1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 16
  3. ACU @ MOST
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 16

Abilene Christian Wildcats at Missouri State Bears

Great Southern Bank Arena · at Missouri St
#254ACUAbilene Chrstn
@
#251MOSTMissouri St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ACUThis seasonMOST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MOST 73–69 · win probability MOST 63%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 142.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MOST has more of the edges

ACU 2, MOST 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MOSTBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: ACU 47.5 and allows 56.5; MOST 51.1 and allows 52.0
MOSTBig
Three-pointers
ACU hits 31.0% and allows 40.9%; MOST hits 33.0% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 32.8% and 41.3% of their shots
MOSTSmall
ACU offense vs MOST defense
Offense 298th of 366 against a defense 219th, on the model’s ratings
ACUSmall
MOST offense vs ACU defense
Offense 275th of 366 against a defense 200th, on the model’s ratings
ACUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ACU 31.0%, MOST 32.0%. Defensive: ACU 70.9%, MOST 68.0%
MOSTSmall
Home court
MOST at home. This season: MOST 0-0 at home, ACU 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: ACU plays 69.2 a game (167th fastest), MOST 67.4 (261st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ACU 41.7, MOST 43.8. Allowed: ACU 53.5, MOST 40.2
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ACU 20.8%, MOST 16.7%. Forced: ACU 23.4%, MOST 16.9%
Context
Schedule so far
ACU has played the 183rd-hardest schedule, MOST the 180th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ACU 25%, MOST 25%. Transfers in: ACU 3, MOST 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MOST -3.9—
Total—142.6—
Projected score—ACU 69.3 · MOST 73.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMOST -2.2—
1H total66.7—
1H projected scoreACU 32.3 · MOST 34.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Abilene Chrstn 0, Missouri St 0, even 5
Abilene ChrstnBetterMissouri St
G N. Bolanga TR11.6 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.3 ast Score 38
Even
G T. Williams9.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 3.2 ast Score 34
G Y. Rivera7.4 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 41
Even
G M. Cunningham3.1 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 43
G I. Dye1.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Boone1.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 19
G E. Boisdur TR1.3 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F M. Gray NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F C. Hornecker5.2 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 48
No call
F C. Thompson NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
Abilene ChrstnBetterMissouri St
ACU offense298th of 366 · -9.2
MOSTSmall
MOST defense219th of 366 · -5.7
ACU defense200th of 366 · -5.0
ACUSmall
MOST offense275th of 366 · -8.4
Backcourt-3.6 · 4 players
MOSTSmall
Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-0.6 · 3 players
Bench-0.0 · 2 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestACU betterMOST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Abilene Chrstn
Guards
N. Bolanga34 min · TRY. Rivera25 minI. Dye6 minE. Boisdur6 min · TRT. Pons5 min · TRI. Neyhart3 min
Forwards
C. Hornecker16 minV. Yimga MoukouriNewS. RowleyNewW. Marie-AnaisNew
Missouri St
Guards
T. Williams31 minM. Cunningham12 minK. StubblefieldNewJ. BlairNewD. RoweNew
Forwards
C. Boone8 minM. GrayNewC. ThompsonNewN. RueyNewL. RolleNewI. MedinaNew
Centers
A. AcimovicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ACUMOST
Scoring
67.9 #313Points per game73.1 #223
0.98 #340Points per possession1.09 #169
69.2 #167Pace (possessions)67.4 #261
Shooting
47.5 #326Effective FG%51.1 #191
31.0 #3193-point %33.0 #236
32.8 #3183-point attempt rate41.3 #144
41.7 #34Free throw rate43.8 #12
Possessions
20.8 #356Turnover rate16.7 #180
31.0 #164Offensive rebound rate32.0 #124
12.5 #249Assists per game13.9 #155
Defense
73.9 #151Points allowed74.3 #166
1.07 #123Points allowed per possession1.10 #222
56.5 #352Opponent effective FG%52.0 #217
40.9 #365Opponent 3-point %34.4 #209
23.4 #3Turnovers forced16.9 #158
70.9 #113Defensive rebound rate68.0 #261
9.6 #4Steals per game6.7 #152
2.6 #298Blocks per game3.0 #215
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Abilene Chrstn

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Utah Tech74–80
  • Wvs Tarleton St84–78
  • Lvs UT Arlington57–64
  • L@ CA Baptist48–87
  • L@ Utah Valley67–74

A week or more of rest.

Missouri St

13-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-13 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisiana Tech66–69
  • Wvs Liberty77–69
  • Wvs FIU75–72
  • Lvs MTSU63–75
  • Wvs Western KY87–74

A week or more of rest.