Towson Tigers at American University Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 22, 4:00 PM ETBender Arena · at American

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Towson and American
TOW	This season	AMER
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AMER 71–67 · win probability AMER 62%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 138.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOW has more of the edges

TOW 5, AMER 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

TOWBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOW 30.4, AMER 28.7. Allowed: TOW 29.3, AMER 42.1

AMERBig

TOW offense vs AMER defense

Offense 266th of 366 against a defense 122nd, on the model’s ratings

TOWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOW 36.0%, AMER 26.9%. Defensive: TOW 70.9%, AMER 70.6%

AMERBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOW 27%, AMER 96%. Transfers in: TOW 3, AMER 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

AMERBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOW 15.8%, AMER 15.6%. Forced: TOW 15.1%, AMER 19.2%

Context

Schedule so far

TOW has played the 140th-hardest schedule, AMER the 263rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

TOWSmall

AMER offense vs TOW defense

Offense 201st of 366 against a defense 113th, on the model’s ratings

TOWSmall

Three-pointers

TOW hits 29.4% and allows 30.9%; AMER hits 33.0% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 34.9% and 46.5% of their shots

AMERSmall

Home court

AMER at home. This season: AMER 0-0 at home, TOW 0-0 away

TOWSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOW 46.5 and allows 48.5; AMER 51.5 and allows 54.4

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: TOW plays 64.0 a game (360th fastest), AMER 66.7 (289th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	AMER -3.6	—
Total	—	138.2	—
Projected score	—	TOW 67.3 · AMER 70.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AMER -2.0	—
1H total	64.7	—
1H projected score	TOW 31.3 · AMER 33.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOW LWLWW	15-17	47%	5-8	—
AMER WWLLL	16-14	53%	8-7	—

Venue/role: TOW away; AMER home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOW UUOUO	12-20	38%	17-15
AMER UUOUO	15-15	50%	14-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOW	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
AMER	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Towson

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ PENN	W80–74WO
Nov 28	vs BUF	No recent meeting
Dec 14	@ HOW	No recent meeting

American

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs RAD	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs UML	No recent meeting
Nov 29	vs HAMP	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Towson

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-20

38% overs · avg −5.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

W L W L W W L W L L W L L L L W W W W L L W L W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

W W L L W W L W L L W L L L L W W L W L L W L W W L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2038%

U U U O U O O O U U U U U U O O U U U O O O U U O U U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsL-MD	W 67-56	-8.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 123
Nov 8	@HOU	L 48-65	+26.5	W +9.5	130.5	U 113
Nov 14	vsNORF	W 51-41	-13.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 92
Nov 18	@JMU	L 75-81	-3.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsURI	W 62-55	+2.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 25	vsLIB	W 72-69	+6.5	W +9.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 26	vsUCSD	L 73-87	+1.5	L −12.5	138.5	O 160
Dec 3	vsCOR	W 93-80	-6.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 173
Dec 7	@UCF	L 61-86	+9.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 147
Dec 16	@KU	L 49-73	+14.5	L −9.5	137.5	U 122
Dec 22	vsSHU	W 72-47	-13.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 29	@W&M	L 70-84	+1.5	L −12.5	157.5	U 154
Dec 31	@HAMP	L 62-63	-6.5	L −7.5	136.5	U 125
Jan 3	vsMONM	L 48-62	-8.5	L −22.5	136.5	U 110
Jan 8	vsHOF	L 67-78	-1.5	L −12.5	134.5	O 145
Jan 10	@NE	W 87-78	-2.5	W +6.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 15	vsCOFC	W 61-52	-3.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 113
Jan 19	vsDREX	W 59-58	-7.5	L −6.5	124.5	U 117
Jan 22	@ELON	W 72-59	+1.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 131
Jan 24	@NCAT	L 73-80	-7.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 153
Jan 29	vsUNCW	L 73-82	-1.5	L −10.5	135.5	O 155
Jan 31	vsHAMP	W 82-50	-8.5	W +23.5	131.5	O 132
Feb 7	@HOF	L 49-71	+4.5	L −17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 12	vsSTBK	W 69-57	-7.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 126
Feb 15	@MONM	L 71-72	+1.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 143
Feb 22	@DREX	L 62-68	-2.5	L −8.5	130.5	U 130
Feb 26	vsELON	W 58-56	-5.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 114
Feb 28	vsCAM	W 71-67	-4.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 138
Mar 3	@STBK	W 69-57	-1.5	W +10.5	137.5	U 126
Mar 7	vsHAMP	W 74-68	-7.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 142
Mar 8	vsCOFC	W 81-56	+3.5	W +28.5	138.5	U 137
Mar 9	vsHOF	L 65-68	+4.5	W +1.5	132.5	O 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L-MD

W 67-56

+2.5

HOU

L 48-65

+9.5

NORF

W 51-41

−3.5

JMU

L 75-81

−9.5

URI

W 62-55

+9.5

LIB

W 72-69

+9.5

UCSD

L 73-87

−12.5

COR

W 93-80

+6.5

UCF

L 61-86

−15.5

L 49-73

−9.5

SHU

W 72-47

+11.5

W&M

L 70-84

−12.5

HAMP

L 62-63

−7.5

MONM

L 48-62

−22.5

HOF

L 67-78

−12.5

W 87-78

+6.5

COFC

W 61-52

+5.5

DREX

W 59-58

−6.5

ELON

W 72-59

+14.5

NCAT

L 73-80

−14.5

UNCW

L 73-82

−10.5

HAMP

W 82-50

+23.5

HOF

L 49-71

−17.5

STBK

W 69-57

+4.5

MONM

L 71-72

+0.5

DREX

L 62-68

−8.5

ELON

W 58-56

−3.5

CAM

W 71-67

−0.5

STBK

W 69-57

+10.5

HAMP

W 74-68

−1.5

COFC

W 81-56

+28.5

HOF

L 65-68

+1.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L-MD

W 67-56

−18.5

HOU

L 48-65

−17.5

NORF

W 51-41

−46.5

JMU

L 75-81

+15.5

URI

W 62-55

−23.5

LIB

W 72-69

+3.5

UCSD

L 73-87

+21.5

COR

W 93-80

+18.5

UCF

L 61-86

−1.5

L 49-73

−15.5

SHU

W 72-47

−26.5

W&M

L 70-84

−3.5

HAMP

L 62-63

−11.5

MONM

L 48-62

−26.5

HOF

L 67-78

+10.5

W 87-78

+21.5

COFC

W 61-52

−30.5

DREX

W 59-58

−7.5

ELON

W 72-59

−14.5

NCAT

L 73-80

+13.5

UNCW

L 73-82

+19.5

HAMP

W 82-50

+0.5

HOF

L 49-71

−17.5

STBK

W 69-57

−9.5

MONM

L 71-72

+4.5

DREX

L 62-68

−0.5

ELON

W 58-56

−30.5

CAM

W 71-67

−4.5

STBK

W 69-57

−11.5

HAMP

W 74-68

+9.5

COFC

W 81-56

−1.5

HOF

L 65-68

+0.5

over 12under 20avg −5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

American

30 games played

Straight up

14-16

47% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1647%

L W L L W L W W W L L W W L L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1453%

W W L W W L W L W L L W W W L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

O O O O O U O O O O U U U U O U U U O U U U O O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WAKE	L 74-88	+19.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsPENN	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 12	@GW	L 67-107	+17.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 18	@RUTG	L 71-80	+16.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 28	vsME	W 74-61	-7.5	W +5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsSIE	L 55-59	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsLONG	W 92-66	-5.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsDREX	W 75-73	-4.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 6	vsUMES	W 78-60	-10.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 138
Dec 18	@VCU	L 83-105	+19.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 188
Dec 22	@UVA	L 51-95	+27.5	L −16.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsL-MD	W 84-69	-8.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 153
Jan 3	@BU	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 126
Jan 7	@COLG	L 62-64	+5.5	W +3.5	148.5	U 126
Jan 10	vsHC	L 73-84	-8.5	L −19.5	137.5	O 157
Jan 12	vsNAVY	W 65-51	+2.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 116
Jan 18	@ARMY	W 78-67	-4.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 21	vsCOLG	W 70-66	-1.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Jan 24	@HC	W 76-67	-4.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 28	@L-MD	L 68-77	-4.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 31	vsLAF	L 65-67	-5.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 132
Feb 4	vsBUCK	L 59-60	-7.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 119
Feb 7	@NAVY	L 73-82	+4.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 155
Feb 11	@LEH	L 82-90	-1.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 172
Feb 14	vsARMY	W 75-63	-9.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 18	@BUCK	W 75-57	-3.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 22	@LAF	W 75-61	-3.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsLEH	L 73-78	-7.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsBU	L 65-68	-3.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 133
Mar 5	@BU	L 73-75	+1.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+5.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

−22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+5.5

SIE

L 55-59

−1.5

LONG

W 92-66

+20.5

DREX

W 75-73

−2.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

−2.5

UVA

L 51-95

−16.5

L-MD

W 84-69

+6.5

W 64-62

+3.5

COLG

L 62-64

+3.5

L 73-84

−19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

+16.5

ARMY

W 78-67

+6.5

COLG

W 70-66

+2.5

W 76-67

+4.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−13.5

LAF

L 65-67

−7.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−8.5

NAVY

L 73-82

−4.5

LEH

L 82-90

−9.5

ARMY

W 75-63

+2.5

BUCK

W 75-57

+14.5

LAF

W 75-61

+10.5

LEH

L 73-78

−12.5

L 65-68

−6.5

L 73-75

−0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+22.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

+22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+1.5

SIE

L 55-59

−23.5

LONG

W 92-66

+9.5

DREX

W 75-73

+10.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

+33.5

UVA

L 51-95

−7.5

L-MD

W 84-69

−1.5

W 64-62

−16.5

COLG

L 62-64

−22.5

L 73-84

+19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

−23.5

ARMY

W 78-67

−2.5

COLG

W 70-66

−10.5

W 76-67

+3.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−2.5

LAF

L 65-67

−10.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−22.5

NAVY

L 73-82

+20.5

LEH

L 82-90

+31.5

ARMY

W 75-63

−6.5

BUCK

W 75-57

−8.5

LAF

W 75-61

−5.5

LEH

L 73-78

+10.5

L 65-68

−7.5

L 73-75

+6.5

over 15under 15avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

American has the better starters

Position by position: Towson 1, American 3, even 1

TowsonBetterAmerican

G B. Roseborough TR11.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 50

TOWSmall

G W. Nausadis7.5 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 25

G J. Womack6.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 61

AMERBig

G M. Collins13.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 97

G C. Ndefo2.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32

AMERSmall

F G. Jones12.4 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 55

F C. Embeya3.5 pts · 5.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 37

Even

F M. Mayock8.4 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 36

F D. Badalau TR3.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32

AMERSmall

F J. Iturbe10.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 55

TowsonBetterAmerican

TOW offense266th of 366 · -8.1

AMERBig

AMER defense122nd of 366 · -2.1

TOW defense113th of 366 · -1.4

TOWSmall

AMER offense201st of 366 · -6.3

Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players

AMERSmall

Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.4 · 3 players

Bench-0.1 · 2 players

TOWSmall

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOW betterAMER betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Towson

Guards

B. Roseborough28 min · TRJ. Womack19 minC. Ndefo12 minZ. Stanford5 min · TRR. Skerry2 minC. DoerrNew

Forwards

C. Embeya21 minD. Badalau13 min · TRA. AtkinsonNewB. HolmesNewD. KirkNew

American

Guards

W. Nausadis23 minM. Collins22 minK. Sebastian22 minD. Hogans6 minJ. Anderson2 minM. Casey1 min

Forwards

G. Jones31 minM. Mayock29 minJ. Iturbe26 minC. McDonald18 minC. Eagan11 minN. JonesNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOW67.1 #332

AMER72.0 #242

Points per possession

TOW1.05 #256

AMER1.08 #190

Pace (possessions)

TOW64.0 #360

AMER66.7 #289

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOW46.5 #345

AMER51.5 #169

3-point %

TOW29.4 #349

AMER33.0 #235

3-point attempt rate

TOW34.9 #277

AMER46.5 #39

Free throw rate

TOW30.4 #299

AMER28.7 #335

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOW15.8 #128

AMER15.6 #110

Offensive rebound rate

TOW36.0 #24

AMER26.9 #299

Assists per game

TOW9.5 #364

AMER12.5 #248

Defense

Points allowed

TOW66.4 #18

AMER72.7 #124

Points allowed per possession

TOW1.04 #73

AMER1.09 #200

Opponent effective FG%

TOW48.5 #49

AMER54.4 #313

Opponent 3-point %

TOW30.9 #33

AMER35.5 #283

Turnovers forced

TOW15.1 #271

AMER19.2 #40

Defensive rebound rate

TOW70.9 #117

AMER70.6 #127

Steals per game

TOW5.8 #253

AMER7.3 #100

Blocks per game

TOW3.3 #175

AMER1.4 #363

TOW		AMER
Scoring
67.1 #332	Points per game	72.0 #242
1.05 #256	Points per possession	1.08 #190
64.0 #360	Pace (possessions)	66.7 #289
Shooting
46.5 #345	Effective FG%	51.5 #169
29.4 #349	3-point %	33.0 #235
34.9 #277	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #39
30.4 #299	Free throw rate	28.7 #335
Possessions
15.8 #128	Turnover rate	15.6 #110
36.0 #24	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #299
9.5 #364	Assists per game	12.5 #248
Defense
66.4 #18	Points allowed	72.7 #124
1.04 #73	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #200
48.5 #49	Opponent effective FG%	54.4 #313
30.9 #33	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #283
15.1 #271	Turnovers forced	19.2 #40
70.9 #117	Defensive rebound rate	70.6 #127
5.8 #253	Steals per game	7.3 #100
3.3 #175	Blocks per game	1.4 #363

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Towson

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Hofstra65–68
Wvs Charleston81–56
Wvs Hampton74–68
W@ Stony Brook69–57
Wvs Campbell71–67

A week or more of rest.

American

14-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Boston U73–75
Lvs Boston U65–68
Lvs Lehigh73–78
W@ Lafayette75–61
W@ Bucknell75–57

A week or more of rest.

Towson Tigers at American University Eagles

What could decide it: TOW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Towson

American

American has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Towson

American