UC Irvine Anteaters vs Loyola Marymount Lions: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 22, 4:30 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

#121LMULMU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UC Irvine and LMU
UCI	This season	LMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LMU 71–70 · win probability LMU 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCI has more of the edges

UCI 3, LMU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UCIBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UCI 36.0, LMU 31.1. Allowed: UCI 26.7, LMU 32.5

UCISmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UCI 30.9%, LMU 26.7%. Defensive: UCI 68.8%, LMU 68.0%

Context

Schedule so far

UCI has played the 215th-hardest schedule, LMU the 131st. A record against a soft schedule means less

LMUSmall

UCI offense vs LMU defense

Offense 187th of 366 against a defense 104th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: UCI plays 71.5 a game (51st fastest), LMU 68.9 (185th). Faster games mean more points

UCISmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UCI 17.8%, LMU 17.4%. Forced: UCI 18.8%, LMU 16.6%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UCI 44%, LMU 22%. Transfers in: UCI 2, LMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UCI 49.5 and allows 45.9; LMU 51.9 and allows 48.9

Even

LMU offense vs UCI defense

Offense 152nd of 366 against a defense 126th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Three-pointers

UCI hits 33.6% and allows 33.7%; LMU hits 34.8% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 28.0% and 40.4% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LMU -1.1	—
Total	—	141.6	—
Projected score	—	UCI 70.2 · LMU 71.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LMU -0.5	—
1H total	66.3	—
1H projected score	UCI 32.9 · LMU 33.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UCI WWWLL	17-16	52%	4-2	—
LMU LWLLL	14-17	45%	1-2	—

Venue/role: UCI neutral site; LMU neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCI OOOUU	12-21	36%	21-12
LMU OUUOU	15-16	48%	14-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCI	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
LMU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UC Irvine

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ SEA	No recent meeting
Dec 3	vs UCR	W80–66WO
Dec 5	vs UCSD	L69–71LU

LMU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs EWU	W70–62LU
Nov 28	@ UCSD	L57–67LU
Dec 4	vs HAW	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UCI 2–0 LMUUCI leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · UCI has won the last 2 meetings · UCI 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2024-25	UCI 66 @ LMU 51	LMU +1.5	UCI W
Nov 15, 2022-23	LMU 64 @ UCI 79	UCI -4.5	UCI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UC Irvine

33 games played

Straight up

21-12

64% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-21

36% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1264%

L W L L L W W W W L W W W W W L L W W W W L L W W L W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1652%

L L L L L W W L W L W W L W L W L W W W L L L W W L W W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2136%

U U O O U U U U O U O O O U U U U O U O U O U U U U U U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsCBU	L 61-69	-8.5	L −16.5	147.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsWEB	W 79-70	-11.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 149
Nov 19	@UVU	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 22	vsUNI	L 69-70	-2.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 139
Nov 25	vsNMSU	L 45-57	-2.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 102
Nov 26	vsSDST	W 64-52	-2.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 116
Nov 30	@SJSU	W 72-63	-3.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 4	vsUCR	W 73-60	-13.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 6	vsCSUN	W 85-71	-7.5	W +6.5	152.5	O 156
Dec 19	vsBEL	L 58-84	-1.5	L −27.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 21	vsNDSU	W 74-73	+1.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 22	vsNORF	W 89-70	-11.5	W +7.5	136.5	O 159
Jan 1	@CSUB	W 81-77	-11.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 158
Jan 3	@CSUF	W 86-64	-3.5	W +18.5	160.5	U 150
Jan 8	vsLBSU	W 74-64	-10.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 138
Jan 10	@HAW	L 66-67	+4.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 17	@UCD	L 72-75	-3.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 147
Jan 22	@UCR	W 80-66	-8.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 146
Jan 24	@UCSD	W 61-59	+2.5	W +4.5	146.5	U 120
Jan 29	vsHAW	W 87-76	-1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 163
Feb 5	vsCSUB	W 78-62	-16.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 140
Feb 7	@UCSB	L 79-84	+2.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 163
Feb 12	@CP	L 73-79	-5.5	L −11.5	161.5	U 152
Feb 14	vsCSUF	W 86-65	-7.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 151
Feb 19	@LBSU	W 69-58	-5.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 127
Feb 21	vsUCSD	L 69-71	-3.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 140
Feb 26	@CSUN	W 68-67	+1.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 135
Feb 28	vsUCSB	W 64-60	-3.5	W +0.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 5	vsCP	W 107-85	-9.5	W +12.5	160.5	O 192
Mar 7	vsUCD	W 79-69	-7.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Mar 13	vsCSUN	W 93-78	-3.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 171
Mar 14	vsHAW	L 64-71	-1.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 135
Mar 17	vsUNLV	L 72-75	+1.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 61-69

−16.5

WEB

W 79-70

−2.5

UVU

L 72-79

−4.5

UNI

L 69-70

−3.5

NMSU

L 45-57

−14.5

SDST

W 64-52

+9.5

SJSU

W 72-63

+5.5

UCR

W 73-60

−0.5

CSUN

W 85-71

+6.5

BEL

L 58-84

−27.5

NDSU

W 74-73

+2.5

NORF

W 89-70

+7.5

CSUB

W 81-77

−7.5

CSUF

W 86-64

+18.5

LBSU

W 74-64

−0.5

HAW

L 66-67

+3.5

UCD

L 72-75

−6.5

UCR

W 80-66

+5.5

UCSD

W 61-59

+4.5

HAW

W 87-76

+9.5

CSUB

W 78-62

−0.5

UCSB

L 79-84

−2.5

L 73-79

−11.5

CSUF

W 86-65

+13.5

LBSU

W 69-58

+5.5

UCSD

L 69-71

−5.5

CSUN

W 68-67

+2.5

UCSB

W 64-60

+0.5

W 107-85

+12.5

UCD

W 79-69

+2.5

CSUN

W 93-78

+11.5

HAW

L 64-71

−8.5

UNLV

L 72-75

−1.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 61-69

−17.5

WEB

W 79-70

−2.5

UVU

L 72-79

+1.5

UNI

L 69-70

+0.5

NMSU

L 45-57

−37.5

SDST

W 64-52

−28.5

SJSU

W 72-63

−4.5

UCR

W 73-60

−9.5

CSUN

W 85-71

+3.5

BEL

L 58-84

−8.5

NDSU

W 74-73

+0.5

NORF

W 89-70

+22.5

CSUB

W 81-77

+14.5

CSUF

W 86-64

−10.5

LBSU

W 74-64

−4.5

HAW

L 66-67

−7.5

UCD

L 72-75

−1.5

UCR

W 80-66

+3.5

UCSD

W 61-59

−26.5

HAW

W 87-76

+18.5

CSUB

W 78-62

−4.5

UCSB

L 79-84

+21.5

L 73-79

−9.5

CSUF

W 86-65

−3.5

LBSU

W 69-58

−17.5

UCSD

L 69-71

−3.5

CSUN

W 68-67

−18.5

UCSB

W 64-60

−14.5

W 107-85

+31.5

UCD

W 79-69

+3.5

CSUN

W 93-78

+18.5

HAW

L 64-71

−6.5

UNLV

L 72-75

−6.5

over 12under 21avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

LMU

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

14-17

45% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

W W W W W L W L L L W W L W L L W L L L L L L W W L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1745%

L W W W W L W L L L W W W W W L W L L L L L L W W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1648%

U O U U O U U O O U O U O O O U O O O U U U O O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsEWU	W 70-62	-9.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsUAPB	W 94-72	-19.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@UTEP	W 71-58	+1.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 14	vsTROY	W 74-63	-4.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 137
Nov 17	@UCSB	W 78-74	+3.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 24	vsFAU	L 65-76	+3.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 141
Nov 25	vsOHIO	W 70-58	-3.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 128
Nov 28	vsSTBK	L 68-71	-10.5	L −13.5	138.5	O 139
Dec 2	vsSLU	L 70-91	+7.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 16	vsUCSD	L 57-67	+1.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 19	vsUNA	W 91-57	-10.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 148
Dec 23	vsMORG	W 83-56	-23.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 139
Dec 28	vsSMC	L 73-78	+9.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 151
Dec 30	vsPAC	W 80-71	-3.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 151
Jan 2	@WSU	L 76-78	+3.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 154
Jan 4	@GONZ	L 47-82	+25.5	L −9.5	154.5	U 129
Jan 8	vsSF	W 84-82	-1.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 166
Jan 10	@SCU	L 72-103	+11.5	L −19.5	153.5	O 175
Jan 14	@ORST	L 70-76	-1.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsPORT	L 58-71	-8.5	L −21.5	148.5	U 129
Jan 21	@SEA	L 59-69	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 28	vsORST	L 69-72	-5.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 31	vsSCU	L 73-104	+8.5	L −22.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 4	@SF	W 84-75	+8.5	W +17.5	145.5	O 159
Feb 7	vsUSD	W 83-63	-6.5	W +13.5	151.5	U 146
Feb 11	@PAC	L 59-65	+5.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 124
Feb 14	@PEPP	L 89-90	-5.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 21	@USD	W 77-65	-2.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 142
Feb 25	vsWSU	W 67-66	-1.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 133
Feb 28	vsSEA	L 66-71	-1.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 137
Mar 5	vsUSD	L 62-66	-5.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EWU

W 70-62

−1.5

UAPB

W 94-72

+2.5

UTEP

W 71-58

+14.5

TROY

W 74-63

+6.5

UCSB

W 78-74

+7.5

FAU

L 65-76

−7.5

OHIO

W 70-58

+8.5

STBK

L 68-71

−13.5

SLU

L 70-91

−13.5

UCSD

L 57-67

−8.5

UNA

W 91-57

+23.5

MORG

W 83-56

+3.5

SMC

L 73-78

+4.5

PAC

W 80-71

+5.5

WSU

L 76-78

+1.5

GONZ

L 47-82

−9.5

W 84-82

+0.5

SCU

L 72-103

−19.5

ORST

L 70-76

−7.5

PORT

L 58-71

−21.5

SEA

L 59-69

−5.5

ORST

L 69-72

−8.5

SCU

L 73-104

−22.5

W 84-75

+17.5

USD

W 83-63

+13.5

PAC

L 59-65

−0.5

PEPP

L 89-90

−6.5

USD

W 77-65

+9.5

WSU

W 67-66

−0.5

SEA

L 66-71

−6.5

USD

L 62-66

−9.5

covered 14didn’t cover 17avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EWU

W 70-62

−21.5

UAPB

W 94-72

+8.5

UTEP

W 71-58

−15.5

TROY

W 74-63

−3.5

UCSB

W 78-74

+6.5

FAU

L 65-76

−3.5

OHIO

W 70-58

−16.5

STBK

L 68-71

+0.5

SLU

L 70-91

+10.5

UCSD

L 57-67

−26.5

UNA

W 91-57

+7.5

MORG

W 83-56

−5.5

SMC

L 73-78

+7.5

PAC

W 80-71

+11.5

WSU

L 76-78

+11.5

GONZ

L 47-82

−25.5

W 84-82

+24.5

SCU

L 72-103

+21.5

ORST

L 70-76

+5.5

PORT

L 58-71

−19.5

SEA

L 59-69

−13.5

ORST

L 69-72

−0.5

SCU

L 73-104

+23.5

W 84-75

+13.5

USD

W 83-63

−5.5

PAC

L 59-65

−17.5

PEPP

L 89-90

+31.5

USD

W 77-65

−7.5

WSU

W 67-66

−16.5

SEA

L 66-71

+0.5

USD

L 62-66

−17.5

over 15under 16avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UC Irvine has the better starters

Position by position: UC Irvine 3, LMU 2, even 0

UC IrvineBetterLMU

G T. Isaac6 pts · 3.1 reb · 3.5 ast Score 17

LMUBig

G Z. Sensley TR10.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 72

G N. Cooper TR11.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 89

UCISmall

G A. Wright TR7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 2 ast Score 59

G J. Jester6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 63

UCIBig

F C. Humphrey-Rembert TR7.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 24

F H. Carrington7.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 84

UCISmall

F A. McBride7.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 50

F E. Chol4.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 28

LMUSmall

F D. Rivers TR8.6 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 48

UC IrvineBetterLMU

UCI offense187th of 366 · -5.8

LMUSmall

LMU defense104th of 366 · -1.0

UCI defense126th of 366 · -2.3

Even

LMU offense152nd of 366 · -4.6

Backcourt-0.5 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt+0.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+0.3 · 2 players

UCISmall

Frontcourt-2.6 · 3 players

Bench-1.3 · 3 players

LMUSmall

Bench+1.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUCI betterLMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UC Irvine

Guards

T. Isaac27 minN. Cooper25 min · TRJ. Jester16 minB. Egbo4 minL. RedfieldNewT. LeeNew

Forwards

H. Carrington17 minE. Chol17 minM. HodgesNewP. SpeesNewD. BenthoNew

Centers

N. Emeneke8 minO. Rioux2 min · TR

LMU

Guards

Z. Sensley25 min · TRA. Wright22 min · TRA. Thomas14 minJ. Miles10 min · TRM. Mosley7 min · TRC. Smith2 min

Forwards

C. Humphrey-Rembert31 min · TRA. McBride27 minD. Rivers20 min · TRJ. Porter17 min · TRA. Sigiscar16 min · TRG. Tupy2 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UCI74.2 #188

LMU72.2 #236

Points per possession

UCI1.04 #278

LMU1.04 #263

Pace (possessions)

UCI71.5 #51

LMU68.9 #185

Shooting

Effective FG%

UCI49.5 #268

LMU51.9 #152

3-point %

UCI33.6 #191

LMU34.8 #130

3-point attempt rate

UCI28.0 #359

LMU40.4 #162

Free throw rate

UCI36.0 #152

LMU31.1 #280

Possessions

Turnover rate

UCI17.8 #257

LMU17.4 #234

Offensive rebound rate

UCI30.9 #166

LMU26.7 #307

Assists per game

UCI14.8 #103

LMU12.7 #234

Defense

Points allowed

UCI69.4 #54

LMU72.7 #122

Points allowed per possession

UCI0.97 #7

LMU1.06 #103

Opponent effective FG%

UCI45.9 #9

LMU48.9 #60

Opponent 3-point %

UCI33.7 #167

LMU34.6 #225

Turnovers forced

UCI18.8 #56

LMU16.6 #178

Defensive rebound rate

UCI68.8 #213

LMU68.0 #258

Steals per game

UCI7.8 #51

LMU6.0 #236

Blocks per game

UCI5.8 #5

LMU3.9 #81

UCI		LMU
Scoring
74.2 #188	Points per game	72.2 #236
1.04 #278	Points per possession	1.04 #263
71.5 #51	Pace (possessions)	68.9 #185
Shooting
49.5 #268	Effective FG%	51.9 #152
33.6 #191	3-point %	34.8 #130
28.0 #359	3-point attempt rate	40.4 #162
36.0 #152	Free throw rate	31.1 #280
Possessions
17.8 #257	Turnover rate	17.4 #234
30.9 #166	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #307
14.8 #103	Assists per game	12.7 #234
Defense
69.4 #54	Points allowed	72.7 #122
0.97 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #103
45.9 #9	Opponent effective FG%	48.9 #60
33.7 #167	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #225
18.8 #56	Turnovers forced	16.6 #178
68.8 #213	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #258
7.8 #51	Steals per game	6.0 #236
5.8 #5	Blocks per game	3.9 #81

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UC Irvine

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 16-6 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UNLV72–75
Lvs Hawai'i64–71
Wvs CSU Northridge93–78
Wvs UC Davis79–69
Wvs Cal Poly107–85

A week or more of rest.

LMU

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs San Diego62–66
Lvs Seattle U66–71
Wvs Washington St67–66
W@ San Diego77–65
L@ Pepperdine89–90

A week or more of rest.

UC Irvine Anteaters vs Loyola Marymount Lions

What could decide it: UCI has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UC Irvine

LMU

UC Irvine has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UC Irvine

LMU