1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 16
  3. CARK @ OKST
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 16

Central Arkansas Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Gallagher-Iba Arena · at Oklahoma St
#240CARKC Arkansas
@
#45OKSTOklahoma St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CARKThis seasonOKST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKST 90–69 · win probability OKST 96%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 159.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKST has more of the edges

CARK 2, OKST 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
OKSTBig
OKST offense vs CARK defense
Offense 23rd of 366 against a defense 241st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CARK has played the 241st-hardest schedule, OKST the 60th. A record against a soft schedule means less
OKSTBig
CARK offense vs OKST defense
Offense 231st of 366 against a defense 99th, on the model’s ratings
CARKBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CARK 15.4%, OKST 15.7%. Forced: CARK 19.1%, OKST 15.7%
OKSTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CARK 31.2, OKST 39.4. Allowed: CARK 30.1, OKST 31.4
CARKSmall
Three-pointers
CARK hits 35.5% and allows 35.2%; OKST hits 33.9% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 48.7% and 35.5% of their shots
OKSTSmall
Home court
OKST at home. This season: OKST 0-0 at home, CARK 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: CARK plays 70.2 a game (105th fastest), OKST 74.8 (6th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CARK 62%, OKST 41%. Transfers in: CARK 2, OKST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CARK 28.8%, OKST 30.8%. Defensive: CARK 72.6%, OKST 69.7%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: CARK 54.0 and allows 54.9; OKST 52.0 and allows 53.1
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—OKST -20.6—
Total—159.4—
Projected score—CARK 69.4 · OKST 90

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadOKST -12.1—
1H total74.5—
1H projected scoreCARK 31.2 · OKST 43.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Oklahoma St has the better starters

Position by position: C Arkansas 0, Oklahoma St 3, even 2
C ArkansasBetterOklahoma St
G L. Moore9.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 28
OKSTBig
G K. Clary10.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.6 ast Score 78
G T. Robinson14.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89
Even
G K. Natt TR11.3 pts · 8.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 94
G C. McCormick9.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
Even
G J. Walker TR11.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 55
G H. Beauchamp4.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 8
OKSTBig
F J. Burks TR13.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 90
F M. Marable3.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 3
OKSTBig
F P. Fallah14.7 pts · 6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 97
C ArkansasBetterOklahoma St
CARK offense231st of 366 · -7.1
OKSTBig
OKST defense99th of 366 · -0.7
CARK defense241st of 366 · -6.4
OKSTBig
OKST offense23rd of 366 · +7.5
Backcourt-2.6 · 4 players
OKSTBig
Backcourt+4.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.0 · 1 player
OKSTBig
Frontcourt+7.7 · 2 players
Bench-1.8 · 4 players
OKSTBig
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCARK betterOKST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
C Arkansas
Guards
L. Moore30 minT. Robinson28 minC. McCormick23 minH. Beauchamp15 minO. Dehrmann3 minJ. Shulman3 min
Forwards
M. Marable21 minT. Anderson12 min · TRS. Saadi9 min · TRA. HoernerNew
Oklahoma St
Guards
K. Clary28 minK. Natt27 min · TRJ. Walker26 min · TRL. Bogavac24 min · TRR. Crotty10 minJ. MontonatiNew
Forwards
J. Burks28 min · TRP. Fallah26 minA. Grbovic20 min · TRB. Ahmed13 minM. Ragland6 minL. AllmondNew
Centers
J. Halaifonua20 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CARKOKST
Scoring
79.3 #77Points per game83.9 #21
1.13 #90Points per possession1.12 #110
70.2 #105Pace (possessions)74.8 #6
Shooting
54.0 #68Effective FG%52.0 #144
35.5 #893-point %33.9 #176
48.7 #213-point attempt rate35.5 #260
31.2 #278Free throw rate39.4 #70
Possessions
15.4 #92Turnover rate15.7 #117
28.8 #240Offensive rebound rate30.8 #169
16.0 #46Assists per game14.6 #113
Defense
76.0 #216Points allowed83.2 #349
1.08 #180Points allowed per possession1.12 #265
54.9 #328Opponent effective FG%53.1 #272
35.2 #262Opponent 3-point %36.0 #304
19.1 #45Turnovers forced15.7 #240
72.6 #48Defensive rebound rate69.7 #178
8.5 #18Steals per game7.1 #120
1.9 #351Blocks per game2.7 #285
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

C Arkansas

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Queens University Royals93–98
  • Wvs FGCU73–63
  • Wvs Bellarmine86–73
  • Wvs Queens University Royals84–79
  • W@ Austin Peay93–88

A week or more of rest.

Oklahoma St

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wichita St70–96
  • Wvs Davidson84–80
  • Lvs TCU88–95
  • Wvs Colorado92–83
  • Lvs Houston75–82

A week or more of rest.