Richmond Spiders vs Liberty Flames: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 22, 4:30 PM ETColonial Hall · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Richmond and Liberty
RICH	This season	LIB
0-0	Record	0-1
0-0	ATS	0-1
0-0	O/U	0-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects RICH 75–69 · win probability RICH 69%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: RICH has more of the edges

RICH 3, LIB 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

RICHBig

Three-pointers

RICH hits 37.1% and allows 32.7%; LIB hits 38.6% and allows 37.7%. Threes are 42.6% and 47.7% of their shots

RICHSmall

LIB offense vs RICH defense

Offense 202nd of 366 against a defense 105th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: RICH plays 68.8 a game (194th fastest), LIB 65.1 (343rd). Faster games mean more points

RICHSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RICH 25.0%, LIB 19.3%. Defensive: RICH 69.0%, LIB 66.9%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: RICH 52.7 and allows 52.0; LIB 59.1 and allows 52.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RICH 29%, LIB 47%. Transfers in: RICH 6, LIB 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

RICH offense vs LIB defense

Offense 113th of 366 against a defense 138th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

RICH has played the 125th-hardest schedule, LIB the 148th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RICH 14.3%, LIB 13.4%. Forced: RICH 17.8%, LIB 17.0%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: RICH 36.9, LIB 31.4. Allowed: RICH 35.1, LIB 27.0

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	RICH -5.5	—
Total	—	144.4	—
Projected score	—	RICH 75 · LIB 69.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	RICH -3.4	—
1H total	67.6	—
1H projected score	RICH 35.5 · LIB 32.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
RICH WLWWL	16-15	52%	0-3	—
LIB LWLWL	13-18	42%	0-4	—

Venue/role: RICH neutral site; LIB neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICH OUUOO	14-17	45%	14-17
LIB OUOOU	18-13	58%	23-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICH	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
LIB	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Richmond

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs BCU	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs VMI	W87–54WU
Dec 1	@ ECU	W87–72WO

Liberty

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs PRIN	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs STMN	No recent meeting
Nov 28	@ UNCW	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Richmond

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

16-15

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

W W W W L W W W W L W L L W W L W L L L L L L W L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1552%

W L W W L L W L W L W L L W W L W L L L W L W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

O O U O U U O O O U U U O O O U U U U U U U O O U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsECU	W 87-72	-5.5	W +9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsW&M	W 90-86	-9.5	L −5.5	164.5	O 176
Nov 19	vsVMI	W 87-54	-14.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	vsGWEB	W 102-67	-19.5	W +15.5	154.5	O 169
Nov 27	vsFUR	L 72-73	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 145
Nov 28	vsCLT	W 71-66	-6.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	@BEL	W 84-76	+6.5	W +14.5	156.5	O 160
Dec 6	vsODU	W 86-77	-12.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 163
Dec 13	vsSIU	W 93-84	-3.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 177
Dec 17	@ELON	L 70-73	-3.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 143
Dec 20	vsCIT	W 80-56	-18.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Dec 28	vsCHSO	L 72-77	-11.5	L −16.5	159.5	U 149
Dec 31	vsGW	L 85-99	+2.5	L −11.5	162.5	O 184
Jan 4	@FOR	W 83-75	-2.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 158
Jan 7	@SBU	W 89-80	+6.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Jan 11	vsJOES	L 65-67	-7.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 132
Jan 14	vsLAS	W 74-53	-8.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 127
Jan 17	@SLU	L 63-88	+14.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 151
Jan 21	vsURI	L 68-69	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 24	@GW	L 69-85	+10.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 154
Jan 27	@VCU	L 69-77	+12.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 146
Jan 31	vsDAV	L 54-79	-1.5	L −26.5	140.5	U 133
Feb 7	@URI	L 77-82	+5.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 159
Feb 10	vsGMU	W 82-70	+3.5	W +15.5	139.5	O 152
Feb 14	vsVCU	L 67-78	+7.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 145
Feb 18	@DAV	L 63-65	+5.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 128
Feb 21	vsSBU	W 99-94	-1.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 193
Feb 28	@LUC	L 66-69	-2.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 135
Mar 3	vsDAY	L 60-65	+5.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 125
Mar 7	@DUQ	L 77-79	+4.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 156
Mar 11	vsLUC	L 67-75	-4.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+9.5

W&M

W 90-86

−5.5

VMI

W 87-54

+18.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+15.5

FUR

L 72-73

−4.5

CLT

W 71-66

−1.5

BEL

W 84-76

+14.5

ODU

W 86-77

−3.5

SIU

W 93-84

+5.5

ELON

L 70-73

−6.5

CIT

W 80-56

+5.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−16.5

L 85-99

−11.5

FOR

W 83-75

+5.5

SBU

W 89-80

+15.5

JOES

L 65-67

−9.5

LAS

W 74-53

+12.5

SLU

L 63-88

−10.5

URI

L 68-69

−4.5

L 69-85

−5.5

VCU

L 69-77

+4.5

DAV

L 54-79

−26.5

URI

L 77-82

+0.5

GMU

W 82-70

+15.5

VCU

L 67-78

−3.5

DAV

L 63-65

+3.5

SBU

W 99-94

+3.5

LUC

L 66-69

−5.5

DAY

L 60-65

+0.5

DUQ

L 77-79

+2.5

LUC

L 67-75

−12.5

covered 16didn’t cover 15avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+15.5

W&M

W 90-86

+11.5

VMI

W 87-54

−11.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+14.5

FUR

L 72-73

−2.5

CLT

W 71-66

−4.5

BEL

W 84-76

+3.5

ODU

W 86-77

+9.5

SIU

W 93-84

+23.5

ELON

L 70-73

−18.5

CIT

W 80-56

−10.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−10.5

L 85-99

+21.5

FOR

W 83-75

+15.5

SBU

W 89-80

+15.5

JOES

L 65-67

−18.5

LAS

W 74-53

−20.5

SLU

L 63-88

−11.5

URI

L 68-69

−7.5

L 69-85

−5.5

VCU

L 69-77

−9.5

DAV

L 54-79

−7.5

URI

L 77-82

+16.5

GMU

W 82-70

+12.5

VCU

L 67-78

−9.5

DAV

L 63-65

−13.5

SBU

W 99-94

+45.5

LUC

L 66-69

−11.5

DAY

L 60-65

−19.5

DUQ

L 77-79

+8.5

LUC

L 67-75

+0.5

over 14under 17avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Liberty

31 games played

Straight up

23-8

74% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-874%

W W W L L W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1842%

W W L L L W L W L W L W W L L W W W L L L W L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1358%

O O O O U U U U O U O U O U O U U O O O O U O O U O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsCOFC	W 90-75	-9.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 165
Nov 9	vsFAU	W 88-68	-7.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsUVM	W 79-73	-8.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTOW	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 26	vsBRAD	L 64-74	-4.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 6	vsCOPP	W 92-50	-30.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 10	@NCSU	L 45-85	+12.5	L −27.5	149.5	U 130
Dec 20	@DAY	W 64-61	+9.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 125
Dec 28	@FIU	W 97-94	-4.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 191
Jan 2	vsKENN	W 81-73	-7.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 154
Jan 4	vsJXST	W 78-69	-9.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 8	@LT	W 72-56	-4.5	W +11.5	135.5	U 128
Jan 10	@SHSU	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsNMSU	W 73-71	-8.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsUTEP	W 80-69	-13.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 149
Jan 21	@WKU	W 76-69	-1.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 145
Jan 24	vsDEL	W 67-51	-15.5	W +0.5	134.5	U 118
Jan 29	@MTSU	W 81-65	-1.5	W +14.5	136.5	O 146
Feb 4	@DEL	W 75-69	-10.5	L −4.5	132.5	O 144
Feb 7	vsMOST	W 79-76	-9.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 155
Feb 11	@NMSU	W 77-75	-3.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 14	@UTEP	W 73-64	-6.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 137
Feb 19	vsFIU	W 90-89	-9.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 179
Feb 21	vsWKU	L 73-94	-7.5	L −28.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 26	@KENN	L 65-74	-1.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 139
Feb 28	@JXST	W 81-78	-3.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsLT	L 71-76	-8.5	L −13.5	136.5	O 147
Mar 7	vsSHSU	W 79-72	-4.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 151
Mar 11	vsMOST	L 69-77	-4.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 146
Mar 17	@GMU	W 77-71	+2.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 21	@NEV	L 63-73	+7.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+5.5

FAU

W 88-68

+12.5

UVM

W 79-73

−2.5

TOW

L 69-72

−9.5

BRAD

L 64-74

−14.5

COPP

W 92-50

+11.5

NCSU

L 45-85

−27.5

DAY

W 64-61

+12.5

FIU

W 97-94

−1.5

KENN

W 81-73

+0.5

JXST

W 78-69

−0.5

W 72-56

+11.5

SHSU

W 82-74

+6.5

NMSU

W 73-71

−6.5

UTEP

W 80-69

−2.5

WKU

W 76-69

+5.5

DEL

W 67-51

+0.5

MTSU

W 81-65

+14.5

DEL

W 75-69

−4.5

MOST

W 79-76

−6.5

NMSU

W 77-75

−1.5

UTEP

W 73-64

+2.5

FIU

W 90-89

−8.5

WKU

L 73-94

−28.5

KENN

L 65-74

−10.5

JXST

W 81-78

−0.5

L 71-76

−13.5

SHSU

W 79-72

+2.5

MOST

L 69-77

−12.5

GMU

W 77-71

+8.5

NEV

L 63-73

−2.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+19.5

FAU

W 88-68

+3.5

UVM

W 79-73

+10.5

TOW

L 69-72

+3.5

BRAD

L 64-74

−6.5

COPP

W 92-50

−1.5

NCSU

L 45-85

−19.5

DAY

W 64-61

−17.5

FIU

W 97-94

+38.5

KENN

W 81-73

−4.5

JXST

W 78-69

+12.5

W 72-56

−7.5

SHSU

W 82-74

+1.5

NMSU

W 73-71

−1.5

UTEP

W 80-69

+11.5

WKU

W 76-69

−3.5

DEL

W 67-51

−16.5

MTSU

W 81-65

+9.5

DEL

W 75-69

+11.5

MOST

W 79-76

+14.5

NMSU

W 77-75

+7.5

UTEP

W 73-64

−2.5

FIU

W 90-89

+26.5

WKU

L 73-94

+19.5

KENN

L 65-74

−13.5

JXST

W 81-78

+19.5

L 71-76

+10.5

SHSU

W 79-72

−1.5

MOST

L 69-77

+3.5

GMU

W 77-71

+6.5

NEV

L 63-73

−10.5

over 18under 13avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Richmond has the better starters

Position by position: Richmond 2, Liberty 1, even 2

RichmondBetterLiberty

G D. Saran TR11.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 52

LIBSmall

G C. Campbell TR12.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 67

G A. Argabright10.8 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 87

RICHSmall

G E. Sancomb10 pts · 6 reb · 4 ast Score 55

G D. Stewart TR6.6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 44

Even

G C. Campbell TR9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 31

F J. Kaiser TR9.5 pts · 4.3 reb · 1 ast Score 60

RICHSmall

G Z. Carter2.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 27

C A. Dorries TR16.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 62

Even

F D. Claussen2 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 50

RichmondBetterLiberty

RICH offense113th of 366 · -2.0

Even

LIB defense138th of 366 · -2.9

RICH defense105th of 366 · -1.0

RICHSmall

LIB offense202nd of 366 · -6.3

Backcourt+0.4 · 3 players

RICHBig

Backcourt-2.8 · 4 players

Frontcourt+1.5 · 2 players

RICHSmall

Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestRICH betterLIB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Richmond

Guards

D. Saran30 min · TRA. Argabright24 minD. Stewart23 min · TRC. Tanner18 minW. Harper11 minK. Mooney5 min

Forwards

J. Kaiser29 min · TRA. Ball21 min · TRJ. McCaffery10 min · TRC. CookNewD. CaldwellNew

Centers

A. Dorries33 min · TRD. HomenickNew

Liberty

Guards

C. Campbell35 min · TRE. Sancomb34 minC. Campbell29 min · TRZ. Carter12 minM. SheltonNewE. HerbertNew

Forwards

D. Claussen33 minR. Jones5 minB. Kester3 minD. Grimes3 minT. Drain2 minT. Sorensen2 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RICH76.5 #132

LIB75.8 #146

Points per possession

RICH1.11 #119

LIB1.17 #41

Pace (possessions)

RICH68.8 #194

LIB65.1 #343

Shooting

Effective FG%

RICH52.7 #115

LIB59.1 #4

3-point %

RICH37.1 #28

LIB38.6 #8

3-point attempt rate

RICH42.6 #126

LIB47.7 #28

Free throw rate

RICH36.9 #133

LIB31.4 #273

Possessions

Turnover rate

RICH14.3 #32

LIB13.4 #13

Offensive rebound rate

RICH25.0 #340

LIB19.3 #365

Assists per game

RICH14.0 #145

LIB16.5 #36

Defense

Points allowed

RICH74.5 #175

LIB72.2 #110

Points allowed per possession

RICH1.09 #183

LIB1.11 #234

Opponent effective FG%

RICH52.0 #216

LIB52.7 #251

Opponent 3-point %

RICH32.7 #103

LIB37.7 #353

Turnovers forced

RICH17.8 #111

LIB17.0 #149

Defensive rebound rate

RICH69.0 #200

LIB66.9 #302

Steals per game

RICH6.8 #139

LIB6.2 #218

Blocks per game

RICH2.3 #323

LIB3.3 #178

RICH		LIB
Scoring
76.5 #132	Points per game	75.8 #146
1.11 #119	Points per possession	1.17 #41
68.8 #194	Pace (possessions)	65.1 #343
Shooting
52.7 #115	Effective FG%	59.1 #4
37.1 #28	3-point %	38.6 #8
42.6 #126	3-point attempt rate	47.7 #28
36.9 #133	Free throw rate	31.4 #273
Possessions
14.3 #32	Turnover rate	13.4 #13
25.0 #340	Offensive rebound rate	19.3 #365
14.0 #145	Assists per game	16.5 #36
Defense
74.5 #175	Points allowed	72.2 #110
1.09 #183	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #234
52.0 #216	Opponent effective FG%	52.7 #251
32.7 #103	Opponent 3-point %	37.7 #353
17.8 #111	Turnovers forced	17.0 #149
69.0 #200	Defensive rebound rate	66.9 #302
6.8 #139	Steals per game	6.2 #218
2.3 #323	Blocks per game	3.3 #178

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Richmond

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Loyola Chicago67–75
L@ Duquesne77–79
Lvs Dayton60–65
L@ Loyola Chicago66–69
Wvs St Bonaventure99–94

A week or more of rest.

Liberty

23-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Nevada63–73
W@ George Mason77–71
Lvs Missouri St69–77
Wvs Sam Houston79–72
Lvs Louisiana Tech71–76

A week or more of rest.

Richmond Spiders vs Liberty Flames

What could decide it: RICH has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Richmond

Liberty

Richmond has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Richmond

Liberty