-67

−10.5

over 14under 18avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Liberty

31 games played

Straight up

23-8

74% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-874%

W W W L L W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1842%

W W L L L W L W L W L W W L L W W W L L L W L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1358%

O O O O U U U U O U O U O U O U U O O O O U O O U O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsCOFC	W 90-75	-9.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 165
Nov 9	vsFAU	W 88-68	-7.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsUVM	W 79-73	-8.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTOW	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 26	vsBRAD	L 64-74	-4.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 6	vsCOPP	W 92-50	-30.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 10	@NCSU	L 45-85	+12.5	L −27.5	149.5	U 130
Dec 20	@DAY	W 64-61	+9.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 125
Dec 28	@FIU	W 97-94	-4.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 191
Jan 2	vsKENN	W 81-73	-7.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 154
Jan 4	vsJXST	W 78-69	-9.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 8	@LT	W 72-56	-4.5	W +11.5	135.5	U 128
Jan 10	@SHSU	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsNMSU	W 73-71	-8.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsUTEP	W 80-69	-13.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 149
Jan 21	@WKU	W 76-69	-1.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 145
Jan 24	vsDEL	W 67-51	-15.5	W +0.5	134.5	U 118
Jan 29	@MTSU	W 81-65	-1.5	W +14.5	136.5	O 146
Feb 4	@DEL	W 75-69	-10.5	L −4.5	132.5	O 144
Feb 7	vsMOST	W 79-76	-9.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 155
Feb 11	@NMSU	W 77-75	-3.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 14	@UTEP	W 73-64	-6.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 137
Feb 19	vsFIU	W 90-89	-9.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 179
Feb 21	vsWKU	L 73-94	-7.5	L −28.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 26	@KENN	L 65-74	-1.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 139
Feb 28	@JXST	W 81-78	-3.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsLT	L 71-76	-8.5	L −13.5	136.5	O 147
Mar 7	vsSHSU	W 79-72	-4.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 151
Mar 11	vsMOST	L 69-77	-4.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 146
Mar 17	@GMU	W 77-71	+2.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 21	@NEV	L 63-73	+7.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+5.5

FAU

W 88-68

+12.5

UVM

W 79-73

−2.5

TOW

L 69-72

−9.5

BRAD

L 64-74

−14.5

COPP

W 92-50

+11.5

NCSU

L 45-85

−27.5

DAY

W 64-61

+12.5

FIU

W 97-94

−1.5

KENN

W 81-73

+0.5

JXST

W 78-69

−0.5

W 72-56

+11.5

SHSU

W 82-74

+6.5

NMSU

W 73-71

−6.5

UTEP

W 80-69

−2.5

WKU

W 76-69

+5.5

DEL

W 67-51

+0.5

MTSU

W 81-65

+14.5

DEL

W 75-69

−4.5

MOST

W 79-76

−6.5

NMSU

W 77-75

−1.5

UTEP

W 73-64

+2.5

FIU

W 90-89

−8.5

WKU

L 73-94

−28.5

KENN

L 65-74

−10.5

JXST

W 81-78

−0.5

L 71-76

−13.5

SHSU

W 79-72

+2.5

MOST

L 69-77

−12.5

GMU

W 77-71

+8.5

NEV

L 63-73

−2.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+19.5

FAU

W 88-68

+3.5

UVM

W 79-73

+10.5

TOW

L 69-72

+3.5

BRAD

L 64-74

−6.5

COPP

W 92-50

−1.5

NCSU

L 45-85

−19.5

DAY

W 64-61

−17.5

FIU

W 97-94

+38.5

KENN

W 81-73

−4.5

JXST

W 78-69

+12.5

W 72-56

−7.5

SHSU

W 82-74

+1.5

NMSU

W 73-71

−1.5

UTEP

W 80-69

+11.5

WKU

W 76-69

−3.5

DEL

W 67-51

−16.5

MTSU

W 81-65

+9.5

DEL

W 75-69

+11.5

MOST

W 79-76

+14.5

NMSU

W 77-75

+7.5

UTEP

W 73-64

−2.5

FIU

W 90-89

+26.5

WKU

L 73-94

+19.5

KENN

L 65-74

−13.5

JXST

W 81-78

+19.5

L 71-76

+10.5

SHSU

W 79-72

−1.5

MOST

L 69-77

+3.5

GMU

W 77-71

+6.5

NEV

L 63-73

−10.5

over 18under 13avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rhode Island has the better starters

Position by position: Rhode Island 2, Liberty 0, even 3

Rhode IslandBetterLiberty

G D. Williamson TR14.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 63

Even

G C. Campbell TR12.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 67

G J. Hinton12.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 51

Even

G E. Sancomb10 pts · 6 reb · 4 ast Score 55

G J. Fontenet TR6.8 pts · 5 reb · 1.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G C. Campbell TR9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 31

G J. Tripp12 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 90

URIBig

G Z. Carter2.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 27

F M. Deniusas TR12.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 70

URISmall

F D. Claussen2 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 50

Rhode IslandBetterLiberty

URI offense123rd of 366 · -3.2

Even

LIB defense138th of 366 · -2.9

URI defense86th of 366 · -0.0

URISmall

LIB offense202nd of 366 · -6.3

Backcourt-0.7 · 4 players

URISmall

Backcourt-2.8 · 4 players

Frontcourt+0.9 · 1 player

URISmall

Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player

Bench-0.5 · 3 players

Even

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestURI betterLIB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rhode Island

Guards

D. Williamson37 min · TRJ. Hinton32 minJ. Fontenet28 min · TRJ. Tripp25 minJ. Harper12 minB. Loer4 min

Forwards

M. Deniusas27 min · TRM. Sow20 minJ. PerryNewN. RaupelisNewT. MartinNewD. MabilonNew

Liberty

Guards

C. Campbell35 min · TRE. Sancomb34 minC. Campbell29 min · TRZ. Carter12 minM. SheltonNewE. HerbertNew

Forwards

D. Claussen33 minR. Jones5 minB. Kester3 minD. Grimes3 minT. Drain2 minT. Sorensen2 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

URI69.9 #288

LIB75.8 #146

Points per possession

URI1.05 #255

LIB1.17 #41

Pace (possessions)

URI66.5 #293

LIB65.1 #343

Shooting

Effective FG%

URI50.1 #231

LIB59.1 #4

3-point %

URI31.1 #318

LIB38.6 #8

3-point attempt rate

URI43.5 #103

LIB47.7 #28

Free throw rate

URI38.4 #92

LIB31.4 #273

Possessions

Turnover rate

URI19.1 #326

LIB13.4 #13

Offensive rebound rate

URI31.0 #163

LIB19.3 #365

Assists per game

URI11.3 #321

LIB16.5 #36

Defense

Points allowed

URI68.2 #33

LIB72.2 #110

Points allowed per possession

URI1.03 #53

LIB1.11 #234

Opponent effective FG%

URI50.4 #124

LIB52.7 #251

Opponent 3-point %

URI34.7 #232

LIB37.7 #353

Turnovers forced

URI21.2 #10

LIB17.0 #149

Defensive rebound rate

URI68.2 #248

LIB66.9 #302

Steals per game

URI8.4 #20

LIB6.2 #218

Blocks per game

URI3.7 #117

LIB3.3 #178

URI		LIB
Scoring
69.9 #288	Points per game	75.8 #146
1.05 #255	Points per possession	1.17 #41
66.5 #293	Pace (possessions)	65.1 #343
Shooting
50.1 #231	Effective FG%	59.1 #4
31.1 #318	3-point %	38.6 #8
43.5 #103	3-point attempt rate	47.7 #28
38.4 #92	Free throw rate	31.4 #273
Possessions
19.1 #326	Turnover rate	13.4 #13
31.0 #163	Offensive rebound rate	19.3 #365
11.3 #321	Assists per game	16.5 #36
Defense
68.2 #33	Points allowed	72.2 #110
1.03 #53	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #234
50.4 #124	Opponent effective FG%	52.7 #251
34.7 #232	Opponent 3-point %	37.7 #353
21.2 #10	Turnovers forced	17.0 #149
68.2 #248	Defensive rebound rate	66.9 #302
8.4 #20	Steals per game	6.2 #218
3.7 #117	Blocks per game	3.3 #178

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rhode Island

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Duquesne61–67
L@ Fordham49–61
Wvs Duquesne64–52
Lvs Saint Joseph's55–61
L@ St Bonaventure76–94

A week or more of rest.

Liberty

23-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Nevada63–73
W@ George Mason77–71
Lvs Missouri St69–77
Wvs Sam Houston79–72
Lvs Louisiana Tech71–76

A week or more of rest.

Rhode Island Rams vs Liberty Flames

What could decide it: LIB has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Rhode Island

Liberty

Rhode Island has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rhode Island

Liberty