1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 16
  3. COLU @ NU
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 16

Columbia Lions at Northwestern Wildcats

Welsh-Ryan Arena · at Northwestern
#170COLUColumbia
@
#59NUNorthwestern
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
COLUThis seasonNU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NU 83–65 · win probability NU 95%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NU has more of the edges

COLU 2, NU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
COLUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: COLU 36.0%, NU 28.1%. Defensive: COLU 72.8%, NU 65.3%
NUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: COLU 19.3%, NU 13.1%. Forced: COLU 15.1%, NU 17.5%
Context
Schedule so far
COLU has played the 169th-hardest schedule, NU the 36th. A record against a soft schedule means less
NUBig
NU offense vs COLU defense
Offense 67th of 366 against a defense 198th, on the model’s ratings
NUBig
COLU offense vs NU defense
Offense 163rd of 366 against a defense 42nd, on the model’s ratings
COLUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: COLU 61%, NU 24%. Transfers in: COLU 1, NU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
NUSmall
Home court
NU at home. This season: NU 0-0 at home, COLU 0-0 away
NUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: COLU 28.6, NU 33.9. Allowed: COLU 33.5, NU 34.8
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: COLU plays 67.8 a game (237th fastest), NU 65.5 (328th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: COLU 53.5 and allows 51.2; NU 51.7 and allows 51.0
Even
Three-pointers
COLU hits 35.9% and allows 35.2%; NU hits 33.0% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 37.5% and 34.0% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NU -18.4—
Total—148.4—
Projected score—COLU 65 · NU 83.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNU -10.8—
1H total69.4—
1H projected scoreCOLU 29.3 · NU 40.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Northwestern has the better starters

Position by position: Columbia 0, Northwestern 2, even 3
ColumbiaBetterNorthwestern
G M. Franklin9.4 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 48
No call
G L. Pratt TR17 pts · 1.7 reb · 3.3 ast Not ranked
G G. O'Keefe7.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 45
NUBig
F J. Karasinski TR21.7 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 97
G H. Sanders4.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 38
Even
F C. Smith TR11.9 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48
F M. Ritter6.9 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 21
NUBig
F L. McEldon TR11.7 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82
F C. Igoe8.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 72
Even
F O. Federiko TR8.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61
ColumbiaBetterNorthwestern
COLU offense163rd of 366 · -4.9
NUSmall
NU defense42nd of 366 · +2.7
COLU defense198th of 366 · -4.8
NUBig
NU offense67th of 366 · +1.8
Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players
NUBig
Backcourt+0.9 · 1 player
Frontcourt-1.1 · 2 players
NUBig
Frontcourt+7.1 · 4 players
Bench-1.9 · 4 players
Even
Bench-2.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCOLU betterNU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Columbia
Guards
M. Franklin24 minG. O'Keefe21 minH. Sanders15 minJ. Cunningham4 minD. VesseyNewN. RomanelliNew
Forwards
M. Ritter25 minC. Igoe20 minD. Langford11 min · TRR. Nweke8 minL. Coleman4 minN. ClarksonNew
Northwestern
Guards
L. Pratt33 min · TRA. Ciaravino22 minJ. West22 minA. Kostic12 min · TRD. Williams9 min · TRP. Gill4 min
Forwards
J. Karasinski30 min · TRC. Smith30 min · TRL. McEldon26 min · TRO. Federiko23 min · TRR. Soulis20 min · TRE. EschmeyerNew
Centers
S. GhaiNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
COLUNU
Scoring
74.9 #167Points per game73.2 #220
1.10 #130Points per possession1.12 #100
67.8 #237Pace (possessions)65.5 #328
Shooting
53.5 #83Effective FG%51.7 #159
35.9 #613-point %33.0 #232
37.5 #2213-point attempt rate34.0 #296
28.6 #337Free throw rate33.9 #213
Possessions
19.3 #332Turnover rate13.1 #6
36.0 #23Offensive rebound rate28.1 #260
15.0 #90Assists per game17.2 #18
Defense
73.5 #145Points allowed72.0 #106
1.09 #188Points allowed per possession1.09 #210
51.2 #168Opponent effective FG%51.0 #157
35.2 #258Opponent 3-point %33.4 #145
15.1 #282Turnovers forced17.5 #120
72.8 #42Defensive rebound rate65.3 #332
5.7 #270Steals per game5.8 #256
3.0 #235Blocks per game3.6 #131
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Columbia

14-12 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Harvard71–81
  • Lvs Yale54–60
  • Wvs Brown80–62
  • Lvs Dartmouth63–64
  • W@ Princeton75–65

A week or more of rest.

Northwestern

15-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue68–81
  • Wvs Indiana74–61
  • Wvs Penn State76–66
  • L@ Minnesota66–67
  • Lvs Purdue66–70

A week or more of rest.