1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 21
  3. CAN vs UALB
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Canisius Golden Griffins vs UAlbany Great Danes

Koessler Athletic Center · Neutral site
#359CANCanisius
vs
#301UALBUAlbany
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CANThis seasonUALB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UALB 72–67 · win probability UALB 67%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 139.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UALB has more of the edges

CAN 2, UALB 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CANSmall
Three-pointers
CAN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%; UALB hits 32.6% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 39.5% and 37.6% of their shots
UALBSmall
CAN offense vs UALB defense
Offense 358th of 366 against a defense 259th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CAN has played the 337th-hardest schedule, UALB the 260th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UALBSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CAN 1%, UALB 38%. Transfers in: CAN 6, UALB 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UALBSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CAN 46.3 and allows 52.2; UALB 51.4 and allows 53.2
CANSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CAN 31.4, UALB 24.9. Allowed: CAN 35.2, UALB 35.7
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CAN 19.6%, UALB 18.5%. Forced: CAN 16.0%, UALB 15.8%
Context
Tempo
About 65 possessions: CAN plays 64.6 a game (353rd fastest), UALB 65.6 (324th). Faster games mean more points
Even
UALB offense vs CAN defense
Offense 313th of 366 against a defense 321st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CAN 29.3%, UALB 32.7%. Defensive: CAN 70.2%, UALB 67.6%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UALB -4.9—
Total—139.4—
Projected score—CAN 67.2 · UALB 72.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUALB -2.8—
1H total65.2—
1H projected scoreCAN 31.2 · UALB 34—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UAlbany has the better starters

Position by position: Canisius 0, UAlbany 1, even 4
CanisiusBetterUAlbany
G V. Sigona TR7.5 pts · 1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 22
Even
G A. Fall9.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 27
G M. Wilson TR4.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 18
UALBSmall
G Z. Matulu9.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 48
G D. Winters TR1.6 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
G P. Santos TR6.9 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51
F P. Ryan TR6.8 pts · 4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 7
Even
G M. Rose2.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 1
F C. Efinda TR4.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8
Even
F B. Michaels TR1.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3
CanisiusBetterUAlbany
CAN offense358th of 366 · -14.0
UALBSmall
UALB defense259th of 366 · -6.7
CAN defense321st of 366 · -8.3
Even
UALB offense313th of 366 · -10.0
Backcourt-3.5 · 3 players
CANSmall
Backcourt-6.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt-4.4 · 2 players
UALBSmall
Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player
Bench-0.4 · 2 players
Even
Bench-0.2 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestCAN betterUALB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Canisius
Guards
V. Sigona20 min · TRM. Wilson13 min · TRD. Winters6 min · TRT. Augustine2 minC. FrancisNewW. FowlerNew
Forwards
P. Ryan23 min · TRC. Efinda15 min · TRN. Deer3 min · TRN. FoutsNewW. TaylorNewA. RiakNew
UAlbany
Guards
A. Fall31 minZ. Matulu30 minP. Santos19 min · TRM. Rose15 minP. KountaNewO. EngenNew
Forwards
B. Michaels13 min · TRE. BussingNewP. MiovicNewU. GrahamNew
Centers
K. Webb3 min · TRC. SmithNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CANUALB
Scoring
62.2 #361Points per game68.7 #302
0.96 #349Points per possession1.05 #259
64.6 #353Pace (possessions)65.6 #324
Shooting
46.3 #348Effective FG%51.4 #182
33.3 #2133-point %32.6 #248
39.5 #1823-point attempt rate37.6 #220
31.4 #271Free throw rate24.9 #364
Possessions
19.6 #341Turnover rate18.5 #299
29.3 #226Offensive rebound rate32.7 #99
11.9 #293Assists per game12.8 #232
Defense
71.4 #87Points allowed74.5 #176
1.10 #228Points allowed per possession1.14 #302
52.2 #225Opponent effective FG%53.2 #275
33.0 #124Opponent 3-point %36.0 #302
16.0 #222Turnovers forced15.8 #228
70.2 #151Defensive rebound rate67.6 #277
4.8 #342Steals per game6.7 #153
2.6 #292Blocks per game3.9 #82
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Canisius

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Quinnipiac63–67
  • Wvs Merrimack67–62
  • L@ Mount St Marys47–68
  • W@ Rider72–66
  • Lvs Manhattan65–69

A week or more of rest.

UAlbany

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMass Lowell76–81
  • L@ Vermont56–69
  • Wvs New Hampshire84–61
  • Lvs Maine59–70
  • L@ UMBC62–66

A week or more of rest.